Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the new game "Delta Operation" will exceed market expectations, and that features like Video Accounts and Search will continue to drive Tencent's advertising business to achieve growth above the industry average [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights that Tencent's gaming and advertising businesses are perceived to be in a mature phase, with challenges in achieving growth above the industry average due to a high base in 2024. However, the new game "Delta Operation" is expected to outperform market expectations due to its established game genre and social attributes, which enhance player engagement [2][3] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Tencent's core competitive advantage lies in its social traffic entry points and its leading understanding of the gaming industry. WeChat has nearly 1.411 billion monthly active users as of the first half of 2025, serving as a primary social entry point in China [3] Recent Market Trends - The report reviews Tencent's recent market performance, noting that from March 2024 to the present, the company has benefited from macroeconomic conditions, liquidity easing, and the recovery of game licenses, leading to revenue growth from key titles [4] Comparison with Overseas Leaders - Tencent's valuation is compared with overseas gaming companies, indicating that its current P/E ratio is lower than that of major U.S. gaming firms and internet advertising platforms like Meta and Google [5] AI Industry Trends - Tencent is actively investing in AI to enhance advertising precision and efficiency. The report notes that AI applications in gaming and advertising are expected to drive further growth [6][10] Performance Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 749.96 billion, 834.45 billion, and 924.65 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 262.07 billion, 293.55 billion, and 323.79 billion yuan respectively. The target price for 2026 is set at HK$793.08 per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% [12][13]

Group 1: Economic Signals from Euro and Japan - Recent attempts to constrain fiscal discipline in Europe and Japan have failed, leading to weakened international capital confidence in these regions[1] - Long-term bond yields in France rose from 4.16% on August 1 to 4.45% on September 1, a widening of 10 basis points compared to the 10-year bond[2] - In the UK, 30-year bond yields increased from 5.35% to 5.64%, widening by 9 basis points, due to economic slowdown and increased public spending[2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Resilience - Despite weak employment data, the U.S. economy may be stronger than expected, with private non-residential investment contributing 30.4% to Q2 GDP growth[8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, but the labor market has not shown signs of recession, with the Labor Market Stress Index (LMSI) at 8, well below the 30 threshold indicating recession risk[9] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic, with inflation risks still present and economic resilience expected to continue[10] Group 3: Currency and Investment Outlook - The U.S. dollar and Nasdaq are expected to perform well, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, indicating a dual bullish trend for both currencies[13] - International capital's confidence in Europe and Japan has weakened due to unfavorable trade negotiations, reinforcing the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism[4] - The U.S. is positioned to benefit from foreign investment commitments of $600 billion and $550 billion from Europe and Japan, respectively, enhancing economic growth prospects[7]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 09 月 11 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商电子 王凌涛/沈钱】四会富仕（300852）公司深度：工控复苏叠加机器人全新增量，海内外扩产落定增长 渐现雏形——20250910 重要点评 浙商早报 1 市场总览 1、大势 9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创 业板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1.01%。 【浙商电新 邱世梁/黄华栋】电池 行业深度：固态中试线加速落地，各材料环节全面升级——20250910 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：9 月 10 日上证指数上涨 0.13%，沪深 300 上涨 0.21%，科创 50 上涨 1.09%，中证 1000 上涨 0.06%，创业 板指上涨 1.27%，恒生指数上涨 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in the industry, marking a turning point for allocation strategies [6] - The financial data and order trends suggest that the CXO sector has reached a fundamental turning point and is in a phase of continuous recovery [63] Summary by Sections Stock Price Review - Domestic performance shows a significant increase in the medical research outsourcing index, which rose by 60.41% from December 31, 2024, to September 4, 2025, outperforming the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index by 36.15 percentage points [4] - Internationally, there is a general upward revision of performance forecasts, with signs of demand recovery. Medpace showed the largest upward adjustment in its 2025 guidance [4][17] Financial Analysis - Growth: The year-over-year (YOY) revenue trend is improving, with the average YOY revenue growth for CXO companies reaching 8.2% in Q1 2025 and 11.6% in Q2 2025 [26] - Profitability: The average gross margin in Q2 2025 was 32.45%, showing a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points YOY. Some companies like Medpace and Boten Co. saw significant improvements in their margins [33] - Operational Efficiency: Inventory turnover improved from 1.56 in H1 2024 to 1.81 in H1 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency driven by increased capacity utilization [35] Thoughts and Outlook - PE/VC financing in the healthcare sector has stabilized at a low point, with a slight decline in absolute values for Q2 2025 compared to previous quarters, but ongoing improvements in global IPOs and business development transactions are expected to drive demand recovery [47] - IPO financing in the A-share and US markets has stabilized, while Hong Kong's market has seen a significant rebound, with HK IPO amounts reaching 20.7 billion HKD in 2025 [52] - The construction of new projects remains high, indicating optimistic expectations for capacity expansion among CXO companies, with a focus on new business areas such as ADCs and oligonucleotides [56] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investing in CDMO opportunities driven by the continued realization of commercial orders for small and large molecules, as well as clinical CRO opportunities supported by domestic innovation drug policies [63] - Key companies to watch include WuXi AppTec, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others in the small molecule and large molecule CDMO sectors [63]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 93.35% and a 35.2% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the continued expansion in the shipbuilding industry, increased sales in the diesel engine segment, and effective cost control measures [1][3] - The company has a strong order book, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 339.