核心观点 政策 本周中央经济工作会议召开，关于房地产的表述有两部分。一部分在坚持内需主 导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度 改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 房地产行业第 50 周周报（2025 年 12 月 6 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济工作会议提出"因城 施策去库存" 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；新 房库存面积环比上升、同比下降；去化周期环比下降、同比上升。 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Alibaba has established the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" to develop an AI super app, aiming to enhance its AI to consumer (AI to C) strategy and create a comprehensive AI assistant for users [10][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5.2 model, which is optimized for professional applications, marking a shift towards specialized capabilities in the AI model competition [13][14]. - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, signaling a shift in export policy towards conditional release rather than outright restrictions [17][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on companies related to the Qianwen and domestic computing power supply chain, including Data Port, Qianfang Technology, Guangyun Technology, Boyan Technology, Shiji Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame Intelligence [3]. Industry News - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end Business Group aims to integrate various consumer-facing services into a single AI super app, enhancing user engagement and accessibility [10][12]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has set new benchmarks in various professional tasks, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [14][16]. - The U.S. has permitted NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are crucial for AI model training, reflecting a strategic adjustment in technology export policies [17][18]. Company Dynamics - The establishment of the Qianwen C-end Business Group by Alibaba represents a significant organizational shift aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities and market presence [12]. - OpenAI's rapid iteration of its models, including the recent release of GPT-5.2, highlights the intense competition in the AI sector and the need for continuous innovation [14][16]. - The policy change regarding the export of H200 chips is expected to alleviate some high-end computing power shortages in China, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic advancements in chip technology [18].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that during the "Black Friday" shopping season, Jitu Express achieved a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil, and the first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL successfully completed its maiden flight [2][3] - In shipping, crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, while freight rates on long-distance routes have shown mixed trends [3][15] - The report notes that the domestic logistics market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in emerging markets [3][25] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported at 2324.92 points, a slight increase of 0.1% from December 4 [3][15] - The first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL, AR-E800, successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation industry [3][17] - Jitu Express reported a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil during the "Black Friday" shopping season, reflecting strong growth in logistics operations [3][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [29] - In October 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 4.70% [56] - The shipping market has shown mixed trends, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported at 1506.46 points, a week-on-week increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.82% [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - The report emphasizes the potential in the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][45] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and methionine prices, while TDI prices have increased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][10]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 37 saw declines, and 21 remained stable. The average price of TDI rose by 2.49% week-on-week, while methionine prices fell by 2.45% [29][31][32]. - The average cost of TDI was 11,819 CNY/ton, down 0.92% from the previous week, with an average gross profit of 2,766.71 CNY/ton, up 31.79% week-on-week [31]. - The report notes that the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.14, at the 71.18% historical percentile, while the oil and petrochemical industry P/E ratio is 12.85, at the 35.15% historical percentile [10][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders and suggests a long-term investment strategy that includes sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, which are expected to have significant growth potential [10][29]. - Specific stock recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Juhua Co., New Chemical, China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical, and others [10][29].

Macroeconomic Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with expectations for fiscal spending and financing to remain strong next year [2][21][24] - The monetary policy is set to continue with moderate easing, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][21][22] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, indicating a preference for equities in the current market environment [3][4] - The focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies is highlighted for equities, suggesting an overweight position [4][38] - Bonds are recommended for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][43] - Commodities are suggested for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policy implementation [4][49] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures fell by 0.07% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal dropped significantly by 11.72%, and iron ore main contracts fell by 3.49% [1][12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.10% [1][12][43] Financial Data Insights - In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [24] - The CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, while the PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [24][25] Sector-Specific Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index leading gains at 2.74%, while the Shanghai Dividend Index saw a decline of 2.63% [38] - Key sectors such as telecommunications and defense showed strong performance, while coal and oil sectors faced declines [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference promotes a comprehensive green transition, with expectations for high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is pushing for a "de-involution" in the battery industry, which is expected to restore profitability across the supply chain [1] - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1] - The photovoltaic sector is seeing ongoing supply-side reforms, with the integration of polysilicon production capacity and rising silver prices optimizing the battery cell segment [1] - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with government support for new projects [1] - Energy storage remains in high demand, with rising prices for upstream materials affecting downstream integration [1] - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up new demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream applications [1] - Nuclear fusion is highlighted as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in this area [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.34% [10] - Key sectors included power generation equipment (+5.64%) and nuclear power (+3.21%), while the photovoltaic sector saw a decline of 0.59% [13] New Energy Vehicles - In November, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [26] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.2% [26] Battery Industry - Domestic battery installation reached 93.5 GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [26] - The price of battery products is expected to rise, with Dejia Energy announcing a 15% price increase [26] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The establishment of a polysilicon production capacity integration platform has been officially launched [26] - A 1,422 MW offshore wind power project in Jiangsu has been announced [26] Energy Storage - The newly added bidding scale for energy storage systems reached 21.8 GW/64 GWh in November, a 65% increase month-on-month [26] Company Developments - Tianjun Wind Power plans to raise up to 1.95 billion yuan for expansion projects [28] - Ningde Times intends to issue bonds not exceeding 10 billion yuan [28] - Longi Green Energy is planning an employee stock ownership plan with performance targets set for 2026 and beyond [28]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, style performance, valuation metrics, and fund flows without detailing quantitative models or factor construction[1][2][3] - Key metrics such as PE_TTM, ERP, and style indices are discussed, but no explicit quantitative model or factor development process is provided[1][2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market may have a relatively insufficient preference for duration. The proportion of bonds held by institutions with a preference for longer - duration, such as commercial banks and insurance institutions, has decreased. To support macro - economic stability and control the upward pressure on yields, monetary policy is expected to provide more long - term liquidity [2] - Trump is considering the candidate for the next Fed Chair. His choice of Hassett or Warsh may be interpreted differently by the market in terms of the controllability and independence of monetary policy [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded, with different trends in various commodity prices and real estate transaction data [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Frequency Data Scan - **Domestic Bond Market Situation**: The year - on - year growth rate of the domestic social financing stock in November was 8.5%. The growth rate of government bonds slowed but remained at 18.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans dropped to about 1.1%, while enterprise financing (excluding foreign - currency loans) increased by about 7.8%. Since Q4 last year, the proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions in the inter - bank market bond custody volume has decreased. As of October this year, it was about 69.7%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from the 2024 high [2] - **International Financial Situation**: The Fed meeting in the week of December 12 fulfilled the interest - rate cut expectation. However, the 10 - year government bond yields of major developed economies mainly increased this week (US Treasury bonds by 5BP, German bonds by 6BP, French bonds by 5BP, Italian bonds by 6BP, and Spanish bonds by 4BP). Trump is considering the next Fed Chair, with Hassett and Warsh as candidates [2] - **Price Index Changes**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.73% year - on - year. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables increased by 0.71% week - on - week and 18.48% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 1.10% week - on - week in the week of December 5, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.09%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.84% on average week - on - week. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.99% and 2.03% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 2.31% on average week - on - week, and the aluminum spot price decreased by 0.32%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from December 1 - 10, 2025, was about 267,000 square meters per day, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides a large amount of high - frequency data on various aspects, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, showing the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in these indicators [17][18] 3.3 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicator Trends - The report presents multiple sets of charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - economic indicators, such as the year - on - year change in copper spot price and the year - on - year change in industrial added value (+ year - on - year change in PPI), etc., to help analyze the relationship between high - frequency data and macro - economic indicators [21] 3.4 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [90][95] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators, such as the daily average output of crude steel (decadal), production material price index, etc., with all seasonal trend indicators being the month - on - month increase rate [103] 3.6 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [152][153]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of a "spring surge" market, led by technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI computing power and commercial aerospace as dual main lines for investment opportunities [3][13][37] - The transition from a policy-driven market to one driven by fundamental earnings growth is highlighted, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment supporting this shift [13][22] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy remain under pressure [22][37] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion have positively impacted global risk assets, creating a favorable environment for A-shares to remain in an upward trajectory [12][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set priorities for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological development, which are expected to bolster market confidence [12][13] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, is noted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific attention to the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) supply chain and related components like optical modules and storage chips [27][31][32] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant policy boost, with the establishment of a dedicated commercial aerospace department and supportive government actions expected to enhance market confidence and growth prospects [37] Market Trends - Recent market movements show a preference for growth-oriented sectors, with notable gains in communications and electronics, while traditional sectors face declines [22][34] - The report indicates a strong inflow of funds into electronic and communication sectors, reflecting investor confidence in these areas [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the TPU industry chain, particularly in light of anticipated shortages in optical communication chips and the expected price increases in 2026 [28][31][32] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, indicating strong market performance and potential for further growth [32]