Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 25.2 times FY25 earnings [1][4][19]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to see a significant net profit increase of 130-145% year-on-year for FY24, reaching between RMB 17 billion and 18.2 billion, driven by the recovery in the global smartphone market and product upgrades across various segments [1][2]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends such as AI and foldable smartphones, as well as new orders in automotive audio systems from major clients like Xiaomi and Huawei [1][3][4]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in FY25, with a gross profit margin (GPM) target of 22-25% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY22 revenue was RMB 20.625 billion, with a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while FY23 revenue slightly declined by 1% to RMB 20.419 billion. For FY24, revenue is expected to increase by 35.2% to RMB 27.613 billion, followed by FY25 and FY26 with projected revenues of RMB 31.383 billion and RMB 34.183 billion respectively [5][23]. - Net profit for FY22 was RMB 821.3 million, which decreased by 37.6% year-on-year. In FY24, net profit is expected to rebound significantly to RMB 1.776 billion, with further growth to RMB 2.273 billion in FY25 and RMB 2.751 billion in FY26 [5][23]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises FY24-26 earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward by 1-4%, reflecting improvements in optical, acoustic, and MEMS sectors [1][19]. - The new EPS estimates for FY24, FY25, and FY26 are RMB 1.51, RMB 1.93, and RMB 2.34 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.9, 22.6, and 18.7 [5][19]. Market Position and Catalysts - AAC Tech is positioned to capitalize on the launch of AI and foldable smartphones, new AI smart glasses, and automotive audio orders, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][19]. - The report highlights the importance of product upgrades in various segments, including acoustic, MEMS, thermal management, and optical, as key growth drivers [1][3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Datadog's total revenue for 4Q24 was US$737.7 million, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus forecasts [1]. - The company is entering an investment phase aimed at driving long-term growth, with management planning to increase spending on sales and marketing (S&M) and research and development (R&D) in 2025 [1][5]. - The target price for Datadog is set at US$156.4, up from a previous target of US$154.3, based on a valuation of 16.6x 2025E EV/sales [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached US$2.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 26%, and non-GAAP net income increased by 41% to US$653.8 million [1][6]. - Key operating metrics include billings of US$908 million (up 26% YoY), and a net dollar-based retention rate in the high-110s percentage [5][6]. - The company had over 30,000 customers by the end of 2024, with significant growth in large customers contributing to the annual recurring revenue (ARR) [5]. Future Guidance - Management expects 1Q25 revenue to be between US$737-741 million, representing approximately 21% growth YoY, and non-GAAP net income per share to be between US$0.41-0.43 [5]. - For FY25, revenue is projected to be between US$3.175 billion and US$3.195 billion, indicating an 18-19% growth YoY [5][6]. - Operating expenses are expected to grow in the high-20s percentage YoY, which may impact near-term margins but is aimed at supporting long-term growth [1][5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc (9.2%) and Blackrock Inc. (6.8%) [3]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Datadog is approximately US$48.735 billion, with a 52-week high of US$168.65 and a low of US$104.97 [2][3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -2.3% and a 6-month performance of 19.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AAC Tech, with a target price raised to HK$53.48, implying a 14.9% upside from the current price of HK$46.55 [1][3][15]. Core Insights - AAC Tech is expected to experience significant earnings growth of 130-145% YoY for FY24, driven by a recovery in the global smartphone market, specification upgrades across various segments, and improved operational efficiency [1][8]. - The company is projected to benefit from trends in AI and foldable phones, as well as new product launches such as AI smart glasses and auto acoustics orders [1][8]. - The report anticipates continued earnings growth of 28% and 21% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, supported by a favorable product mix and margin improvements [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in FY23 to RMB 27,613 million in FY24, representing a 35.2% YoY increase [2][21]. - Net profit is projected to rise from RMB 740.4 million in FY23 to RMB 1,776.3 million in FY24, reflecting a 139.9% YoY growth [2][21]. - The report revises FY24-26E EPS forecasts upward by 1-4% due to anticipated specification upgrades and margin improvements [1][9][15]. Revenue Breakdown - For FY24, revenue from acoustics is expected to be RMB 8,680 million, while PSS (Power Supply Solutions) is projected at RMB 3,125 million [13]. - The revenue mix indicates that acoustics will account for approximately 31% of total revenue in FY25, with PSS contributing around 11% [13]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$53.48 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting different growth profiles across business segments [15][16]. - The target price implies a P/E ratio of 25.2x for FY25E, aligning with industry peers [15][16].