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.42% [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 27.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 919 million yuan, up 93.35% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 4.65 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, with a gross margin of approximately 16.49% [3] - The revenue breakdown by business segments shows that the diesel power segment generated 139.68 billion yuan, a 27.25% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue [2] Market Outlook - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with demand for various ship types increasing, which is expected to improve the profitability of shipyards [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tight supply-demand relationship in the ship engine market, as it is a leading player in the industry [10] - The after-market service for diesel engines presents a significant growth opportunity, with the company expanding its global service network [10][11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 600 billion yuan, 681 billion yuan, and 757 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 21.4 billion yuan, 30.1 billion yuan, and 37.7 billion yuan for the same years, with a CAGR of 39% [12] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 23, 16, and 13, respectively [12]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic scoring to time the allocation between the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index and the Wind All A Index, leveraging the dominant role of copper and other industrial metals in the nonferrous metals sector[19][20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The macroeconomic score for copper is calculated based on global economic and inflationary factors - Allocation Rule: - If the macro score > 0, allocate to the CSI SW Nonferrous Metals Index - Otherwise, allocate to the Wind All A Index - Backtesting Period: March 2009 to September 2025 - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is based on historical macroeconomic data[19][20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong timing ability, capturing the upward trends in the nonferrous metals sector, except during 2012-2013 when the sector underperformed despite a bullish signal[20] 2. Model Name: Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy dynamically allocates weights to industries based on their economic cycle signals (upward, flat, or downward) and crowding levels, with flat-cycle industries receiving half the weight of upward-cycle industries[35] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify industries with upward or flat economic cycle signals - Exclude industries with high crowding levels - Assign weights: - Upward-cycle industries: Full weight - Flat-cycle industries: Half weight - Monthly updates based on the latest signals[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy underperformed its benchmarks in the most recent month, suggesting potential limitations in capturing short-term market dynamics[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing Model for Nonferrous Metals - **Excess Return**: 245% relative to the Wind All A Index during the backtesting period (March 2009 - September 2025)[20] 2. Comprehensive Allocation Strategy - **1-Month Return**: 4.6% - **Excess Return vs. Equal-Weighted Index**: -5.7% - **Excess Return vs. CSI 800**: -3.9%[35][39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the economic and inflationary environment to assess the attractiveness of copper as a leading indicator for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Historical macroeconomic data is used to calculate a score for copper - The score ranges from negative to positive, reflecting unfavorable to favorable conditions[21] - Formula: Not explicitly provided, but the scoring system is derived from macroeconomic indicators[21] 2. Factor Name: Sector Crowding Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the crowding level in various sectors to identify potential risks of over-concentration[32][34] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the crowding level for each sector based on historical trading data - Identify sectors exceeding the 95% warning threshold[32][34] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macroeconomic Score for Copper - **Latest Score**: 4, indicating a historically high level of attractiveness for the nonferrous metals sector[19][21] 2. Sector Crowding Indicator - **Sectors Above 95% Threshold**: Nonferrous Metals, Electronics, Communication, Machinery, Comprehensive, Beauty & Personal Care, Defense, and Pharmaceuticals[32][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic robotics firm, with an upward turning point in its motion control business. The acquisition by Haier is expected to accelerate the implementation of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Exceeding Expectations - The market perceives the company's growth and profitability as weak. However, the company is a leader in control technology with strong product iteration capabilities. It ranks second globally in elevator controllers and fourth in domestic SCARA industrial robot shipments. The company has pioneered domestic replacements in automation products and achieved integration in robot drive control [2] - Haier's acquisition is expected to benefit the company as it continues to push for embodied intelligence. Haier has established a robotics division, initiated a 10 billion yuan investment fund for embodied intelligence, formed an innovation alliance, and launched household robots [2][31] - The company plans to launch an embodied intelligent welding solution in September 2025 and an intelligent controller by the end of 2025, with a focus on humanoid robots [3][37] 2. Management and Profitability Improvement - Haier's shareholding and voting rights in the company are expected to increase significantly, potentially raising its stake from 10% to 26.83% and voting rights from 29.24% to 42.47% after a planned capital increase [4][24] - Key management positions are held by members from Haier, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through Haier's effective management model [5][29] 3. