交银国际研究 消息快报 银行业 2 月信贷社融数据点评 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5331 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 银行 2025 年 3 月 17 日 考虑到 1 月新增贷款高于市场预期，并创下新高，2 月新增贷款同比少增 主要由于信贷投放更为靠前。2 月新增人民币贷款 1.01 万亿元，同比少增 4400 亿元，新增贷款主要来自企业部门。从居民部门来看，居民短期贷 款净减少 2741 亿元，同比少减 2127 亿元；居民中长期贷款净减少 1150 亿元，同比多减 112 亿元。从企业部门来看，企业短期贷款新增 3300 亿 元，同比少增 2000 亿元；企业中长期贷款新增 5400 亿元，同比少增 7500 亿元；新增企业票据融资 1693 亿元，同比多增 4460 亿元。新增非银机构 贷款 2844 亿元，同比少增 1201 亿元。 新增社融主要来自政府债券。2月新增社融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter automotive gross margin fell below expectations at 19.7%, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitments and promotional activities [2][8]. - Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 25.2% to RMB 3.5 billion, supported by RMB 400 million in interest income [2][8]. - The company faces significant challenges in sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness, leading to uncertainties in revenue growth and gross margin for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and RMB 157.98 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, and 9.4% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.03 billion in 2024, before slightly increasing to RMB 8.56 billion in 2025 [3][16]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decrease from 22.2% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [17]. Sales and Market Competition - The company anticipates first-quarter sales between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, reflecting the impact of recent price cuts [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with new entrants in the extended-range vehicle segment, which may affect the company's market share and sales volume [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities [2][8]. - The company has guided first-quarter sales to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 units, indicating that price reductions have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 123.851 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 144.460 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [3][16]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 11.704 billion, with a significant decline of 673.8% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a net profit of RMB 8.032 billion, a further decrease of 32.2% [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 5.95, dropping to RMB 4.03 in 2024, with a forecasted EPS of RMB 4.29 for 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report highlights that the competition in the automotive market is shifting from incremental to stock competition, with more competitors entering the range-extended vehicle segment in 2025. This includes the launch of new models from competitors that may impact the company's sales base [8]. - The report expresses concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain its gross margin, particularly with the introduction of new electric models expected to have lower margins, which could further pressure overall profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6][7]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the most to new business value, accounting for 35% with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have also shown significant growth of 24% and 22%, respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating ongoing growth potential in that market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6][7]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to increase by 7%, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to grow by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6][7]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan announced [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2025E [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 7.0% in 2025E [5][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation over time [5][6]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 今日焦点 | 富途控股 | | | FUTU US | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 季度盈利超预期，2025 | | 年客户增长指引强劲 | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 | 107.52 | 目标价: 美元 135.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +25.6% | | 万丽, CFA, FRM | | wanli@bocomgroup.com | | 富途 4 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 19.52 亿港元，显著高于我们和市场预 期，同比/环比增长 105%/40%，创下单季历史新高。新增付费用户数量 显著超预期，2025 年指引强劲，公司指引 2025 年新增付费用户 80 万 人。4 季度交易金额创历史新高。2025 年 1 季度，尽管美股下跌，但由 于中国资产表现较好，预计交易量在较高基数上仍有望环比增长。财富 管理业务稳步提升。 2025 年 2 月以来，DeepSeek 引发投资者对中国 AI 相关标的的投资热情 和价值重估，港股和中概成交活跃，公司充分受益于这一趋势。我们预 计富途多元化的海外市场和产品 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业月报 电池排产提升，关注固态电池、大圆柱产业化落地 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 宁德时代 | 300750 CH | 买入 | 314.11 | 254.50 | 16.529 | 17.999 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 3.92 | 3.31 | NA | | 亿纬锂能 | 300014 CH | 买入 | 56.51 | 50.49 | 2.779 | 3.502 | 18.2 | 14.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company,阅文集团 (772 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 24.85 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the delay in the 新丽 project impacts the 2024 profit expectations, while growth is anticipated in short dramas and derivative IP businesses [2]. - The company is expected to face a net loss of RMB 150-250 million for 2024, primarily due to non-cash goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of 新丽传媒 [5]. - Revenue expectations for 2024 have been slightly reduced by 1% to RMB 7.7 billion, with online business remaining stable and core IP operations expected to grow by 34% [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in core IP operations, driven by the integration of 腾讯动漫 and the launch of short dramas [5][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2026 are as follows: RMB 7,012 million (2023), RMB 7,695 million (2024E), RMB 7,882 million (2025E), and RMB 8,220 million (2026E), with a projected growth rate of 9.8% in 2024 [3][8][13]. - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1,130 million (2023), RMB 1,139 million (2024E), RMB 1,445 million (2025E), and RMB 1,568 million (2026E), with a notable increase of 23.7% in 2025 [3][8][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in the adjusted net profit expectation for 2024 by 18% to RMB 1.1 billion, reflecting a profit margin of 15% [5][8]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 1.4 billion for 2025, with a reference to a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for comparable quality content and copyright companies [5][8]. - The target price has been slightly adjusted from HKD 29.00 to HKD 28.00, maintaining a neutral stance on the stock [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 23.10, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HKD 18.38 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion. This growth is partly attributed to the increase in market trading volume and a decrease in the fire power price difference [2][7]. - The target price adjustment reflects a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 22% and 21% respectively, due to anticipated limitations on wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices [2][7]. - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio of 6.8 for 2025 is below the historical average, suggesting that the market has partially priced in uncertainties regarding electricity prices and utilization hours for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecasts - The updated financial forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.132 billion, with a slight decrease in the forecast for 2025 to HKD 105.084 billion, reflecting a 6.8% reduction from previous estimates [6][15]. - Operating profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 21.965 billion, with a decrease in 2025 to HKD 21.947 billion, indicating a 19.2% drop from prior forecasts [6][15]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be HKD 12.727 billion, with a forecasted decline to HKD 13.954 billion in 2025, representing a 21.9% reduction from earlier predictions [6][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s installed capacity is projected to increase significantly, with total capacity expected to reach 68,507 MW by 2024 and 78,507 MW by 2025, with a growing share of renewable energy [8]. - The report anticipates that the proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity will rise from 48% in 2024 to 53% in 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation breakdown indicates that the thermal power segment is valued at HKD 16.837 billion, while the renewable energy segment is valued at HKD 102.778 billion, leading to a total valuation of HKD 119.6 billion [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a core profit growth of approximately 15.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching HKD 12.7 billion [2][7] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 23.1, reflecting a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price [2][7][13] - The adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are due to changes in wind and solar project utilization rates and average electricity prices, with profit estimates reduced by 22% and 21% respectively [2][7] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 104.1 billion, with a slight decrease in operating profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 [6][15] - The expected net profit for 2024 is HKD 12.7 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.2% [6][15] - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%, with dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.9% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is expected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with a significant rise in renewable energy capacity [8] - The total electricity sales volume is projected to grow from 207,638 GWh in 2024 to 223,796 GWh in 2025 [8] Valuation - The valuation of the thermal power segment is based on a 0.7x 2025E P/B ratio, while the renewable energy segment is valued at 8.0x 2025E P/E [9] - The total estimated value of the company is HKD 119.6 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 23.10 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20, reflecting a potential upside of 0.4% from the current price of $7.17 [1][19][22]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 10,015 million, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1,239 million due to increased overseas product investments [1][6][24]. - The company announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, representing a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2,636 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94 million [6][16]. - The adjusted gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 36%, reflecting a decline due to changes in revenue structure and increased operational costs [6][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][4]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The revenue forecast for 2025 is maintained at RMB 10,015 million, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 at RMB 1,239 million and RMB 1,354 million, respectively [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1,217 million, with an operating profit margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Context - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 7%, with a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84 [4][24]. - The company’s main platform, Momo, and its subsidiary, Tantan, continue to face challenges due to reduced user engagement and competition in the social networking space [6][16].