Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Zoomlion is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese engineering machinery sector, with growth potential driven by its diversified focus on engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in non-excavator segments, and is advancing its globalization strategy through overseas direct sales and localized production [1][11] - The company is also focusing on low-valuation humanoid robots, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][11] Industry and Company Analysis Engineering Machinery Sector - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 213.5 billion in 2024 and USD 296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - Domestic recovery in excavators is expected to drive demand for non-excavator machinery, supported by infrastructure and municipal needs [2][3] - The company has a significant market share in various segments, including nearly 50% in the 1000-ton and above crawler crane market [12][24] Agricultural Machinery - The global agricultural machinery market is expected to reach approximately RMB 1.5 trillion in 2024, with China contributing around RMB 300 billion [5] - Emerging markets and green technology are identified as key growth drivers for agricultural machinery [5][25] Mining Machinery - The global mining machinery market is projected to grow from USD 133.1 billion in 2025 to USD 229.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6% [6] - The company is focusing on green, large-scale, and intelligent mining machinery, with significant growth in sales and market penetration [13][26] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 49 billion, 64 billion, and 81 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 26% [20] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15, 12, and 9 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [20] Globalization and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to issue up to RMB 6 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support its globalization strategy, with 50% of the funds allocated to overseas production and technology development [14][36] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 74% for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - TMTG plans to start construction of the world's largest commercial fusion power plant in 2026, aiming to accelerate the deployment of fusion energy to support AI development [1] - The initial construction will involve a 50MW fusion power plant, with a long-term goal of achieving a power supply capacity of 350-500MW, targeting first power generation by 2031 [1] - The construction plan marks the first major action following the merger between TMTG and TAE Technologies, which is valued at $6 billion and expected to complete by mid-2026 [1] - The fusion energy sector is experiencing significant momentum, with strong policy support, ongoing advancements in technology, and increasing capital investment [2][3] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Fusion energy has been explicitly included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and is positioned as a core future industry, with unprecedented policy support [2] Industry Progress - Steady progress in the construction of fusion devices is noted, with breakthroughs in various technical paths, including the successful completion of key plasma control coil manufacturing for the JT-60SA and advancements in Tokamak Energy's current capabilities [2] - Other projects, such as the quasi-symmetric stellarator in Chengdu, are on track for completion by 2027, and significant milestones have been achieved in neutral beam heating technology [2] Capital Investment - Recent funding rounds indicate strong investor interest, with Helical Fusion securing $38 million in A-round financing and other startups in the fusion sector also raising significant capital [3] Investment Recommendations - Key midstream equipment companies to focus on include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Xuguang Electronics, and others [4] - Upstream material companies such as Yongding Co., Western Superconducting, and Jingda Co. are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][8] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's high visibility in performance and simultaneous growth in volume and price, making it a rare investment opportunity in the consumer goods sector. The valuation is considered attractive, and there is potential for earnings to exceed expectations in 2026 due to continuous innovation in core models [1][4]. Industry Overview - The private jet industry is experiencing steady growth, with high-end models (jets) growing at a faster rate. Post-pandemic, high-net-worth individuals prefer private travel for privacy, and tariff fluctuations have led to a decline in competitors' market share. The supply side continues to introduce competitive new models, driving order growth [2]. Company Analysis - The company is a leading player in the piston private aircraft sector, rapidly increasing its market share through strong product quality and customer service. The safety and customization of products create significant competitive barriers. The launch of the SR series G7+ in 2025 has led to a rapid increase in orders, and a new model is expected in 2026, which could further boost orders and establish a foundation for high earnings growth [3][4]. Key Expectations - The company has a rich pipeline of new products, with expectations for significant order growth following the 2026 product launch. The current long delivery cycle suggests that order growth could exceed expectations, contributing to higher delivery volumes in 2026-2027. The service business is also showing strong growth, with a revenue increase of 24% in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential for higher profitability and earnings contributions [4][6]. Potential Catalysts - Key catalysts for the company include the anticipated market recovery in March 2026 based on transaction volume and market capitalization, the launch of new products in 2026, and quarterly delivery data released by GAMA [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a decrease in coking coal supply, indicating a potential for price recovery due to low inventory levels and reduced supply [6][25] - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 6.26% compared to the index's 2.79% rise, marking a 3.47 percentage point advantage [2] - The report suggests that the current policy environment is balancing between "checking overproduction and ensuring supply," which may lead to stronger policy support as coal prices decline [6][25] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.05 million tons for the week ending January 8, 2026, a week-on-week increase of 17.