Group 1: Global Market Performance - Chinese stock market outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Index flat and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising significantly[1] - A-shares performed better than Hong Kong stocks, led by consumer staples, materials, and financial sectors[1] - Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks rose by 2.8%[1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Investors are focused on the impact of housing stockpiling policies proposed in the government work report, which aims to improve housing supply-demand balance[1] - European stocks declined due to heightened risk aversion following Trump's threats to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum[1] - U.S. stock market experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling after Trump's tariff announcement, with significant selling pressure observed[1] Group 3: Financial Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose as inflation concerns persist, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates in the short term[2] - The dollar index fell, while the euro strengthened due to positive outlook on German defense spending agreements[2] - Copper prices increased, reflecting its correlation with global industrial economic conditions and Chinese stock market trends[2]

公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：50 港元）- B10 定价极具竞争力，25 年有望盈亏平衡 2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk B10 定价具有竞争力，零跑的自研实力或被低估：零跑的全新纯电 SUV B10 于 3 月 10 日晚开启预售，指导价为 109,800-139,800 元，其中搭载激光雷达 及城市 NOA 功能的智驾版本价格下探至 129,800 元。我们认为该定价极具竞 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,783 | -1.85 | 39.51 | | 恒生国企 | 8,725 | -2.12 | 51.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5,885 | -2.52 | 56.35 | | 上证综指 | 3,366 | -0.19 | 13.15 | | 深证综指 | 2,081 | 0 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 38,840 | -0.88 | 30.23 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,017 | 0.40 | 51.80 | | 恒生地产 | 16,316 | 0.67 | -10.98 | | 恒生公用事业 | 34,913 | 0.15 | 6.20 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周二（3 月 11 日）中国股市再次跑赢全球。恒指持平，恒生科技大涨，必选 消费、医疗保健与资讯科技板块涨幅居前，原材料、金融与电讯板块下跌。 A 股表现好于港股，必选消费、原材料与金融板块领涨。中概股大涨，纳斯 达克中国金龙指数收涨 2.8%，富时 A50期指连续夜盘小幅上涨。国债期货价 格下跌，国债收益率上升，人民币走强。投资者关注存量房收储政策效果是 否改善，因 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 对较大，但对美国金融强权收益和金融市场稳定冲击相对较小。Miran 希 望既重振美国制造业，又不严重损害美元国际地位，所以建议推动主要国 家多边政策调整。 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 具体政策。（1）以关税施压贸易伙伴联合干预汇率，推动美元大幅贬 值，提升美国制造与出口竞争力。（2）以关税和国债投资费（截留国债 票息）施压外国政府性债权人将持有的美国国债置换为 100 年不可交易的 无息"世纪债券"，降低美国政府偿债负担，令债权人承担更多国际货币 公共品成本。（3）美国对盟友的安全承诺（军事保护）与盟友购买"世 纪债券"挂钩，降低美国对全球安全投入，令盟友承担更多全球安全成 本。（4）指导美联储用 QE 应对可能的外国投资者抛售和国债收益率上 升，用外汇干预应对可能的美元升值。（5）将自然资源（如黄金、石 油、矿产储备、联邦土地）货币化创建主权财富基金，投资美国制造业与 基础设施。 政策难度。第（1）条政策难度中等。如果特朗普威胁的关税税率非常 高，那么可以创造出有力的交易杠杆令贸易伙伴接受联 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席 Stephen Miran 的一篇报告1。该报告提出多国联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无 息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政策。联合干预汇 率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业， 可能推升通胀预期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债 利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元国际地位，削弱美国盟友体 系。相比 1985 年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系 和更加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺 美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑 战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制政策空 间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普 "美国优先"、贸易保护主义和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进 该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, indicating potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Views - Leapmotor's competitive pricing for the new B10 EV and strong margins in 4Q24 enhance confidence in sales performance. The FY25E sales volume is revised up by 7% to 0.48 million units, with expectations of a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E [1][6]. - The company's in-house autonomous driving and chassis capabilities are seen as undervalued, potentially leading to better-than-expected gross profit margins for the B series [1][6]. - The investor day on March 11 is anticipated to showcase technologies that could positively impact share price [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth, with FY24E at RMB32.16 billion, FY25E at RMB51.02 billion, and FY26E at RMB57.54 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 58.6%, and 12.8% respectively [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in FY24E to 11.2% in FY25E and 12.3% in FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][11]. - Net profit is projected to transition from a loss of RMB98 million in FY25E to a profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E, showcasing a significant turnaround [2][11]. Sales and Market Performance - Leapmotor's B10 EV was launched with a competitive pre-sale price range of RMB109,800-139,800, with the model featuring LiDAR priced as low as RMB129,800 [1][6]. - The company reported a 37% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in 4Q24, reaching RMB13.5 billion, with a net profit of RMB81 million, exceeding previous forecasts [1][6]. - The gross margin for 4Q24 rose to 13.3%, up 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][6]. Valuation - The target price for Leapmotor has been raised from HK$40.00 to HK$50.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25E, aligning with the average for Chinese new energy vehicle start-ups [3][6]. - Current market capitalization stands at HK$55.48 billion, with a current share price of HK$41.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% [3][6].

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the market expectation of 160,000[1] - Private sector employment rebounded significantly, increasing from 81,000 in January to 140,000 in February[1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, with a notable increase in the broader U6 unemployment rate[1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings growth decreased from 0.48% in January to 0.28% in February, aligning with market expectations[1] - Year-on-year wage growth fell to 4.02%, indicating a trend of moderate wage growth slowdown[1] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a neutral policy stance in the short term, with potential pauses in rate cuts during March, May, and June[1] - There is an increased likelihood of a rate cut in September or December, contingent on economic slowdown due to Trump's policies[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%, with participation among those aged 55 and older dropping to a historical low of 38.1%[1] - The broader U6 unemployment rate rose from 7.5% to 8%, primarily due to an increase in part-time employment[1]

Strategy Insights - Short-term risk appetite is expected to decline due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [2][4][19] - The emergence of DeepSeek is anticipated to increase the demand for computing power, leading to significant growth in usage due to reduced resource costs [1][2] Macro Economic Overview - China's economy shows signs of localized improvement, with a rebound in real estate, durable consumption, and commodity exports [2][13] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be slightly above 5% in the first half of the year, supported by improved consumer sentiment [13][18] Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by a recovery in global smartphone and PC demand, AI innovations, and increased capital expenditure from major players [2][4] - Key investment themes include the acceleration of AI applications, demand for AI servers, and advancements in smart driving technologies [2][4] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [2][4] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to boost domestic demand for computing power and enhance investment returns in AI [2][4] Internet Sector - The market is beginning to reassess the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumption characteristics [4] - Key stocks to watch include Trip.com, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Tencent, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts [4][11] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is poised for valuation recovery in 2025, supported by improved domestic drug pricing policies and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi AppTec, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [4][11] Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage showing strong performance [4][11] - The beauty and skincare sector is also seeing growth, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share [4][11] Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle market is recovering, with sales expected to rise significantly in the coming months [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are well-positioned to capitalize on technological advancements [5][11] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with contract sales expected to perform better than previously anticipated [5][11] - Key players to watch include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [5][11] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see a return to normal growth rates, with significant increases in new business value anticipated for major insurers [5][11] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and AIA Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market dynamics [5][11] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives, particularly in the construction machinery segment [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry, which are well-positioned for growth [5][11]