证券研究报告 互联网 双十一大促：闪购与 AI 成为新变量 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 23 日│中国香港 动态点评 大促周期拉长，闪购与 AI+电商或成为新变量 电商平台 2025 年双十一大促已于近期开启。总结来看，我们认为有三点核 心趋势：1）大促时间线持续拉长，活动开幕进一步提前；2）闪购成为电商 大促新的履约方式，在提升用户履约体验的同时亦为品牌商线下场域的动销 改善提供帮助；3）AI 在电商场景的落地应用进一步加快，2C 与 2B 齐头并 进，成为平台优化用户体验、提升商户经营效率的重要路径。主要标的中， 我们建议关注近期受益于闪购增量和在AI+电商产品工具领域布局较为领先 的阿里巴巴（BABA US/9988 HK），以及外卖等新业务带动下拥有较多新 增用户和流量的京东（JD US/9618 HK）。 活动时间与折扣力度：长周期活动以稳定场域，加码核心用户投入 我们认为大促周期延长反映出大促与日常性促销的边界进一步模糊，平台与 商户通过主动让利进一步刺激需求的增长与释放。而开幕提前则表明各平台 对于获取竞争先发优势、抢夺消费者确定性需求的诉求更为坚定，各平台对 于份额的竞争仍延续激烈。在折 ...

证券研究报告 涛涛车业 (301345 CH) Q3 净利符合预告，单季利润率新高 2025 年 10 月 23 日│中国内地 汽车零部件 涛涛车业发布三季报：Q3 实现营收 10.60 亿元（yoy+27.73%，qoq-1.35%）， 归母净利 2.64 亿元（yoy+121.44%，qoq+3.25%），位于业绩预增公告区 间中枢（2.4-2.8 亿元）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营收 27.73 亿元（yoy+24.89%）， 归母净利 6.07 亿元（yoy+101.27%），扣非净利 6.02 亿元（yoy+104.14%）。 维持"买入"评级。 Q3 营收同比高增，盈利能力进一步提升 25Q3 公司营业收入延续同比高增趋势，主要系高尔夫球车产品海外需求持 续旺盛、渠道网络优势显现。在海外产能支持下，关税波动对公司盈利能力 有限，25Q3 公司毛利率同比+9.1pct，环比+4.4pct 至 46.05%，同环比提 升系高附加值的高尔夫球车营收占比提升所致。25Q3 公司期间费率控制得 当，销售费率为 7.3%，同比-1.0pct，环比+0.3pct；管理费率为 4.7%，同 比+1.01pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.00 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by stable financial operations and a significant growth in inclusive finance business, which saw a more than 60% increase in interest-earning asset scale [1][2]. - Despite challenges in the industrial operations segment, particularly in the equipment operation sector, the company emphasizes its commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% for 2025 [1][4]. Financial Business Summary - The company's interest-earning asset net amount for the first half of 2025 was CNY 266.6 billion, reflecting a 2.3% increase compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - Inclusive finance business contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a doubling of income in the first three quarters [2]. - The net interest margin improved to 4.06% in the first half of 2025, up from 3.95% in the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in financial operations [2]. Industrial Operations Summary - The equipment operation segment, primarily under Hongxin Construction, experienced a revenue decline of over 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters, attributed to a competitive domestic market [3]. - The healthcare operation segment remained stable, with a slight revenue decline but continued to maintain profitability [3]. Dividend Characteristics - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 0.25 for the first half of 2025, translating to a payout ratio of approximately 50% [4]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is around 8.0%, despite the challenges faced in the industrial operations segment [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The election of Japan's new Prime Minister, Takashi Asao, is expected to maintain a fiscal easing approach, although political capital may limit future policy actions [2] - Recent macro risks include global trade tensions, credit events in the US, and geopolitical changes, which have increased market volatility [2] - Gold is highlighted as a quality asset that can hedge against multiple macro risks, with a long-term upward trend expected despite short-term fluctuations [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - Following a significant drop in gold prices, the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity as prices stabilize [3] - Major gold companies are expected to achieve volume and price increases in 2026, with current valuations suggesting a favorable entry point [3] Group 3: Construction and Engineering - Shanghai's new action plan aims to promote high-quality development in the construction industry, focusing on demand stimulation, supply optimization, and transformation towards green, industrial, and digital practices [4] - Leading construction firms in Shanghai are expected to strengthen their competitive positions through integration and specialization, while smaller firms may find niche opportunities [4] Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - Sunshine Power is positioned as a leader in power electronics, with growth prospects driven by energy storage and international expansion, despite short-term policy uncertainties [5] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing global demand for energy storage solutions and the transition to renewable energy sources [5] Group 5: Fertilizer Industry - Hubei Yihua is projected to benefit from a recovery in domestic fertilizer demand and strong export profitability due to tight phosphate resource supply [6] - The company’s integrated supply chain, including upstream phosphate mining, enhances its competitive advantage in the fertilizer market [6] Group 6: Telecommunications - China Unicom's revenue and profit growth reflect improvements in operational efficiency and the acceleration of digital transformation initiatives [14] - The company is expected to leverage AI developments to enhance its cloud computing and data center services, driving future growth [14] Group 7: AI and Technology - Lian Te Technology is positioned to capitalize on the expanding light module market driven by AI advancements, with significant growth expected from 2024 onwards [7] - The company has established a strong customer base and is well-positioned to expand its market share in the overseas data communication sector [7] Group 8: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Wens Foodstuff's profitability is expected to improve due to cost advantages in pig farming and a recovery in poultry farming profitability [17] - The company has announced a cash dividend distribution, reflecting its strong financial position despite recent profit declines [17] Group 9: Chemical Industry - China National Offshore Oil Corporation's chemical division is expected to benefit from stable natural gas costs and a favorable dividend yield, with growth prospects tied to domestic fertilizer market recovery [8] Group 10: Semiconductor and AI - Hanwha's revenue growth is driven by strong demand for AI chips, with expectations of continued growth in domestic procurement of computing power chips [28] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies and domestic chip procurement [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 760 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 13.