[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力设备 科润智控（834062） 证券分析师 朱洁羽 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：25 年变压器需 求旺盛，公司业绩有望高增 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,004 | 1,348 | 1,840 | 2,359 | 2,962 | | 同比（%） | 15.43 | 34.29 | 36.54 | 28.21 | 25.56 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 73.03 | 42.86 | 84.44 | 123.08 | 168.03 | | 同比（%） | 26.47 | (41.31) | 97.00 | 45.76 | 36.53 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.66 | 0.90 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22. ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·医疗器械 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 赵骁翔 执业证书：S0600524120003 九安医疗（002432） 2024 及 2025Q1 业绩点评：品牌渠道优势显 著，慢病 O+O 有望打开第二增长曲线 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,231 | 2,592 | 2,809 | 3,468 | 3,542 | | 同比（%） | (87.72) | (19.77) | 8.37 | 23.46 | 2.13 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,252 | 1,669 | 1,449 | 1,646 | 1,667 | | 同比（%） | (92.19) | 33.33 | (13.18) | 13.63 | 1.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250506 从微观出发的风格轮动月度跟踪 202505 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的风格轮动月度 跟踪 202504》 2025-03-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 风格轮动模型简介：本模型从基础风格因子估值、市值、波动率、动量 出发，逐步构造风格择时+打分体系。首先基于 80 个基础微观指标，构 造 640 个微观特征。进一步通过常用指数作为风格股票池取代风格因子 的绝对比例划分，构造新的风格收益作为标签。使用随机森林模型对单 个风格进行择时，并得到每种风格的当期得分。根据择时结果与打分结 果，综合构造月频风格轮动模型。 ◼ 风格轮动策略绩效：以 2014/01/01-2025/04/30 为回测 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D investment and has initiated its first overseas registration clinical trial for its core product BL-B01D1 [7] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to the absence of large intellectual property licensing income that was recognized in the same period last year [7] - BL-B01D1 has over 40 ongoing clinical studies, with several in Phase III trials, indicating strong potential for becoming a standard treatment for various cancers [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.018 billion for 2025, with growth expected in subsequent years, reflecting the potential of its innovative products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 561.87 million, with a significant increase to 5,822.72 million in 2024, followed by a decrease to 2,018 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of 780.50 million in 2023, with a recovery to a profit of 3,707.51 million in 2024, followed by further losses in the subsequent years [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be (1.95) in 2023, improving to 9.25 in 2024, but declining again in the following years [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The overall revenue scale continues to grow, with outpatient revenue increasing at a faster pace. The company's strength in comprehensive cancer treatment is continuously enhancing. In 2024, total revenue is projected to be 4.446 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.0%. The main hospital business revenue is expected to reach 4.322 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its treatment projects, particularly in oncology, improving treatment methods, and enhancing management efficiency. By the end of 2024, the company completed 96,993 surgeries, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with surgical revenue growing by 21.2% [3]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to unexpected impacts from uncollected medical insurance income and the company's self-built planning. The expected net profit for 2027 is projected at 891 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12/11/9 times [4]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 4.446 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.04%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 598.26 million yuan, a decrease of 12.40% year-on-year [9]. - The company has been expanding its physician scale and increasing patient visits, with approximately 4.5 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [9]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a projected EPS of 0.97 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 13.84 [10].

