Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q2 non-net profit, which grew by 37% year-on-year, indicating that the performance inflection point has been reached [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue and profit in Q2 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 4.21 billion yuan, a 49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 780 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing in H1 2025 was 4.22 billion yuan, up 22.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by natural gas compression equipment [2] - The oil and gas engineering and technical services segment saw revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, an impressive 88.1% increase year-on-year, mainly benefiting from EPC deliveries in the Middle East [2] Margin and Cash Flow Performance - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 32.2%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.4%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The domestic gross margin was 27.1%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the delivery schedule of drilling and completion products [3] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 3.14 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 196% year-on-year, attributed to excellent collection quality from overseas clients [3] International Market Expansion - The company is entering a harvest phase in its overseas layout, with the Middle East and North America being key markets for growth [4] - The Middle East is experiencing urgent economic transformation needs, leading to increased natural gas extraction and expansion of the natural gas equipment and EPC market, where the company is gaining market share [4] - In North America, the company is well-positioned to tap into the large replacement market for fracturing equipment, supported by its performance advantages [4] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company at 3.03 billion yuan for 2025, 3.49 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.99 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [4]

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, providing insights into supply-demand rebalancing: the long depression in the late 19th century in Europe and America, the 1929 Great Depression, and Japan's capacity reduction in the 1970s and 1990s [1][11] - Key conclusions include that capacity imbalance can lead to a negative feedback loop lasting 20-30 years if uncontrolled, and government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [1][11] - Effective supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][11] Fixed Income - The report discusses the micro-guided convertible bond, which has a total issuance scale of 1.17 billion yuan, with net proceeds used for the construction of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin film deposition equipment [2][12] - The expected listing price range for the convertible bond is between 128.84 and 143.03 yuan, with a predicted subscription rate of 0.0036% [2][12] - The company, Micro-Guided Nano, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 71.44% from 2020 to 2024, achieving 2.7 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.74% [2][12] Industry Analysis - The report on Chuanfeng Power highlights the company's leading position in the all-terrain vehicle and motorcycle markets, with three major business segments experiencing rapid growth [3][14] - The investment recommendation maintains a "buy" rating for Chuanfeng Power, anticipating higher valuations due to its significant market position and growth potential across its business segments [3][14] - Jiuhua Tourism is positioned to leverage its unique cultural and natural resources, with projected net profits of 220 million, 240 million, and 270 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [4][14] Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology has secured a significant contract for drug discovery, with potential payments exceeding 5.89 billion USD, indicating strong future growth prospects [5][16] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 552 million, 924 million, and 1.503 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a forecasted return to profitability by 2027 [5][16] - Zhongchong Co., a leader in the pet food industry, reported a 42.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong growth in its proprietary brands [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [1] Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism is leveraging its unique Buddhist mountain resources to develop a regional cultural tourism complex, with a projected revenue of 764.44 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.64% [1][12] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in domestic tourism, with a significant increase in young visitors to temple tourism, which is becoming a new trend in emotional consumption [2][40] - The company plans to enhance its capacity through new projects and improved transportation, which will likely drive customer growth and revenue [3][56] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiuhua Tourism, established in December 2000, is located in the Jiuhua Mountain scenic area of Anhui Province and operates in various sectors including transportation, hotels, and travel agencies [12][17] - The company aims to build a regional tourism complex, with a projected revenue of 764.44 million yuan in 2024, where hotel, cable car, transportation, and travel agency businesses contribute 31%, 38%, 21%, and 8% respectively [20][12] Tourism Market Trends - The domestic tourism market is experiencing high growth, with a 20.6% increase in travel volume and a 15.2% increase in total spending in the first half of 2025 [40][41] - Young