森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2024 年稳健增长，持续拓店提升渠道能力 消费品/轻工纺服 24 年公司营收同比+7.06%，归母净利润+1.42%。童装业务引领增长，线上线 下各渠道全面发展。渠道拓展加速，渠道能力提升，使得期间费用率上升对净 利率有所拖累。预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 12.2 亿元、13.6 亿元、15.0 亿元，同比增长 7%、11%、11%。当前市值对应 25PE16X、26PE14X，维持 强烈推荐评级。 ❑ 2024 年稳健增长，Q4 增长提速。 1）2024 年：公司营收 146.26 亿元，同比+7.06%；归母净利润 11.37 亿元， 同比+1.42%；扣非净利润 10.84 亿元，同比+6.16%。公司拟派发现金股利 0.35 元/股，对应 2024 全年分红率 82.9%。 2）24Q4：公司营收 52.27 亿元，同比+9.76%；归母净利润 3.82 亿元，同比 +32.07%；扣非净利润 3.49 亿元，同比+42.45%。 ❑ 各渠道全面增长，童装业务更为亮眼。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：7.24 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.03 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 119.5% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The company has set a shareholder return plan for the next three years, prioritizing cash dividends, with a commitment to distribute at least 45% of the cumulative distributable profits over the three years [7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a total revenue of 9.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.76 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 119% increase compared to the previous year [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.94 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 24.1 [3][14]. Production and Sales - The company anticipates gold production and sales of 15.16 tons and 15.22 tons respectively in 2024, with year-on-year increases of 5.6% and 4.9% [1][7]. - Domestic gold production is expected to be 3.91 tons in 2024, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, while overseas production is projected at 11.25 tons, a 2.0% increase [1][7]. Cost Management - The overall sales cost for gold in 2024 is projected to be 278 yuan per gram, a decrease of 2 yuan per gram year-on-year [7]. - The sales cost for domestic gold mines is expected to be 157 yuan per gram, an increase of 4 yuan per gram year-on-year [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 14.4 for 2025, decreasing to 11.7 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][14]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 25.1% in 2024, increasing to 31.6% in 2025 [14].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 1 日 ETF 重回净流入，四季度个人投资者增持 ETF 及联接基金 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0401） ETF 基金 2024 年年报披露完毕，以下三个变化值得关注：（1）个人投资者与 汇金贡献主要增量、（2）个人投资者通过联接基金加速入市、（3）个人投资 者持有行业、主题类 ETF 占比较高。展望 4 月，我们认为在业绩披露期效应及 关税冲击影响下，大盘价值胜率更高，对应的指数则是 300 质量。 策略研究 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与流 动性指数——A 股市流动性研究之 四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股票 市场 SCP 范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《偏股基金发行规模提升，增量 资金或由融资转为 ETF——金融市 场流动性与监管动态周报(0325)》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 135.83↓ | | ETF 净申购 | 20.36↑ | | 融资净 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 龙湖集团（00960.HK） 24 年业绩仍受开发拖累，25 年下半年公开市场债务压 力缓解进程或是关注点 24 年收入及利润下滑主要受开发业务拖累，运营及服务业务贡献毛利润占比达 70%且稳健增长；开发业务方面，受市场下行及公开债务偿付压力影响，公司 销售及拿地均承压；运营及服务业务方面，四大非开发业务航道稳健增长，25 年预计开业购物中心 11 座，与去年持平；债务方面，债务规模有序压降，判断 25 年或为公司有息负债（含公开债务及境外银团贷款等）到期高峰期，经营性 贷款稳增或为其偿付提供保障，26 年后公司经营及服务业务利润或足以应对剩 余每年公开市场债务偿付，关注公司 25 年下半年公开市场债务压力缓解进程。 考虑到 25 年底公司资金压力或显著缓释，可支配自由现金流或边际回升，可关 注在此变化下公司投资循环增强以及估值提振的可能，预计 25E/26E/27E EPS 分别为 0.96/1.05/1.14 元/股（同比分别-37%/+9%/+9%），当前股价对应 PE 分别为 9.5/8.7/8.0，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 | 会计年度 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 1 日 4 月 ETF 有望重回净申购，大盘价值胜率更高 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202504） 进入 4 月，4 月 2 日对等关税政策落地后到 4 月上旬，市场风险偏好可能有短 暂的改善窗口，市场或小幅反弹；但 4 月中旬到下旬一季报集中披露期，市场 风险偏好整体下降，融资资金或加速流出；再加上美国 3 月通胀数据可能再度 造成扰动，市场防御为主，大盘价值风格占优。到 4 月政治局会议召开前后， 随着市场开始博弈政策预期，风险偏好回升，小盘成长、科技风格可能在月末逐 渐回归。月度维度，对应指数推荐上证 50、300 红利和 300 材料。 