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 100 million RMB, an increase of 3.9% year-over-year [1][6] - The decline in revenue for Q3 2025 was primarily due to reduced revenue from capital-intensive brand online marketing and distribution services, although brand online management and content e-commerce services saw revenue growth of 28.8% and 6.2% respectively [2] - The company is advancing its AI technology applications and integrating brand online management services with content e-commerce services, which has improved operational efficiency and risk resilience [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 increased by 4.0 percentage points to 30.4%, supported by a reduction in the proportion of low-margin online distribution service revenue [3] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its e-commerce strategy, which is expected to improve cost control and operational efficiency in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 230 million RMB, down 11.3% year-over-year and 19.3% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 30 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 0.6% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 37.9% [1][2] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 760 million RMB, with a net profit of 100 million RMB [1] AI and Operational Strategy - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, which has led to a decrease in inventory by 5.3% and accounts receivable and payable by 10.9% and 20.5% respectively [2] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and customer service, leading to a 14.9% increase in GMV year-over-year [2][4] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the year increased by 2.6 percentage points to 30.0%, driven by the reduction of low-margin service revenue [3] - The report forecasts an increase in net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 9.8%, 7.2%, and 7.7% respectively, with projected net profits of 110 million RMB, 140 million RMB, and 172 million RMB [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.80 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 615 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 59.23% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 51.05 million, up 253.11% year-over-year but down 10.77% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached RMB 1.537 billion, a year-over-year increase of 37.39%, with a net profit of RMB 62.93 million, reflecting an 854.72% increase year-over-year [1]. - The demand for wind power continues to support sales improvement, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.82%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 21.58%, an increase of 10.0 percentage points year-over-year but a decrease of 2.96 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The main raw material, acrylonitrile, had an average price of RMB 8,252 per ton in Q3 2025, down 5.0% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.05%, down 9.86 percentage points year-over-year, with absolute expenses decreasing by 17.0% to RMB 231 million [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 34 million, down 85.3% year-over-year [3]. Industry Outlook - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing slow new capacity release, with demand from wind power and aerospace providing support for a stable supply-demand balance [4]. - As of mid-October, the average price for mainstream carbon fiber products remained stable, with a slight year-over-year decline of about 2-7% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 148 million, RMB 273 million, and RMB 422 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.16, RMB 0.30, and RMB 0.47 [5]. - The company is assigned a 6x PB valuation for 2025, reflecting its operational turning point and strengthened market position following the full production of its Xining production line [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 39.16 per share [6][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 14.168 billion in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and a net profit of RMB 344 million, up 31.1% year-on-year, driven by accelerated data center construction in the internet sector [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from high demand in the data center sector and ongoing internal operational improvements, leading to accelerated performance release [1]. - The company continues to innovate in the data center switch market, maintaining a leading position in various segments, including 200G/400G data center switches and enterprise WLAN [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 5.282 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 3.7% due to increased employee performance-related expenses [1]. - The overall gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 31.20%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2025 gross margin improved to 32.46%, up 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Position and Innovation - The company holds the top market share in China for 200G/400G data center switches, Ethernet networks, and enterprise WLAN, with significant improvements in market share compared to 2024 [2]. - The company showcased new products and solutions