Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The global first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft has completed its maiden flight, and domestic express delivery volume has increased by 14.9% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [2][3] - Crude oil shipping rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported 2280.86 points, down 1.9% from December 11 [3][14] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, marking it as a special customs supervision area, with express delivery volume reaching 1807.4 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year [3][21] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil shipping rates have decreased, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The VLCC market is experiencing a wait-and-see attitude as shipping owners maintain a strong sentiment despite a high number of bids [3][14] - The first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, "Lan Ying R6000," developed by Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., has completed its first test flight, enhancing the low-altitude economy and local industrial chain [3][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has started full island closure, with significant logistics policy benefits and a notable increase in express delivery volume [3][21] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index reported 6369.00 points, up 11.3% year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flight numbers have decreased year-on-year, while international flights have increased significantly [27] - The express delivery business volume in November 2025 increased by 5.00% year-on-year, while the total express delivery volume for the first 11 months reached 1807.41 billion pieces, a 14.90% increase [46] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy sector, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Look into investment opportunities in the cruise and water ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - Monitor investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Focus on investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation Holding, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and companies in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid rising prices [2][12] - The report highlights that the supply-side expansion peak has passed, and there is potential for recovery in industry prosperity [4] Industry Dynamics - The average price tracking 100 chemical products shows that 42 products increased in price, 37 decreased, and 21 remained stable during the week of December 15-21 [9][29] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $56.52 per barrel, down 1.60%, and Brent crude oil futures at $59.82 per barrel, down 2.13% [30] - The report notes a decrease in the average price of isooctanol and glyphosate, with isooctanol averaging 6,612 CNY/ton, down 4.97% week-on-week, and glyphosate at 24,901 CNY/ton, down 1.58% week-on-week [31][32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with low valuations, such as Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology, and suggests monitoring companies in emerging fields like semiconductor materials and new energy materials [12][19] - It emphasizes the potential for demand recovery supported by policies and the continuous optimization of the supply side, which could enhance the performance and valuation of leading companies [12][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating information 2. Core View of the Report - The significance of whether the Fed will cut interest rates below the neutral rate to the US Treasury and precious metals markets is analyzed, and four scenarios are proposed, with scenarios two and three having a relatively high probability [2] - Monetary policy may become the focus of China's incremental policies in 2026 [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - After the Fed cut interest rates to the 3.5 - 3.75% range, this round has cumulatively cut interest rates by 175BP. The key to future interest rate cuts lies in whether to cut below the neutral rate. Four scenarios are analyzed, and the impacts on the US Treasury and precious metals markets are different. Scenarios two and three are more likely [2][10][11] - The central economic work conference's requirements imply that fiscal policy in 2026 may maintain the ratios of total fiscal expenditure/GDP and general public budget revenue/GDP stable. With limited decline space for real - estate - related revenue, monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [2][13] - This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.09% week - on - week and 24.08% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and increased by 17.61% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.20%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 0.92% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 2.32% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 7.54% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.76% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 3.10% and 3.42% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 0.41% on average week - on - week; the aluminum spot price increased by 0.20% on average week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.87% week - on - week. From December 1 - 18 this year, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 293,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - economic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export value year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [29][33][37] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document provides multiple charts showing important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, and the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate [97][102][108] 3.4 Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document provides multiple charts showing the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, such as the daily average production of crude steel (decade) and the production material price index [112][121][127] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document provides charts showing the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167]

Macro Economic Overview - The economic performance in the first quarter may be affected by the later timing of the Spring Festival, suggesting that macro policies should consider early deployment [1][4] - The asset allocation order is recommended as follows: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency [1][5] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures fell by 1.09% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal rose by 7.92%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 2.24% [12] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products settled at 1.85%, and the annualized yield for Yu'ebao increased by 2 basis points to 1.02% [12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds declined by 1 basis point to 1.83%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.08% [12] Economic Data Insights - In November, industrial output increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 1.3% [20] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with real estate development investment down by 15.9% [21] - National fiscal revenue for the first eleven months reached 20.05 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year [21] Policy and Strategic Insights - The focus remains on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies [4] - The upcoming economic work conference emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand as a strategic move for economic stability and security [22] - The central government aims to enhance consumption through various measures, including financial support for key sectors [23] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Stocks are recommended for overweight allocation, with attention to the implementation of 'incremental' policies [4][13] - Bonds are suggested for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][13] - Commodities are maintained at a standard allocation, with a focus on the progress of fiscal incremental policies [4][13] Market Trends and Sector Performance - The A-share market showed significant sector differentiation, with consumer sectors leading gains, while sectors like power equipment and electronic components faced declines [41][42] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with policies aimed at controlling inventory and promoting the construction of affordable housing [36]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis and construction[1][2][3] - The report provides a detailed overview of A-share market trends, including style performance, valuation, and fund flows, but does not elaborate on quantitative models or factors[18][59][84] - The report discusses style indices such as "momentum vs reversal" and "small-cap vs large-cap," but these are presented as market observations rather than constructed quantitative factors or models[59][60][78]

