证券研究报告 宏观 香港资产相对优势凸显 华泰研究 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 chenwei023580@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 2025 年 5 月 22 日│中国内地 专题研究 5 月初港币兑美元汇率触及强方兑换保证，触发香港金管局卖出 1,294 亿港 币投放流动性，推动香港银行体系总结余从此前的约 450 亿港币急增近 3 倍至约 1,740 亿港币，并带动 HIBOR 利率大幅下行，如隔夜 HIBOR 利率 从 4 月底的 4.5%大幅下行至 0 附近。同时，近日宁德时代成功赴港上市， 募资规模超 350 亿港币，创 2023 年来全球 IPO 募资记录。这一发行提醒市 场香港流动性改善、且即使在没有美资客户参与的情况下，香港市场对全球 的吸引力仍在上升。今年美元在关税大幅上升的背景下不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Factors such as tariff easing, upward - revised fundamental expectations, and rising overseas bond yields exert some pressure on the domestic bond market. However, the medium - term fundamental trend is unclear, and the funding situation has become moderately loose. The reduction of deposit and lending rates is beneficial to the downward movement of the bond yield center, so the bond market is difficult to break out of the volatile pattern. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be difficult to exceed 1.8% in the short - term, and the lower limit is expected to be around 1.5% [3][27]. - For Treasury bond futures, the short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate. TS2509 is expected to remain weak, with limited room for further decline and a low probability of a rebound. TF can be used for hedging due to its low basis and low hedging cost. T and TL can be considered for those who are optimistic about the future and want to bet on a rebound, as they have a thick basis protection cushion [4][29][30]. - For IRS, no strategies are recommended for now. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited. The carry of Repo 1Y has narrowed to around - 2BP, offering little space for both long and short positions [4][90][91]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In May, after the long - awaited "double - cut" was implemented, the long - end yield rose due to the exhaustion of positive factors, while the short - end generally declined, and the yield curve steepened. Subsequently, the mention of resuming Treasury bond trading operations in the first - quarter monetary policy implementation report led to a slight decline in long - end yields. The better - than - expected results of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks broke the long - standing sideways pattern of the bond market, causing significant declines in Treasury bond futures, especially for long - duration bonds. However, as the funding situation became loose and the April financial data was seasonally weak, the bond market sentiment recovered, and Treasury bond futures turned to a volatile state [2][15]. 3.2 Spot Bond Judgment - In the short - term, the domestic bond market faces some pressure from factors such as tariff easing, upward - revised fundamental expectations, and rising overseas bond yields. But the medium - term fundamental trend is unclear, and the funding situation has become moderately loose. The reduction of deposit and lending rates is beneficial to the downward movement of the bond yield center, so the bond market is difficult to break out of the volatile pattern. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be difficult to exceed 1.8% in the short - term, and the lower limit is expected to be around 1.5%. A coupon leverage strategy is recommended, and 3 - 5 - year urban investment second - tier perpetual bonds are recommended. For long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, it is advisable to increase holdings on dips when the odds and winning probabilities are not clear [3]. 3.3 Derivatives Directional Strategies - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate. TS2509 is expected to remain weak, with limited room for further decline and a low probability of a rebound. TF can be used for hedging due to its low basis and low hedging cost. T and TL can be considered for those who are optimistic about the future and want to bet on a rebound, as they have a thick basis protection cushion [4][29][30]. - **IRS**: No strategies are recommended for now. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited. The carry of Repo 1Y has narrowed to around - 2BP, offering little space for both long and short positions [4][90][91]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Strategies - **Directional Strategy**: The short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate. The implementation of previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, along with the unexpected tariff negotiations, have led to adjustments in the bond market and differentiated performance of Treasury bond futures, with the short - end performing relatively well. The funding situation is expected to remain moderately loose under the influence of monetary policy. The bond market may not have fully digested the impact of this round of tariff negotiations, and there may be redemption disturbances from the strengthening of the stock market in the short - term. The supply of interest - rate bonds will be large in the future [24]. - **Cash - and - Carry Strategy**: There are currently no opportunities. The IRR of the CTD of the 2509 contract has no obvious advantage compared with the certificate of deposit rate, so the IRR strategy is not recommended [37]. - **Basis Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the basis. The basis of T, TS, and TF contracts has been compressed to a low level, and there is limited space for further shorting the basis. The basis of the TL contract is slightly higher, but considering the long time until the 09 contract delivery, the basis is not too high, and shorting the basis is not recommended. One can appropriately bet on the widening of the basis of the 2509 contract [42]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: It is necessary to wait. The subsequent spread between the 2509 - 2506 contracts depends on the bond market trend. Since the roll - over is almost over and the 2512 contract has poor liquidity, the calendar spread (2509 - 2506) strategy is not recommended for now [51]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Strategy**: Not recommended for now. The short - end interest rate has declined rapidly after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the long - end has taken some profits due to the unexpected tariff negotiations. The yield curves of the 2 - 5 - year and 5 - 10 - year segments have steepened slightly. The subsequent downward space of the funding rate is limited, and the downward space of the medium - and short - end is narrow. The long - end and ultra - long - end are still disturbed by tariff negotiations and possible improvement in phased data, and their performance may be slightly weaker than the short - end, but the space is also limited [59][60][61]. 3.5 IRS Trading Strategies - **Directional Strategy**: Not recommended. The unexpected tariff easing limits the further loosening of the funding situation, and the space for IRS directional strategies is limited [90]. - **Term Spread Strategy**: Not recommended. The term spread of the IRS fixing curve is still at a low level. The long - end interest rate is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and the short - end has fully priced in the funding loosening. The steepening or flattening space of the yield curve is expected to be limited, and the IRS curve changes more slowly than the spot and futures, and it is difficult to close positions [94]. - **Basis Strategy**: Not recommended. According to past experience of interest rate cuts, after the OMO and LPR are lowered, the listed deposit rates of large banks will be quickly adjusted. Considering the bank's interest margin pressure, the reduction of the listed certificate of deposit rate this time is expected to be significant. Currently, the basis of 1Y, 2Y, and 5Y Shibor 3M/FR007 is only fluctuating around 3BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively, so the cost - effectiveness of the basis strategy is not high [98]. - **Bond - Buying - and - Repo Strategy**: Not recommended. The spread between the 1 - year and 5 - year China Development Bank bonds and IRS Repo is limited, so there is little space for this strategy [109].

