Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (CTF) despite lowering the target price by 31% to HK$10.00, which corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for FY25E [3][5][16]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of FY25, amounting to HK$39.4 billion, which aligns with market expectations. However, net profit fell by 44.4% to HK$2.5 billion, missing market expectations by 20% due to weak consumer confidence and fair value losses on gold loans due to rising gold prices [1][2]. - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to HK$2 billion and declared a dividend of HK$0.2 per share for the second half of FY25, down from HK$0.25 in the previous year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue for FY25E is projected to decline by 16.2%, with further declines of 2.4% and a slight recovery of 3.2% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][7]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards by 20-30%, with expected profits of HK$4.99 billion, HK$6.40 billion, and HK$6.83 billion for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. Financial Performance Metrics - The report highlights a gross margin increase of 6 percentage points to 31.6% due to higher gold prices and a doubling of fixed-price product sales [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow is expected to improve in the second half of FY25, which will support the share buyback plan [3][10]. Market Context - The report notes that the global environment remains uncertain, with potential continued volatility in gold prices impacting the company's performance [2][3]. - The share price has seen a significant decline of 29.9% over the past six months, indicating market challenges [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE, with a target price of HK$44.41, implying a 29.3% upside from the current price of HK$34.35 [5][10][11]. Core Insights - Key growth drivers identified for BYDE include Apple products, New Energy Vehicles (NEV), and AI server components, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue in 2025 [3][10]. - The management has a positive outlook for all segments in Q4 2024 and 2025, highlighting growth in iPad market share, high-end Android demand, and the ramp-up of AI server products [3][10]. - The automotive segment is projected to generate revenue of RMB30 billion in FY25E, driven by high-end Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and suspension products [3][10]. - AI server sales are expected to reach RMB1 billion in FY24E and RMB3-5 billion in FY25E, with a gross profit margin similar to industry peers at around 10% [3][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB129,957 million in FY24E to RMB196,265 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.3% [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB4,428 million in FY24E to RMB6,070 million in FY25E, with a growth rate of 37.1% [4][8]. - The report indicates a consistent increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB2.67 in FY24E to RMB3.36 in FY25E [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11.9x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 15.0x [3][10][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a P/E of 15x to various business segments, reflecting their growth potential and earnings visibility [10][11][12]. Segment Performance - The assembly segment is expected to contribute 16% to FY25E profit, while the automotive intelligent segment is projected to account for 29% [12]. - The component business, including Jabil components, is also expected to contribute significantly, with each segment assigned a target P/E of 15x [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to $3.10 from the previous $3.20, indicating a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of $2.38 [8][11]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected Q3 2024 results, with total revenue reaching RMB 2.1 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 9%. The non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB 67 million from RMB 76 million in Q3 2023, also better than the expected loss of RMB 80 million [8][10]. - The e-commerce segment (BEC) saw a revenue growth of 14%, improving from 6% in Q2 2024, driven by new high-quality distribution channels and emerging e-commerce services [8][10]. - The brand management segment (BBM) achieved a 10% year-over-year growth, recovering from a 9% decline in Q2 2024, attributed to increased order attach rates and new store openings [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY 2024, total revenue is projected to grow to RMB 9.42 billion, reflecting a 6.9% year-over-year increase, with BBM and BEC expected to grow by 14% and 6% respectively [19]. - The company anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 5 million in 2024, a significant improvement from the previous forecast of a loss of RMB 2.8 million [10][19]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to RMB 185 million in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 5.8% [10][19]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the enterprise value at RMB 5.26 billion based on a 3.0x EV/EBIT multiple and RMB 1.44 billion based on a 0.1x EV/sales multiple, alongside RMB 2.6 billion in net cash [10][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to improve from 23.9x in FY 2023 to 16.9x in FY 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation outlook [19][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to US$3.1, reflecting a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of US$2.38 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected results for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB2.1 billion, which is 9% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders narrowed to RMB67 million from RMB76 million in Q3 2023, outperforming the consensus estimate of an RMB80 million loss [1]. - The company's e-commerce segment (BEC) achieved a revenue growth of 14%, an improvement from 6% in Q2 2024, driven by high-quality new distribution businesses and an increase in services revenue from emerging e-commerce channels. The Baozun Brand Management (BBM) segment also turned around with a 10% year-over-year growth [1]. - The overall adjusted operating loss narrowed in Q3 and was better than expectations, with product sales revenue increasing by 11% year-over-year to RMB783 million, and services revenue rising by 14% year-over-year to RMB1.3 billion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, total revenue is estimated to grow by 14% for BBM and 6% for BEC, with a forecasted non-GAAP operating profit of RMB5 million, improving from a loss of RMB23.7 million in 2023. The company anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating breakeven in 2024 [1][3]. - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue of RMB9.420 billion for FY2024, with a year-over-year growth of 6.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to a loss of RMB21.1 million, compared to a loss of RMB65.1 million in FY2023 [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating efficiency, with a forecasted return to profitability in FY2025, projecting a net profit of RMB185.2 million [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP-based valuation consists of RMB526 million for BEC based on a 3.0x 2024E EV/EBIT, RMB144 million for BBM based on a 0.1x 2024E EV/sales, and RMB2.6 billion in net cash, applying a 60% holding discount to the group-level valuation [1][5]. - The report provides a P/E ratio of 16.9x for FY2025 and 9.8x for FY2026, indicating a potential recovery in earnings [3][11].