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [2] - Demand: The power and chemical industries showed mixed results, with coal consumption in the power sector decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, while the chemical sector increased by 9.2% [2][23] - Inventory: Total coal inventory (including port storage) stood at 23.48 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but down 11% year-on-year [2][23] Price Summary - Coking coal prices at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at Jing-Tang Port at 1,650 CNY/ton, down 2.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes that the futures settlement price for coking coal increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1,188 CNY/ton, indicating market volatility [4][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and resilient coking coal companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][25] - Notable companies in thermal coal include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, while coking coal companies include Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [6][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - China has submitted applications for over 203,000 satellites, indicating a significant expansion of satellite operation entities [1] - The global competition for space resources is accelerating, with China's new satellite applications aimed at securing frequency and orbital resources [3] - SpaceX has been approved to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the total approved satellites to 15,000, enhancing network coverage both domestically and internationally [2] Summary by Sections Satellite Applications - In the last week of 2025, China reported multiple satellite constellation plans to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), totaling 203,000 satellites [1] - The applications cover 14 satellite constellations and involve various operators, including traditional telecom companies and commercial space enterprises [1] Global Competition - The limited capacity for low Earth orbit satellites and the requirement for prior frequency resource applications are intensifying global competition in the space sector [3] - The core objective of China's new satellite applications is to secure frequency and orbital resources, further solidifying the domestic commercial space industry [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the rocket and satellite sectors, including: - Rocket sector: Hangyang Co., Srey New Materials, Aerospace Power, and others [4] - Satellite sector: China Satellite, Maiwei Co., Zhenyou Technology, and others [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the equity bottom is continuing to recover, suggesting a positive outlook for the steel industry [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 4,120, with a weekly increase of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,752, with a weekly increase of 3.5% and a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,280 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 108 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 864,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 389,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,280,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 750,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach 195,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the recovery in demand for steel products, indicating a positive trend in the market [8][10]

Group 1 - The core contradiction in the convertible bond market has shifted from long-term "valuation cost-effectiveness" to short-term "capital and sentiment game," with liquidity improvement being the main theme of the current market [1][2] - The recent spring rally has led to a strong performance in the convertible bond market, with the convertible bond small-cap index rising by 5.47%, outperforming the large-cap index which increased by 2.01% [1][10] - The healthcare (+6.03%), information technology (+5.61%), and energy (+4.58%) sectors have shown strong performance, while financials (+1.65%) and consumer staples (+2.60%) have lagged [1][10] Group 2 - The liquidity style has performed best in the past week, with strong convertible bonds yielding an average return of +4.57%, significantly higher than other styles [2][11] - The current market environment favors high liquidity securities, which attract new capital and create a positive feedback loop of liquidity premium leading to capital inflow [2][10] - Investors are advised to shift from a defensive strategy focused on "double low" value to a more aggressive trading mindset, capitalizing on market sentiment and capital flow [3][16] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of momentum and volatility factors in capturing trending market conditions, suggesting that investors should select securities with strong trends and high price elasticity [15][16] - The trading strategy should leverage the T+0 trading mechanism of convertible bonds, allowing for flexible adjustments during sector rotations and maximizing trading gains from liquidity premiums [3][16] - The report highlights the need for investors to adapt their portfolio construction to align with market trends and ensure that the combination of securities reflects the prevailing market sentiment [3][16]