证券研究报告 房地产 全球视角下的现房销售制度思考 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 22 日│中国内地 动态点评 境外现房销售模式—以美国、日本、中国香港为鉴 境外国家和地区房地产市场普遍采用"预定+现房销售"的交易模式，通过严 格的资金监管机制保障购房者权益。具体到交易流程，首先购房者选定房源 后签订合同并支付一般不超过房款 10%的定金（存入第三方托管账户），此 时可同步申请按揭贷款；然后等待项目建设完成进入交付准备阶段；最后， 购房者验房确认无误后，才需支付剩余首付并完成贷款放款和产权过户。该 模式的核心在于绝大部分购房款均在项目竣工之后支付，并且所有购房资金 在房屋交付前均由第三方监管，杜绝资金挪用风险，保障购房者资金安全。 中国推进现房销售将对房企经营带来哪些影响？ 预售制度是我国住房供不应求时代的产物，房企也曾在预售制度下快速发展 扩张，但随着现房销售制度推进，房企的经营模型将受到影响。现房销售或 将使房企的平均销售回款周期推迟一年半左右，房企或需要通过自有资金、 银行贷款或发债来弥补预售资金缺口，这将显著提高房企的资金成本。且回 款延迟将降低项目净利润率的 IRR，据我们测算，对于某项目（仅使用 ...

证券研究报告 乐信 (LX US) 1Q25：利润环比+19%，风险再压降 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 22 日│美国 | 其他多元金融 | 乐信公告 1Q25 业绩：归母净利润 4.3 亿人民币（同比/环比：+113/+19%）， 净利润 take rate 提升至 1.59%（4Q24：1.31%）。净利润的同比增速符合 公司对今年利润同比显著增长的指引。年化净利润 take rate 的改善主要由 信用成本降低 219bps 至 3.4%驱动。信用成本降低主因贷款质量改善，以 及轻资本业务占比上升。首日逾期率环比降幅 11%，轻资本放款量占比升 至 28%（4Q24：20%）。放款量受节假日的季节性因素影响，同时公司当 前的业务重点或仍不是规模扩张。1Q25 新增放款量 516 亿人民币，环比略 降 0.8%。另外公司进一步提升股东回报，2H25 的分红比例将由现行的 25% 提升至 30%。我们认为公司 1 季度的业绩表现在持续兑现公司的业务逻辑， 即底层风控升级推动信用成本降低并带动利润提升，随 1H2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2] - The demand for recruitment is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in blue-collar job seekers, which now account for over 45% of new users, contributing to a revenue share of over 39% [2][3] - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, achieving a gross margin of 83.8% and a profit margin of 36% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively. The adjusted net profit estimates have also been increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB for the same period [4][11] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, which aligns with market expectations [2][4] Financial Metrics - The company achieved a cash collection of 2.18 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.3% [2] - The adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 692 million RMB, with a profit margin of 36%, indicating better-than-expected profit release [3][4] - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the full year 2025 [3][4] Valuation - Based on a DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][11][13] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $7.904 billion, with a closing price of $17.90 as of May 21 [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding the forecast of 1.91 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, surpassing the prediction of 617 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2]. - The recruitment demand is gradually recovering, with the blue-collar segment accounting for over 45% of new users, contributing to an increase in revenue share to over 39% [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, with a gross margin of 83.8% and a significant decrease in sales expense ratio by 8.5 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB [4][11]. - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 8.5% [2]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved an adjusted operating profit of 692 million RMB in Q1 2025, corresponding to a profit margin of 36%, which is better than expected [3]. - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the year 2025 [3][12]. Valuation - Based on the DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][13].

证券研究报告 银行 重视中国资产重估下港银机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 23 日│中国香港 专题研究 重视中国资产重估下港银机会 中国资产吸引力提升，把握港银修复机会。中国经济修复预期逐步改善，人 民币或有升值动力，有望催化中国资产重估空间。香港为全球金融网络重要 节点，看好港股相对全球市场的收益表现。港银市值占比高+基本面韧性强+ 股息可托底，有望吸引增量资金。银行为港股市值占比第一大板块（截至 5/21 总市值占比 21%），估值位列港交所 31 个行业倒数第 4（PB MRQ 为 0.52 倍）。政策力度加码，关税壁垒降级，个股推荐：1）稳健大行+质优 区域行 H 股配置价值凸显，如农行 H、交行 H、招行 H、渝农 H、重庆 H。 2）重视股东回报的香港银行，如渣打集团、汇丰控股、中银香港。 历史复盘：人民币升值区间内港银表现较优 复盘 2016 年以来的两轮人民币升值周期，港银获得绝对+相对收益。分类 型看，香港银行与 AH 银行均受益于人民币升值带来的股价催化，但香港银 行与海外宏观关联较大，AH 银行则挂钩内地经济。16 年 12 月-18 年 3 月 离岸人民币升值 9%，港股银行录得 ...

1Q25 单票收入同比下降 7.8%；散件业务量同比增长 46% 今年以来，国内快递行业价格战激烈，行业低价值或亏损件量占比提升加剧 了行业竞争和挑战。公司下调单票价格抢占市场件量，以保障其件量规模和 市场份额的增长，同时保持其成本端和竞争对手的优势。1Q25 公司单票收 入 1.25 元，同比下降 7.8%；完成快递件量 85.4 亿件，同比增长 19.1%。 其中，公司在退货件市场深入拓展，持续与电商平台和企业客户合作，散件 业务量同比增长 46%。 1Q25 单票成本同比下降 0.4%，调整后单票净利同比下降 14.7% 受益于件量规模增长，1Q25 公司单票成本同比下降 0.4%至 0.94 元。其中， 干线运输/分拣单票成本分别为 0.41/0.27 元，同比下降 13.2%/10.4%；其 他单票成本为 0.25 元，同比上涨 60.7%，主因公司服务更高价值的企业客 户增长带动相应成本提升。整体，1Q25 公司调整后单票净利 0.26 元，同 比下降 14.7%，主因单票收入下降所致。 证券研究报告 中通快递-W (2057 HK/ZTO US) 港股通 市场份额为首要目标，短期盈利承压 | 华 ...

证券研究报告 小鹏汽车-W (9868 HK) 港股通 毛利率持续改善，看好新车周期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 22 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 公司公布一季度业绩：收入 158 亿元，同环比+141%/-2%；归母净利润-6.6 亿元，亏损同环比收窄 7.0/6.7 亿元，符合我们预期（Q1 前瞻中预计亏损 5-10 亿元）。我们继续看好 M03 MAX、G7 等新车热销，有望带动 7~8 月 公司总月销超 4 万辆，规模效应提升下盈利继续改善，维持"买入"评级。 25Q1 毛利率 15.6%再创新高，内部降本增效成果显著 公司 25Q1 销售新车 9.4 万辆，同环比+331%/3%，带动季度营收创新高。 M03、P7+等热销下规模效应增强，25Q1 公司毛利率为 15.6%，同环比 +2.7/1.1pct，其中汽车毛利率 10.5%，同环比+5.0/0.5pct，连续七个季度改 善。单车 ASP/毛利分别为 15.3/1.6 万元，同比-40%/+15%，环比-5%/-0.5%， 环比下滑主要系产品结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 15.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 141% and a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 660 million RMB, which is a narrowing of losses compared to previous quarters, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached a record high of 15.6%, reflecting significant internal cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The automotive gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for six consecutive months, with expectations for continued strong sales in the upcoming months due to the launch of new models [3] - The company is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, with a cumulative export of 11,000 vehicles in the first four months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 330% [4] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 85.6 billion RMB, 97.7 billion RMB, and 124.7 billion RMB respectively, with an upward adjustment of the target price to 119.99 HKD [5][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 sales of new vehicles reached 94,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 331%. The company expects to deliver 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, setting a new delivery guidance high [2] - The company’s operating expenses have shown significant control, with SG&A and R&D expense ratios at 12% and 13% respectively, down 9 and 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development - The company plans to launch three new models between May and August, including the M03 MAX, P7 facelift, and G7, which are expected to replicate the success of previous models [3] Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with expectations for doubling overseas sales in 2025 [4] Valuation and Estimates - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, maintaining a premium valuation for the sales business at 2.1x 2025E PS, compared to peers [5][12] - The target price has been raised to 119.99 HKD, reflecting the company's growth potential and market position [5][12]