22 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Short-term headwind continues; strategic upgrades to drive long-term growth iQiyi reported 3Q24 financial results: total revenue declined by 10% YoY to RMB7.2bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus and our estimate; non-GAAP net income was down by 23% YoY to RMB480mn, ahead of consensus/our estimate of RMB266/426mn primarily due to better-than-expected opex control and foreign exchange gains. Looking ahead in 4Q24E, w ...

22 Nov 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 短期逆风持续 ； 战略升级推动长期增长 爱奇艺报告了2024年第三季度财务结果：总收入同比下降10%，达到人民币72亿 元，符合彭博一致预期和我们的估计；非GAAP净收入下降23%，至人民币4.8亿 元，超出彭博一致预期和我们的估计（人民币2.66亿/4.26亿），主要得益于更好 的运营费用控制和外汇收益。展望2024年第四季度，我们预计总收入将同比下降 14%，环比下降8%，主要由于内容供应减少和消费情绪疲软。不过，我们预计2 024年第四季度非GAAP营业利润环比大致持平，为人民币3.68亿元，得益于爱奇 艺谨慎的成本和运营费用控制。该公司将增加迷你剧的投资，同时削减低回报率 内容的投资，我们预计这将帮助爱奇艺抓住新的增长机会并长期提高利润率。我 们将2024年至2026年的总收入预测下调3-4%，以反映相对疲弱的内容表现和宏 观经济不确定性。我们将目标价调整至4.50美元，基于2025年非GAAP每股收益 的15倍市盈率（之前基于15倍2025年非GAAP每股收益的目标价为4.80美元）。 维持买入评级。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue reached $35.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8%[1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, aligning with company guidance and Bloomberg consensus[1] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q3 were $0.81, up 101.0% year-on-year and 18.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 8.9%[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Data center revenue hit a record high of $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.1%[2] - 90% of data center revenue, approximately $27.6 billion, came from computing, which saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.3%[2] - Gaming, professional visualization, and automotive segments experienced quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 13.9%, 7.0%, and 29.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Strong demand for the Hopper series, with H200 sales reaching several billion dollars in Q3, is expected to continue into the second half of the year and next year[3] - NVIDIA delivered 13,000 GPU samples in Q3, with Q4 deliveries expected to exceed previous forecasts[3] - Approximately 50% of Q3 data center revenue was contributed by cloud vendors, totaling around $15 billion, with major players like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon accounting for about 30% of their capital expenditures directed towards NVIDIA[3] Group 4: Margin Expectations - Initial gross margins for the Blackwell series are projected to be between 71.0% and 72.5%, with expectations of improvement to around 70% as production stabilizes and scales up[4]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to exceed market benchmarks [15]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue reached $35.082 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8% [1][10]. - The data center segment generated $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% [1][10]. - The demand outlook remains optimistic, particularly for the Hopper series, with significant contributions from cloud service providers [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue was $35.082 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.5% [1][10]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, consistent with company guidance [1][10]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.81, exceeding expectations by 8.9% [1][10]. Business Segments - Data center revenue reached $30.8 billion, with 90% derived from compute-related revenue, which grew 132.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gaming and professional visualization segments also showed growth, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.9% and 29.8%, respectively [1][10]. Future Outlook - NVIDIA expects Q4 FY25 revenue to be around $37.5 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.9% [1][10]. - Management anticipates continued growth in the Hopper series and a stable gross margin of approximately 75% for FY25 [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Thermo Fisher with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $670 [1][5][33]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher is positioned as a global leader in the life sciences sector, benefiting from industry improvement trends and a comprehensive product and service portfolio [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth of +0.4% in 2024, +5.6% in 2025, and +8.3% in 2026, with Non-GAAP net profit growth of -1.0%, +5.7%, and +10.4% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the anticipated recovery in biotech financing, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting environment, which is expected to boost customer demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Thermo Fisher has the largest business scale and service range in the industry, providing integrated services from drug discovery to commercial production [1][2]. - The company’s bioproduction services offer a competitive edge in securing customer orders, while its CDMO business addresses clinical trial supply challenges [1][2]. Financial Strength - Thermo Fisher is an active consolidator in the life sciences sector, with management planning to allocate 60%-75% of capital for mergers and acquisitions [1][2]. - The company has consistently generated robust free cash flow, providing a solid financial foundation for future expansions [1][2]. Market Trends - The global life sciences market is projected to grow due to increasing demand for pharmaceuticals, drug production costs, and R&D expenditures [1][2]. - The report notes that downstream customers are expected to complete inventory destocking by 2024, which will normalize order patterns [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including projected sales revenue of $43,033 million in 2024, with a growth trajectory leading to $49,234 million by 2026 [2][28]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be $8,278 million in 2024, increasing to $9,662 million by 2026 [2][28].

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a target price raised to **USD 23.3** (previously USD 21.5), reflecting a 15.2% upside from the current price of USD 20.23 [1][5] Core Views - **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2024 revenue increased by 27% YoY to RMB 22.6 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and CICC estimates by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively, due to weak existing home transaction (EHT) sentiment [1] - **Non-GAAP Net Income**: Q3 2024 non-GAAP net income was RMB 1.8 billion, with a gross margin of 7.9%, in line with expectations, driven by cost control measures [1] - **Market Share Expansion**: Continued market share gains in both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT), along with successful new business expansion, support a positive outlook [1] - **Q4 2024 Outlook**: EHT and NHT gross transaction value (GTV) are expected to grow over 40% YoY, supported by strong performance in October and November, though additional expenses of RMB 1-1.5 billion may reduce Q4 non-GAAP net income to RMB 220 million [2] Business Performance - **EHT Performance**: EHT GTV grew 9% YoY but declined 17% QoQ due to slowing transaction sentiment post-June peak, with contribution margin dropping 7 percentage points to 41% due to increased fixed costs from agent expansion [2] - **NHT Performance**: NHT GTV grew 18.5% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry's 19% decline, driven by partnerships with state-owned developers [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy Package 924 and subsequent measures have significantly boosted transaction sentiment, with better sustainability compared to previous policy supports [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 91.0 billion, growing 17.1% YoY, with FY2025E and FY2026E revenues expected at RMB 107.7 billion (+18.3% YoY) and RMB 121.8 billion (+13.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: FY2024E non-GAAP net profit is estimated at RMB 8.1 billion, with FY2025E and FY2026E projections of RMB 9.4 billion (+16.7% YoY) and RMB 10.9 billion (+16.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price implies a 2025E non-GAAP P/E of 21.4x, with core business valued at USD 22.3 per ADS and Shengdu at USD 0.9 per ADS [1][10] Corporate Social Responsibility - **Employee Welfare**: Plans to invest RMB 1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in employee welfare, including transitioning to fixed salary structures and providing social insurance for brokers, enhancing long-term value [3] Valuation Summary - **DCF Valuation**: The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the core business is RMB 193.7 billion, with a total enterprise value of RMB 201.7 billion, translating to a valuation of USD 23.3 per ADS [9][10] - **SOTP Valuation**: The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation includes RMB 193.7 billion for the core business and RMB 8.0 billion for Shengdu, resulting in a total valuation of RMB 201.7 billion (USD 28.0 billion) [10]