Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, with a recommendation to increase allocation to quality stocks within the sector due to a high probability of positive performance in Q2 2025 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report indicates a ~70% probability that the real estate sector will be positively impacted in Q2 2025, driven by favorable sales data and potential policy support [1][21]. - Key factors contributing to the optimistic outlook include improved sentiment in the market, proactive regulatory measures, and a recovering financing environment [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales data for January and February showed stability, with new home transaction area in 30 cities increasing by 1% year-on-year, and second-hand home transactions in 16 cities rising by 39% year-on-year [2][7][8]. - The new home subscription index has been rising since the Lunar New Year, indicating a potential increase in sales for March [15][20]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures in maintaining buyer confidence, especially in light of potential seasonal sales declines in Q2 [20][21]. - The analysis suggests that the likelihood of policy intervention is high if sales decline exceeds expectations, which could further support the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks that are likely to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market, including companies like Beike (BEKE US), China Resources Land (1109 HK), and Longfor Group (960 HK) [29][30]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those in property management services as potential beneficiaries in the current market environment [29][30].

Macro Economic Insights - China's economic activity shows signs of recovery, with housing sales and durable consumption rebounding, leading to a GDP growth forecast slightly above 5% for the first half of 2025[13] - High-frequency economic activity index increased from 0.94 in Q3 2024 to approximately 1.05 in Q4 2024, indicating a positive trend[13] - In January-February 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 3% year-on-year, contrasting with a 11.5% increase in Q4 2024[14] Technology Sector Outlook - The DeepSeek trend is expected to increase demand for computing power, benefiting the computing industry chain, including chip design and manufacturing[1] - Recommendations include companies like Shengyi Technology (生益科技, 600183 CH) and Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) within the computing power supply chain[1] - AI server demand is projected to grow significantly, with major North American and domestic companies increasing capital expenditures for 2025[2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies[2] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to drive domestic computing power demand significantly, benefiting companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) and Northern Huachuang (北方华创, 002371 CH)[2] Internet and Software Services - The market is reassessing the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumer aspects[4] - Companies like Kuaishou (快手, 1024 HK) and Alibaba (BABA US) are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts[4] Consumer Sector - The essential consumer sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉, 9633 HK) and China Resources Beverage (华润饮料, 2460 HK) recommended for investment due to their defensive nature[4] - The optional consumer sector shows signs of improvement, with brands like Anta (安踏, 2020 HK) and Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡, LKNCY US) recommended for potential growth[5] Insurance Sector - The new business value (NBV) for insurance companies is expected to return to normal growth rates, with significant increases projected for companies like New China Life (新华, 69%) and China Pacific Insurance (太保, 36%) in 2025[6] - The insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from a stable investment environment and improved profitability in the coming year[6] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home sales contracts declining by only 6% year-on-year, better than the expected 10%[6] - The market sentiment is improving, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing market confidence and boosting sales[6]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI rose from 52.8 in January to 53.5 in February, exceeding market expectations of 52.5, indicating a faster expansion in the services sector[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in January to 50.3 in February, below the expected 50.8, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing activity[2] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services increased from 60.4 to 62.6, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in core services[2] - The employment index in the services sector rose from 52.3 to 53.9, although key sectors like healthcare showed contraction in February[2] Market Reactions and Predictions - The significant decline in U.S. stock markets signals potential economic slowdown, prompting concerns over the impact of Trump's policies on the economy[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, with a potential cut in September or December[1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline, with energy, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors falling, while materials, consumer staples, and information technology sectors rose[1] - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with significant gains in semiconductor, robotics, military, and healthcare IT sectors, while coal, food, and liquor sectors declined[1] Trade War Impact - The U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on China, increasing risk aversion and expectations that tensions will accelerate China's tech self-sufficiency, with reports of guidance to promote the use of open-source chips[1] - The trade war is expected to weaken freight and commodity demand, leading to declines in shipping and fuel oil futures[1] European Market Reaction - European stocks fell sharply due to concerns over potential tariffs on the EU, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors[1] - The trade war is anticipated to weaken Europe's economic growth outlook, with a drop in European bond yields and defensive sectors like food and utilities performing well[1] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. stocks continued to decline, particularly in industrial and consumer staples sectors sensitive to trade tensions and supply chain costs[1] - The market's expectation for a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has expanded, although the New York Fed President indicated no immediate need for policy adjustment[1] Commodity Prices - Oil prices are on a downward trend due to weakened demand outlook from the trade war, OPEC+ production increase plans, and geopolitical developments involving Ukraine[1] - Trade tensions have boosted gold prices while negatively impacting copper prices due to a dimmed global economic outlook[1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for BYD Company Limited Core Insights - BYD is a pioneer and leader in the global electric vehicle industry, leveraging a strong R&D team of 110,000 engineers to develop innovative and disruptive technologies, establishing a sustainable competitive advantage in electric, intelligent, high-end, and international aspects of the automotive industry [2] - The recent H-share placement involved the issuance of 129,800,000 new shares at a price of HKD 335.2 per share, raising approximately HKD 43.509 billion, marking the largest placement in the Hong Kong capital market since 2022 [1][2] Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - On March 3, 2025, BYD completed a new H-share placement, with a total issuance of 129,800,000 shares at a price of HKD 335.2, representing a discount of about 7.8% from the closing price on the same day, totaling HKD 43.509 billion [1] Company Profile - BYD has a robust accumulation of core technologies in the electric vehicle sector and continues to push forward with original and disruptive technologies, enhancing its long-term competitive edge [2] - The collaboration with CMB International in this transaction highlights the ongoing support for BYD's refinancing efforts in the capital market, reinforcing CMB International's commitment to the long-term development of China's new energy and high-tech industries [2]

