Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking and securities sectors [9]. Core Insights - The overall AUM of China's asset management industry reached approximately 175.61 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors including banking wealth management, public funds, private equity, insurance, and trusts [15][16]. - The banking wealth management sector saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, reaching 31.63 trillion yuan, while public funds grew by 12% to 36.32 trillion yuan [15][16]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the issuance of financial products, with a notable increase in the number of new products launched in December 2025 compared to November [17][29]. Summary by Relevant Sections Banking Wealth Management - As of the end of 2025, the banking wealth management sector had a total AUM of 31.63 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [15][17]. - In December 2025, the market issued 3,039 wealth management products, a month-on-month increase of 15.5% [17][20]. - The average yield for wealth management products rose to 1.79% in December, an increase of 54 basis points from the previous month [43]. Public Funds - The total AUM of public funds reached 36.32 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [15][16]. - The issuance of new fund shares decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, but there was a notable increase in the proportion of equity and mixed funds [15][16]. Private Equity - By the end of November 2025, the private equity sector's AUM was 22.09 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.19% [15][16]. - In November, the sector saw a significant increase in new registrations, with a total of 713 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 97% [15][16]. Insurance Asset Management - The insurance sector's investment balance reached 37.46 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 17% [15][16]. - The proportion of stock investments within the insurance asset management sector has increased, indicating a shift towards equity investments [15][16]. Securities Asset Management - As of Q3 2025, the securities asset management sector had an AUM of 6.37 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [15][16]. - The number of new shares issued in December 2025 was 6.5 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 45% [15][16]. Trusts - The trust sector's total asset scale was 32.43 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 10% [15][16]. - In December, the issuance of trust products decreased by 6% month-on-month, totaling 640 billion yuan [15][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for non-ferrous metals and basic metals and processing [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026-2027 due to the resonance of recovery cycles and supply constraints, with copper and aluminum prices influenced by supply hard constraints and demand recovery [1] - The global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons despite some demand drag from construction and photovoltaics [2] - The electrolytic copper supply is expected to remain limited with a year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction, resulting in a shift from surplus to shortage [3] - Energy metals such as cobalt and lithium have confirmed price bottoms in 2025, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026-2027 [4] - Strategic metals like tungsten are anticipated to continue facing shortages due to strict mining controls in China, while the magnesium industry is expected to improve as it increasingly substitutes aluminum in lightweight applications [5] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal industry is projected to experience sustained high prosperity in 2026-2027, driven by a combination of supply constraints and demand recovery [1] Aluminum - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to grow at a slow rate of 1.7% in 2026, leading to a supply gap of over 800,000 tons, which supports a bullish outlook for aluminum prices [2] Copper - The electrolytic copper supply is limited with a projected year-on-year increase of 66,000 tons (2.4%), while demand is expected to grow by 93,000 tons (3.3%), resulting in a shift to a supply shortage [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt and lithium prices are expected to rise as supply-demand dynamics improve, with lithium benefiting from increased battery storage demand and cobalt facing supply constraints from Congo [4] Strategic Metals - Tungsten is expected to remain in short supply due to strict mining regulations in China, while magnesium is anticipated to gain market share in lightweight applications, improving its industry outlook [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors [5] Core Insights - The bulk chemical industry is at a dual cycle inflection point, with profitability expected to recover as domestic and international demand improves in 2026 [1][3] - After a prolonged period of low profitability, the industry is entering a phase of reduced capacity expansion and inventory adjustments, with limited new capacity expected in 2026-2027 [2][3] - The dividend payout ratio for Chinese bulk chemical companies is anticipated to trend upwards due to decreased capital expenditure intensity compared to the 2015-2025 period [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The bulk chemical industry has experienced a significant downturn in profitability since 