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月月报 11 月新房成交同比降幅扩大，二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济 工作会议指出"稳地产、去库存"，预期 26 年地产政策空间打开 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 11 月新房成交面积环比由正转负、同比降幅扩大。11 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-6.8%，同比-40.7%，同比降幅较 10 月扩大 13.9pct，1-11 月累计同比-11.5%。我们认为，影响居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不 足，叠加去年 12 月销售的基数也相对较高，全年地产市场压力很难缓解。 从各能级城市来看，11 月一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比降幅均扩大。1）一线城市：11 月新房成交面积环比+4.5%，同比-43.5%， 同比降幅较 10 月扩大 5.2pct；1-11 月累计同比-13.8%。具体来看，11 月北京新房成交面积环比-34%，同比-54%；上海环比+31%，同比- 22%；广州环比-1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transition from old to new growth drivers as a key factor influencing China's economic performance, particularly in the context of the real estate market adjustment and changes in domestic population and international geopolitical landscape [2][6][9] - The report forecasts that macroeconomic policies will maintain appropriate support, with a more active fiscal policy expected to arrange 12.28 trillion yuan in new government bonds, including a general public budget deficit of 5.88 trillion yuan, local government special bonds of 4.6 trillion yuan, and special government bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan [3][14] - It is anticipated that the GDP growth rate for 2026 will be around 4.7%, with domestic demand contributing more significantly to GDP growth, particularly through stable growth in household consumption and a recovery in investment driven by major project launches and government investment expansion [9][10][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that while the real estate market adjustment continues, its impact on economic growth is expected to weaken due to its declining share in the economy, with real estate investment declines projected to narrow from -16.5% in 2025 to between -10% and -15% in 2026 [10][12][44] - Inflationary pressures are expected to ease, with the CPI projected to rise by 0.5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in food prices and stable growth in non-rent service prices, although rental prices may continue to decline [38][41][44] - The external demand and trade policy environment are expected to remain relatively stable, with export growth projected at around 3% in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from 5.1% in 2025 [12][13]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation positions, with non-bank financials at 11.7%, banks at 9.6%, and transportation at 9.2% among others [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was 0.1%, with the best-performing sectors being non-bank financials (3.7%), retail (2.3%), and defense (2.3%) [3][10] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 0.4% this week, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the composite strategy has gained 28.0%, compared to the benchmark's 22.4%, resulting in an excess return of 5.7% [3] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors over the past week were non-bank financials (3.7%), retail (2.3%), and defense (2.3%), while the worst were real estate (-2.4%), electric equipment and new energy (-2.3%), and comprehensive (-1.8%) [10][11] - The average monthly return for the past month was -1.1% across 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Valuation Risk Warning - The report indicates that the current PB (Price-to-Book) valuations for retail, computer, non-ferrous metals, defense, and petrochemicals are above the 95% percentile of their historical valuations, triggering a high valuation warning [13][14] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy are machinery, coal, and non-bank financials [15][16] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks the top three industries as communication, electronics, and electric equipment and new energy [20] Macro Style Rotation Strategy - The macro style rotation strategy identifies the top six industries based on current macro indicators as banks, home appliances, electric utilities, petrochemicals, transportation, and construction [23][24] Long-term Reversal Strategy - The long-term reversal strategy combines factors of 2-3 year reversal, 1-year momentum, and low turnover rates to select the top five industries for allocation each month [26]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In November, public fiscal revenue was CNY 14,026.0 billion, remaining flat year-on-year, with tax revenue at CNY 11,450.0 billion, a 2.8% increase, but the growth rate slowed by 5.8 percentage points compared to October[2] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 2,576.0 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 22.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Public fiscal expenditure in November was CNY 22,713.0 billion, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, although the decline rate improved by 6.1 percentage points from October[3] Government Fund Performance - From January to November, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 40,274.0 billion, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a worsening decline rate of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - In November, central government fund revenue was CNY 320.0 billion, down 9.1%, while local government fund revenue was CNY 5,481.0 billion, down 16.1%, with the decline rate improving by 4.3 percentage points from October[5] - The revenue from state-owned land use rights fell to CNY 4,137.0 billion, a 26.8% decrease year-on-year, with the decline rate slightly narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from October[5] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, aiming to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure levels[4] - The actual deficit rate for this year has exceeded 5.0%, and fiscal spending and financing are expected to maintain necessary strength in the coming year[4] - Broad fiscal expenditure from January to November reached CNY 340,662 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, with central fiscal expenditure at CNY 47,310.0 billion, growing by 21.0%[22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [12] Core Viewpoints - The new sales regulations are expected to accelerate the transformation of brokerage wealth management towards a buyer-centric model, enhancing the overall capabilities of fund sales institutions [2][4] - In the context of improving industry sentiment, the long-term valuation center of the securities industry is expected to rise, suggesting a focus on leading comprehensive brokerages and differentiated strategies for smaller brokerages [4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continued optimism regarding the upward valuation potential of the brokerage sector, with new sales regulations likely to expedite the shift towards a buyer-centric wealth management model [4] - Recommendations to focus on leading comprehensive brokerages expanding their advantages and smaller brokerages developing differentiated competitive strategies [4] Regulatory Insights - The new regulations emphasize the importance of long-term investor returns and fund retention scale as key performance indicators, moving away from a focus solely on sales revenue and scale [6] - The regulations aim to enhance the quality of fund selection and advisory services, promoting a more investor-centric approach in the fund sales industry [6] Performance and Marketing Standards - Strict guidelines on performance presentation and promotional language to prevent misleading claims about returns and to ensure comprehensive risk disclosures [6] - Enhanced risk management protocols for live streaming sales activities, including qualification requirements for personnel and compliance checks on content [6]