Core Insights - Both China and the US have signaled a potential easing of tariffs, with China indicating a willingness to negotiate and US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing optimism about reaching an agreement, alleviating market anxiety [2][3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings, with Microsoft exceeding expectations with Q1 revenue of $70.7 billion and net profit of $25.82 billion, while Meta's revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 35% to $16.644 billion, helping to ease market fears [2][3] - The US job market remains robust, with April non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and the U3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, while the broader U6 unemployment rate fell to 7.8% [3][4] Market Performance - Developed markets rose by 2.9% and emerging markets by 3.3% during the week, with the S&P 500 index achieving its longest winning streak since 2004, driven by tariff negotiations, strong tech earnings, and a stable job market [5][6] - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, closing above 22,500, primarily due to the easing of external risks related to US-China tariffs and strong performance from US tech stocks [6][7] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed signs of stagnation, with Q1 GDP growth at -0.3%, marking the first negative growth since 2022, primarily due to net exports dragging down performance [3][4] - The April non-farm employment data indicated resilience in the job market, which may raise the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term [4][5] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the US stock market may continue to experience volatility in the short term, but a return to a focus on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience is expected in the medium to long term [4][5] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains, particularly as inflation continues to decline and unemployment rates may rise, which could improve liquidity conditions supporting the stock market [4][5]

证券研究报告 2025年石化行业中期策略： 石化产业链利润重塑 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 油价观点 2 ◼ 1、原油需求短期增长延续，长期看达峰尚需时日。短期来看：美国关税将影响全球贸易，进而影响原油需求。长 期来看：海外原油需求达峰时间延后，中国原油需求达峰时间提前。海外新能源车渗透速度低于预期，全球成品 油需求达峰时间预计从2029年推迟到2031年，全球原油需求达峰时间预计从2032年推迟到2034年。中国新能源 车渗透率超预期，中国成品油达峰时间提前至2025年，中国原油需求达峰时间从2030年提前至2027年。 ◼ 2、原油供给出现扰动，OPEC+通过减产来托底油价的作用减弱。现阶段国际油气公司能源转型放缓，重新重视 传统能源。而通过新勘探油气田来增产较为困难，国际巨头多通过收并购实现产量增长。分国别来看，美国本土 页岩油增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that revenue and profit continue to be under pressure, but overseas new contracts remain strong [7] - The macroeconomic environment is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for increased fiscal support and improved financing conditions, which may benefit infrastructure investment [7] - The company is expected to see a recovery in valuation due to its status as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 249.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [7] - The revenue breakdown by business for Q1 shows infrastructure construction at 216.8 billion yuan (-8.0% YoY), design consulting at 4.7 billion yuan (-2.2% YoY), equipment manufacturing at 6.2 billion yuan (-5.8% YoY), real estate development at 6.7 billion yuan (+59.5% YoY), and other businesses at 14.9 billion yuan (+3.2% YoY) [7] - The overall gross margin remained stable at 8.5%, with slight declines in traditional business margins offset by higher margins in design consulting and real estate [7] Order and Contract Summary - The company signed new contracts worth 560.1 billion yuan in Q1, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from overseas contracts, which increased by 33.4% [7] - As of the end of Q1, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to 7,234.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2026 is 28.0 billion yuan and 28.5 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 29.1 billion yuan [7] - The report emphasizes that the company’s valuation remains at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its R&D investment and has initiated its first overseas registration clinical trial for its core product BL-B01D1 [7] - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 revenue and net profit due to the absence of large intellectual property licensing income, which was present in the same period last year [7] - BL-B01D1 has over 40 ongoing clinical studies, with several in advanced stages, indicating strong potential for future growth and market entry [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.018 billion for 2025, with projections of 2.035 billion and 2.541 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 561.87 million, with a significant increase to 5,822.72 million in 2024, followed by a decrease to 2,018.00 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of 780.50 million in 2023, with a recovery to a profit of 3,707.51 million in 2024, followed by further losses in subsequent years [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be (1.95) in 2023, improving to 9.25 in 2024, and then declining to (1.34) in 2025 [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 114.72 billion, with a circulating A-share market value of about 29.44 billion [5]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·计算机 微软（MSFT） FY25Q3 业绩点评：业绩好于预期，继续看 好云业务快速增长 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 211,915 | 245,122 | 278,960 | 314,772 | 355,067 | | 同比（%） | 6.88 | 15.67 | 13.80 | 12.84 | 12.80 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 72,361 | 88,136 | 99,117 | 117,414 | 135,259 | | 同比（%） | -0.52 | 21.80 | 12.46 | 18.46 | 15.20 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 9.73 | 11.86 | 13.33 | 15.79 | 18.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 44.72 | 36.71 | 32.65 | 27.56 | ...