visitors, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are increasingly engaging in temple tourism, which is becoming a popular form of emotional consumption [48][49] Company Highlights - Jiuhua Mountain is one of China's four major Buddhist mountains, providing a stable flow of visitors due to its unique cultural and natural resources [56][58] - The company is investing in new projects, including a 326 million yuan cable car project and various hotel renovations, which are expected to enhance its service capacity and profitability [37][38] - Improvements in external transportation, such as the opening of the Pihuang high-speed railway, are anticipated to boost visitor numbers [56][58] Financial Analysis - The company forecasts a net profit of 217.09 million yuan for 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18 times [1][11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 indicate a steady growth trajectory, with net profits expected to reach 267.37 million yuan by 2027 [1][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chuanfeng Power, indicating a positive outlook on the company's growth potential in the all-terrain vehicle (ATV) and motorcycle sectors [6]. Core Insights - Chuanfeng Power has experienced significant growth since its listing in 2017, with a market capitalization increase of 13.3 times and an annualized return of 38% [3]. - The all-terrain vehicle market is approximately 950,000 to 1,000,000 units, with North America being the largest market, accounting for about 80% of global sales [3][69]. - The company has successfully expanded its product lines, including ATVs, motorcycles, and electric two-wheelers, with revenue contributions of 48%, 40%, and 3% respectively in 2024 [21]. - The report highlights the potential for Chuanfeng Power to double its all-terrain vehicle revenue by 2030, driven by new product launches and market expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chuanfeng Power has evolved from a parts manufacturer to a leading player in the ATV and motorcycle markets, with significant milestones including entering the ATV market in 2005 and launching its electric motorcycle brand ZEEHO in 2020 [11]. Stock Price Review - The stock price of Chuanfeng Power has been influenced by product cycles, external tariffs, shipping costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, with long-term growth driven by business expansion and product cycles [3][31]. All-Terrain Vehicles - The all-terrain vehicle segment has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% from 2019 to 2024, with revenue increasing from 1.83 billion to 7.21 billion yuan [3]. - Chuanfeng Power's market share in the U.S. increased from 5.8% in 2020 to 17.6% in 2022, capitalizing on supply shortages faced by competitors during the pandemic [3]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle segment has also shown robust growth, with revenue rising from 1.15 billion to 6.04 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 39% [5]. - The domestic market for recreational motorcycles has expanded significantly, with sales increasing from 140,000 units in 2020 to 400,000 units in 2024 [5]. ZEEHO Brand - The ZEEHO brand is projected to achieve sales of 600,000 to 700,000 units by 2025, with significant growth potential similar to that of other successful electric motorcycle brands [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates continued growth across all three business segments (ATVs, motorcycles, and ZEEHO), suggesting that Chuanfeng Power should command a higher valuation due to its leading market position [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Clock + Turning Point Improvement Method" Asset Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates macroeconomic risk factors with asset rotation strategies, leveraging the "investment clock" concept and improving turning point identification through a combination of momentum and phase judgment methods [8][23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Macro risk factors (e.g., economic growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and term spreads) are used to determine the macroeconomic state [8] 2. The "investment clock" framework is applied to link macroeconomic states with asset performance. For example, recovery and overheating phases favor equities and commodities, while stagflation and recession phases favor bonds and gold [9][15] 3. Turning points in macroeconomic factors are identified using a combination of momentum and phase judgment methods: - Momentum is calculated as: $$ Momentum_t = X_t - \frac{1}{3}(X_{t-1} + X_{t-2} + X_{t-3}) $$ where \( X_t \) represents the macro factor value at time \( t \) [16] - Phase judgment uses a 38-month sine wave to identify the current phase of macro factors, categorizing them into upward, downward, top, or bottom regions [21][22] 4. Asset scores are calculated based on the macro factor states, and risk allocation is adjusted accordingly. Initial risk weights are set as large-cap stocks: small-cap stocks: bonds: commodities: gold = 1:1:1:0.5:0.5. Positive scores double the risk allocation, while negative scores halve it [24] 5. Backtesting is conducted over the period from January 2011 to December 2023 [25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in terms of returns, risk control, and drawdown management, achieving nearly 10% annualized returns while maintaining low volatility and drawdowns [27] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Clock + Turning Point Improvement Method" Asset Rotation Model - **Total Return**: 242.45% - **Annualized Return**: 9.93% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.83% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.45 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.31% - **Win