Economic Overview - The September PMI indicates resilience and divergence in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI rising significantly to 54.9 from 51.5 in August, suggesting robust domestic demand[1] - The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction at 47.2, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with a corresponding GDP growth rate of approximately 1.3%[2] Services Sector Insights - The services sector's new orders index surged to 59.4, the highest since March of the previous year, indicating strong demand[1] - Employment index in the services sector fell to 48.1, signaling a reduction in service employment despite overall sector expansion[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing new orders and production indices improved slightly to 46.1 and 49.8, respectively, but the sector continues to face challenges with inventory dropping to 43.9[2] - The prices index for manufacturing dropped to 48.3, entering contraction territory for the first time this year, reflecting a decrease in price pressures[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to transition from overheating to a cooler state, with a forecasted gradual increase in unemployment rates and a decline in non-farm payroll growth[2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement further rate cuts, with a potential 25 basis points reduction in November and December, followed by an additional 100 basis points in the following year[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to be significantly influenced by China's strong market policies, which, combined with a weaker US dollar and limited new supply, may drive aluminum prices up in the short term, serving as a key catalyst for Hongqiao [1] - The earnings forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been raised by 9-12% due to the upward adjustment of aluminum price assumptions, with a 1% increase in aluminum prices estimated to boost Hongqiao's earnings per share by 4% [1] - The new target price for Hongqiao is set at HK$19.6, up from HK$17.9, based on a consistent 9.8x P/E ratio for 2024, reflecting a potential industry recovery cycle [1][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 131,699 in 2022 to 151,734 in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.0% in 2021, 1.5% in 2022, and 10.5% in 2023 [2] - Adjusted net profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 8,702 in 2022 to 19,160 in 2026, with a significant jump in 2023 [2] - Adjusted earnings per share (in RMB) are forecasted to rise from 0.94 in 2022 to 2.02 in 2026 [2] Price Trends - The latest aluminum price in Shanghai has rebounded to RMB 20,395 per ton, reflecting a 3% increase since early September [1] - The average aluminum price for Q3 2024 is expected to be RMB 19,600 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [1] Supply Dynamics - China's aluminum production growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year in August, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 96.7% [1] - The report indicates limited meaningful supply growth due to the Chinese government's cap on production capacity [1] Valuation Metrics - Hongqiao's historical average P/E ratio over the past decade is 6x, with peaks at 10x during market cycles and lows around 3x [1][28] - The new target price reflects a valuation above the historical average, indicating potential upside based on recovery expectations [1][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao with a target price of HK$19.60, up from the previous target of HK$17.90, indicating a potential upside of 52.9% from the current price of HK$12.82 [5][34]. Core Views - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from China's pro-market policies, which are anticipated to increase aluminum prices in the near term. The report revises earnings forecasts for 2024E-2026E upward by 9-12% due to higher price assumptions for aluminum and alumina [3][34]. - The report highlights that a 1% increase in aluminum prices could boost Hongqiao's earnings by 4% [3]. - The company is currently trading at a mid-cycle valuation of 7x 2024E P/E, with an attractive yield of 7% [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 133,624 million in 2022 to RMB 151,734 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [4][36]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 11,461 million in 2023 to RMB 19,160 million in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][36]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The Shanghai aluminum price has rebounded to RMB 20,395 per ton, a 3% increase since early September, with an average price of RMB 19,600 per ton in Q3 2024, up 4% year-on-year [3][34]. - The report notes that alumina prices have seen a significant increase of 35% year-on-year, with forecasts indicating a 34% increase in Hongqiao's alumina ASP in 2H24 [3][34]. Supply and Demand Factors - China's aluminum production growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year in August, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 96.7%. Limited new supply is expected due to government-imposed capacity limits [3][34]. - The report estimates that construction and automobile sectors in China account for 16% and 14% of global aluminum demand, respectively, with government policies expected to stabilize demand expectations [3][34]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that Hongqiao has historically traded at an average forward P/E of 6x, with peaks at 10x and troughs around 3x. The new target price reflects a valuation of 9.8x 2024E P/E, which is 1.5 standard deviations above the historical average, suggesting a potential industry upcycle [3][34].

