证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 摩托车及其他 投资要点 2024 年业绩一次性扰动出清，龙头底色不改 1） 收入业绩短期承压：2024 年全年公司实现收入 282.36 亿元，同比减少 18.8%；实现利润 12.72 亿元，同比减少 51.8%；实现归母净利率 4.51%，同比减 少 3.09pct。业绩下滑主要系安全事件下需求阶段性真空，以及新旧国标切换过 程中，企业短期适应成本增加，公司为加速清仓旧车型采取了降价策略。其他收 入及收益净额录得 6.43 亿元，同比减少 34.4%，主要系本年度未收取类似政府 补助及汇兑亏损净额增加所致。 2） 销量下滑，重振节奏：销量约 1302.05 万辆，同比减少 21.2%，其中，电动 自行车销量 908.95 万辆，同比减少 21.4%，占比 69.8%；电动踏板车销量 393.10 万辆，同比减少 20.7%。销量下滑主要系 2024 年 H1 受国检扰动，H2 待国标修 订，经销商观望中提货意愿较低，且公司产品推新活动受阻，经营节奏明显放 缓，但 12 月以来经营已正常化，新品拉动和补库带来边际明显改善。 3） 毛利率略有调整，费用端保持稳定：2024 年公 ...

经纪收入增速较高，投资业务驱动增长 ——中国银河 2024 年年报点评报告 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 证券Ⅱ ❑ 业绩概览 2024 年中国银河实现营业收入 354.7 亿元，同比增长 5.43%；归母净利润 100.3 亿元，同比增长 27.31%；加权平均净资产收益率 8.30%，同比增加 0.74pct。 2024 年公司经纪、投行、资管、利息、投资净收入同比增速分别为 12%/11%/6%/-8%/50%，占比分别为 17%/2%/1%/11%/32%。 ❑ 经纪业务收入增速大幅改善 2024 年中国银河实现经纪业务净收入 61.9 亿，同比增长 12%，较 9M24 的-12% 显著提高，主要得益于 24Q4 市场日均股基成交额同比增长 119%至 20,684 亿 元。财富管理方面，公司代销金融产品超 800 亿元，年末代销金融产品保有规模 为 2,111 亿元，同比增长 7.8%。"银河金熠"累计签约客户超过 7,400 人。科技 赋能方面，公司升级自研投顾平台"G-Winstar"，通过 DeepSeek-R1"全尺寸" 模型与通义千问模型的深度适配优化，加强 AI 技术在业务 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.4%, with a significant increase in net profit [1][5] - The company continues to expand its store network, adding 240 new stores in 2024, and has maintained positive same-store sales growth for 30 consecutive quarters since Q3 2017 [1][4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong average daily sales level, with a projected opening of around 300 new stores in 2025, primarily in new growth markets [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 72.9%, an improvement of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit margin of 3.0%, reflecting its profitability potential [2] - The average daily sales per store reached 13,100 yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, driven mainly by new store openings [3] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.394 billion yuan, 6.521 billion yuan, and 8.160 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 0.76 billion yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 2.79 billion yuan in the same years [6][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is a leader in high-end packaging materials and is expected to restart high growth, with rapid growth anticipated in smart terminal and integrated circuit packaging materials, alongside a turning point in profitability for new energy application materials [1] - The market previously expected the company's growth to be moderate due to a high proportion of revenue from new energy application materials and unclear growth potential in smart terminal and integrated circuit packaging materials [2] - The report argues that the company is entering a turning point in short-term operations, with expected performance exceeding market expectations and significant long-term growth potential [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Super Expected Logic - The company has significant room for import substitution in smart terminal and integrated circuit packaging materials, with ongoing mass shipments in various fields such as wafer UV film materials and thermal interface materials [2] - The LIPO technology is expected to penetrate quickly, creating new demand for photosensitive resin, representing a new growth point for the company [2] - The high proportion of revenue from new energy application materials is expected to gradually improve gross margins [2] - The consolidation of Taijino is anticipated to expand solutions for AI data centers and robotics, leading to rapid growth [2] Section 2: Verification Indicators and Catalysts - Key verification indicators include the penetration rate of LIPO technology and the growth rates of revenue and net profit [3] - Potential catalysts include frequent releases of LIPO terminals, the company's layout in AI data centers and robotics, and performance exceeding expectations [3] Section 3: Research Value - The report presents a unique perspective, arguing that the market underestimates the growth potential of packaging materials due to their variety and low value, as well as the complexity of application fields [4] - The company is positioned as a platform company in packaging materials, with strong R&D capabilities and significant market space for import substitution, particularly in high-end packaging materials where foreign companies dominate [4] - The growth rhythm of the company will depend on the cyclical stages of various downstream fields, with expectations for rapid growth in smart terminals and integrated circuits by 2025, alongside improvements in gross margins for new energy packaging materials [4] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.17 billion, 1.51 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 29%, and 23% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 100 million, 170 million, and 250 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -6%, 72%, and 48% respectively [5] - The target price is set at 52.89 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 45 times for 2025, compared to an average PE of 55 times for comparable companies [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 02 日 对跨季后资金面的再思考 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 在央行兼顾多重目标和财政二季度加力的两大硬约束下，如果央行继续保持"态度呵 护、操作克制"，跨季后资金面大概率趋于均衡，资金利率大幅下穿 1.8%的可能性不 大，资金面"量足价高"的局面有望持续，1.8%的资金利率可能是相对合意的位置。 ❑ 临近一季度末，央行态度边际转暖，出手呵护资金面。跨季资金面基本无虞以后， 央行操作重回克制。央行操作意图明确，引导资金面趋于均衡。 3 月中旬开始，央行在公开市场上加大净投放；3 月 24 日，创新式超额续作 MLF； 3 月 25 日起，OMO 招标首次公开投标量，中标量完全满足投标量。跨季资金面 无虞后，央行 3 月买断式逆回购仅净投放 1000 亿，中长期流动性投放规模小于 1、2 月，3 月 31 日央行仅小额净投放，4 月 1 日大额净回笼，操作重回克制。 ❑ 跨季前，资金面呈现"量足价高"的特点。 