2023, with a notable oversupply leading to continued low earnings through the second half of 2025 [2] - The industry is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026 as demand begins to rebound [1][3] Capacity and Inventory Cycles - The current inventory cycle is at a turning point, with passive inventory replenishment observed since the second quarter of 2025, influenced by external demand factors [3] - The report indicates that the capacity expansion in the bulk chemical sector will be orderly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with limited new capacity additions expected [2] Dividend and Capital Expenditure Trends - The report highlights that the capital expenditure intensity for the bulk chemical sector is likely to decrease significantly, leading to an increase in dividend payout ratios for companies in this space [4] - Recommended companies include Xinhengcheng, Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Sinopec A/H, which are expected to benefit from these trends [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including 亚翔集成 (603929 CH), 中材国际 (600970 CH), 四川路桥 (600039 CH), 精工钢构 (600496 CH), 东方雨虹 (002271 CH), 凯盛科技 (600552 CH), 华新建材 (600801 CH), 中国巨石 (600176 CH), 中国核建 (601611 CH), and 上峰水泥 (000672 CH) [10][32][33][34][35][36] Core Insights - The report highlights that AI upgrades and domestic substitution are driving continued high demand in cleanroom and electronic fabric sectors, with significant capital expenditure increases from major companies like Micron and TSMC [2][13] - The cleanroom and electronic fabric markets are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, particularly for high-end products, due to ongoing investments in advanced processes and PCB [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of emerging industries and traditional sectors, recommending a balanced investment approach in Q1 2026 [2][13] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cleanroom and electronic fabric sectors are experiencing sustained high demand driven by AI hardware investments, with TSMC raising its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to USD 52-56 billion, a 30% increase from 2025 [2][13] - The report notes that the supply of high-end electronic fabrics is tight, particularly for second-generation fabrics and Low CTE (LCTE) products, which are expected to see price increases [2][13] Company Dynamics - 亚翔集成's revenue forecast has been adjusted upwards based on strong order growth and capital expenditure increases from major semiconductor companies [14][33] - 中材国际 reported a 12% year-on-year increase in new orders for 2025, indicating a recovery in its order structure and a shift away from reliance on the domestic cement industry [34] - 四川路桥's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1.95% year-on-year, with a significant rise in net profit, reflecting strong project execution and order growth [35] Market Trends - The report indicates that the cement market is facing a slight decline in prices, with a 1.4% decrease week-on-week, while the glass market shows mixed performance across regions [22][23] - The electronic fabric market is experiencing stable prices after recent increases, with a continued tight supply for high-end products [20][27] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in cleanroom and electronic fabric sectors, including 亚翔集成, 中材国际, and 四川路桥, among others [2][10][32][33][34][35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the uranium mining sector, indicating an expectation for the sector's stock index to outperform the benchmark [6]. Core Insights - Recent increases in both spot and long-term uranium prices have been driven by strong demand expectations catalyzed by U.S. policy changes, with spot prices reaching $85/lbs and long-term prices at $86.5/lbs [1][2]. - The U.S. government's actions, including the designation of natural uranium as a critical mineral, are expected to accelerate the domestic uranium stockpiling cycle, enhancing the investment thesis for the uranium sector [2][4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-Russia relations and the potential non-renewal of the New START treaty, could further tighten the uranium supply chain and push prices higher [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The U.S. is focusing on enhancing its domestic uranium supply capabilities and strategic reserves, suggesting a global uranium stockpiling cycle may commence sooner than anticipated [4]. - The U.S. Department of Energy has indicated a need to increase strategic uranium reserves to mitigate supply risks, particularly in light of reduced Russian supply [2][4]. Supply Side - The report highlights the fragility of uranium supply, with leading suppliers reducing production guidance and mid-tier producers facing production challenges [4]. - Upcoming operational data from key producers, such as the KAP project, is anticipated to provide further insights into production forecasts [4]. Company Recommendation - The report specifically recommends China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) as a key player in the uranium sector, projecting a target price of HKD 4.05 and maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to its strong operational performance and price elasticity [8][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the global nuclear energy revival, with a significant portion of its sales tied to spot prices, enhancing its profitability outlook [11].

