交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 37.19 | 美元 72.00↓ | +93.6% | | | 传奇生物 (LEGN US) | | | | | | Carvykti 逐季放量能见度高，指引 2Q26 经营层面盈亏平衡，维持买入 公司 4Q24 净利润转正，达到 0.26 亿美元，扣除 1.1 亿美元汇兑收益后与我们 此前的预期基本一致。管理层指引，账上现金 11 亿美元足以支持公司运营至 2Q26，届时公司有望在经营层面实现盈亏平衡。我们认为公司当前股价远未 反映 Carvykti 长期市场潜力，且基本已完全反映对竞争格局变化的预期，重申 买入评级，略微下调目标价至 72 美元。 1 年股价表现 买入 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% LEGN US 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.45 | 港元 134.69↑ | +38.2% | | | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) | | | | | | 产品大年，受惠智驾普及，维持买入 个股评级 买入 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 97.45 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.05 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 150,811.67 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 42.08 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 108.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 51.63 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 港股估值重估仍有空间，外围不确定性增强 两会政策指引符合预期，AI持续进化，港股"空中加油"： 市场关注重心或将回到宏观基本面和企业业绩验证，重视外围扰动与短期调整压力： 市场策略 港股周报 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 2025年3月12日 2025年3月12日 2 • 政策支持与技术进步共振，港股过去一周续创新高，领跑全球主要股指：1）技术层面，中国内地AI持续进步，上周阿 里发布新AI开源模型+内地创业公司推出通用AIAgent智能体产品Manus，继续强化科技主线叙事；2）两会政策符合 预期，并延续了"924"以来的积极定调，产业政策层面强调对消费、科技领域的支持，而后续政策持续兑现有望成为 行情上涨的新催化剂。 • 海外流动性延续缓和，港股AI科技资产迎来资金配置机会。特朗普政策不 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 12 日 今日焦点 | 宏观策略 | | | --- | --- | | 港股估值重估仍有空间，外围不确定性增强 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 两会政策指引符合预期，AI 持续进化，港股"空中加油"： 政策支持与技术进步共振，港股过去一周续创新高，领跑全球主要股指 ：1）技术层面，中国内地 AI 持续进步，上周阿里发布新 AI 开源模型+ 内地创业公司推出通用 AI Agent 智能体产品 Manus，继续强化科技主线 叙事；2）两会政策符合预期，并延续了"924"以来的积极定调，产业 政策层面强调对消费、科技领域的支持，而后续政策持续兑现有望成为 行情上涨的新催化剂。 海外流动性延续缓和，港股 AI 科技资产迎来资金配置机会。特朗普政策 不确定性影响下，美国一系列经济指标转弱，降息预期再度升温，美元 、美债利率回落，美股波动增强，"Magnificent 7"连续出现调整。海 外流动性缓和，且作为美国之外，汇聚全球主要 AI 上市标的港股市场， 有望成为短期追求稳定性和 AI 敞口的资金战略性配置选择。当前港 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report revises the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, based on a consistent price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, JD Logistics reported a revenue of RMB 52.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with adjusted net profit rising 23% to RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 4.3% [6][7]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% in 2025, supported by external business growth and prior investments enhancing market reach and fulfillment efficiency [6][9]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate total revenue at RMB 202.1 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 22.5 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.4 billion, maintaining a net profit margin of 4.1% [15][16]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The updated forecasts for 2025 include: - Revenue: RMB 202,053 million (up from RMB 194,624 million, +3.8%) - Adjusted net profit: RMB 8,384 million (up from RMB 7,910 million, +6.0%) [5][15]. - The report anticipates continued growth in external customer contributions, with external revenue projected to reach RMB 107,657 million in 2025 [9][15]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 102.71 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 20.78% [4][11]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 7.55, indicating significant price movement within the year [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US with a target price increase from $60 to $62, indicating a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of $43.92 [1][2][15]. Core Insights - JD US has returned to double-digit revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2024, driven by various business segments and favorable policies [1][6]. - The company is expected to continue this growth trend into Q1 2025, with revenue and profit forecasts adjusted upward by 3% and 5% respectively for 2025 [1][6]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the electric product category, which saw a 16% increase due to trade-in policies, and a consistent double-digit growth in supermarket sales [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, total revenue reached RMB 306.08 billion, with product sales contributing RMB 246.50 billion, and service revenue at RMB 59.58 billion [7]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 34% to RMB 11.30 billion [6][7]. - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be RMB 1,243.37 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.3% [5][17]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The new revenue forecast for 2025 is RMB 1,243.37 billion, up from the previous estimate of RMB 1,207.02 billion, marking a 3% increase [5]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 51.90 billion, an increase from the prior forecast of RMB 48.63 billion, also reflecting an 8.2% growth [5][17]. - The report anticipates a stable profit margin while maintaining user investment, with a focus on cautious investment in new business areas [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in