2025 年 2 月 10 日 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 5.3%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 0.9%。 受益于海外降息以及国内宏观环境改善，医药作为高弹性行业有望在 2025 年跑赢 市场。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将借助商业医疗保险的覆盖获得更好的 支付条件。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 药明康德 | 603259 CH | 买入 | 23,044.0 | 78.51 | 35% | 15.0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 百济神州 | ONC US ...

中国汽车行业 - 1月行业折扣扩大，比亚迪、零跑、埃安领衔 根据我们的测算，1月全行业平均折扣环比扩大0.3个百分点，主要由自主品牌（比亚迪、零跑和埃安）以及德 系品牌（宝马和奥迪）推动。昨晚比亚迪宣布将为几乎所有的主销车型标配高阶智驾功能，并且加量不加价， 从行业折扣的角度我们认为这将进一步促使价格战升级。在主要的车企中，我们认为吉利和小鹏今年仍有望交 出好于市场预期的答卷。 蔚小理和零跑：2025年1月，蔚来和理想的平均折扣环比持平，小鹏的平均折扣环比扩大0.8个百分点，主要 是因为G6和X9的折扣环比扩大4-5个百分点。小鹏有望在1Q推出P7大改款，2Q推出全新车型G7。零跑1月份 的平均折扣环比扩大3.1个百分点至9.1%，超出我们的预期。 行业点评 科技行业 - 智能驾驶：比亚迪"汽车智能化战略"发布会要点解读 2月10日，比亚迪在深圳总部举行的"汽车智能化战略"发布会上宣布，将在所有价格超过10万元的车型和3款 价格低于10万元的车型上搭载其"天神之眼"先进智能驾驶系统。首批21款车型均配备行业领先的端到端大型语 言模型LLM、5个毫米波雷达、12个摄像头和12个超声波雷达。由于比亚迪智能驾驶进展 ...

Employment Data - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the market expectation of 175,000[1] - The total non-farm employment data for November and December was revised upward by 100,000 to 261,000 and 307,000 respectively[2] - Private sector job growth slowed from 273,000 in December to 111,000 in January[2] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.48% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.33%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth slightly rose from 4.05% to 4.06%[2] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.0% in January[3] - Labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%[3] Labor Market Adjustments - Total labor force population was revised upward by 2.1 million, primarily due to foreign-born workers[3] - The three-month moving average of non-farm payrolls rose from 82,000 in August to 237,000 in January[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in March and May[4] - Further rate cuts of 25 basis points may occur in June and September due to tightening effects from rising real rates and a stronger dollar[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Amazon, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [23]. Core Insights - Amazon's 4Q24 results showed revenue of US$187.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of US$21.2 billion, up 61% year-over-year, driven by margin improvements in both North America and AWS segments [1][6]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to grow to between US$151.0 billion and US$155.5 billion, implying a 5-9% year-over-year growth, while operating profit is expected to be between US$14.0 billion and US$18.0 billion [1][6]. - The target price for Amazon has been raised by 14% to US$268.0, based on an 18.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with the two-year trading average [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, total revenue reached US$638.0 billion, with a net profit of US$59.2 billion, reflecting a 95% year-over-year increase [1][8]. - For FY25, revenue is estimated at US$702.6 billion, with a net profit of US$71.2 billion, representing a 20.2% year-over-year growth [8][12]. - The operating profit for FY25 is projected to be US$83.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, despite a negative impact of US$400 million from accounting changes [7][12]. Segment Performance - AWS revenue for 4Q24 was US$28.8 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 36.9% [6][10]. - The North America segment reported revenue of US$115.6 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, with operating margin expanding to 8.0% [6][10]. - Advertising services revenue grew 18.0% year-over-year to US$17.3 billion, contributing 9.2% to total revenue in 4Q24 [6][10]. Valuation and Forecast Changes - The valuation period has been rolled over to 2025E, with updated forecasts reflecting a slight decrease in revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 0.4% [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for FY25 is expected to be 50.0%, with an operating profit margin of 11.9% [12][13].