中国能源 威廉·冯，CFA (852) 3900 0826 wayne fung@cmbi.com.hk 2025年3月3日 中国民生银行国际 | 全球市场 | 股权研究 | 覆盖终止 联合能源（467 HK） 终止覆盖 鉴于资源分配更加合理，我们终止了对联合能源的覆盖。所有之前的推荐自覆 盖终止之日起不再有效。 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露，更多来自彭博社的报告：响应CMBR或http://www.cm bi.com.hk 1 2025年3月3日 披露与免责声明 分析师认证 该研究报告内容（全部或部分）的主要研究员声明，关于本报告中所涵盖的证券或发行人：（1）所表达的所有观点准确反映了其个人对该证券或发行人的看法 ；并且（2）其薪酬的任何部分均未、现在或将来直接或间接与其在本报告中表达的特定观点相关。 此外，分析师确认，分析师及其关联人（根据香港证券及期货事务监察委员会发布的《行为守则》定义）在以下方面没有参与或交易本研究报告涵盖的股票： （1）在报告发布前30个日历日内未曾买卖本报告涵盖的股票；（2）在报告发布后3个营业日内不会买卖本报告涵盖的股票；（3）未担任本报告涵盖的任何香 港上市公司的董事 ...

Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk 1 3 Mar 2025 3 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Coverage Termination United Energy (467 HK) Termination of Coverage In view of better allocation of resources, we terminate coverage of United Energy. All previous recommendations are no longer valid, as of the date of termination of cove ...

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BeiGene (ONC US) 3 Mar 2025 Strong FY25 guidance issued Earnings Summary | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (US$ mn) | 2,459 | 3,810 | 5,090 | 6,261 | 7,335 | | Net profit (US$ mn) | (882) | (645) | 131 | 694 | 1,336 | | EPS (Reported) (US$) | (8.45) | (6.12) | 1.23 | 6.50 | 12.52 | | R&D expenses (US$mn) | (1,779) | (1,953) | (1,985) | (2,004) | (2,127) | | CAPEX (US$ mn) ...

2025年3月3日 招商银行国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 贝吉纳（美国纳斯达克：ONC US） 发布了强劲的2025财年指导方针 由zanubrutinib驱动的强劲产品销售 贝灵格生物科技公司2024财年总产品销售额 达到37.8亿美元（同比增长73%），与我们的先前估计一致。总收入为38.1亿美元， 与我们的先前估计一致，并且超出彭博社一致预期2.7%。在2024财年，zanubrutini b（Zanu）的销售额同比增长105%至26.4亿美元。排除2024年第四季度季节性因素 和客户订单时间对30亿美元的正向影响和第三季度15亿美元的负向影响，Zanu在第 四季度的销售额同比增长13%，超出市场预期。Zanu在2024财年的强劲增长主要得 益于美国和欧洲的市场份额增长，销售额分别同比增长106%和194%，达到20亿美 元和3.59亿美元。在美国市场，Zanu在2024年第四季度继续保持在1L和R/R CLL新 患者处方中的领先地位，鉴于CLL的慢性性质和延长治疗周期，这进一步巩固了其持 续增长潜力。值得注意的是，第四季度是Zanu美国销售额（6.16亿美元，环比增长2 2%）首次超过ac ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Salesforce, with a target price adjusted to $388.00 from a previous $410.00, based on a 21x FY26E EV/EBITDA multiple [1][14]. Core Insights - Salesforce reported a total revenue of $10 billion for 4QFY25, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net income increased by 20% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, exceeding consensus by 6% due to improved operational efficiency [1][2]. - For FY26E, management forecasts total revenue between $40.5 billion and $40.9 billion, indicating a 7-8% year-over-year growth in constant currency, slightly below the consensus estimate of $41.5 billion. This has raised investor concerns as strong momentum in Data Cloud and Agentforce is expected to be offset by weakness in Marketing and Commerce Cloud [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 4QFY25, cRPO grew by 9% year-over-year (11% in constant currency), consistent with management's guidance. Revenue growth across segments included Sales/Service/Platform and others at 8%, Marketing and Commerce at 7%, and Integration and Cloud Analytics at 12% [2]. - Data Cloud and AI solutions showed robust performance, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Data Cloud and AI reaching $900 million, a 120% year-over-year increase. Agentforce has gained over 3,000 paying customers since its launch in October 2024 [3][4]. Operational Efficiency - Salesforce utilized Agentforce to enhance efficiency, achieving an 84% resolution rate across over 380,000 interactions. Non-GAAP operating margin rose by 1.6 percentage points year-over-year to 33.1% in 4QFY25, with expectations for a further increase to 34.0% in FY26E due to operational improvements [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for FY26E are set at $40.9 billion, with a growth rate of 8.0% year-over-year. Adjusted net income is expected to reach $10.99 billion, reflecting a 10.7% growth rate [5][12]. - The report indicates a decline in the projected revenue and operating income for FY27E and FY28E by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to previous estimates [12][13]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of $388.00 reflects a valuation discount relative to the industry average EV/EBITDA of 23x, as Salesforce's growth enters a more mature phase [14][16].