profit for the full year 2024, despite a slight reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 due to lower-than-expected wind and solar power generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024/25 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment despite the downward revision in profit forecasts [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, down 6.4%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, a reduction of 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a decrease of 9.5%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Power Generation Capacity and Sales - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 31,599 MW in 2022 to 65,759 MW by 2026, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [6]. - The company's electricity sales are expected to rise from 108,171 GWh in 2022 to 146,986 GWh by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the total value at RMB 42,632 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 3.72 [10]. - The valuation for different segments includes coal power at 0.70x 2025E P/B, hydropower at 0.75x, wind power at 8.5x P/E, and solar power also at 8.5x P/E [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes support for the development of innovative drugs, highlighting opportunities in undervalued innovation and performance recovery [1][4]. - The report suggests that recent government policies regarding drug pricing, centralized procurement, and the establishment of an innovative drug catalog are expected to drive industry growth and improve investment sentiment [4][5]. - The pharmaceutical sector is currently viewed as having significant recovery potential due to its valuation being at historical lows, with expectations of further favorable policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, indicating a bullish outlook with "Buy" ratings for several firms, including AstraZeneca (AZN US), BeiGene (6160 HK), and others, with target prices significantly above current prices [3][26]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is noted to be 11.1 times, suggesting a relatively low valuation compared to historical standards [17]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.8% during the week, with the healthcare index declining by 1.6%, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [12]. - Sub-sectors such as healthcare technology showed positive growth (+4.7%), while pharmaceuticals and healthcare equipment experienced declines of -3.0% and -4.0%, respectively [12]. Government Policies - The government work report outlines several key initiatives, including optimizing drug procurement policies, enhancing quality assessments, and supporting the development of traditional Chinese medicine [4][5]. - Financial support for basic medical services is set to increase, with per capita fiscal subsidies for resident medical insurance and public health services raised by 30 RMB and 5 RMB, respectively [4]. Company Developments - Notable advancements include the initiation of clinical trials for innovative drugs by companies such as Kangfang Biopharma and Innovent Biologics, indicating a robust pipeline of new therapies [9][10][11]. - BeiGene's recent FDA approval for its drug in the treatment of advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma marks a significant milestone for the company [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 1.17, indicating a potential upside of 46.3% from the current price of HKD 0.80 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's core performance for 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, driven by a significant increase in electricity sales volume in the second half of the year, with a projected sales volume growth of 17% to 4,472 GWh [2][7]. - The new electricity pricing policy is anticipated to stabilize the prices of existing projects, reducing uncertainty in profitability [7]. - The company is transitioning its debt from HKD to RMB, resulting in a significant decrease in financing costs, with an expected average borrowing rate of below 3% by 2025 [7]. - The report forecasts a moderate growth in dividends per share from 2025 to 2027, with an attractive current dividend yield of 7.7% [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 2,435 million in 2023 to RMB 2,606 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 993 million in 2023 to RMB 858 million in 2024, a decrease of 12% [3][15]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.10 in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 0.12 in 2025 [3][15]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 7.9x in 2024, decreasing to 6.5x in 2025 [3][15]. Key Business Metrics - The company plans to add 860 MW of new capacity in 2024, with total installed capacity expected to reach 4,555 MW [9]. - The average electricity price is projected to decline from RMB 0.67 per kWh in 2023 to RMB 0.61 per kWh in 2024 [9]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 67.9% in 2023 to 65.6% in 2024, with a slight recovery anticipated in subsequent years [9].