Economic Overview - In February, U.S. retail sales showed a slight rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.2%, but this was below market expectations of 0.6%[4] - January's retail growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%[4] - The largest category, automotive and parts sales, fell by 0.4% in February after a significant drop of 3.7% in January[4] Consumer Spending Trends - Durable goods and food service sectors continued to show weakness, with food service sales experiencing the largest decline since 2023 at -1.5%[4] - E-commerce rebounded from -2.4% in January to 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from the previous year[4] - Personal care retail sales increased from negative growth to 1.7%, while sports and apparel categories declined by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively[4] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts is expected to reduce overall demand and suppress business investment and durable goods consumption, leading to economic downturn risks[4] - Inflation uncertainty is rising, with long-term inflation expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with guidance suggesting two potential rate cuts later in the year[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XtalPi, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - XtalPi is positioned as an AI-driven innovative R&D platform with stable revenue growth, focusing on drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation services [1][2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its capabilities in drug discovery and automation [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (44% YoY) and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (73% YoY) [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - XtalPi's revenue is forecasted to increase significantly, with FY24E revenue at RMB 251 million and FY25E at RMB 434 million, reflecting growth rates of 44% and 73% respectively [4][16]. - The company has a diverse revenue stream from both drug discovery and intelligent automation, which are on stable growth trajectories [3]. Financial Position - XtalPi completed two financing arrangements in 2025, raising HKD 3.2 billion to strengthen its cash reserves and support future growth plans [3]. - The financial summary indicates a net loss reduction from RMB 1,906 million in FY23 to RMB 1,491 million in FY24E, and further to RMB 310 million in FY25E [4][16]. Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has a broad network of partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for traditional medicine R&D [2]. - XtalPi's partnerships with major firms like Microsoft China and JW Pharmaceuticals highlight its potential in biomedicine and new materials innovation [2]. Valuation - The target price for XtalPi is set at HKD 7.57 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for XtalPi, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [20]. Core Insights - XtalPi is leveraging its AI-driven innovative R&D platform to achieve stable revenue growth across its two core businesses: drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation solutions. The company has established strategic collaborations with leading pharmaceutical firms, enhancing its market position [9]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (+44% YoY), and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (+73% YoY) [2][9]. - The company has strengthened its financial position by completing two fundraising placements in 2025, raising HK$3.2 billion to enhance cash reserves and fund future growth initiatives [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from FY22 to FY26 is expected to be substantial, with a forecast of RMB 841 million by FY26, reflecting a growth rate of 93.8% YoY [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,491 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 86 million by FY26 [2][12]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 640 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 158 million by FY26 [12][15]. Share Performance - The current price of XtalPi is HK$ 6.68, with a target price set at HK$ 7.57, indicating an upside potential of 13.3% [4]. - The market capitalization of XtalPi is approximately HK$ 26.85 billion [4]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent Holdings with 10.9% and QuantumPharm ROC with 7.4% [5]. Partnerships and Collaborations - XtalPi has formed diverse partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for TCM drug R&D [9]. - The company is also working with Microsoft China on biomedicine innovations and has a joint venture with Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group to promote AI applications across different sectors [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$ 7.57 is derived from a DCF model, with a WACC of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the majority of the stocks listed, indicating a potential upside of over 15% within the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a basket of 23 long positions that achieved an average return of 8.5%, outperforming the MSCI China Index, which returned 6.3% [7]. - Among the 23 stocks, 4 recorded returns of 20% or more, and 11 exceeded the benchmark return [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Recommendations - The report includes several stocks with their respective ratings and target prices, such as: - Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of 24.50 and a current price of 19.00 [4]. - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) with a target price of 24.56 and a current price of 16.00 [4]. - Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of 126.68 and a current price of 99.80 [4]. - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a target price of 38.51 and a current price of 35.84 [4]. New Additions and Removals - New additions to the stock recommendations include Kuaishou (1024 HK) and Trip.com Group (TCOM US), both rated as "Buy" [5]. - Stocks removed from the recommendations include China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and NetEase (NTES US) [5]. Performance Review - The report indicates that the selected stocks have shown resilience and growth, with a significant portion outperforming the market index [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion, and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a share consolidation to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1% [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, reflecting a 3.7% increase [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 13.0% to RMB 12.1 billion in FY25E, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.69 [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is HKD 12.24, with a potential upside of 11.9% to the target price [3]. - The stock has shown a 26.2% absolute return over the past six months [5]. Business Segments - The traditional tower business is expected to face continued pressure due to low single-digit growth forecasts for domestic telecom operators, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth rates [7][1]. - The indoor distribution business is projected to grow by 14.0% and 11.6% in FY25E and FY26E respectively, driven by market opportunities [7]. - The two wings business, particularly the Tower Intelligence segment, is expected to see significant revenue growth due to projects related to national disaster warning and agricultural protection [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a stock consolidation plan to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1%, followed by RMB 104.4 billion in FY26E and RMB 108.4 billion in FY27E [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, with a net profit forecast of RMB 12.1 billion, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][10]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 13.3% increase over the past three months, although it has underperformed relative to the market by 7.5% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price adjusted to HKD 89.00 from the previous HKD 94.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of HKD 62.20 [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth remains resilient across various markets, with year-on-year increases of +23% in Hong Kong, +20% in Mainland China, +15% in Thailand, +15% in Singapore, +10% in Malaysia, and +18% in other markets, contributing to an overall expected NBV growth of 14% for 2025 [2][8]. - AIA has announced a new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 6.605 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.60 [8][9]. Financial Performance - The total market capitalization of AIA Group is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The company reported a total NBV of USD 4.712 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to slow down [7][8]. - The operating return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong financial health [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range, suggesting significant upside potential [8][11]. - The report highlights that the dividend per share is expected to increase by 10% to USD 1.31, with an annual dividend yield of 3.1% [7][8]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation based on relative and appraisal methods, with the potential for further upward adjustments as shareholder returns and value growth progress [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth shows resilience, with a projected increase of 14% year-on-year for 2025, despite adjustments in economic assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates in mainland China [2][8]. - A new share buyback plan of US$1.6 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's target price is adjusted to HKD 89.00, reflecting a potential upside of 43.1% from the current share price of HKD 62.20 [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The NBV growth rates for various markets are as follows: Hong Kong +23%, mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other markets +18% [2]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to US$6.605 billion in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach US$0.60 [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate is expected to reach 6% in 2025, combining dividends and share buybacks [7][8]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to US$1.31, with an annual dividend of US$1.75, reflecting a 9% increase [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The adjusted target price corresponds to a FY25E P/EV of 1.60x, indicating significant upside potential [11][12].

