- The report constructs a quantitative timing indicator for the US Dollar Index by integrating five key factors: US economic fundamentals, US interest rate advantage, USD long-short position differences, global financial stress, and US fiscal deficit[1][16][22] - The construction process involves detrending, denoising, and standardizing these factors, followed by equal-weighted synthesis to form the final timing indicator[2][25] - The timing indicator is effective in predicting the US Dollar Index's upward trend when it is above the zero axis and marginally rising, with a success rate of 74.1% in such conditions[2][29][35] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Model Name**: US Dollar Timing Indicator - **Construction Idea**: Integrate multiple economic and financial factors to predict the US Dollar Index's movements[1][16] - **Construction Process**: 1. Identify five key factors influencing USD demand: US economic fundamentals, US interest rate advantage, USD long-short position differences, global financial stress, and US fiscal deficit[1][16][22] 2. Detrend the factors with long-term trends using rolling HP filter[25] 3. Denoise and standardize the factors[25] 4. Combine the factors with equal weights to form the final timing indicator[25] 5. The indicator uses zero as the historical fluctuation center, indicating a tendency for the USD Index to rise when above zero[25] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively predicts the USD Index's upward trend when above zero and marginally rising, with a 74.1% success rate[2][29][35] Model Backtesting Results 1. **US Dollar Timing Indicator** - **0 Axis Above + Marginally Rising**: 74.1% probability of USD Index rising next month[29][35] - **0 Axis Above + Marginally Falling**: 48.0% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **0 Axis Below + Marginally Rising**: 35.4% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **0 Axis Below + Marginally Falling**: 49.0% probability of USD Index rising next month[35] - **Overall Sample**: 52.3% probability of USD Index rising next month[35]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.4%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were coal (+2.4%), banking (+1.4%), food and beverage (+1.0%), communication (+0.7%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-2.1%), non-ferrous metals (-2.1%), building materials (-1.9%), basic chemicals (-1.8%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.6%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 19,311 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.82 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value: -0.4%), which was lower than market expectations and prior forecasts (Wind consensus expectation: -0.1%). The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1% (previous value: 0%) [5] - The market anticipates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate is likely to turn positive quickly [5] - The M1-M2 gap is narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the migration of household deposits. In September, fiscal spending exceeded revenue, leading to an increase in both household and corporate deposits [6] - The forecast for excess household savings from 2020 to September 2025 is expected to decrease to 2.89 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.01 trillion yuan), with a notable slowdown in the decline of excess savings in September [6] Light Industry Strategy Report - For Q4 2025, the report emphasizes three main lines: 1) The new consumption sector continues to thrive, with potential valuation shifts for growth stocks. 2) Quality manufacturing and traditional consumption stocks at the bottom of the cycle are expected to see upward opportunities, along with high dividend value. 3) The overseas market is showing gradual improvement after tariff stabilization [8] - The new consumption sector is expected to maintain strong growth, with significant differentiation among companies. The international tobacco giants are continuing to grow, and the pet industry is anticipated to remain highly competitive during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - Quality manufacturing is expected to benefit from price increases in metal cans and favorable conditions in the paper and plastic packaging sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability in Q4 [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - It is expected that large banks will increase their bond purchases while small banks will sell bonds to improve performance [3] - The behavior of banks in the secondary bond market is influenced by three main factors: passive allocation behavior, active allocation behavior, and risk indicator constraints [3][9][10] - In the first half of 2025, the core revenue growth rates for different types of banks varied, with state-owned banks showing a slight decline while city commercial banks experienced growth [18][24] Summary by Sections 1. Factors Influencing Bank Bond Trading Behavior - Passive allocation behavior involves using remaining liquidity to participate in the secondary market, enhancing fund utilization [9] - Active allocation behavior is driven by performance pressures, leading banks to adjust positions to enhance revenue or mitigate risks [10] - Risk indicator constraints require banks to adjust their bond maturity structure based on liquidity and interest rate risks [11] 2. Reasons for Significant Bond Selling in March to June 2025 - The primary reason for the significant bond selling was the performance pressure on small banks, which needed to realize gains from OCI/AC accounts to improve earnings [12] - Remaining liquidity did not significantly decrease during this period, indicating that the selling behavior was more related to active management rather than passive allocation [13] - The performance pressure was particularly acute for small banks, which had to sell older bonds to support their revenue [17][18] 3. Different Motivations for Bond Trading Among Bank Types - State-owned banks are primarily constrained by remaining liquidity and are expected to focus on buying bonds [3] - Joint-stock banks are experiencing significant performance pressure, leading to a reduction in AC account sizes [3] - City and rural commercial banks are also facing performance pressures, resulting in a contraction of both AC and OCI account sizes [3] 4. Future Expectations for Bank Bond Selling - In the coming months, large banks are expected to focus on buying bonds, while small banks may continue to sell older bonds to improve their performance [3] - The passive allocation behavior is anticipated to remain strong due to increased remaining liquidity, while small banks may increase their selling activities [4] - Risk indicator pressures are expected to ease as supply pressures diminish, leading to a reduction in bond selling by state-owned banks [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on small banks in economically developed regions and stable high-dividend large banks, with specific recommendations for banks such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Nanjing Bank [4]

