证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251013 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202510 2025 年 10 月 13 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 ◼ 2025 年 10 月最新持仓行业为：基础化工、医药生物、建筑材料、银行、 煤炭、电子。 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/09/30 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.10%，年 化波动率为 10.84%，信息比率为 1.95，月度胜率为 72.36%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.36%， 年化波动率为 6.57%，信息比率为 1.58，月度胜率 69.92%，历史最大回 撤为 9.36%。 ◼ 9 月模型多空收益统计：在申万一级 31 个行业中，根据五维度综合评 分等分为六组，评分最高的为多头组。2025 年 9 月份多头组合收益率为 2.00 ...

- Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model uses a two-stage approach to construct the expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution, and the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening, and the selection is made from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to construct the expected high dividend portfolio. The portfolio holds 30 stocks each period and rebalances monthly[3][8] - Model Construction Process: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to form the candidate stock pool[13] 2. Exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (i.e., the top 20% of stocks with the highest 21-day cumulative gains) from the stock pool[13] 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (i.e., stocks with a negative year-on-year growth rate of quarterly net profit)[13] 4. Rank the remaining stocks in the stock pool by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield to construct the portfolio equally weighted[9] - Model Evaluation: The model's historical performance is outstanding, with a cumulative return of 358.90% and a cumulative excess return of 107.44% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index. The annualized excess return is 8.87%, with a maximum rolling one-year drawdown of only 12.26% and a monthly excess win rate of 60.19%[11] Model Backtest Results - Expected High Dividend Portfolio, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14] - Best performing stocks in September 2025: CITIC Special Steel (3.81%), Yutong Bus (-0.35%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (-1.75%), Shuanghui Development (-1.90%)[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed by predicting dividend distribution using the method of dividend distribution combined with fundamental indicators. Two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening[14] - Factor Construction Process: 1. Calculate the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution[8] 2. Predict and calculate the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators[8] - Factor Evaluation: The factor is used to assist in screening and constructing the expected high dividend portfolio, which has shown outstanding historical performance[3][8] Factor Backtest Results - Expected Dividend Yield Factor, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Views - The construction PMI slightly rebounded to 49.3% in September, indicating a minor improvement in the industry's economic sentiment. The new orders index rose to 42.2%, and the business activity expectation index increased to 52.4%, reflecting an alleviation of pressure on new orders and a recovery in business expectations [2][11][16] - Despite ongoing pressure on revenue and profits in the construction sector, cash flow has improved. The report highlights that while infrastructure and real estate investments remain weak, there is potential for increased support from steady growth policies and major infrastructure projects [2][11] - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Communications Construction Company, China Power Construction Company, and China Railway Group, as they are expected to see valuation recovery [2][11] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that in the first half of 2025, China's overseas contracting engineering business saw a year-on-year revenue growth of 9.3% and a new contract signing growth of 13.7%, with significant growth in contracts signed in Belt and Road Initiative countries [3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new investment opportunities in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from international semiconductor giants and cloud service providers [3][12] - The report also highlights the completion of 102 major transportation projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to release substantial physical workload and benefit related engineering and material demand [22] Weekly Market Review - The construction and decoration sector experienced a weekly increase of 2.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which saw declines of -0.51% and -0.36%, respectively [26] - Notable gainers in the sector included Guanzhong Ecology, China Nuclear Engineering, and Xinjiang Communications Construction, while laggards included Hainan Development and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) [1] Core Views - Hong Kong Travel plans to spin off its tourism real estate assets to focus on its core profitable business, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce debt levels [7] - The company anticipates a loss of HKD 160 million due to the spin-off, primarily from the reclassification of cumulative exchange differences related to the tourism real estate business [7] - The projected net profit for the years 2025-2027 is estimated at HKD 273.34 million, HKD 415.64 million, and HKD 597.04 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 20, and 14 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 4,494 million, with a year-on-year growth of 48.22%, and is expected to reach HKD 5,559 million by 2027 [1][8] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be HKD 239.55 million, recovering from a loss in the previous year, with significant growth anticipated in the following years [1][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from HKD 0.04 in 2023 to HKD 0.11 by 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 4.44% increase in the week from October 3 to October 10, ranking first among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment rose by 5.35%, while precious metals also saw significant gains [1][15]. - The report highlights that the ongoing decline in real interest rates, coupled with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, has heightened risk aversion, leading to new highs in precious metals [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.08 percentage points [15]. - The industrial metals sector saw a 5.35% increase, while precious metals rose by 4.00% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of October 10, LME copper closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose to ¥85,910 per ton, up 3.37% [2][31]. Supply issues persist, with Freeport indicating a reduction of approximately 470,000 tons due to an incident at Grasberg [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,746 per ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,980 per ton, up 1.45% [3][35]. Social inventory increased by 7.71% to 642,500 tons, indicating potential short-term pressure on prices [3][37]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,985 per ton, down 1.52%, while SHFE zinc rose to ¥22,270 per ton, up 2.04% [39]. Inventory levels fluctuated, with LME inventory decreasing by 4.65% [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,350 per ton, down 4.85%, while SHFE tin rose to ¥286,350 per ton, up 4.10% [45]. Supply constraints from Indonesia are tightening the market [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,035.50 per ounce, up 3.15%, and SHFE gold at ¥901.56 per gram, up 5.48% [4][48]. The report notes that the downtrend in real interest rates and ongoing fiscal pressures are beneficial for gold prices [4][48]. Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's consensus on interest rate cuts, which are expected to further influence the metals market [26][48]. The potential for renewed tariffs on Chinese imports adds uncertainty to the market dynamics [4][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The gas prices are stable across various regions due to sufficient storage in the US, progress in European storage, and marginal improvement in domestic demand [1][5] - The report highlights the gradual recovery of domestic gas consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% to 283.2 billion cubic meters in the first eight months of 2025 [24][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost optimization for gas companies and the ongoing adjustment of pricing mechanisms to stimulate demand [53] Price Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the weekly changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.9%, European TTF +0.9%, East Asia JKM +0.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.2%, and China LNG CIF -2.7% [10][15] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day [17] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas storage increased by 800 billion cubic feet week-on-week to 36,410 billion cubic feet, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [17] - European gas consumption in the first half of 2025 was 240.8 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [18] - Domestic gas consumption in China showed a significant improvement in August 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [24] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments have been gradually implemented, with 65% of cities having executed residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting companies such as New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy [53] - It suggests paying attention to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Energy Holdings [53]

Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to increased volatility in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, although a long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be crucial for market sentiment, with potential for stronger recovery if policies exceed expectations [1] - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, driven by global monetary easing, the unstoppable trend of the AI industry, and anticipated improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in Q1 of the following year [1][6] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, developed markets have declined by 0.9%, while emerging markets have risen by 3.0% [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.0% [5][11] - The report notes that the materials sector led the gains, with significant inflows into non-essential consumer goods and information technology, while the telecommunications sector experienced outflows [5] Economic Data - Mixed macroeconomic data is presented, with positive indicators such as a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an ISM manufacturing index of 49.1, which is better than expected [3][6] - However, there are concerns with a 32,000 decrease in ADP employment and a services PMI drop to 50, indicating potential economic headwinds [3][6] Trade Relations - The report discusses the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which could further complicate market dynamics [2] - It also mentions China's retaliatory measures, including export controls on rare earth materials, which could impact various sectors [2] Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven sectors due to tariff concerns and market volatility, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings [6][35] - The report highlights that technology, materials, and healthcare sectors are seeing the most inflows, while utilities and financials are experiencing outflows [7][39] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include the US CPI on October 15 and unemployment claims on October 16, which will be critical for assessing economic conditions [8][42] - Significant corporate earnings reports are also expected, including those from major companies like Haikang Weishi and Cambricon [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the orderly promotion of green electricity direct connection development in Shandong and the official commercial operation of the "Ningdian into Hunan" project, which enhances electricity supply capacity [5][10]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during the peak summer season, recommending specific companies for investment [2]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of nuclear power, with multiple approvals for new units, and the recovery of asset quality in green energy [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 3.45% during the week of October 6-10, 2025, with notable gains in various sub-sectors such as thermal power and gas [10]. - The top-performing stocks included Dazhong Public Utilities (+21.1%) and Shanghai Electric (+18.7%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 5.47 trillion kWh, reflecting a 1.3% year-on-year increase, with varying performance across different energy sources [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in June 2025 was 389 RMB/MWh, down 1% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [35]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of October 10, 2025, the price of thermal coal was 705 RMB/ton, a decrease of 17.92% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was normal, with inflow and outflow rates significantly higher than previous years [54]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - Eleven new nuclear units were approved in 2024, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [2]. 3. Key Announcements - The report includes significant announcements related to the development of green electricity projects and the operational status of major power transmission projects [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, indicating a continued bullish sentiment despite a week-on-week decline in passenger car sales of 28.2% [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom to the dawn of automotive intelligence, with significant investment opportunities in AI smart vehicles and robotics [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in the automotive sector, particularly in the development of Robotaxi and Robovan applications, as well as the C-end vehicle sales perspective [4][5]. - The report anticipates a 4.1% year-on-year increase in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles, projecting sales of 23.7 million units in 2025 [51][52]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of October, the compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles reached 463,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 28.2% but a month-on-month increase of 28.4% [2]. - The best-performing segments included SW commercial passenger vehicles (+7.4%), while SW passenger vehicles and SW auto parts saw declines of 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively [2][4]. Industry Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with A-H shares ranking 26th and 17th respectively [8][9]. - Key developments included leadership changes at XPeng Motors and significant sales performance from Yutong Bus, which exceeded expectations [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, robotics, and traditional vehicle segments with strong market positions [4][5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include XPeng Motors, Ideal Automotive, and Yutong Bus, among others [69][70]. Market Forecast - The report forecasts a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies, with L3 expected to reach a 20% penetration rate among new energy vehicles by 2025 [54][55]. - The heavy truck market is projected to see a 24.9% year-on-year increase in new registrations, with total wholesale sales expected to reach 1.05 million units in 2025 [56][57]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including XPeng Motors, Ideal Automotive, and Yutong Bus, emphasizing their strong growth potential in the evolving automotive landscape [69][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability, particularly in the fiberglass segment, as supply pressures ease and demand remains resilient [6][15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand policies and the potential for recovery in the housing market, which could positively impact the demand for home improvement materials [17] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials - Fiberglass profitability is anticipated to improve in the medium term as supply shocks diminish and industry price stabilization efforts gain traction [15] - The cement market is experiencing a temporary decline in demand due to seasonal factors, but a rebound is expected as supply-side discipline strengthens [20][21] - The average cement price in China is currently 349.2 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and a significant drop of 53.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [21][22] 2. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the construction materials sector has shown resilience despite external uncertainties such as trade tensions, with government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption expected to support recovery [17] - The report emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline to manage supply and maintain profitability, particularly in the cement sector [14][20] 3. Market Performance - The construction materials sector outperformed the broader market indices, with a weekly gain of 2.66% compared to declines in the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [5] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [14][17] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and policy support [14][18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies involved in advanced materials and technology applications, particularly in the context of domestic demand recovery [6][17]