证券研究报告·海外公司点评·半导体 英伟达（NVDA） FY2025 三季报点评：H 系列支撑业绩持续高 增，期待 B 系列放量打开业绩新空间 2024 年 11 月 21 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------|--------------------------------|---------|---------| | [ 盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FT2027E | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | | 60,922 130,951 186,716 214,723 | | | | 同比（ % ） | 126% | 115% | 43% | 15% | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 29,760 | 69,079 | 100,500 | 118,056 | | 同比（ % ） | 581% | 132% | 45% | 17% | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万美元） | | 32,312 71,87 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 威士忌战略新品发布，新曲线渐入正轨 2024 年 11 月 21 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3240 | 3706 | 4183 | | 同比（ % ） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (0.74) | 14.39 | 12.88 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 779.96 | 895.91 | 1,022.37 | | 同比（ % ） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (3.64) | 14.87 | 14.12 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 快手-W（01024.HK） 2024Q3 业绩点评：DAU 突破 4 亿，业绩符 合预期 2024 年 11 月 21 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 94203 | 113525 | 127767 | 142799 | 156112 | | 同比 (%) | 16.13 | 20.51 | 12.55 | 11.76 | 9.32 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (13691) | 6396 | 15409 | 19402 | 23340 | | 同比 (%) | - | - | 140.92 | 25.91 | 20.29 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | (5,751) ...

Policy Analysis - Trump 2.0 focuses on tariffs, immigration, foreign policy, and economic policies, with immigration being the top priority[1][2] - Tariffs: Potential 10-20% on global imports and over 60% on specific economies, with GDP impact ranging from -0.35% to -0.88% from 2025-2028[2] - Immigration: Deporting 8.3 million illegal workers could lead to GDP deviations of -1.22% to -7.45% and inflation increases of +2.21% to +3.4% from 2025-2028[2] - Foreign Policy: Shift from military conflict to economic sanctions in the Middle East, and a pro-Russia stance in the Ukraine conflict[2] Policy Implementation - Policy execution sequence: Immigration > Ceasefire > Tax Cuts > Tariffs[3] - Market expects a 21% probability of imposing 40% tariffs on China within the first 100 days[3] - Immigration policy faces significant execution challenges, including logistical and state-level compliance issues[3] Economic Impact - Higher fiscal deficits: Trump's policies are expected to exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit, with projections showing a rise to 6.4% in FY2024[4] - Increased uncertainty: Trump's policies could impact U.S. GDP by -1.32% to +0.49% and inflation by +0.35% to +4.25%[4] - Labor market: Deporting illegal immigrants could disrupt the labor market, leading to wage growth and unemployment rate fluctuations[2] Fiscal Projections - U.S. federal debt is projected to reach 122.4% of GDP by 2034, driven by rising deficits and interest payments[151] - Trump's policies could push the debt-to-GDP ratio to 143% by 2035, significantly higher than the baseline projection of 125%[163]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 工信部加强行业产能规范引导，利好先进产 能&先进技术 2024 年 11 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 事件简述 11 月 20 日工信部对《光伏制造行业规范条件》和《光伏制造行业规范公 告管理暂行办法》进行了修订。 ◼ 从技术&产能&能耗等角度进行规范，引导行业健康发展 光伏行业面临阶段性供需失衡、产业链价格快速下滑、企业经营承压，工 信部出台的该项政策能够优先支持先进产能&先进技术，避免行业低水平盲目 扩张，我们认为是对供给侧倡导性的政策，虽然没有强势约束力，但会鼓励行 业健康发展。 从需求侧来看，我们认为参考历史上的领跑者计划，设定先进技术产品指 标、建设先进技术光伏发电示范基地，对行业走向高技术、高品质有重要作用， 也是淘汰落后产能的有效方式，2015 年国家能源局推行领跑者专项扶持计划， 单晶硅光伏电池组件转换效率达到 17%以上，多晶硅光伏电池组件转换效率 达到 16.5%以上，这就要求单晶硅和多晶硅电池的转化率要分别达到 20%和 18.5%左右。 ◼ 新建项目最低资本 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-11-21 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241114：10 月通胀：美联储落子何处？ 今年以来，美联储政策的天平一直倾向就业，大选后政策的重心开始转回 通胀。美国总统大选"尘埃落定"，红色浪潮席卷，"共和党横扫"下，特 朗普的一揽子政策（减税+加征关税+移民收紧+监管放松）抬升美国长期 通胀预期。考虑到这"四杆枪"可能加剧物价上涨的压力，因此无论是市 场还是美联储，都对 CPI 数据变得更加敏感，也让市场开始担心通胀加 剧，可能减少美联储利率的回旋余地。 2025 年，美联储怎么降？长期 通胀预期是答案。参考历史，作为回应通胀的恢复，美联储往往会推迟降 息的时机。因此如果美联储认为通胀放缓不够快，或者长期通胀预期上 升，降息节奏停滞时点或前移。但如果在特朗普就职后，迅速采取激进的 贸易行动，那么美联储很可能会像 2019 年第一次中美贸易摩擦期间那样 降息，这样的行为不仅受到特朗普的欢迎，同时对美联储政策独立性的 "怀疑"也可以减轻。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue slightly exceeded the upper guidance range, with profits surpassing expectations: Q3 revenue reached 4,991 million yuan, up 51.6% YoY, slightly exceeding the guidance range of 45-50% [2] - User subsidies narrowed, leading to significant improvement in sales expense ratio: Q3 gross margin was 63.4%, down 14.8 pct YoY, while sales expense ratio improved to 29.4%, down 9.1 pct YoY [2] - Transportation and accommodation businesses showed steady growth: Core OTA segment revenue increased by 21.6% YoY, with transportation ticketing and accommodation booking revenues reaching 2,027 million yuan and 1,378 million yuan, respectively, both hitting historical highs [3] - Monthly paying users reached a new historical high, with continued penetration in lower-tier markets: As of Q3 2024, annual paying users reached 232 million, up 3.4% YoY, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-tier-1 cities [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts adjusted upward: Expected 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company adjusted to 2,093.75 million yuan, 2,648.42 million yuan, and 3,265.09 million yuan, respectively [4] - EPS and valuation metrics: 2024E EPS is 0.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 18.81x [1] - Key financial ratios: ROE expected to improve from 8.78% in 2023A to 12.70% in 2026E, with net profit margin projected to increase from 13.06% to 13.56% over the same period [14] Business Segments - Transportation ticketing and accommodation booking: Q3 revenue for transportation ticketing and accommodation booking grew by 20.6% and 22.2% YoY, respectively [3] - Vacation segment: Q3 vacation segment revenue reached 979 million yuan, exceeding the company's guidance of 900-950 million yuan [3] Market and User Metrics - User engagement: Q3 average monthly paying users reached 46 million, up 5.0% YoY, with transaction volume of 72.8 billion yuan, up 2.4% YoY [3] - Lower-tier market penetration: Approximately 70% of new paying users on the WeChat platform in Q3 came from non-tier-1 cities [3]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） Q3 毛利率超预期，继续重点推荐 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 26855 | 30676 | 40106 | 90715 | 152484 | | 同比 (%) | 27.95 | 14.23 | 30.74 | 126.19 | 68.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (9139) | (10376) | (5622) | 1289 | 7353 | | 同比 (%) | (87.92) | (13.53) | 45.82 | 122.93 | 470.39 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | (4.81) ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阜博集团（03738.HK） 2024Q3 经营数据点评：收入快速增长，回 购彰显信心 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|------------|----------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 1443 | 2001 | 2510 | 3220 | 4169 | | 同比 (%) | 110.14 | 38.70 | 25.44 | 28.28 | 29.49 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 42.00 | (7.82) | 73.79 | 125.38 | 230.78 | | 同比 (%) | 285.22 | (118.61) | 1,043.85 | 69.91 | 84.07 | | Non-IFRS 净利润 ...