Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the uranium mining sector, indicating an expectation for the sector's stock index to outperform the benchmark [6]. Core Insights - Recent increases in both spot and long-term uranium prices have been driven by strong demand expectations catalyzed by U.S. policy changes, with spot prices reaching $85/lbs and long-term prices at $86.5/lbs [1][2]. - The U.S. government's actions, including the designation of natural uranium as a critical mineral, are expected to accelerate the domestic uranium stockpiling cycle, enhancing the investment thesis for the uranium sector [2][4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-Russia relations and the potential non-renewal of the New START treaty, could further tighten the uranium supply chain and push prices higher [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The U.S. is focusing on enhancing its domestic uranium supply capabilities and strategic reserves, suggesting a global uranium stockpiling cycle may commence sooner than anticipated [4]. - The U.S. Department of Energy has indicated a need to increase strategic uranium reserves to mitigate supply risks, particularly in light of reduced Russian supply [2][4]. Supply Side - The report highlights the fragility of uranium supply, with leading suppliers reducing production guidance and mid-tier producers facing production challenges [4]. - Upcoming operational data from key producers, such as the KAP project, is anticipated to provide further insights into production forecasts [4]. Company Recommendation - The report specifically recommends China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) as a key player in the uranium sector, projecting a target price of HKD 4.05 and maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to its strong operational performance and price elasticity [8][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the global nuclear energy revival, with a significant portion of its sales tied to spot prices, enhancing its profitability outlook [11].

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - The global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate by 2026, with "consumables" growth significantly surpassing the initial phase of AI investments[1] - AI investment in 2025 is projected to reach $460 billion, accounting for approximately 1.5% of GDP, exceeding the peak of the internet bubble period[13] - The demand for commodities related to AI is anticipated to increase exponentially, with a low price sensitivity due to supply-side constraints[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policies and Defense Spending - Major economies like the US, Europe, and Japan are implementing expansionary fiscal policies, focusing on defense and supply chain security, which will increase "consumable" demand[2] - NATO countries' defense spending is expected to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% by 2035, with annual increases of 0.13 percentage points required for EU countries[49] - Germany and France are projected to reach defense spending targets of 3-3.5% of GDP by 2030, necessitating annual increases of 0.2 percentage points[52] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Recovery - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience an upturn, driven by AI-related investments and infrastructure demands, positively impacting exports, especially from Asia[59] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to decrease, which may alleviate the drag on manufacturing investments[61] - The US corporate investment growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 4.8%[62]

证券研究报告 SK 海力士 (000660 KS) AI 全栈存储的价值重估 | 华泰研究 | | 深度研究 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 18 日│韩国 | 半导体 | 目标价(韩元): | 1,100,000.00 | 历史上存储被视为典型的周期性商品，特征是资本支出在景气驱动下的扩张 和收缩循环以及同质化的产品竞争。我们认为当前不仅是存储周期的上行阶 段，更是由 AI 算力瓶颈驱动的超级周期。我们看好 SK 海力士受益于布局 HBM、HBF、传统 DRAM 和 eSSD 等关键环节，具备捕捉新存储层级放量 红利的全栈优势，或将经历从周期股向 AI 成长股的估值重构。重申"买入"。 HBM 龙头地位持续巩固，DRAM 全栈完善，形成双引擎增长格局 HBM 的带宽、能效与封装难度远高于传统 DRAM，而 AI 芯片算力利用率高 度依赖 HBM 供给，使其成为 GPU/ASIC 系统扩建的核心瓶颈之一。得益于 TSV 良率、MR-MUF 键合技术与 1β/1γ节点的领先积累，海力士在 HBM3E/4 客户认证 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Technical Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to fully explore technical information to depict market conditions, breaking down the vague concept of "market state" into five dimensions: price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding. It generates a comprehensive score ranging from -1 to +1 based on equal-weighted voting of timing signals from 10 selected indicators[9][14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 10 effective market observation indicators across the five dimensions (e.g., 20-day Bollinger Bands, 20-day price deviation rate, 60-day turnover rate volatility, etc.)