Inflation Trends - February CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in January, and the month-on-month growth rate fell from 0.47% to 0.22%, below the market expectation of 0.27%[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.45% to 0.23%, also below the expected 0.28%[5] - The most persistent rent prices have seen their growth rate decline to near 2019 levels over the past three months[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased to 72 basis points for the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly declining to below 4.3%[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, potentially considering a cut in September or December[1] Economic Uncertainties - Trump's tariff policy introduces medium-term inflation uncertainties, with a projected 10% tariff expected to raise PCE inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months[5] - Consumer and business confidence indices have declined due to factors such as mass deportations and government spending cuts, leading to a potential slowdown in economic momentum[5] Core Services and Rent - Core services inflation has shown a mild decline, with transportation service prices significantly impacting the core CPI, dropping from a growth of 1.8% in January to -0.8% in February[5] - Owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, has maintained a growth rate of 0.3%, with its annualized growth over the past three months falling to 3.7%[5]

(852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 年 3 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀超预期放缓，但不确定性仍在 美国 2 月通胀和核心通胀超预期放缓。食品和能源增速下降，核心商品中进口 商品如服装和家具价格增速超过去 6 个月平均水平。受机票和汽车保险价格等 运输服务价格大幅下降带动，核心通胀延续放缓，最具粘性的房租价格过去 3 月增速降至接近 2019 水平。数据公布后，市场对滞涨担忧略有缓解，对全年降 息幅度预期升至 72 个基点，10 年国债利率小幅下降至 4.3%以下区间。尽管通 胀近期仍保持温和放缓趋势，但特朗普关税政策给中期通胀带来不确定性。美 联储短期内可能对降息态度保持谨慎，在降通胀与防止就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for EHang Holdings with an unchanged target price of US$30, indicating a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of US$22.45 [3][24]. Core Insights - EHang's net loss in 4Q24 narrowed by 35% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB47 million, supported by a significant increase in electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft deliveries, which grew 2.4 times YoY [1][8]. - For 2025, EHang targets revenue of RMB900 million, suggesting a 97% YoY growth, and is positioned as the first manufacturer in China to obtain essential certifications for mass production of eVTOL aircraft, ahead of competitors by 1-2 years [1][8]. - The potential approval of operator certification for its subsidiaries is expected to be a key catalyst for share price movement [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, EHang's revenue surged 2.9 times YoY to RMB456 million, while the net loss narrowed by 24% YoY to RMB230 million [2][19]. - The company achieved positive operating cash flow for five consecutive quarters, with net cash and short-term investments totaling RMB1 billion at the end of 2024 [1][8]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are RMB899 million and RMB1,341 million, respectively, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 97% and 49.2% [2][19]. Delivery and Expansion - EHang delivered 78 units of the EH216 series in 4Q24, contributing to a total of 216 units delivered in FY24, representing a 3.1 times YoY increase [1][8]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, securing new orders in China and expanding flight operations to 16 cities in Japan, Thailand, and Mexico [1][8]. Share Performance and Market Data - EHang's market capitalization is approximately US$1.42 billion, with an average turnover of US$41.8 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown significant performance over the past six months, with an increase of 85.4% [5].

2025 年 3 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 预期药品集采政策优化，期待"创新药目录"落地 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 12.9%，跑输 MSCI 中国指数 7.6%。 受益于国内药品价格政策优化、国内宏观环境改善以及海外降息预期，医药行业有 望在 2025 年继续迎来估值修复。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将获得更好 的支付环境。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 百济神州 | ONC US | 买入 | 27,422.2 | 359.47 | 40% | 209 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Thermo Fisher as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential upside of 31.8% [2] Core Insights - The performance of C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies is showing positive trends, while clinical CRO companies are experiencing a decline in demand [1][4] - The overall revenue and profit growth for the tracked companies in 2024 remains under pressure, but half of them showed improvement in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [6][7] - The demand outlook for 2025 varies significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies being optimistic, while clinical CRO companies maintain a cautious stance [1][4][38] Summary by Sections Profit Recovery - Profit recovery is outpacing revenue recovery, with the median and average profit growth rates for the industry in 2024 at +2.4% and +3.5%, respectively, compared to -6.2% and -7.2% in 2023 [7][24] - The average gross margin for the tracked companies decreased from 46.4% in 2022 to 41.7% in 2024, indicating pressure from demand weakness [24][25] Demand Trends - C(D)MO companies are witnessing strong commercial production demand, with Lonza and Samsung Bio reporting significant growth in their C(D)MO revenues [38][39] - Life sciences upstream companies are benefiting from the completion of inventory destocking by downstream clients, leading to a recovery in demand [39][40] 2025 Performance Guidance - C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies are providing improved performance guidance for 2025, while clinical CRO companies are showing a notable deterioration in their outlook [1][4][39] - Lonza expects its C(D)MO revenue growth to approach 20% in 2025, while Samsung Bio anticipates a continued growth of 20-25% [1][4] Long-term Growth Support - The global healthcare financing is stabilizing, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase in 2024, marking the first positive growth since 2021 [1][4] - Pharmaceutical companies' strong free cash flow will continue to support innovation and research and development [1][4] Market Reactions - Following the 4Q24 earnings releases, stock price reactions varied significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and clinical pre-CRO stocks performing better than life sciences upstream and clinical CRO stocks [30][31]

