轻工制造 /行业投资策略周报 /2024.06.02 政策密集落地，期待家居板块修复 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 轻工行业周报 最近12月市场表现 核心观点  本周行情回顾：本周（2024.5.27-2024.5.31）申万轻工指数收报1962.49点， 轻工制造 沪深300 周涨跌幅为-2.80%，跑输沪深300指数2.21pct，在31个申万一级行业中排名 7% 第 27。本周轻工制造细分板块普跌，文娱用品/造纸/家居用品/包装印刷分别- 0% 1.81%/-2.03%/-3.04%/-3.64%。 -6% -13%  一线城市政策密集落地，信号意义明显。继“517”地产新政后，全国多 -20% 城市陆续落地执行，上海为首个率先降首付、调整贷款利率下限的一线城市， -26% 深圳、广州于5月28日官宣落地降首付降利率政策，一线城市中已有三城跟 进。降低住房贷款首付比有助于降低购房门槛和购房成本，支持居民刚性和改 善性住房需求；调整首套和二套房贷利率下限，有助于降低居民还贷压力，提 分析师 吕明璋 SAC证书编号：S0160523030001 振居民消费信心，刺激经济活力。2024年4月30日 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant increase in free cash flow, which rose by 18% year-over-year, reflecting higher capital expenditures to support cloud and AI offerings [28] - The expected capital expenditures for 2024 are projected to increase materially, driven primarily by investments in AI infrastructure [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for AI computing power is growing exponentially, doubling approximately every 1-2 months, necessitating stable and efficient digital infrastructure [12] - The latest generation of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture GPUs is being widely adopted in data center servers, enhancing performance and efficiency through the use of copper interconnects [30][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global market for passive direct attach cables (DAC) and active electrical cables (AEC) is expected to grow at compound annual growth rates of 25% and 45%, respectively [19] - Data center energy consumption is projected to rise significantly, with global data centers consuming 460 TWh in 2022, potentially increasing to over 1,000 TWh by 2026 [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on upgrading copper interconnects to higher bandwidth rates, with a clear trend towards 224Gbps and beyond, which is expected to lower costs significantly [36] - The strategy includes leveraging the advantages of copper interconnects in terms of low power consumption and cost-effectiveness in short-distance communication scenarios [29][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the critical role of copper interconnects in data centers, especially in light of rising energy costs and the need for efficient cooling solutions [20][24] - The outlook for the AI sector remains positive, with significant investments expected from major cloud providers to support AI-related infrastructure [28][26] Other Important Information - The company emphasizes the importance of signal integrity and reduced transmission losses in the development of high-speed copper cables, which are essential for meeting the demands of modern data centers [41][44] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like NVIDIA and cloud service providers increasingly adopting copper solutions for their data center needs [30][35] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected capital expenditures for 2024? - The company anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures year-over-year, primarily driven by higher infrastructure investments to support growth in AI [28] Question: How is the demand for AI computing power evolving? - The demand for AI computing power is experiencing exponential growth, doubling approximately every 1-2 months, which is driving the need for enhanced digital infrastructure [12] Question: What advantages do copper interconnects offer in data centers? - Copper interconnects provide significant advantages in terms of low power consumption, cost-effectiveness, and efficiency in short-distance communication scenarios [29][46]

商贸零售 /行业投资策略周报 /2024.06.02 性价比消费主线凸显，短期影响因素持续消化 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 核心观点  文旅：关注端午短途游及流量热点地区。建议关注整个旅游 beta 带动及 最近12月市场表现 文旅配套企业的主题带动：（1）估值层面，三特索道，九华旅游，黄山旅 游，宋城演艺四个公司成长性高、且当前位置相对合理。（2）国内旅游需 商贸零售 沪深300 求释放确定性强，端午出行以短途周边游为主。民航出行"供需两旺",旅客 7% 运输量和航班量将较 2019 年增长 6%，与 2023 年持平，国际航线客运航 0% 班修复至 2019 年 75%。携程周边游预订量同比增长 20%，新流量“爆点” -8% 新疆地区受到《我的阿勒泰》剧集带动，同程搜索热度同比上涨超过2倍， -15% 马蜂窝近一周热度涨幅高达 233%。（3）建议关注近期通高铁主题的个股 九华旅游、黄山旅游、天目湖客流增速有望提升，同时持续关注西域旅游 -22% （西部旅游开发+低空经济+摘帽）。 -30%  酒店：酒店数据周度阶段性小幅回落，2024年第21周全国OCC较2019 年同期-6.19pct ...

