| 证券 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 107.52 | 美元 | 美元 135.00↑ | +25.6% | | | 富途控股 (FUTU US) | | | | | | 4 季度盈利超预期，2025 | | 年客户增长指引强劲 | | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% FUTU US MSCI中国指数 股份资料 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 4 季度盈利超预期。富途2024 年4 季度Non-GAAP 净利润为19.52 亿港元， 显著高于我们和市场预期，同比/环比增长 105%/40%，创下单季历史新 高。盈利超预期，主要由于 4 季度交易金额和孖展贷款增长均超预期。 2024 全年 Non-GAAP 净利润为 57.68 亿港元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU US) with a target price raised to $135.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.6% from the current closing price of $107.52 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - Futu's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with Non-GAAP net profit reaching HKD 19.52 billion, a significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105% and 40% respectively, marking a record high for a single quarter [5]. - The company reported strong guidance for customer growth in 2025, with a forecast of 800,000 new paying users, representing a growth rate of 33% based on the existing market [5]. - Futu's trading volume in Q4 reached HKD 2.89 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 202%, with 72% of the volume coming from U.S. stocks [5]. - The wealth management business is steadily improving, with assets under management growing to HKD 110.9 billion, accounting for 15% of client assets, an increase of 3 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent surge in investor interest in Chinese AI-related stocks, benefiting Futu's business structure and customer growth [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Futu are as follows: HKD 10,008 million in 2023, HKD 13,590 million in 2024, and HKD 16,812 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, 36%, and 24% respectively [4][14]. - Net profit is expected to grow from HKD 4,279 million in 2023 to HKD 6,556 million in 2025E, with corresponding growth rates of 46%, 27%, and 21% [4][14]. - The report indicates an increase in the price-to-earnings ratio from 27.3 in 2023 to 17.8 in 2025E, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][15].

美国 2025 年 2 月 CPI 同比增 2.8%，低于预期 2.9%和上月 3.0%；2 月 CPI 环比增 0.2%，预期 0.3%，上月 0.5%；2 月核心 CPI 同比 3.1%，预期 3.2%，上月 3.3%；2 月核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，上月 0.4%。 2 月 CPI 数据全面低于预期，缓解了市场近期对于滞胀的担忧。从数据 结构层面来看，本次 CPI 的回落来自于食品、能源、商品和服务全部分 项的贡献，一定程度上体现了近一段时间美债利率上涨和特朗普政府裁 员、缩减支出等收缩性行为对于需求端的抑制。尽管短期通胀有所放缓 ，但服务业价格，以及关税带来的商品价格上行隐忧犹存。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 14 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通胀暂缓，隐忧犹存—美国 | 2 | 月 | CPI | 点评 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | | | | 后市观察：特朗普政策高度不确定性导致当前宏观能见度较低，美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price adjusted to $7.20 from $7.40, indicating a potential upside of 0.4% [1][2][19]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The revenue forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, but the adjusted net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% to RMB 1.24 billion due to increased investment in potential new overseas products [1][6]. - The company has announced a special dividend of $0.30 per ADS, with a payout ratio of 29% and a dividend yield of 4%. Additionally, the share repurchase program has been extended to March 31, 2027, with an increased buyback amount of $200 million [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the total revenue was RMB 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 230 million, down 55% year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time film production cost of RMB 94.1 million [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12%, a decline of 5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased proportion of revenue from new overseas applications and rising operational costs [6][16]. - The company expects a 4% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with the main platform's live streaming business under pressure [6][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 10.015 billion, with the main platform MOMO expected to generate RMB 9.328 billion and Tantan projected at RMB 683 million [5][17]. - The adjusted gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.630 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 36.2% [5][17]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.217 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 12.2% [5][17]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 billion, which is lower than its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q4 2024 [1][6]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $4.84, with a year-to-date change of -7% [4][19].