Investment Rating - Maintain **Buy** rating with a revised target price of HK$107.84, up from HK$97.05, reflecting a 24.2% upside potential [2][3] - The new target price is based on a 20x FY25E P/E multiple, up from 18x, due to improved investor sentiment following central government stimulus measures [2] Core Views - The company's new retail formats, such as the "ANTA Super Store," "ANTA Champion Store," "ANTA SNEAKERVERSE," "ANTA Arena," and "ANTA Palace," are successfully driving growth and expanding the customer base [1] - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a monthly sales estimate of RMB 1.5 million, outperforms regular ANTA stores, with annual sales per square meter reaching RMB 21,000, compared to RMB 16,000 for regular stores [6] - The company aims to open 10 ANTA Super Stores in FY24 and expand to 40 stores within three years, potentially contributing 2% to ANTA brand sales by FY26 [6] - The company's market segmentation strategy, including targeting mass-market, premium, and niche markets, is well-executed and supports future growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from FY23 to FY26E, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 16% [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 70.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 13.7 billion, representing a 12.8% YoY growth in revenue and 21.4% YoY growth in net profit [3][19] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at RMB 78.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 15.0 billion, reflecting an 11.4% YoY revenue growth and 9.7% YoY net profit growth [3][19] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB 87.1 billion, with net profit of RMB 17.6 billion, indicating an 11.2% YoY revenue growth and 17.5% YoY net profit growth [3][19] Store Performance and Strategy - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a floor area of 670 sqm (860 sqm including warehouse), achieves monthly sales exceeding RMB 1 million, with an average ticket size of RMB 330 [6] - The store offers a wide range of products, including training gear, professional sports, outdoor products, and sports culture, with approximately 1,000 SKUs [1] - The store's product mix differs from regular ANTA stores, with only 10% overlap in SKUs, and a higher proportion of evergreen products [1] - The company's strategy to attract new customers, particularly families and students, is successful, with over 90% of customers being first-time visitors to ANTA Group [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25E P/E of 16x is below its 5-year historical average of 25x, indicating undervaluation [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, at 24.7% in FY26E, compared to 26.0% in FY21A [3][19] - Peer comparison shows ANTA Sports trading at a lower P/E multiple compared to some international brands like Nike and Adidas, which trade at higher multiples [17] Growth Drivers - The company's new retail formats and market segmentation strategy are key growth drivers, supported by strong execution and financial performance [1][6] - The ANTA Super Store model, with its high sales per square meter and attractive pricing, is expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [6] - The company's focus on expanding its customer base, particularly through family and student segments, is expected to contribute to long-term growth [6]

