宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周 A 股继续震荡小幅走强，债市震荡偏弱 （ 4 月 21 日 -4 月 25 日） 股票方面， A 股本周继续维持震荡，小盘股走势相对较强，大盘股相对较弱。全周 累计看，上证 50 下跌 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 0.4%，中证 500 上涨 1.2%，中证 1000 上涨 1.8%，中证 2000 上涨 2.7%。港股恒生指数上涨 2.7%，恒生科技指数上涨 2.0%。 行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 7 个下跌，24 个上涨，汽车、美容和基础化工 3 个行业领涨，食品饮料和房地产领跌。周内看，受上周五（4 月 18 日）国务院常务 会议利好影响，周一（4 月 21 日）市场走强，当天超 4350 家公司上涨，超 110 家公 司涨停。周二至周五市场维持震荡走势，波动较小。本周美股主要指数大幅反弹，标 普 500 上涨 4.6%，纳斯达克 100 上涨 6.4%，涨幅超过了上周跌幅。本周一美股受特 朗普要罢免鲍威尔言论影响再次下跌，但之后随着特朗普明确表示不会解雇鲍威尔开 始反弹，在周二到周四连涨 4 ...

股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 18.5 (5.8) 15.8 71.1 相对深圳成指 20.2 1.1 19.4 64.0 (8%) 6% 21% 35% 49% 63% Apr-22 May-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 滨江集团 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 3,111.44 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 2,682.35 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 31,083.32 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 411.09 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 杭州滨江投资控股有限公司 | 45.41 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 002244.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.99 板块评级:强于大市 相关研究报告 《滨江集团：上半年营收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.417 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.049 billion, marking a turnaround from a loss [3][8] - The growth in 2024 was primarily due to a low base from the previous year, with existing projects under pressure, necessitating ongoing attention to optimization [3][8] - New projects are ramping up quickly and showing excellent performance, with stable progress in light-asset contracts, indicating promising growth potential [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.417 billion, up 25.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.049 billion, recovering from a loss [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 525 million, with a payout ratio of 50% [8] Project Performance - Existing projects showed mixed results, with most under pressure; however, new projects are performing well, such as the Guangdong Foshan project, which became profitable in its first year [8] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement for the "Silk Road Eternal Love" project, with expected service fees of RMB 50 million, set to open in July 2026 [8] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS of RMB 0.45, 0.50, and 0.55 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 19.3, and 17.5 [5][7] - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 2.686 billion, with a growth rate of 11.1% [7]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 28 日 | 4 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 603081.SH | 大丰实业 | | 002916.SZ | 深南电路 | | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3295.06 | (0.07) | | 深证成指 | 9917.06 | 0.39 | | 沪深 300 | 3786.99 | 0.07 | | 中小 100 | 6232.97 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | 1947.19 | 0.59 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with a significant increase in Q1 2025. The upgraded "3+N+3" business strategy and the "China + VMI" global capacity layout are expected to drive future growth [3][8] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector, with a strong competitive edge in multiple product categories, including smartphones, personal computers, and data centers [8] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 139.19 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.7% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.61 billion, with a growth rate of 23.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 3.56, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.7 times [5][7] - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.78 billion, indicating a significant increase from previous years [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully upgraded its "3+N+3" strategy, establishing a comprehensive product platform that includes smart devices and emerging fields such as automotive electronics and robotics [8] - The global supply chain system, characterized by a "1+5+5" structure, supports the company's operational efficiency and future growth [8]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.88 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.03 billion, up 32.36% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of RMB 5.27 billion, reflecting a 17.90% increase year-on-year and a 44.29% increase quarter-on-quarter [5][10][11]. - The dye industry is expected to recover, and the company is anticipated to benefit from increased sales of various chemical products and ongoing real estate projects, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 15,883.86 million, with a growth rate of 3.79% compared to 2023. The EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 2,900 million, and the net profit was RMB 2,354.86 million, marking a 35.88% increase year-on-year [11][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.62, with a slight adjustment in forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting EPS of RMB 0.63 and RMB 0.71 respectively [7][15]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 27.87%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in the dye market [10][11]. Business Segments - The dye and intermediate business showed resilience, with revenue from the dye segment reaching RMB 75.91 billion in 2024, a 0.94% increase year-on-year, despite a 5.81% decline in average price per ton [10][11]. - The real estate segment saw significant growth, with revenue of RMB 24.82 billion, up 87.26% year-on-year, driven by project deliveries [10][11]. - The company has a strong market position in the dye industry, with a production capacity of 300,000 tons per year, and is expanding its intermediate product offerings to enhance its competitive edge [10][11].

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 4 月 28 日 中长期资金入市深度报告 A 股的机构化转型与长期价值重塑 中长期资金入市提速，A 股市场结构优化加速演进。 相关研究报告 《市场更新：超预期经济数据的市场指引》 20250417 《一季度进出口数据点评》20250415 《3 月金融数据点评》20250414 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 中长期资金入市政策落地，A 股迎来结构性优化机遇。近年来，政策层 面不断强化中长期资金入市的力度，从 2019 年提出目标，到 2024 年新"国 九条"确立"长钱长投"体系，再到 2025 年中央金融办、中国证监会、财政 部、人力资源社会保障部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发的《关 于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施 ...

002436.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 11.37 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.2 (8.6) 2.4 (0.7) 相对深圳成指 8.9 (1.7) 6.1 (7.7) (29%) (18%) (7%) 4% 15% 25% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 兴森科技 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 1,689.60 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 1,500.42 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 19,210.75 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 1,119.83 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 邱醒亚 | 14.46 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 《兴森科技》20240903 《兴森 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 000848.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.92 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 承德露露 2024 年年报及 2025年 1季报业绩 点评：受春节错期影响，公司季度间业 绩波动较大，若将 4Q24 及 1Q25 合并 来看，整体业绩表现稳健，受益成本红 利释放，1Q25 毛利率提升幅度较大。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.3 13.6 14.3 9.6 相对深圳成指 12.0 20.5 17.9 2.6 (21%) (12%) (3%) 6% 15% 24% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 承德露露 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | | 1,052.55 | | --- | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | | 1,039.52 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | | 10,441.34 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ...