证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阜博集团（03738.HK） 2024Q3 经营数据点评：收入快速增长，回 购彰显信心 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|------------|----------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 1443 | 2001 | 2510 | 3220 | 4169 | | 同比 (%) | 110.14 | 38.70 | 25.44 | 28.28 | 29.49 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 42.00 | (7.82) | 73.79 | 125.38 | 230.78 | | 同比 (%) | 285.22 | (118.61) | 1,043.85 | 69.91 | 84.07 | | Non-IFRS 净利润 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Futu Holdings' 2024 Q3 performance continued its growth trend, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit [1] - The company announced its first special dividend, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [1] - Futu's user base and registered clients grew substantially, with strong contributions from overseas markets [1] - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards, indicating positive growth prospects [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue increased by 19.9% YoY to HKD 9.158 billion, with Q3 revenue up 29.6% YoY to HKD 3.436 billion [1] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 4.7% YoY to HKD 3.564 billion, with Q3 net profit up 20.3% YoY to HKD 1.313 billion [1] - Brokerage commissions increased by 31% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 4 billion, with Q3 commissions up 52% YoY to HKD 1.5 billion [1] - Interest income grew by 10% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 4.6 billion, with Q3 interest income up 13% YoY to HKD 1.3 billion [1] - Other income increased by 35% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 530 million, with Q3 other income up 52% YoY to HKD 210 million [1] Cost and Expense Analysis - 2024 Q1-Q3 operating expenses rose by 51% YoY to HKD 1.7 billion, with Q3 expenses up 43% YoY to HKD 630 million [1] - R&D expenses increased by 2% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 1.09 billion, with Q3 R&D expenses up 7% YoY to HKD 390 million [1] - Sales expenses grew by 79% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 950 million, with Q3 sales expenses up 48% YoY to HKD 380 million [1] - Administrative expenses increased by 11% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3 to HKD 1.04 billion, with Q3 administrative expenses up 18% YoY to HKD 310 million [1] User Growth and Market Expansion - Futu's platform users, registered clients, and funded clients increased by 14%, 23%, and 33% YoY respectively in 2024 Q3 [1] - The company added 154,000 new funded clients in Q3, a 138% YoY increase, with significant contributions from Hong Kong and Singapore markets [1] - Overseas markets, including Japan, Canada, Malaysia, and Australia, saw double-digit growth in funded clients in Q3 [1] Special Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Futu announced a special cash dividend of USD 0.25 per ordinary share or USD 2 per ADS, totaling approximately USD 280 million [1] - The dividend represents 8% of the company's equity capital at the end of Q3, with no expected hindrance to future growth [1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised upwards to HKD 5.03 billion, HKD 5.62 billion, and HKD 6.543 billion respectively [1] - The current market valuation corresponds to 2024-2026 PE ratios of 18.50x, 16.56x, and 14.22x [1] - The company's long-term growth potential is considered substantial, supported by its expansion into overseas markets and user base growth [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 金山软件（03888.HK） 2024Q3 业绩报点评：游戏收入超预期，办公 AI 商业化稳步推进 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------|--------|----------|----------|----------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7660 | 8547 | 10481 | 11927 | 13509 | | 同比 (%) | 19.86 | 11.74 | 22.82 | 13.80 | 13.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (6,048.19) | 483.46 | 1,484.81 | 1,841.89 | 2,239.48 | | 同比 (%) | (1,629.90) | - | 207.12 | 24.05 | 21.59 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·资讯科技器材(HS) 联想集团（00992.HK） FY2025Q2 业绩点评：业绩超预期，AI 布局 有望全面开花 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 61947 | 56895 | 66373 | 72295 | 77400 | | 同比 (%) | (13.50) | (8.16) | 16.66 | 8.92 | 7.06 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 1608 | 1011 | 1261 | 1467 | 1758 | | 同比 (%) | (20.79) | (37.15) | 24.78 | 16.33 | 19.87 | | EPS- ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 聚和材料（688503） 聚和材料 2024Q3 点评：下游排产放缓影响 出货，新产品积极开拓 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6504 | 10290 | 14235 | 15605 | 17339 | | 同比（ % ） | 27.94 | 58.21 | 38.33 | 9.62 | 11.11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 391.21 | 442.08 | 584.74 | 717.83 | 827.84 | | 同比（ % ） | 58.53 | 13.00 | 32.27 | 22.76 | 15.33 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.62 | 1.83 | 2.42 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q2 revenue growth was slightly below expectations, with a 5% YoY increase to RMB 2365 billion, missing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 2394 billion [1][18] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36 5 billion (YoY -9%), exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 356 2 billion [1][18] - Taotian Group's GMV showed healthy growth, with a 1% YoY increase in revenue to RMB 989 94 billion, driven by double-digit order growth [2][25] - International Digital Commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with strong growth in Choice and improved unit economics [2][31] - Local Living Services saw significant narrowing of losses, with continued growth in Amap and Ele me orders [2][31] - Alibaba Cloud achieved double-digit growth in public cloud products, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Business Performance Summary Taotian Group - Revenue increased 1% YoY to RMB 989 94 billion, with customer management revenue up 2% [2][25] - 88VIP members exceeded 46 million, with GMV growth driven by increased purchase frequency, partially offset by lower average order value [2][25] - EBITA margin declined 3 17 percentage points YoY to 45 04%, reflecting increased investment [2][25] International Digital Commerce - Revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 316 72 billion, with EBITA margin at -9 17% [2][31] - International retail commerce revenue increased 37% YoY to RMB 256 18 billion, driven by cross-border business growth, particularly AliExpress Choice [2][31] - International wholesale commerce revenue rose 11% YoY to RMB 60 54 billion [2][31] Local Living Services - Revenue increased 14% YoY to RMB 177 25 billion, driven by order growth in Amap and Ele me [2][31] - Losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency and business scale [2][31] Alibaba Cloud - Revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 296 10 billion, with public cloud products driving double-digit growth [2][37] - AI-related products achieved triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Cainiao - Revenue increased 8% YoY to RMB 246 47 billion, driven by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions [2][32] Financial Forecasts - FY2025/FY2026/FY2027 EPS forecasts maintained at RMB 8 09/8 76/9 48, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 10 0/9 3/8 6x [3][37] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 billion in FY2024A to RMB 1 194 600 billion in FY2027E, with a CAGR of 8 3% [1][44] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 80 009 billion in FY2024A to RMB 134 062 billion in FY2027E [1][44]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 吉利汽车（00175.HK） 2024 年三季报点评：Q3 业绩符合预期，品牌 合并提升战略协同 2024 年 11 月 20 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|---------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 148565 | 179846 | 250809 | 316050 | 344520 | | 同比 (%) | 45.63 | 21.06 | 39.46 | 26.01 | 9.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5260 | 5308 | 16816 | 13575 | 15988 | | 同比 (%) | 8.52 | 0.91 | 216.78 | (19.27) | 17.78 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 非银金融行业点评报告 大型宽基 ETF 批量降费，资本市场投资端改 革持续深化 2024 年 11 月 20 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 事件：11 月 19 日晚间，华夏、华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实、南方、华安等 多家基金管理人官网公告，将调降旗下大型宽基 ETF 管理费率、托管费 率。其中，管理费率统一调降至 0.15%，托管费率统一调降至 0.05%。 ◼ 证监会主席释放关键信号，投资端改革及公募费改持续深化：11 月 19 日，证监会主席吴清出席国际金融领袖投资峰会。回顾内地资本市场改 革发展情况时，吴清强调"五个突出"，即①突出支持发展新质生产力； ②突出提升上市公司投资价值；③突出加快推进投资端改革；④突出严 监严管，净化市场生态；⑤突出增强各方政策合力。针对突出加快推进 投资端改革，吴清表示，证监会稳步推进公募基金行业费率等改革，大 力发展权益类基金特别是指数化投资。权益类 ETF 规模今年已先后突 破 2 万亿和 3 万亿元大关，发展势头良好。 ◼ 大型宽基 ETF 批量降费，合计让利近 50 亿元：11 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2024-11-20 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20241114：10 月通胀：美联储落子何处？ 今年以来，美联储政策的天平一直倾向就业，大选后政策的重心开始转回 通胀。美国总统大选"尘埃落定"，红色浪潮席卷，"共和党横扫"下，特 朗普的一揽子政策（减税+加征关税+移民收紧+监管放松）抬升美国长期 通胀预期。考虑到这"四杆枪"可能加剧物价上涨的压力，因此无论是市 场还是美联储，都对 CPI 数据变得更加敏感，也让市场开始担心通胀加 剧，可能减少美联储利率的回旋余地。 2025 年，美联储怎么降？长期 通胀预期是答案。参考历史，作为回应通胀的恢复，美联储往往会推迟降 息的时机。因此如果美联储认为通胀放缓不够快，或者长期通胀预期上 升，降息节奏停滞时点或前移。但如果在特朗普就职后，迅速采取激进的 贸易行动，那么美联储很可能会像 2019 年第一次中美贸易摩擦期间那样 降息，这样的行为不仅受到特朗普的欢迎，同时对美联储政策独立性的 "怀疑"也可以减轻。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·资讯科技器材(HS) 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 2024 年前三季度业绩点评：业绩超预期，人 车家携手共进 2024 年 11 月 19 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 280044 | 270970 | 342200 | 395051 | 474200 | | 同比 (%) | (14.78) | (3.24) | 26.29 | 15.44 | 20.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2474 | 17475 | 19760 | 23174 | 27735 | | 同比 (%) | (87.21) | 606.34 | 13.07 | 17.28 | 19.68 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 ...