定期报告 相关报告 《风格阶段性回归均衡，先成长后价 值——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报 （202503）》 《融资资金回流在望，小盘成长风格 占优——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月 报（202502）》 《政策力度空前改善市场风偏，大盘 成长风格有望回归——A 股流动性 与风格跟踪月报（202410）》 《美联储降息预期升温，聚焦高质量 龙头风格——A 股流动性与风格跟 踪月报（202409）》 《股权风险溢价回升，大 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.86 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 25.9 [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the increase in the proportion of recurring business profits supports the stability of the company's performance and shareholder returns. The operational real estate business, primarily focused on shopping centers, has sustainable growth potential both internally and externally. The gross profit margin of the development and sales business may gradually stabilize, and the ongoing transformation towards asset management is viewed positively. The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 3.30, CNY 3.50, and CNY 3.89 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8%, +6%, and +11% [1][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of CNY 278.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18% to CNY 25.58 billion, primarily due to a decline in gross profit margins from development sales [2][12]. - The company’s core net profit for 2024 is projected to be CNY 25.4 billion, reflecting a 9% decline year-on-year. The revenue breakdown shows that the development sales business, operational real estate business, light asset management business, and ecosystem factor business generated revenues of CNY 237.15 billion, CNY 23.3 billion, CNY 12.13 billion, and CNY 6.22 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 5%, 14%, and 1% [2][10]. - The overall gross profit margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.6%, with the development sales business gross margin dropping by 3.9 percentage points to 16.8%. In contrast, the operational real estate business gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70% [2][10]. Business Segment Insights - The shopping center segment opened 16 new centers in 2024, with retail sales and rental income continuing to grow. The company plans to maintain a stable opening pace over the next four years, which is expected to support rental income growth [8][10]. - The office rental income decreased by 9% to CNY 1.9 billion, with an occupancy rate dropping by 7 percentage points to 75% [9]. - Hotel revenue also saw a decline of 11% to CNY 2.1 billion, with a slight increase in occupancy rate to 64% [9]. Asset Management and Financial Health - The company’s asset management scale reached CNY 462.1 billion, an 8% increase year-on-year, with shopping centers contributing CNY 297.9 billion to this total [11][12]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with a weighted average financing cost of 3.11%, a decrease of 45 basis points year-on-year. The net interest-bearing debt ratio stands at 31.9% [12][12]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The core net profit distribution rate is maintained at 37%, with a proposed final dividend of CNY 1.119 per share, resulting in an estimated dividend yield of approximately 5.5% based on the report's release date closing price [12][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances [3]. Core Views - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by 8% to reach 92.7 billion yuan and net profit expected to increase by 18% to 3.35 billion yuan, surpassing market forecasts [1][2]. - The company has achieved a dividend payout of 1.7 billion yuan, representing a 51% payout ratio and a dividend yield of 4.3% [1]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for the company, particularly driven by government-supported consumption initiatives and the expected improvement in performance through 2025 [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 85.6 billion yuan, with projections of 92.7 billion yuan for 2024, 101.5 billion yuan for 2025, and continuing growth through 2027 [2][13]. - The company's net profit for 2023 is 2.84 billion yuan, with forecasts of 3.35 billion yuan for 2024, 3.75 billion yuan for 2025, and 4.97 billion yuan for 2027 [2][13]. - The report indicates a PE ratio of 14.8 for 2023, decreasing to 12.5 for 2024, and further