27 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Anta Sports (2020 HK) Takeaways from the Anta Superstore visit The Anta Superstore we visited is fairly competitive and should be a decent growth driver onwards, supported by its superior price to quality and great variety of choices. Moreover, it can also acquire more family-type customers, and it has reasonable room for store expansion and decent financials (both sales per store and sales per sq.m are better t ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of $180.50 per ADS [1]. Core Insights - The 2024 Cloud Intelligence Conference highlighted Baidu's advancements in AI infrastructure, including the upgrades to the Baidu AI Heterogeneous Computing Platform 4.0 and the Qianfan Large Model Platform 3.0, which aim to enhance the industrialization of large models and improve enterprise productivity [1]. - Baidu's cloud business is expected to benefit from the growth in GPU cloud services, with revenue growth anticipated to steadily recover due to a leading infrastructure and technology position, as well as the cross-selling of CPU cloud services [1]. - The valuation of Baidu is based on a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) approach, with the cloud business valued at $32.2 per ADS, contributing 17.8% to the overall target valuation [1]. Summary by Sections - **Company Overview**: Baidu is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities through significant upgrades to its computing platforms and applications, which are expected to drive growth in its cloud business [1]. - **Market Position**: The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for GPU cloud services, which is projected to lead to improved revenue and profit margins [1]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price of $180.50 per ADS reflects a strong outlook for Baidu's cloud business, with specific emphasis on the contribution from GPU services [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $180.50, indicating a potential upside of 90.4% from the current price of $94.81 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements made by the company during the 2024 Cloud Intelligence Conference, focusing on the upgrade of its AI platforms, which are expected to enhance productivity and cloud service usage [1]. - The company's cloud business is projected to recover steadily, benefiting from scale effects and a higher profit margin due to the increasing revenue share from GPU cloud services [1]. - The valuation based on the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) method assigns a value of $32.2 per ADS for the cloud business, contributing to 17.8% of the total target valuation [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported sales revenue of 134,598 million RMB for FY23A, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23A was 28,747 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 39.0% compared to the previous year [2]. - The forecast for FY24E anticipates a slight decline in adjusted net profit to 27,964 million RMB, representing a decrease of 2.7% [2]. Revenue and Profitability Trends - Sales revenue is expected to grow from 135,827 million RMB in FY24E to 157,928 million RMB by FY26E, with annual growth rates of 0.9%, 8.2%, and 7.5% respectively [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 20.6% in FY24E, with a gradual increase to 20.2% by FY26E [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.5 in FY23A to 9.4 by FY26E, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 0.9 in FY23A to 0.7 by FY26E, further suggesting attractive valuation levels [7]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for FY23A was reported at 36,615 million RMB, with projections of 37,930 million RMB for FY24E [6]. - The net cash flow from financing activities is expected to improve significantly, with a forecast of 1,997 million RMB by FY26E [6].

2024 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 超预期幅度降息但指引偏鹰 美联储以超预期 50 个基点降息开启宽松周期，在决议声明中强调就业目标，显 示防止就业市场进一步放缓的决心。点阵图对美国经济预测仍然乐观，小幅下 调对今年 GDP 增速和今明两年 PCE 通胀预测，小幅上调对今明两年失业率预 测，预测更多降息从明年前移至今年。鲍威尔在记者会上释放鹰派信号，强调 此次降息是预防性措施，并不意味着未来继续大幅降息。美股冲高回落，国债 收益率和美元指数先跌后涨，部分投资者选择"卖事实"。此次降息将提振经 济预期和资产价格，但可能延长通胀降至目标的时间。预计美联储今年可能仍 有 2 次合计 50 个基点降息，明年可能有 4 次合计 100 个基点降息。美元降息将 增加国际流动性供应，降低国际资金成本，推动收益率曲线陡峭化。美元降息 将随着美欧和美日经济增速差收窄，可能带动美元指数温和回落，利好新兴市 场货币与股市，但利好程度仍要看新兴市场自身经济基本面和投资回报率前 景。美元降息周期将提振人民币汇率，减轻汇率对中国利率政策制约，对港股 提振作用大于 A 股。 美联储超预期 ...

2024 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 互联网 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2Q 业绩总结及选股策略更新：确定性或仍为主线 | | | | | 业绩后我们认为未来 6 个月的重要选股主线： 1 ）公司基本面稳健，且未来营收 及盈利增长确定性较高； 2 ...

16 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Adobe (ADBE US) Solid 3QFY24 results but soft guidance may weigh on short-term sentiment Adobe announced solid 3QFY24 results, but 4QFY24 guidance was softer than expected: 3QFY24 total revenue was up by 11% YoY to US$5.41bn, in line with consensus estimate; 3QFY24 non-GAAP net income grew by 11% YoY to US$2.08bn, in line with consensus. Digital Media net new ARR was US$504mn in 3QFY24 and c.10% ahead of the company guidance, as ...