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.13 billion yuan, 0.84 billion yuan, and 1.90 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround and growth rates of 567% and 128% respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period is estimated at approximately 290% [11] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 949, 142, and 62 for the years 2025 to 2027 [11] 4. Revenue and Profit Structure - The company has three main business segments: elevator control, robot control, and general control and drive. In 2024, the revenue from these segments is expected to be 6.6 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively [14] - The gross margin for the elevator control segment is relatively high, with improvements noted in the margins for general control and robot segments [22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [2] Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are expected to achieve a technological breakthrough in electrolyte technology by 2027 and may reach industrialization by 2030, with sulfide solid-state batteries being the most emphasized route domestically and internationally [3][24] - The current focus is on sulfide electrolytes, while composite electrolytes are anticipated to be the best long-term solution [4][33] - High-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon anodes are expected to dominate in the short term, with lithium-rich manganese-based and lithium metal anodes being the long-term goals [5][56] - Nickel-coated or nickel-based current collectors are being developed to address corrosion issues, while porous copper foils are being explored for their lightweight and elastic properties [6] - Other materials such as single-walled carbon nanotubes and UV adhesives are also gaining attention for their potential in solid-state battery applications [7] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Overview - Solid-state batteries are considered the ultimate form of lithium batteries, balancing safety and energy density [16][18] - The timeline for achieving significant milestones includes 200-300 Wh/kg energy density by 2027 and 400 Wh/kg by 2030 [19][24] Electrolytes - Sulfide electrolytes are currently the focus, with challenges in cost reduction and production scalability [4][39] - The development of halide electrolytes is also being pursued to enhance electrochemical stability and compatibility with high-voltage cathodes [44] Cathode Materials - High-nickel ternary materials are expected to be the primary choice for solid-state batteries, with ongoing modifications to improve performance [45][50] - Lithium-rich manganese-based materials are being developed to enhance energy density and reduce costs [55] Anode Materials - CVD silicon-carbon anodes are emerging as a leading option due to their performance and cost advantages, with significant growth expected in the coming years [61] - Lithium metal anodes are viewed as the ultimate solution, with ongoing research to address associated challenges [64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in various material segments, including sulfide electrolytes, high-nickel ternary cathodes, CVD silicon-carbon anodes, and nickel-based current collectors [8]

Inflation Data Summary - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and market expectations of -0.2%[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0%, down from 0.4% in July, primarily due to falling food prices[2] - August PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from -3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%)[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase from the previous month[3] - Industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 4% year-on-year, showing a minor improvement from -4.5% in July[7] Market Outlook - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by potential easing in US-China trade relations and risk mitigation from "stabilizing" funds[1] - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market with alternating low-value dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]

Market Overview - On September 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 2.38%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.23%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.19% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on September 9 were real estate (+1.64%), comprehensive (+0.94%), banking (+0.83%), non-ferrous metals (+0.75%), and light industry manufacturing (+0.53%). The worst-performing sectors included electronics (-2.7%), computers (-2.07%), communications (-1.91%), pharmaceutical biology (-1.91%), and national defense and military industry (-1.9%) [4][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on September 9 was 21,521 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 10.231 billion Hong Kong dollars [6] Company Recommendation - The report recommends Shandong Weida (002026) as a leading player in electric tool accessories, highlighting its multi-business expansion that opens up growth opportunities. The company has ample cash reserves to support long-term development [7] - The expected revenue for Shandong Weida from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 2,480 million yuan, 2,719 million yuan, and 2,958 million yuan, with revenue growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 332 million yuan, 367 million yuan, and 402 million yuan, with net profit growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 0.75 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 17, and 15 times [7] Strategic Insights - The report discusses the recovery of active equity fund allocations, with ETF funds acting as market stabilizers. It notes that individual investors are increasingly trend-driven, and foreign capital activity has risen, benefiting quantitative funds [8][9] - It is anticipated that more active equity incremental funds will enter the market, driven by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and potential improvements in the fundamental economy [9] - The restaurant sector is identified as having a generally low valuation, presenting a rare investment opportunity. The report suggests that since July, more leading brands have shown signs of recovery, indicating that it is a good time to invest [10]