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - The global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate by 2026, with "consumables" growth significantly surpassing the initial phase of AI investments[1] - AI investment in 2025 is projected to reach $460 billion, accounting for approximately 1.5% of GDP, exceeding the peak of the internet bubble period[13] - The demand for commodities related to AI is anticipated to increase exponentially, with a low price sensitivity due to supply-side constraints[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policies and Defense Spending - Major economies like the US, Europe, and Japan are implementing expansionary fiscal policies, focusing on defense and supply chain security, which will increase "consumable" demand[2] - NATO countries' defense spending is expected to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% by 2035, with annual increases of 0.13 percentage points required for EU countries[49] - Germany and France are projected to reach defense spending targets of 3-3.5% of GDP by 2030, necessitating annual increases of 0.2 percentage points[52] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Recovery - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience an upturn, driven by AI-related investments and infrastructure demands, positively impacting exports, especially from Asia[59] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to decrease, which may alleviate the drag on manufacturing investments[61] - The US corporate investment growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 4.8%[62]

证券研究报告 SK 海力士 (000660 KS) AI 全栈存储的价值重估 | 华泰研究 | | 深度研究 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 18 日│韩国 | 半导体 | 目标价(韩元): | 1,100,000.00 | 历史上存储被视为典型的周期性商品，特征是资本支出在景气驱动下的扩张 和收缩循环以及同质化的产品竞争。我们认为当前不仅是存储周期的上行阶 段，更是由 AI 算力瓶颈驱动的超级周期。我们看好 SK 海力士受益于布局 HBM、HBF、传统 DRAM 和 eSSD 等关键环节，具备捕捉新存储层级放量 红利的全栈优势，或将经历从周期股向 AI 成长股的估值重构。重申"买入"。 HBM 龙头地位持续巩固，DRAM 全栈完善，形成双引擎增长格局 HBM 的带宽、能效与封装难度远高于传统 DRAM，而 AI 芯片算力利用率高 度依赖 HBM 供给，使其成为 GPU/ASIC 系统扩建的核心瓶颈之一。得益于 TSV 良率、MR-MUF 键合技术与 1β/1γ节点的领先积累，海力士在 HBM3E/4 客户认证 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Technical Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to fully explore technical information to depict market conditions, breaking down the vague concept of "market state" into five dimensions: price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding. It generates a comprehensive score ranging from -1 to +1 based on equal-weighted voting of timing signals from 10 selected indicators[9][14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 10 effective market observation indicators across the five dimensions (e.g., 20-day Bollinger Bands, 20-day price deviation rate, 60-day turnover rate volatility, etc.)[14] 2. Generate long/short timing signals for each indicator individually 3. Aggregate the signals through equal-weighted voting to form a comprehensive score[9][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and timely way for investors to observe and understand the market[9] 2. Model Name: Dividend Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model times the dividend style by analyzing the relative performance of the CSI Dividend Index against the CSI All Share Index, using three indicators: relative momentum, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo trading volume[16][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate daily signals (0, +1, -1) for each indicator, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively 2. Aggregate the scores to determine the overall long/short view on the dividend style 3. When bullish, fully allocate to the CSI Dividend Index; when bearish, fully allocate to the CSI All Share Index[16][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently maintained a bearish view on the dividend style this year, favoring growth style instead[16] 3. Model Name: Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the crowding level of large-cap and small-cap styles based on momentum and trading volume differences, adjusting the strategy based on whether the market is in a high or low crowding state[20][22][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate momentum differences and trading volume ratios between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the CSI 300 Index over multiple time windows 2. Derive crowding scores for both large-cap and small-cap styles based on percentile rankings of the calculated metrics 3. Use a dual moving average model with smaller parameters in high crowding states and larger parameters in low crowding states to determine trends[20][22][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the medium- to long-term trends in low crowding states and reacts to potential reversals in high crowding states[22] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model employs genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry index data (e.g., price, volume, valuation) without relying on predefined scoring rules. It uses a dual-objective approach to optimize factor monotonicity and top-group performance[27][30][31] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use NSGA-II algorithm to optimize two objectives: |IC| and NDCG@5 2. Combine multiple factors with weak collinearity into industry scores using greedy strategies and variance inflation factors 3. Select the top five industries with the highest composite scores for equal-weighted allocation[30][33][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-objective genetic programming approach enhances factor diversity and reduces overfitting risks[30][33] 5. Model Name: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro factor risk parity framework, emphasizing diversification across underlying macro risk sources (growth and inflation surprises) rather than asset classes[38][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide macroeconomic scenarios into four quadrants based on growth and inflation surprises 2. Construct sub-portfolios within each quadrant using equal-weighted assets, focusing on downside risk 3. Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on macro momentum indicators, actively overweighting favorable quadrants[41][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves enhanced performance by actively allocating based on macroeconomic expectations[38][41] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Technical Scoring Model - Annualized Return: 20.67% - Annualized Volatility: 17.33% - Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.19 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87[15] 2. Dividend Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 16.65% - Maximum Drawdown: -25.52% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.91 - Calmar Ratio: 0.65 - YTD Return: 5.78%[17] 3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 27.79% - Maximum Drawdown: -32.05% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.16 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87 - YTD Return: 6.27%[25] 4. Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - Annualized Return: 31.95% - Annualized Volatility: 17.44% - Maximum Drawdown: -19.62% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.83 - Calmar Ratio: 1.63 - YTD Return: 3.31%[30] 5. China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized Return: 11.82% - Annualized Volatility: 6.20% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.91 - Calmar Ratio: 1.88 - YTD Return: 2.02%[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of its cartridge bottle components, with projected revenue growth in 2026 [1][4]. - The global AI-enabled drug development market is anticipated to grow from USD 11.9 billion in 2023 to USD 74.6 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.6% [3]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary and investment in Suzhou Kema Biotechnology are seen as strategic moves to enhance the company's capabilities in AI drug development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at RMB 69.60, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 85x for 2026, which is a premium compared to the industry average [5][7]. Company Strategy - The company has made significant investments in AI drug development, including the establishment of an AI pharmaceutical committee and partnerships with technology firms [1][3]. - The company aims to leverage its extensive customer base of over 1,000 pharmaceutical companies across more than 40 countries to facilitate the commercialization of its AI-enabled drug development initiatives [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 896.34 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 17.17% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 134.46 million in 2026, reflecting a 24.44% increase from the previous year [11]. - The company anticipates a stable performance in its core business of pharmaceutical rubber stoppers, with revenue growth expected to be between 5% and 15% [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lianlian Digital with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 10.20, corresponding to a 2026 estimated price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 5x [1][17]. Core Insights - Lianlian Digital is a leading independent digital payment service provider in China, primarily offering cross-border payment solutions for Chinese merchants, facilitating foreign currency collection abroad and repatriation to China [13][30]. - The cross-border payment market has significant growth potential, driven by increasing global trade and e-commerce penetration, with forecasts indicating that China's cross-border payment total payment volume (TPV) will reach CNY 17.1 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of approximately 22.1% from 2025 to 2028 [13][23]. - Lianlian's competitive advantages include a comprehensive global licensing network and partnerships, enabling it to support transactions in over 130 currencies across more than 100 countries [14][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, Lianlian's total TPV reached CNY 2.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with cross-border payment TPV at CNY 198.5 billion, up 94% year-on-year [9][15]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of CNY 4.021 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of CNY 1.442 billion, primarily driven by gains from equity disposals and dilution benefits from capital increases [6][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 1H25 was approximately CNY 0.6 billion, indicating a near break-even point, with expectations for profitability improvements in the long term [8][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Lianlian's market share in China's cross-border payment industry is projected to increase from 2.9% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024, reflecting its expanding footprint in the sector [13][15]. - The company is focused on enhancing its payment technology and infrastructure, with a commitment to R&D expenditures of around 20-30% of revenue, aimed at optimizing cross-border payment services [10][14]. - Lianlian's business model includes not only cross-border payments but also domestic payment services and value-added services, which are increasingly contributing to revenue growth [31][60].