[14] 2. Generate long/short timing signals for each indicator individually 3. Aggregate the signals through equal-weighted voting to form a comprehensive score[9][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and timely way for investors to observe and understand the market[9] 2. Model Name: Dividend Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model times the dividend style by analyzing the relative performance of the CSI Dividend Index against the CSI All Share Index, using three indicators: relative momentum, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo trading volume[16][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate daily signals (0, +1, -1) for each indicator, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively 2. Aggregate the scores to determine the overall long/short view on the dividend style 3. When bullish, fully allocate to the CSI Dividend Index; when bearish, fully allocate to the CSI All Share Index[16][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently maintained a bearish view on the dividend style this year, favoring growth style instead[16] 3. Model Name: Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the crowding level of large-cap and small-cap styles based on momentum and trading volume differences, adjusting the strategy based on whether the market is in a high or low crowding state[20][22][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate momentum differences and trading volume ratios between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the CSI 300 Index over multiple time windows 2. Derive crowding scores for both large-cap and small-cap styles based on percentile rankings of the calculated metrics 3. Use a dual moving average model with smaller parameters in high crowding states and larger parameters in low crowding states to determine trends[20][22][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the medium- to long-term trends in low crowding states and reacts to potential reversals in high crowding states[22] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model employs genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry index data (e.g., price, volume, valuation) without relying on predefined scoring rules. It uses a dual-objective approach to optimize factor monotonicity and top-group performance[27][30][31] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use NSGA-II algorithm to optimize two objectives: |IC| and NDCG@5 2. Combine multiple factors with weak collinearity into industry scores using greedy strategies and variance inflation factors 3. Select the top five industries with the highest composite scores for equal-weighted allocation[30][33][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-objective genetic programming approach enhances factor diversity and reduces overfitting risks[30][33] 5. Model Name: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro factor risk parity framework, emphasizing diversification across underlying macro risk sources (growth and inflation surprises) rather than asset classes[38][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide macroeconomic scenarios into four quadrants based on growth and inflation surprises 2. Construct sub-portfolios within each quadrant using equal-weighted assets, focusing on downside risk 3. Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on macro momentum indicators, actively overweighting favorable quadrants[41][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves enhanced performance by actively allocating based on macroeconomic expectations[38][41] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Technical Scoring Model - Annualized Return: 20.67% - Annualized Volatility: 17.33% - Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.19 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87[15] 2. Dividend Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 16.65% - Maximum Drawdown: -25.52% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.91 - Calmar Ratio: 0.65 - YTD Return: 5.78%[17] 3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 27.79% - Maximum Drawdown: -32.05% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.16 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87 - YTD Return: 6.27%[25] 4. Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - Annualized Return: 31.95% - Annualized Volatility: 17.44% - Maximum Drawdown: -19.62% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.83 - Calmar Ratio: 1.63 - YTD Return: 3.31%[30] 5. China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized Return: 11.82% - Annualized Volatility: 6.20% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.91 - Calmar Ratio: 1.88 - YTD Return: 2.02%[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of its cartridge bottle components, with projected revenue growth in 2026 [1][4]. - The global AI-enabled drug development market is anticipated to grow from USD 11.9 billion in 2023 to USD 74.6 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.6% [3]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary and investment in Suzhou Kema Biotechnology are seen as strategic moves to enhance the company's capabilities in AI drug development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at RMB 69.60, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 85x for 2026, which is a premium compared to the industry average [5][7]. Company Strategy - The company has made significant investments in AI drug development, including the establishment of an AI pharmaceutical committee and partnerships with technology firms [1][3]. - The company aims to leverage its extensive customer base of over 1,000 pharmaceutical companies across more than 40 countries to facilitate the commercialization of its AI-enabled drug development initiatives [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 896.34 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 17.17% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 134.46 million in 2026, reflecting a 24.44% increase from the previous year [11]. - The company anticipates a stable performance in its core business of pharmaceutical rubber stoppers, with revenue growth expected to be between 5% and 15% [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lianlian Digital with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 10.20, corresponding to a 2026 estimated price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 5x [1][17]. Core Insights - Lianlian