Northbound Capital Flow - The largest net inflow sectors this week were cyclical (2.46 billion CNY), technology (1.32 billion CNY), and public services (0.93 billion CNY) [1] - The sectors with the largest net outflows were consumer (-6.10 billion CNY), large financials (-1.84 billion CNY), and pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (-1.81 billion CNY) [1] - The top five stocks with net inflows were Zijin Mining (0.90 billion CNY), Changjiang Power (0.88 billion CNY), and Lianqi Technology (0.69 billion CNY) [1] - The largest net outflows were from Kweichow Moutai (-2.39 billion CNY) and China Merchants Bank (-0.79 billion CNY) [1] Global Capital Flow - Global capital inflows into bonds and equities were 5.1 billion USD and 1.8 billion USD, respectively, while outflows from the money market were 6.7 billion USD [16] - The 10-year to 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spread has narrowed, indicating a shift in capital towards U.S. bonds [4] - The current 10-year U.S.-China Treasury yield spread is -2.22%, reflecting a widening inversion [9] - In the U.S. equity market, the largest inflows were into utilities (0.35 billion USD) and consumer goods (0.14 billion USD), while the largest outflows were from technology (-1.19 billion USD) and financials (-0.81 billion USD) [45] Southbound Capital Flow - Southbound capital saw net inflows of 62.9 billion HKD into financials, 43.7 billion HKD into energy, and 27.9 billion HKD into consumer discretionary [10] - The sectors with the largest net outflows were real estate (-5 billion HKD) and utilities (-1.2 billion HKD) [10]

强化逆周期和跨周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性合理充裕。3）坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，加快建设金融强国，建 设现代中央银行制度，着力推动高质量发展。4）深入推进利率市场化改革，发挥央行政策利率引导作用，持续释放LPR改革效能和存款利率市场化调整机制重要作用。 图11 机械子行业营业收入同比增速（%） -20 -10 0 10 20 30 22/4 22/10 23/4 23/10 24/4 通用设备 专用设备 铁路船舶 电气机械 仪器仪表 化工：本周PTA产业链产品价格上行，负荷率均回升 生产 本周PTA产业链产品价格上行，主因原油价格震荡上涨， PTA装置负荷仍处低位，反映供应端偏紧，推动PTA产业 链产品价格均有上行。由于需求方面纺织市场整体表现良 好，聚酯工厂去库明显，新产品受到市场欢迎，终端需求 有所增强，带动本周PTA产业链负荷率上行，其中PTA工 厂、聚酯工厂、江浙织机均上行。本周纯碱开工率下行， 石油沥青装置开工率上行。由于生产偏弱，叠加下游订单 需求旺盛，本周涤纶POY库存有所去化。 11 钢铁：本周钢价上行、毛利改善，钢材产量增速回升，厂库补、社库 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][29]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a leading market share of 33.86% in the online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners during the first week of the 618 shopping festival, marking an increase of 11.39 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. - The average selling price of the company's products increased by 15.2% to 4163 yuan during the same period, driven by the launch of upgraded models [4][12]. - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum with its new products, particularly the P10S Pro and G20S, which ranked among the top 10 best-selling models [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The company topped the domestic market share during the 618 shopping festival, achieving a 33.86% online sales market share [4][9]. - The average price of the company's products rose to 4163 yuan, reflecting a 15.2% increase due to the introduction of higher-priced models [4][12]. 2. Product Performance - The P10S Pro and G20S models were among the top 10 best-selling robotic vacuum cleaners, with market shares of 10.01% and 3.94% respectively [4][16][17]. - The G20S model, priced at an average of 5706 yuan, is noted for its strong performance in the high-end market segment [4][26]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 112.73 billion yuan, 145.59 billion yuan, and 186.86 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][29]. - Corresponding net profits are expected to be 25.86 billion yuan, 33.16 billion yuan, and 42.24 billion yuan for the same years [5][29].