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 3 月 13 日 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E | | | | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 阿斯利康 | AZN US | 买入 | 93.30 | 75.57 | 4.606 | 5.209 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 2.56 | 2.22 | NA | | 百济神州 | 6160 HK | 买入 | 208. ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 房地产行业月报 低基数下销售跌幅收窄， 小阳春成色或可期待 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 新鸿基地产 | 16 HK | 买入 | 96.10 | 76.00 | 8.425 | 9.058 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 5.5 | | 华润置地 | 1109 HK | 买入 | 24.94 | 26.65 | 3.664 | 3.782 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 0.57 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 今日焦点 | 传奇生物 | | | LEGN US | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carvykti 逐季放量能见度高，指引 | | 2Q26 经营层面 | 评级: 买入 | | 盈亏平衡，维持买入 | | | | | 收盘价: 美元 37.19 目标价: | 美元 | 72.00↓ | 潜在涨幅: +93.6% | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | | 2025 年指引强劲表现，维持买入评级：2025 年业绩指引包括：1）生命 科学业务收入增长 10-15%，毛利率保持在 50%以上；2）CDMO 业务收 入增长 15-20%，礼新项目首付款分成将全额确认为 2025 年收入；3）百 斯杰人民币计价收入增长 20-25%，毛利率提升至 45%左右。基于此，我 们调整公司 2025-26 年收入预测至 9.1 亿/7.9 亿美元、净利润预测至 2.4 亿/1.8 亿美元，扣除礼新交易影响后分別对应 14%/17%的 2025/26 年收 入增速。我们维持买入评级和 28.75 港元的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 0.90, indicating a potential upside of 53.3% from the current price of HKD 0.59 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's profit margins have improved due to better discount control and operational efficiency, with a stable performance expected in 2025 [6]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue decline of 8.0% to RMB 18.45 billion, but it expects to maintain a stable profit margin through cost control and efficiency improvements [6]. - The company plans to enhance its multi-channel strategy, including the introduction of new brands and digital transformation initiatives to capture new growth opportunities [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,064 million in 2023, RMB 18,454 million in 2024, and RMB 18,831 million in 2025, with a projected growth of 2.0% in 2025 [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 546 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.1% [5][9]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 34.5% in 2025, up from 34.2% in 2024 [10]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 18.0% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 3,057.68 million [4][6]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 0.70 and HKD 0.48, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 7.66, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is facing significant challenges, including a large impairment leading to a larger-than-expected loss. The average selling price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, impacting revenue projections [2][7]. - The report highlights strong financial support from the controlling shareholder, which is expected to help the company navigate through the current downturn in the market [7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting anticipated losses in 2024 but a potential recovery in 2026 [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 37,541 million in 2022 to RMB 20,788 million in 2024, with a further drop to RMB 17,657 million in 2025 before recovering to RMB 23,255 million in 2026 [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to turn negative in 2024, with a forecasted loss of RMB 3,936 million, followed by a smaller loss of RMB 248 million in 2025, and a return to profit in 2026 with RMB 1,534 million [3][15]. - The average selling price of polysilicon is expected to decrease by approximately 60% year-on-year to around RMB 38,000 per ton in 2024, significantly below cash costs [7][8]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the power station and inverter segments at RMB 88 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 102 billion [9]. - The target price of HKD 7.66 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 times for 2026, with the power station segment contributing approximately HKD 6.62 per share [7][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.02%, with a 52-week high of HKD 11.66 and a low of HKD 6.30 [6]. - The average trading volume is reported at 3.98 million shares per day, indicating active trading interest [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices due to supply-side reforms and seasonal factors affecting electricity prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to reduce production to mitigate losses, with a forecasted output of 10,000 tons in 2025 [7][8].

| 52周高位 (港元) | 17.28 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 8.23 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 27,121.66 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 28.89 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 30.08 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 11.38 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁政宁 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 12.80 | 港元 28.75 | +124.6% | | | 金斯瑞生物 (1548 HK) | | | | | | 2H24 核心业务板块增速复苏，新业务将迎增长拐点，维持买入 剔除传奇生物（LEGN US/买入）脱表影响后的 2024 全年收入和经调整净利润 基本符合业绩预告或我们的预期，生命科学和 CDMO 业务在 2H24 迎来增速反 弹，2025 年蓬勃生物和百斯杰有望迎来关键增长拐点。维持买入评级和 28.75 港元目标价。 1 ...