Digital is a leading independent digital payment service provider in China, primarily offering cross-border payment solutions for Chinese merchants, facilitating foreign currency collection abroad and repatriation to China [13][30]. - The cross-border payment market has significant growth potential, driven by increasing global trade and e-commerce penetration, with forecasts indicating that China's cross-border payment total payment volume (TPV) will reach CNY 17.1 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of approximately 22.1% from 2025 to 2028 [13][23]. - Lianlian's competitive advantages include a comprehensive global licensing network and partnerships, enabling it to support transactions in over 130 currencies across more than 100 countries [14][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, Lianlian's total TPV reached CNY 2.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with cross-border payment TPV at CNY 198.5 billion, up 94% year-on-year [9][15]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of CNY 4.021 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.442 billion, primarily driven by gains from equity disposals and dilution benefits from capital increases [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 was approximately CNY 0.6 billion, indicating a near break-even point, with expectations for profitability improvements in the long term [8][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Lianlian's market share in China's cross-border payment industry is projected to increase from 2.9% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024, reflecting its expanding footprint in the sector [13][15]. - The company is focused on enhancing its payment technology and infrastructure, with a commitment to R&D expenditures of around 20-30% of revenue, aimed at optimizing cross-border payment services [10][14]. - Lianlian's business model includes not only cross-border payments but also domestic payment services and value-added services, which are increasingly contributing to revenue growth [31][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.05 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in trade and price elasticity, with a significant increase in uranium prices anticipated due to global nuclear energy revival [1]. - The overall production and operational performance for 2025 is in line with expectations, with a notable recovery in uranium trade prices in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - The company is one of the most elastic uranium producers in terms of performance relative to spot prices, with 70% of its sales framework agreements tied to spot pricing mechanisms from 2026 to 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Outlook - The company's total uranium production for 2025 is projected at 2,699.0 tons, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year. The Ortalyk mine shows a significant increase of 68%, while the Semizbay-U mine experiences an 18% decline [2]. - Looking ahead, the sales framework agreements for 2026 and 2027 indicate production increases to approximately 2,935 tons and 3,300 tons, respectively, with Ortalyk mine expected to grow by 15% and 18% [2]. Trade and Pricing - The uranium trade delivery prices have shown a clear recovery, with prices increasing from $56.44/lbs in Q1 to $79.90/lbs in Q4 of 2025. The average receiving price for the year was $73.95/lbs, with a similar average for deliveries [3]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in trade prices will lead to a restoration of profits in the international trade business for the entire year [3]. Strategic Developments - The inclusion of uranium in the U.S. Section 232 critical minerals list is expected to accelerate the replenishment cycle, tightening supply and potentially driving prices higher [4]. - The U.S. government's actions to ensure sufficient uranium supply are likely to bolster long-term confidence in nuclear power development [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to adjustments in production plans, the company's net profit for 2025 has been revised down by 34% to HKD 231 million. However, profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards to HKD 1.039 billion and HKD 1.363 billion, respectively [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.6x for 2026, leading to a target price increase from HKD 3.01 to HKD 4.05 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 35.10 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail value growth of 26% year-on-year for Q3 FY26, with a sequential increase of 8 percentage points. The growth was driven by effective product differentiation and sales strategies amid rising gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) improved across all regions, with Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets showing a year-on-year increase of 16% [2]. - The product mix continues to upgrade, with high-margin pricing gold products accounting for 17% of retail value, supporting the company's profit resilience [3]. - The company is optimizing its store structure, with a total of 3,073 stores globally, and plans to expand its overseas presence significantly [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a same-store sales growth of 16% in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets, with specific increases of 15% in Hong Kong, 22% in Macau, and 11% overseas [2]. - The same-store sales growth for self-operated stores in mainland China was 7%, while brand stores saw a remarkable 31% growth [2]. Product Strategy - The retail value of high-margin pricing gold products increased by 3 percentage