以报告发布日后 6 个月内，证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅为标准： 买入：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅大于 10%； 增持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在 5%～10%之间； 中性：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅在-5%～5%之间； 减持：相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数涨幅小于-5%； 无评级：由于我们无法获取必要的资料，或者公司面临无法预见结果的重大不确定性事件，或者其他原因，致使我们无法 给出明确的投资评级。 A 股市场代表性指数以沪深 300 指数为基准；香港市场代表性指数以恒生指数为基准；美国市场代表性指数以标普 500 指 数为基准。 本报告仅供财通证券股份有限公司的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公司的当然客户。 本报告的信息来源于已公开的资料，本公司不保证该等信息的准确性、完整性。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见及推测只 提供给客户作参考之用，并非作为或被视为出售或购买证券或其他投资标的邀请或向他人作出邀请。 本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证券或投资标的价格、价值及投资 收入可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [76]. Core Viewpoints - The company leverages its alkylation reaction technology to produce high-end and customized products, positioning itself as a leader in the fine chemical sector [77]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 1.25 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.32 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 264 million, 382 million, and 494 million yuan [78]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of specialty polymer monomers and additives, contributing to the manufacturing and performance enhancement of downstream polymer materials [35][36]. - Established in June 2010, the company has continuously improved its product quality and expanded its production capacity, with a focus on high-performance polymer materials [8]. Product Analysis - The company produces high-value specialty chemical products, including divinylbenzene and α-methylstyrene, which are used in ion exchange resins and modified acrylic resins [3][43]. - The company has a robust production capacity, with existing and planned capacities of 85,000 tons/year for specialty polymer monomers and 28,000 tons/year for specialty additives [36][84]. Market Trends - The demand for ion exchange resins in water treatment is expected to grow, with the market for ion exchange resins in China projected to exceed 300,000 tons by 2026 [16]. - The domestic market for acrylic resins is experiencing a significant supply gap, with α-methylstyrene expected to reduce reliance on imported products [43][134]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2018 to 2023 [37][75]. - The company's net profit for 2023 was 213 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.50% [37][75]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its ongoing capacity expansion projects, with new production lines anticipated to come online by October 2025, which will enhance its market position and profitability [90][116]. - The report forecasts a stable gross margin for the company's products, driven by their high-end positioning and customization capabilities [151][162].

大家好欢迎参加台通计算机智能驾驶软件及数据壁垒解析电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态现在开始播放你的声明声明播放完毕后主持人可直接开始发言 本次会议请面向财通证券的受邀嘉宾在任何情况下财通证券研究人员及演讲嘉宾所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者应充分了解各类投资风险自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险未经财通证券及演讲嘉宾书面授权许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发复制引用会议的内容与观点包括不得制作镜像及指向链接 不得传播音频视频图片文字等内容如有上述行为财通证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利会议助理我们现在可以开始了吗可以了主持人可以开始发言了各位投资者晚上好 欢迎各位来参加我们今天的以智能驾驶的软件和数据壁垒为主题的电话会然后我们也是邀请到了国内在智能驾驶软件端非常有经验的一位专家首先我们在这次会议里面会探讨三个大类的问题第一个大类是关于咱们的智能驾驶目前的 一个整体方案的壁垒到底是哪个到底是在哪里第二点是关于咱们现在海内外的一个智能驾驶的进展以及对比第三块也是大家比较关心的就是关于特斯拉的情况 然后首先我先来问一下关于咱们软件这块的一个情况请问专家关于软件端我们知道智能驾驶现在整体链条会分为感知融 ...

江淮汽车(600418) / 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2024.05.31 与华为合作持续》 肥西超级工厂开启招聘, 因 投资评级:增持(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | 基本數据 | 2024-05-31 | | 收盘价(元) | 16.11 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.84 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.13 | | 总股本(亿股) | 21.84 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | 邢重阳 分析师 SAC 证书编号： S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 李渤 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521050001 libo(@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《发力高端智能纯电动乘用车,华为 赋能未来可期》 2024-03-06 2. 《1月销量同比大增, 海外市场需求 持续旺盛》 2024-02-20 3. 《12 月销量同比稳健增长,持续推 核心观点 � & � � � 事件:根据中国证券报的内容,5月30日江淮肥西"超级工厂"已经开启招 聘,该工厂负责生产江淮和华为的合作 ...