市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran的一篇报告。该报告提出多国 联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政 策。联合干预汇率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业，可能推升通胀预 期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元 国际地位，削弱美国盟友体系。相比1985年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系和更 加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国 债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制 政策空间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普"美国优先"、贸易保护主义 和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利空美元、 美债与美股，利好黄金、欧元与人民币。 广场协议的启示。1985年9月美国面对贸易逆差扩大和保护主义情绪升温，协调日本、西德、 ...

Group 1: Global Market Performance - Chinese stock market outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Index flat and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising significantly[1] - A-shares performed better than Hong Kong stocks, led by consumer staples, materials, and financial sectors[1] - Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks rose by 2.8%[1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Investors are focused on the impact of housing stockpiling policies proposed in the government work report, which aims to improve housing supply-demand balance[1] - European stocks declined due to heightened risk aversion following Trump's threats to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum[1] - U.S. stock market experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling after Trump's tariff announcement, with significant selling pressure observed[1] Group 3: Financial Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose as inflation concerns persist, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates in the short term[2] - The dollar index fell, while the euro strengthened due to positive outlook on German defense spending agreements[2] - Copper prices increased, reflecting its correlation with global industrial economic conditions and Chinese stock market trends[2]

公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：50 港元）- B10 定价极具竞争力，25 年有望盈亏平衡 2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk B10 定价具有竞争力，零跑的自研实力或被低估：零跑的全新纯电 SUV B10 于 3 月 10 日晚开启预售，指导价为 109,800-139,800 元，其中搭载激光雷达 及城市 NOA 功能的智驾版本价格下探至 129,800 元。我们认为该定价极具竞 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,783 | -1.85 | 39.51 | | 恒生国企 | 8,725 | -2.12 | 51.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5,885 | -2.52 | 56.35 | | 上证综指 | 3,366 | -0.19 | 13.15 | | 深证综指 | 2,081 | 0 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 38,840 | -0.88 | 30.23 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,017 | 0.40 | 51.80 | | 恒生地产 | 16,316 | 0.67 | -10.98 | | 恒生公用事业 | 34,913 | 0.15 | 6.20 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周二（3 月 11 日）中国股市再次跑赢全球。恒指持平，恒生科技大涨，必选 消费、医疗保健与资讯科技板块涨幅居前，原材料、金融与电讯板块下跌。 A 股表现好于港股，必选消费、原材料与金融板块领涨。中概股大涨，纳斯 达克中国金龙指数收涨 2.8%，富时 A50期指连续夜盘小幅上涨。国债期货价 格下跌，国债收益率上升，人民币走强。投资者关注存量房收储政策效果是 否改善，因 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 对较大，但对美国金融强权收益和金融市场稳定冲击相对较小。Miran 希 望既重振美国制造业，又不严重损害美元国际地位，所以建议推动主要国 家多边政策调整。 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 具体政策。（1）以关税施压贸易伙伴联合干预汇率，推动美元大幅贬 值，提升美国制造与出口竞争力。（2）以关税和国债投资费（截留国债 票息）施压外国政府性债权人将持有的美国国债置换为 100 年不可交易的 无息"世纪债券"，降低美国政府偿债负担，令债权人承担更多国际货币 公共品成本。（3）美国对盟友的安全承诺（军事保护）与盟友购买"世 纪债券"挂钩，降低美国对全球安全投入，令盟友承担更多全球安全成 本。（4）指导美联储用 QE 应对可能的外国投资者抛售和国债收益率上 升，用外汇干预应对可能的美元升值。（5）将自然资源（如黄金、石 油、矿产储备、联邦土地）货币化创建主权财富基金，投资美国制造业与 基础设施。 政策难度。第（1）条政策难度中等。如果特朗普威胁的关税税率非常 高，那么可以创造出有力的交易杠杆令贸易伙伴接受联 ...