points to 17%, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau accounting for 16% and 17% respectively [3]. - The company launched new product lines, including the "Ice·Diamond Light Shadow Gold" series and the Tang Palace Night Banquet series, which contributed to a 66% increase in gold-inlaid diamond product sales [3]. Store Expansion - As of January 15, 2026, the company had 3,073 stores globally, with 2,951 in mainland China, 74 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 48 overseas. The net store closures have slowed down, with 40 closures in Q3 FY26 compared to 49 in the previous quarter [4]. - The company aims to open at least 50 new stores in three countries over the next three years, with 20 planned for FY26 [4]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecast for FY26-FY28 at HKD 1.548 billion, HKD 1.733 billion, and HKD 1.918 billion respectively, with a target price corresponding to a 14 times PE ratio for FY26 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several banks, including Chengdu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Nanjing Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Shanghai Bank, and China Construction Bank, while recommending "Hold" for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [8][35]. Core Insights - The report highlights that corporate lending has become the main driver of credit growth, with December's new loans reaching 910 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, while household loans contracted significantly [2][5]. - The total social financing for 2025 is projected to be 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, supported mainly by government bonds [5][12]. - The report indicates a recovery in corporate bond financing, with December seeing an increase of 1.54 billion yuan, while government bond financing decreased significantly due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][5]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - December's new loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, with corporate loans increasing by 1.07 trillion yuan, while household loans decreased by 916 billion yuan [2][5]. - The overall loan growth rate for December was 6.4%, remaining stable compared to November [2][12]. Social Financing - The total social financing in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, primarily due to fluctuations in government bonds [1][5]. - For the entire year of 2025, social financing is expected to grow significantly, driven by government support [5][12]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates for December were 3.8% and 8.5%, respectively, with M1 showing a decline due to limited demand for corporate current funds [4][12]. - New deposits in December reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08 trillion yuan [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment, including Chengdu Bank (target price 23.25 yuan), Nanjing Bank (target price 14.78 yuan), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (target price 8.31 yuan) [11][35].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hunan YN Energy with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 114.18 RMB based on a 22x PE for 2026 [3][9]. Core Views - Hunan YN Energy is a leading enterprise in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) with strong technical accumulation and excellent cost control, demonstrating robust profitability during industry downturns. The company is expected to benefit from a potential price increase cycle as industry supply and demand are anticipated to tighten [3][4]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72% from 2022 to 2024, outpacing the overall battery industry growth of 38%. The demand is expected to continue with growth rates of 63%, 49%, and 29% from 2025 to 2027 [4][31]. - The company has a strong cost advantage, with a single-ton cost at least 2,000 RMB lower than its peers, benefiting from large-scale production and low energy costs in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou [5][17]. - Hunan YN Energy enjoys a first-mover advantage in high-density products, with new products accounting for approximately 40% of sales in the first half of 2025, which enhances product pricing power [6][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The lithium iron phosphate sector is expected to enter a price increase cycle due to high demand growth and a slowdown in new supply. The industry is projected to maintain high capacity utilization rates of 72%, 75%, and 81% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][16]. Cost and Efficiency - Hunan YN Energy has achieved significant cost advantages through vertical integration, self-supplying phosphoric acid, and benefiting from low electricity prices in resource-rich areas. The company’s large-scale production facilities further enhance its cost efficiency [5][17]. Technology and Product Development - The company is actively developing new materials and has a strong pipeline of high-value products, including manganese iron phosphate and lithium-rich manganese-based materials, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [6][18]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts with market concerns regarding demand uncertainty post-subsidy reductions, asserting that strong support exists for both passenger and commercial vehicle battery demand, as well as for energy storage systems [7][19]. Financial Projections - Hunan YN Energy's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.145 billion, 3.947 billion, and 4.994 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 93%, 245%, and 27% [8][13].