Macro Overview - The Chinese economy continues its moderate recovery, with most economic indicators in the first two months exceeding market expectations. Retail sales growth has slightly increased due to the expansion of the old-for-new subsidy program. Industrial output growth has slowed slightly, but fixed asset investment growth has accelerated significantly, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [4][5] - The Chinese government has been signaling policies to stabilize the stock and real estate markets and boost consumption, which may support ongoing economic recovery this year. However, as the effects of policy stimulus gradually weaken and trade war impacts become more apparent, the economy may face downward pressure again in the fourth quarter. The GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 5.1% in the first three quarters to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, with an annual growth forecast of 4.9% [4] Industry Insights Engineering Machinery Industry - The proposed €500 billion infrastructure investment plan by Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to be submitted to parliament for approval. The likelihood of passing has increased due to support from the Green Party. Companies like Weichai Power, which is a major shareholder of the European industrial vehicle manufacturer KION Group, are positioned to benefit from this plan. Additionally, Zhejiang Dingli and Sany Heavy Industry, which derive about 20% of their revenue from Europe, are also potential beneficiaries [4] Internet Industry - The retail sales data for the first two months of 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, an improvement from 3.7% in December 2024, driven by the nationwide old-for-new policy. Online retail sales of physical goods have also rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The market's expectations for increased stimulus policies are rising, and the next round of valuation reassessment in the industry may depend on the recovery of consumer sentiment. The report maintains a "buy" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com [5] Company Analysis Tmall (6110 HK) - The company is upgraded to "buy" with a target price of HKD 4.51, as the performance in the second half of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to improve. The forecast for the fourth quarter and the entire year is better than expected, with retail sales projected to decline by only a low single digit percentage. Factors contributing to this improvement include a better macro environment, strong performance from Adidas and outdoor brands, and good e-commerce sales [6][7] - For the 2026 fiscal year, the outlook is optimistic, with expected sales growth of 4% and net profit growth of 18%. The positive macro environment, reduced industry risks, and company-specific catalysts such as new product launches and improved brand support are key drivers [6][7] Hillstone Technology (1478 HK) - The target price is raised to HKD 9.25 based on an optimistic 2025 guidance due to upgrades in OIS/periscope and demand from automotive/IoT sectors. The company is expected to see a 241% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, benefiting from market share growth and product upgrades. The management maintains a positive outlook for high-end lens modules and automotive/IoT lens module orders [7] China Tower (788 HK) - The company reported a 4.0% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 97.8 billion for the 2024 fiscal year, in line with expectations. Net profit increased by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above expectations. The traditional tower business remains stable, while the DAS and dual-wing businesses continue to grow at double-digit rates. The target price is raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting a favorable valuation [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation [1][3] Core Views - The company's 2024 fiscal year performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 97.7 billion, and a net profit growth of 10.0%, amounting to RMB 10.7 billion [1] - The report highlights the stable performance of legacy businesses, while Distributed Antenna System (DAS) and Two Wings (smart towers and energy) segments continue to show double-digit growth [2][3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 13.7, based on a 4.0x FY25E EV/EBITDA, reflecting a higher valuation due to the company's efforts to enhance shareholder returns [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is reported at RMB 97,772 million, with a projected growth rate of 4.1% for FY25 and 2.5% for FY26 [4] - Net profit for FY24 is RMB 10,729 million, with expected growth rates of 13.0% for FY25 and 13.2% for FY26 [4] - The company announced a total dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for 2024, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [3] Business Segments - Tower business revenue, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, reached RMB 75.7 billion, growing by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - DAS revenue, accounting for 9% of total revenue, increased by 18% to RMB 8.4 billion, while the Two Wings segment, making up 14%, grew by 16% to RMB 13.4 billion [1][2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the DAS segment, projecting a revenue increase of 14.0% and 11.6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively [2] - The Two Wings business is expected to grow by 17.5% and 16.2% in FY25 and FY26, respectively, driven by new revenue from national disaster warning and farmland protection projects [2]