down to 8.4 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation [14]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain strong, with values of 21.7% for 2023 and 23.3% for 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - In 2024, the HVAC segment is expected to decline by 6%, while home air conditioning is projected to grow by 19%, with a notable improvement in net profit margin [7]. - The report highlights a 36% increase in overseas appliance revenue, with significant growth in regions such as Europe (35%) and the Americas (46.5%) [7]. - The overall gross margin is expected to slightly decrease by 0.56 percentage points, attributed to faster growth in overseas sales compared to domestic demand [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong outlook for the company, with expected net profits of 3.8 billion yuan in 2025, 4.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 5 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 12% to 15% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 10.506 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 461 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 442 million in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 28.89%, 27.45%, and 42.92% respectively [1] - The company's motorcycle engine business saw sales of 2.9852 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.44%, with revenue of 3.824 billion, up 13.68% [2] - The acquisition of Longxin General Power Co., Ltd. was completed, making the company the controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance its market position [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in general power machinery and motorcycle engines in China, with significant growth potential in the aviation engine sector due to the development of the low-altitude economy [11] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 3.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million, marking a return to profitability [1] - The general power machinery and terminal products sales totaled 4.8345 million units, up 37.34%, with total revenue of 5.226 billion, a 35.33% increase [11] - The aviation power business revenue grew by 71.67% to 160 million, driven by increasing order demand and market share [11][9] Strategic Developments - The company has made significant advancements in its new energy business, including innovations in electric drive systems and the establishment of a hydrogen supply station [11] - Strategic partnerships have been formed to enhance production capabilities and digital transformation in manufacturing [11] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 641 million, 762 million, and 871 million in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39.3, 33.1, and 28.9 [10][11]

中无人机（688297.SH） 24 年业绩有所承压，25 年有望大幅恢复 中游制造/军工 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 2024 年，公司实现营收 6.85 亿元（同比-74.28%），主要是受市场需求变动、 国内市场节奏调整及重点客户采购计划延后等影响，交付产品数量较上年减少， 导致营业收入较上年同期大幅下降；实现归母净利润-5391.61 万元（同比 -117.82%）；扣非归母净利润-6253.93 万元（同比-121.88%）。 "高中低"搭配、"大中小"融合的全场景系列谱系。从作战效能上来看， 在实战环境下，"翼龙"、"云影"无人机已经实现了不同机型之间的混合 编组和灵活搭配，具备了"大中小""高中低"的作战体系，实现了对不同 强度、不同类型对抗的套餐式供给。通过体系化作战方式，达到"1 + 1 大于 2"的协同效应，从而提升了整体的作战效能。 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：39.11 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 675 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 272 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 26.4 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 中航西飞（000768.SZ） 24 年业绩实现稳定增长，军民交付任务按期完成 中游制造/军工 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 432.16 亿元（同比+7.23%），实现归母净利润 10.23 亿元（同比+18.87%）；实现扣非净利润 9.21 亿元（同比+13.78%）。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：23.65 元 1、《中航西飞（000768）—积极布局 低空经济，HH 系列签署 50 套意向订 单》2024-11-25 2、《中航西飞（000768）—24Q3 利 润端同比高增，毛利率同环比提升显 著》2024-10-31 3、《中航西飞（000768）—上半年营 收稳步增长，净利率同比有所提升》 2024-08-27 王超 S1090514080007 wangchao18@cmschina.com.cn 战泳壮 研究助理 zhanyongzhuang@cmschina.com. cn ❑ 24 年业绩实现稳定增长，军民交付任务按期完成。2024 年，公司实现营业收 入 432.16 亿元（同比+7.23%），实现归 ...