招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 台积电：AI 需求激增推动强劲的业绩和指引 台积电（TSM US，未评级）公布了强劲的 2024年四季度业绩。公司收入达到 268 亿美元（同比增长 36.5%/环比增长 14.1%），比彭博一致预期/公司指引高 3.9%/1.3%，主要受 3 纳米/5 纳米芯片的强劲需求驱动。毛利率扩张至 59.0%，高 于彭博一致预期/公司指引的 58.5%/58.0%，主要受益于更高的产能利用率和生产 效率，部分被 3 纳米产能扩张的稀释抵消。按技术节点划分，3 纳米在四季度的收 入占比为 26%（上季度/去年同期为 20%/15%）。按下游应用领域划分，高性能计 算仍是最大贡献板块，收入占比超过 50%，反映 AI 的强劲需求。2024 财年收入同 比增长 30%至 901 亿美元，毛利率为 56.1%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 管理层预计 2025 年一季度收入将在 250-258 亿美元区间。收入中值意味着同比增 长 35%，环比下降 6%。管理层表示，收入环比下降 6%主要受 1）智能手机季节 性因素影响，但 2）部分将被 AI 领域的强劲需求所抵消。 ...

Macro - The early implementation of Trump's tariff policy may alter the policy trajectory, with short-term inflationary pressures in the US and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][11] - China's economy is expected to continue its recovery, with housing and durable goods sales indicating a broad improvement in consumer demand [1][11] Technology - The technology sector is anticipated to outperform the market, driven by a rebound in global smartphone and PC demand, domestic consumer electronics subsidies, and the acceleration of AI terminal penetration [1] - Recommended stocks include Xiaomi Group, BYD Electronics, and Hon Teng Precision, benefiting from domestic subsidy policies and AI integration [1][9] Semiconductor - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: artificial intelligence, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [1] - Key stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry [1][9] Internet - The internet sector is influenced by market sentiment, with positive catalysts from AI model developments and negative impacts from US-China trade tensions [2] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, and Meituan, with a focus on consumer recovery and advertising revenue growth [2][9] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to outperform the market due to improved macroeconomic conditions and the upcoming implementation of the Class B medical insurance directory [3] - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, benefiting from better payment conditions for innovative drugs [3][9] Consumer Staples and Beauty - The consumer staples sector is expected to remain resilient, with beer sales projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in December 2024 [3] - Recommended stocks include Nongfu Spring and Proya, benefiting from strong brand positioning and consumer sentiment [3][9] Automotive - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with a significant drop in January sales but a positive outlook due to new "trade-in" policies [5] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are expected to show resilience in earnings [5][9] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with a projected increase in second-hand housing transactions and a focus on companies with strong commercial operations [5] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, benefiting from improved retail business performance [5][9] Insurance - The insurance sector is expected to see strong growth in new business value, driven by improved investment returns and product profitability [6] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance, with a focus on stable growth and dividend yields [6][9] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to remain stable despite new tariffs, with Chinese manufacturers continuing to expand in emerging markets [7] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry, focusing on new product development and market expansion [7][9]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US January Services PMI fell to 52.8 from 54.1 in December, below the expected 54, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth but still in expansion territory[1] - The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 from 49.3 in December, marking the first expansion in 10 months, with a corresponding GDP growth rate of approximately 2.4%[2] - The New Orders Index for manufacturing increased to 55.1, the highest in nearly three years, driven by pre-tariff rush effects[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The Services Price Index decreased from 64.4 to 60.4, indicating a continued trend of easing inflation in the service sector[1] - The Employment Index in the services sector rose from 51.4 to 52.3, suggesting strong non-farm payrolls for the month[1] - The Manufacturing Employment Index improved from 45.3 to 50.3, with a decrease in the proportion of companies laying off workers[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - PMI data has alleviated some investor concerns about inflation rebound, with US Treasury Secretary reaffirming a focus on oil prices to control inflation[3] - The financial conditions in the US have tightened due to rising dollar rates and increased market volatility, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies[3] - Economic growth and inflation are expected to moderate over the next two quarters, with the Fed likely to pause rate cuts in March and May, and potentially cut rates by 25 basis points in June and September[4]