Rate**: 73.08% [27] 2. Benchmark Equal-Weighted Portfolio - **Total Return**: 83.59% - **Annualized Return**: 4.78% - **Annualized Volatility**: 10.99% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.43 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 20.63% - **Win Rate**: 55.77% [27] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Macro Risk Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors aim to capture various dimensions of macroeconomic risks, including economic growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and term spreads, providing a comprehensive view of the macroeconomic environment [8] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Economic Growth**: - Indicators: Industrial production YoY, PMI, retail sales YoY - Processing: HP filtering and volatility-weighted averaging - Interpretation: Positive values indicate economic expansion [8] 2. **Inflation**: - Indicators: PPI YoY, CPI YoY - Processing: HP filtering and volatility-weighted averaging - Interpretation: Positive values indicate rising inflation [8] 3. **Interest Rates**: - Indicators: Bond indices (1-3 years), money market indices - Processing: Equal-weighted portfolio construction and net value calculation - Interpretation: Negative values indicate falling interest rates and loose monetary conditions [8] 4. **Exchange Rates**: - Indicators: Gold prices (Shanghai and London) - Processing: Equal-weighted long-short portfolio construction - Interpretation: Positive values indicate currency depreciation [8] 5. **Credit**: - Indicators: Corporate bond indices (AAA) vs. government bond indices - Processing: Duration-neutral portfolio construction - Interpretation: Positive values indicate widening credit spreads and tighter credit conditions [8] 6. **Term Spreads**: - Indicators: Short-term vs. long-term bond indices - Processing: Duration-neutral portfolio construction - Interpretation: Positive values indicate widening term spreads [8] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macro Risk Factors (July 2025 State) - **Economic Growth**: Upward (Recovery phase) - **Inflation**: Downward - **Interest Rates**: Downward - **Credit**: Downward - **Exchange Rates**: Downward - **Term Spreads**: Downward [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has secured significant orders, indicating the initial formation of its business model, which is set to disrupt traditional paradigms in drug discovery [7] - The collaboration with DoveTree LLC, which includes substantial upfront payments and potential milestone payments, highlights the value of the company's AI and robotics technology in drug discovery [7] - The endorsement from a renowned Harvard professor suggests promising future growth for the company [7] - The company is identified as a rare player in the AI for Science sector, with its business model beginning to take shape, paving the way for future commercial orders and rapid revenue growth [7] - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards due to the unexpected scale of the collaboration, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 being 5.52 billion, 9.24 billion, and 15.03 billion respectively [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 266.43 million in 2024 to 1,502.54 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 62.62% [1] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 62.87 million by 2027, after losses in the preceding years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.38 in 2024 to 0.02 in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to shift from -17.48 in 2024 to 421.67 in 2027, indicating a significant change in valuation as the company approaches profitability [1]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250806 信息分布均匀度 UID 选股因子绩效月报 20250731 2025 年 08 月 06 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"波动率选股因子"系列研究（二）： 换手率分布均匀度，基于高频波动率 的选股因子》 2020-09-01 《信息分布均匀度 UID 选股因子绩效 月报 20250430》 2025-05-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 | 1. 信息分布均匀度 | UID 因子绩效回顾 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 风险提示 | 6 | 金工定期报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 信息分布均匀度 UID 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2014 年 1 月至 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250806 换手率分布均匀度 UTD 选股因子绩效月报 20250731 2025 年 08 月 06 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究 （四）：换手率分布均匀度，基于分钟 成交量的选股因子》 2023-12-28 《换手率分布均匀度 UTD 选股因子 绩效月报 20250430》 2025-05-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 换手率分布均匀度 UTD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）： 2014 年 1 月至 2025 年 7 月，换手率分布均匀度 UTD 因子在全体 A 股中，10 分组多 空对冲的年化收益率为 19.96%，年化波动为 7.44%，信息比率为 2.68， 月度胜率为 76.98%，月度最大回撤为 5.51% ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor Name: Stability of Turnover Rate (STR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The STR factor is designed to evaluate the stability of daily turnover rates. It aims to identify stocks with stable turnover rates, as opposed to focusing solely on low or high turnover rates. This approach addresses the limitations of traditional turnover rate factors, which may misjudge stocks with high turnover but significant future returns [1][8]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The STR factor is constructed using daily turnover rate data. - The stability of turnover rates is calculated, inspired by the Uniformity of Turnover Rate Distribution (UTD) factor, which measures turnover rate volatility at the minute level. - The STR factor is then adjusted to remove the influence of common market styles and industry effects, ensuring a "pure" factor signal [8]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The STR factor demonstrates strong stock selection capabilities, even after