Core Insights - The current bond market is experiencing a bottom consolidation for 5-year and 10-year government bonds, while the ultra-long end is still in the process of clearing last chips, leading to a lag in stabilization for the ultra-long end compared to the medium and short ends. Investors are advised to strategically position in 5-10 year mid-long term varieties while waiting for signals of redemption disturbances to ease and risk appetite to decline [1][2][32] Historical Context - Historical instances of "medium-short end stabilizing first, ultra-long end lagging in decline" provide insights into the current bond market. Notable periods include September 2013 during the "money shortage," May 2020 at the onset of "bond bull to bear," and November 2022 during the "redemption wave" [1][2][9] Market Dynamics - The core driving forces behind the current market dynamics can be summarized as: "short end driven by liquidity, long end driven by supply, and ultra-long end driven by the last chips." The market since August 2025 is replicating this script, with the "chips" now being influenced by new fund fee regulations and cautious sentiment under rising risk appetite [2][32] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to focus on the 5-10 year mid-long term bonds as the ultra-long end continues to clear out last chips. The recommendation is to wait for signs of easing redemption disturbances and a decline in risk appetite before making significant moves [1][2][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 4.2 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, achieving a historical high for quarterly revenue, while profit was 317 million HKD, down 16.4% [1] - The company announced a new stock incentive plan, granting stock options and reward shares to employees, indicating ongoing commitment to employee motivation [1] - HNB product shipments have significantly increased, with positive feedback on the Glo Hilo product in Japan, and plans for expansion into European markets [2] - The ODM business has shown growth due to increased compliance orders, while the self-branded products have successfully iterated flagship offerings and improved local marketing efforts [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the regulatory crackdown on illegal products in the vaping industry, leading to a recovery in the market [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 141.75 billion HKD, 166.89 billion HKD, and 194.95 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.14%, 17.73%, and 16.81% [4][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.80 billion HKD, 19.34 billion HKD, and 26.52 billion HKD for the same years, with growth rates of -17.15%, 79.13%, and 37.10% [4][11] - The current market capitalization is approximately 96.43 billion HKD, with a closing price of 15.57 HKD per share [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.5%, the STAR 50 gained 1.4%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.5%, the ChiNext Index surged by 2.4%, and the Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.8% [5][4] - The best-performing sectors included power equipment (+2.7%), automotive (+2.4%), electronics (+2.3%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+2.1%), and retail (+1.9%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-0.2%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.1%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.0%), real estate (+0.1%), and defense and military industry (+0.2%) [5][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,729 billion, with a net outflow of 5.44 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][4] Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive sector report emphasizes three main investment opportunities: robotics, bus exports, and intelligent driving [6] - The market perception of technological advancements and potential profit growth in the automotive sector is considered insufficient [6] - Key drivers include significant changes in the robotics industry, strong bus export volumes, and rapid advancements in applications for autonomous vehicles [6] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Insights - The core viewpoint is that pig farming and cattle breeding remain the main focus, with an emphasis on capturing post-cycle opportunities [7] - The report notes a continuous decline in pig prices, a gradual reversal in the beef cycle, and persistent low milk prices [7] - Key drivers include rising pig prices due to policy shifts towards "anti-involution" and increasing beef prices as traditional demand peaks in Q4 [7] Macro Economic Insights - The macroeconomic report highlights a significant increase in exports to Africa, driven by Chinese companies seeking new markets amid US trade tensions [8] - The report suggests that the high growth in exports may be a result of "export grabbing" [8] - The potential for industrial layout in African economies is noted as a key differentiator from market expectations [8] Fixed Income and Credit Bond Insights - The fixed income report indicates that the positive spread between rental yields and risk-free rates could provide guidance for housing prices, with 2027 expected to be a critical year for identifying the bottom of the real estate market [9] - The report anticipates a "L-shaped" bottoming out of the real estate market rather than a V-shaped rebound, highlighting significant structural differentiation [9] - Key drivers include the rental return rate as a critical reference for when housing prices may bottom out, with expectations for rental yields to reach near a decade-high by the end of 2027 [9]