量足指的是大行的融出规模明显提升至 3.6 万亿以上，国股行重新成为最大的资 金融出方。一级存单发行利 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 02 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 02 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 浙商早报 1 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商策略 李超/覃汉/陈奥林】策略专题研究：2025 年四月策略金股报告——20250330 重要点评 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】传媒 行业点评：多模态发展提速，ChatGPT"文生图"效果大幅提升—— 20250330 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：4 月 1 日上证指数上涨 0.38%，沪深 300 上涨 0.01%，科创 50 上涨 0.16%，中证 1000 上涨 0.53%，创业板 指下跌 0.09%，恒生指数上涨 0.38%。 行业：4 月 1 日表现最好的行业分别是医药生物（+3.34%)、公用事业（+1.78%)、国防军工（+1.46%)、钢铁 （+1.32%)、煤炭（+1.29%)，表现最差的行业分别是家用电器（-1.71%)、计算机 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yunnan Baiyao is maintained as "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.033 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.749 billion yuan, up 16.02% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its structure and enhancing efficiency, with the industrial segment achieving a revenue of 14.468 billion yuan, a 5.30% increase year-on-year, and further increasing its share of total revenue to 36.14% [6]. - The pharmaceutical segment saw significant growth, with sales of Yunnan Baiyao aerosol products exceeding 2.1 billion yuan, a growth of over 26% year-on-year [6]. - The company is also enhancing its new business divisions, with the medical device segment achieving a revenue of 425 million yuan, a 61% increase year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin for the industrial segment improved to 65.93%, up 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, while operating cash flow increased by 22.68% year-on-year [6]. - The company plans to increase its dividend distribution, with a proposed cash dividend of 11.85 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.114 billion yuan, which represents 90.09% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6]. - The strategic plan for 2024-2028 emphasizes both internal and external growth strategies, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and explore new business opportunities [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 41.459 billion yuan, 43.433 billion yuan, and 45.167 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 3.56%, 4.76%, and 3.99% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.181 billion yuan, 5.712 billion yuan, and 6.205 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9.09%, 10.24%, and 8.63% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.90 yuan, 3.20 yuan, and 3.48 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.65x, 17.83x, and 16.41x [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company reported a 0.55% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations [1] - The company experienced a decline in core traffic flow due to insufficient demand, adverse weather, and expansion projects, leading to significant cost reductions in Q4 [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.604 yuan per share and a payout ratio of 60.02% for 2024 [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.94%, and a net profit of 1.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55% [1][5] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.801 billion yuan, 1.898 billion yuan, and 1.795 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.01 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.54 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's profit is expected to significantly increase in 2024, driven by structural factors such as the Red Sea detour and extended North American inventory replenishment cycles, which may support price resilience in 2025 [2][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its container shipping and port operations, with strategic developments in key locations such as Peru and Abu Dhabi, which will diversify its revenue structure [2] - The company has a strong financial position with a cash balance of 185.1 billion and a price-to-book ratio of only 0.99, indicating sustained investment value [3] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 233.9 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.29%, and a net profit of 49.1 billion, up 105.78% [4][8] - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 226.9 billion, 211.5 billion, and 202.3 billion respectively, with expected net profits of 41.1 billion, 25.2 billion, and 12.6 billion [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 3.08, decreasing to 2.57 in 2025 and further to 1.58 in 2026 [4] Operational Performance - The company maintains a leading position in global shipping capacity with a self-operated fleet exceeding 3.3 million TEU, and has extended its ocean alliance cooperation until 2032 [8] - The average revenue per container increased by 30.3% to 1,375 USD/TEU due to rising shipping rates following the Red Sea events [8] - The company has implemented a high dividend and share buyback strategy, distributing 1.03 per share in dividends with a payout ratio of 50% [8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 航海装备Ⅱ 中船防务(600685) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 01 日 业绩处于预告中枢水平，2024 年归母净利润同比大增 685% ——中船防务点评报告 ❑ 盈利能力持续修复，2024 毛利率、净利率同比增长 1.13、1.98pct 盈利能力：2024 年销售毛利率、净利率分别约 7.76%、2.43%，同比增长 1.13、 1.98pct。核心业务造船毛利率 9.33%，同比增长 3.86pct。其中，集装箱船毛利 率 23.96%，同比大增 10.9pct；散货船毛利率 12.2%，同比大增 11.84pct；特种 船及其他毛利率 0.72%，同比下降 1.27pct。2024Q4 单季度销售毛利率 6%，同比 下降 0.35pct，环比下降 5.47pct；销售净利率 3.28%，同比增长 2.67pct，环比 增长 1.63pct。 费用端：2024 年期间费用率 6.8%，同比增长 0.03pct，主要系财务、研发费用率 增长所致。其中，销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别约 0.25%、3.42%、 4.58%、-1.45%，分别同比变动-0.49、-0 ...