Core Insights - The report establishes a P (pring) P (policy) T (timing) asset allocation framework that connects macroeconomic fundamentals, policy frameworks, and asset price movements, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and their impact on asset prices [1]. Group 1: Adapting the Pring Clock to China - The Pring Clock identifies a sequential relationship between turning points in equity, fixed income, and commodity markets, emphasizing the gradual transition of asset classes through different economic phases [8][11]. - The six stages of the Pring Clock are: 1. Only bond market bull 2. Bull markets in bonds and equities 3. Bull markets in bonds, equities, and commodities 4. Bear market in bonds while equities and commodities remain bullish 5. Only commodity market bull 6. No market is bullish [12][14]. Group 2: Asset Allocation in Domestic Markets - The report outlines the industry rotation patterns in both China and the US, highlighting the transition from interest-sensitive and defensive sectors in early economic cycles to consumer discretionary, healthcare, and technology sectors in mid-cycles, and finally to industrial, materials, and energy sectors in late cycles [18]. - Due to restrictions on commodity futures trading for institutional investors in China, the report suggests using leading stocks in raw materials and energy as substitutes for commodities in asset allocation [22]. Group 3: Integrating Policy Frameworks into Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes the necessity of incorporating a policy framework into the existing asset allocation system, where macroeconomic fundamentals dictate policy variables, which in turn influence asset price movements [26]. - The "Four-Tier" framework is proposed to understand future policy directions, focusing on US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [29]. Group 4: Four-Tier Policy Framework - The report introduces the construction of four indices: US-China Game Index, Social Stability Index, Structural Transformation Index, and Economic Growth Index, each assigned different weights based on their importance [32]. - The US-China Game Index aims to quantify the interactions between the two countries across various dimensions, including international influence, economic strength, high-tech competitiveness, and financial market performance [35][37]. - The Social Stability Index is constructed from components such as income expectations, employment conditions, actual wealth, and extreme social events, reflecting its volatility and impact on overall policy indices [39]. - The Structural Transformation Index focuses on transitioning from real estate dependency to manufacturing, emphasizing the development of "new productive forces" driven by technological innovation [42]. - The Economic Growth Index is designed to track economic growth intensity from a supply-side perspective, ensuring that selected indicators effectively reflect macroeconomic trends [44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The coal machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical bottoming, with multiple drivers such as replacement, automation, and export opportunities expected to benefit the leading state-owned enterprises [1] - The company has a comprehensive industry chain layout, with notable performance in safety and automation [2] - The company reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 6.9% decline in revenue [2] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 27.2%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 4.4 percentage points to 17.2% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year [2][10] - The company’s operating income for 2025 is projected to be 30.6 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 10% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 9.3X, 8.6X, and 7.7X for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Industry Overview - The coal machinery industry is seeing increased concentration, with leading state-owned enterprises poised to benefit from this trend [1] - The demand for coal machinery is driven by factors such as replacement needs, automation, and the trend of consolidating smaller mines into larger operations [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the construction of negative duration portfolios for public bond funds is influenced by three main factors: "allowance in fund contract investment scope," "regulatory framework," and "trading convenience" [3][13][28] - It identifies government bond futures as the most commonly used and convenient tool for achieving negative duration in the current market [3][28] - The anticipated steepening of the Chinese bond yield curve in 2026, characterized by "stable short-end and rising long-end rates," suggests that negative duration funds should be considered for investment strategies [1][6] Group 1: Real-World Significance of Negative Duration Strategy - The current domestic bond market is experiencing a phase of differentiated interest rate structures and increased volatility, presenting challenges for traditional bond investment strategies [2][11] - The negative duration strategy, which combines "high liquidity short-term asset allocation with interest rate derivatives hedging," can help stabilize net asset values during rising interest rate phases [2][12] - This strategy focuses on short-term high liquidity assets, mitigating the liquidity risks associated with long-duration assets, and serves as a reserve strategy to enhance overall risk resilience [2][12] Group 2: Considerations for Constructing Negative Duration Portfolios - The report outlines three key considerations for public bond funds using derivatives to construct negative duration portfolios: fund contract investment scope, regulatory framework, and trading convenience [3][13] - Fund contracts must explicitly include terms like "government bond futures" and "credit derivatives" to allow for their use; otherwise, funds are restricted from employing these derivatives [14] - Regulatory documents specifically govern public funds' participation in government bond futures, while there are no direct regulatory constraints for other derivatives like interest rate swaps [17][21] Group 3: Insights from Overseas Negative Duration Funds - The report references two notable negative duration funds in the U.S.: AGND and HYND, which were designed to perform well during rising interest rate environments [4][35] - AGND targets a duration of -5 years and employs a strategy of long positions in a broad bond index while shorting various maturities of U.S. Treasuries [4][29] - HYND, on the other hand, focuses on high-yield bonds with a target duration of -7 years, combining short positions in government bond futures with long positions in short-duration high-yield bonds [35][44] Group 4: Development Opportunities for Negative Duration Public Bond Funds in China - The potential audience for negative duration public bond funds in China includes institutional investors such as bank wealth management products and insurance asset management products that require interest rate hedging [6][45] - The report recommends a high-yield negative duration strategy for 2026, suggesting long positions in AA+ credit bonds with maturities of 2 years or less, while shorting ultra-long bonds to capitalize on the anticipated steepening of the yield curve [6][46]