at the 2025 Optical Expo, including a 51.2T CPO switch commercial interconnection solution and a new generation of lossless network solutions [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its ICT, AI, and metaverse business lines, with plans to enhance AI capabilities and explore brain-computer interface business models [4]. - The company anticipates continued high demand for network equipment, particularly in data centers, and aims to leverage its subsidiaries for growth in emerging sectors [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 8.25 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching RMB 5.672 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.17% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 improved to 23.19%, up 1.07 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, indicating enhanced profitability [2]. - The company has successfully supplied solid-state transformers (SST) for data center projects, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. - Strong demand for domestic power transmission and transformation equipment is evident, with significant tender amounts for high-voltage projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 17.004 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.54%, and a net profit of RMB 939 million, up 19.29% year-over-year [2]. - The overall expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 13.09%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management [2]. Market Demand and Supply - From January to August 2025, China's grid construction investment reached RMB 379.6 billion, a 14.0% increase year-over-year, with strong tender demand for power transmission equipment [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline of high-voltage projects, with expected tender amounts exceeding RMB 150 billion for the fourth round of equipment procurement [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 10.31%, 9.23%, and 4.68% respectively, with projected net profits of RMB 1.331 billion, RMB 1.681 billion, and RMB 2.034 billion [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.26, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.40 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 25 times for 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for A-shares and a "Buy" rating for H-shares with target prices of RMB 7.56 and HKD 15.57 respectively [6][12]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in operational efficiency and is accelerating its digital transformation, benefiting from the growth in AI applications which enhance revenue from cloud computing and data center services [1][5]. - Traditional business segments remain stable with a positive growth trend, as evidenced by the increase in mobile users to 356 million and broadband users to 129 million [2]. - The company is enhancing its network capabilities, with cloud revenue growing by 20.6% year-on-year and data center revenue increasing by 8.9% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 292.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.772 billion, up 5.20% [1][11]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of RMB 92.78 billion, with a net profit of RMB 2.423 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year [1]. User Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had 356 million mobile users, a net increase of 12.48 million, and 129 million broadband users, with a net increase of 6.79 million [2]. Network and Technology Development - The company is advancing its network from 5G to 5G-A and upgrading broadband from gigabit to 10-gigabit, which is expected to enhance user experience [3]. - The cloud business achieved revenue of RMB 52.9 billion, while the data center business generated RMB 21.4 billion, both showing strong growth [3]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved by 0.09 percentage points to 5.10%, and the net profit margin increased by 0.26 percentage points to 6.8% due to enhanced operational efficiency and cost control [4]. - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Unicom Smart Technology, for listing on the ChiNext board, which is expected to support its long-term growth strategy [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit driven by the development of AI applications, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 9.602 billion, RMB 10.124 billion, and RMB 10.643 billion respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a net profit of 632 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions for both domestic and international forklift sales, as well as the upcoming launch of humanoid robots [1][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 13.972 billion yuan, up 10.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.753 billion yuan, up 11.21% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 23.48%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Demand - The demand for forklifts in the industry has been strong, with total sales of 1,106,406 units from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14% [3] - Domestic sales reached 697,375 units, up 13.1% year-on-year, while exports totaled 409,031 units, up 15.5% year-on-year [3] Strategic Developments - The company acquired a 99.23% stake in Zhejiang Guozi Robot Technology Co., enhancing its capabilities in intelligent logistics solutions and expanding its global market channels [4] - The upcoming launch of the "X1 Series" humanoid robot is anticipated to provide a new growth curve for the company's intelligent business [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 2.285 billion yuan, 2.591 billion yuan, and 2.880 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The target price has been raised to 33.66 yuan, reflecting a valuation of 17 times the expected earnings for 2026 [5]