Inflation Data Summary - September CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of -0.1% and previous value of -0.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0.1%, compared to 0% in the previous month[2] - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, an improvement from -2.9% previously and above the expected -2.4%[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase[3] - Year-on-year, food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting CPI by about 0.83 percentage points[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% growth in 19 months[4] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter's asset performance will largely depend on risk appetite, with a potential shift from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks[1] - A gradual decline in risk appetite is anticipated post-APEC, particularly after November[1] - Bond yields are expected to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing[1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that since September, the small-cap sectors represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have entered a period of consolidation, while technology-weighted stocks have seen strong gains. Recently, technology stocks have begun to adjust, which is viewed as a correction of strong stocks, characteristic of the later stage of market consolidation. As this period of fluctuation approaches its end, small-cap stocks are expected to stabilize first [1][3][4]. Trend Dimension - The current market is in a small-cap outperformance cycle, which began in 2022 with the rise of the AI industry. This cycle is expected to last 5-7 years, indicating a shift in market style driven by the transition between traditional and emerging industries [2][11]. Wave Dimension - From a wave perspective, small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed technology-weighted stocks since September. The CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 have lagged behind the STAR 50 and ChiNext 50 indices. As technology stocks enter a correction phase, small-cap stocks are anticipated to stabilize as the market moves towards the end of the consolidation period. Additionally, historical data suggests that small-cap stocks have a higher probability of outperforming the broader market in November, following the release of Q3 reports [3][15][23]. Industry Dimension - Potential directions for small-cap technology stocks during the October consolidation period include AI applications (both software and hardware), the expansion of domestic computing power, and the proliferation of innovative drugs. For AI applications, there are notable advancements in large models and vertical applications, while hardware applications are led by robotics and innovations such as autonomous driving and AI glasses. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technological advancements and new product developments in these areas [4][25][26]. - The report also highlights that leading companies in AI chips, wafer manufacturing, storage, and semiconductor equipment have already seen gains, suggesting that there are opportunities for small-cap stocks to benefit from ongoing technological and market developments. In the innovative drug sector, if the upward trend in market conditions continues, small-cap stocks are expected to follow suit [25][26].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies in response to market changes, particularly in the context of the upcoming fourth quarter [1] - It highlights the potential impact of new regulations on the bond market, specifically regarding redemption fees for bond funds and money market funds, which could lead to a shift in investment flows [5][7] - The report discusses the current economic environment, noting a significant change in the underlying logic of the stock and bond markets, suggesting a phase of "strong stocks and weak bonds" may continue [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the recent tariff threats from the U.S. may have a limited long-term impact on the markets, as the financial environment has changed since previous similar events [4] - It notes that the bond market sentiment has weakened, and the current environment may allow for a temporary recovery in bond prices, despite the overall bearish sentiment [4][13] - The report suggests that the equity market is showing signs of a bull market, which may lead to short-term adjustments but not a reversal of long-term trends [4][13] Regulatory Changes - The new redemption fee regulations for bond and money market funds are expected to reduce the attractiveness of these investments, potentially leading to a shift towards equity and mixed funds [5][7] - The report outlines the specific changes in redemption fees, indicating that fees for redemptions within six months will increase to at least 50 basis points, which could further diminish returns for bond fund investors [5][7] Economic Indicators - The report provides a summary of key economic indicators for August and July, highlighting a decline in industrial production and fixed asset investment, which may reflect broader economic challenges [15][16] - It discusses the implications of the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting it aims to address issues of excessive competition among local governments and may impact production and investment dynamics [10][16] Investment Strategy - The report advises investors to consider reallocating their portfolios, particularly moving from 30-year bonds to 10-year bonds, as the latter may offer better risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment [50] - It emphasizes the need for investors to be agile and responsive to market conditions, particularly in light of the recent adjustments in the bond market and the evolving economic landscape [47][50]

Market Overview - On October 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62%, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.2%, the STAR 50 dropped by 4.26%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.95%, the ChiNext Index fell by 3.99%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.73% [4] - The best-performing sectors on October 14 were banking (+2.51%), coal (+2.18%), food and beverage (+1.69%), transportation (+0.5%), and utilities (+0.49%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-4.98%), electronics (-4.64%), non-ferrous metals (-3.66%), computers (-2.98%), and electrical equipment (-2.36%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on October 14 was 25,966 billion, with a net inflow of 8.603 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Cosmetic Industry - The cosmetic market is expected to continue low single-digit growth in Q4, with brand differentiation increasing. New consumer brands are recommended as they have upward momentum and room for valuation switching towards 2026 [5] - New consumer brands are anticipated to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20%-30% in revenue and profit over the next 2-3 years, maintaining attractiveness in terms of market conditions and certainty [6] Computer Industry - The rise of domestic computing power and the application of AI are highlighted as key trends. The large-scale implementation of large language models is still pending breakthroughs [9] - The domestic computing power supply chain is gradually taking shape, driven by revenue growth from domestic computing power manufacturers like Cambrian. The acceleration of multimodal large model applications is expected to lead to commercial implementation in the video sector [9] - The market perceives that large-scale model implementation still faces challenges, but advancements like Sora 2.0 are expected to break through physical simulation barriers, potentially generating commercial value in video generation [10]