controlling for market and industry influences. It is considered an effective and straightforward factor [6][8]. Traditional Turnover Rate Factor (Turn20) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The Turn20 factor calculates the average daily turnover rate over the past 20 trading days. It assumes that stocks with lower turnover rates are more likely to outperform in the future, while those with higher turnover rates are more likely to underperform [6][7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - At the end of each month, the daily turnover rates of all stocks over the past 20 trading days are averaged. - The resulting values are neutralized for market capitalization to eliminate size effects [6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: While the Turn20 factor has historically performed well, its logic has limitations. Specifically, stocks with high turnover rates exhibit significant variability in future returns, leading to potential misjudgments of high-performing stocks within this group [7]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors STR Factor - **Annualized Return**: 40.75% [9][10] - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.44% [9][10] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.82 [9][10] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 77.02% [9][10] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.96% [9][10] - **July 2025 Performance**: - Long Portfolio Return: 1.29% [10] - Short Portfolio Return: -0.02% [10] - Long-Short Portfolio Return: 1.32% [10] Turn20 Factor - **Monthly IC Mean**: -0.072 [6] - **Annualized ICIR**: -2.10 [6] - **Annualized Return**: 33.41% [6] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.90 [6] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 71.58% [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microguide Convertible Bonds (118058.SH) started online subscription on August 6, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 1.17 billion yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net raised funds will be used for the construction project of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment [3]. - The current bond floor valuation is 99.08 yuan, and the YTM is 2.25%. The conversion parity is 100.6 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 0.62%. The bond floor protection is good, and the terms of the convertible bonds are standard. The dilution rate of the total share capital is 7.03%, with relatively small dilution pressure on the equity [3]. - It is expected that the listing price of Microguide Convertible Bonds on the first day will be between 128.84 - 143.03 yuan, and the subscription rate is expected to be 0.0036%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - The issuance and subscription schedule of Microguide Convertible Bonds is from August 4 to August 12, 2025, including steps such as publishing announcements, online roadshows, priority subscription for original shareholders, and online subscription [9]. - The basic terms of Microguide Convertible Bonds include a 6 - year term, AA/AA credit rating, a face value of 100 yuan, specific coupon rates from the first to the sixth year, and corresponding down - revision, redemption, and put - back terms [10]. - The raised funds will be used for the construction of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment, the expansion of a R & D laboratory, and supplementary working capital [11]. - The bond - related indicators show a pure bond value of 99.08 yuan, a pure bond premium rate of 0.93%, and a pure bond YTM of 2.25%. The equity - related indicators show a conversion parity of 100.63 yuan and a parity premium rate of - 0.62% [11]. 2. Investment Subscription Suggestions - By referring to comparable targets in terms of parity, rating, and scale, as well as recent listed convertible bonds and an established empirical model, it is expected that the conversion premium rate of Microguide Convertible Bonds on the first - day of listing will be around 35%, and the listing price will be between 128.84 - 143.03 yuan [14][15]. - It is expected that the priority subscription ratio of original shareholders will be 74.28%, and the online subscription rate will be 0.0036% [16]. 3. Analysis of the Underlying Stock's Fundamental Aspects 3.1 Financial Data Analysis - Microguide Nano is a global high - end micro - nano equipment manufacturer in the semiconductor and pan - semiconductor fields. Its products have achieved large - scale industrial applications in the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [17]. - Since 2020, the company's revenue has steadily increased, with a compound growth rate of 71.44% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the revenue was 2.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 60.74%. In Q1 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 510 million yuan and 84 million yuan respectively [18][19]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment, with an annual adjustment in product structure. The proportion of photovoltaic sales revenue in the main business revenue has slightly decreased, while the sales scale of semiconductors has gradually increased [20]. - The company's net sales margin has recently rebounded, the gross sales margin has decreased, the sales expense ratio has decreased, the financial expense ratio has recently increased, and the management expense ratio has recently decreased [24]. 3.2 Company Highlights - Microguide Nano is a leader in providing efficient battery technology and equipment. It emphasizes R & D, has formed 11 core technologies in the thin - film deposition technology field centered around ALD technology, and has achieved deep integration of scientific and technological achievements and the industry [29].