Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for India's economy, with an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast for CY25 to 6.6% year-over-year, reflecting strong investment growth driven by public capital expenditure [6][11]. Core Insights - India's real GDP growth surged to 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, up from 6.4% in Q4 CY24, surpassing consensus expectations [3][6]. - The growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) was recorded at 6.8% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, an increase from 6.5% in the previous quarter [2][6]. - Strong investment growth was noted, particularly in public capital expenditure, which exceeded revised estimates by 0.1% of GDP for FY25 [6][7]. - The agricultural sector showed growth of 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing and services sectors also demonstrated robust performance [6][7]. - Despite a contraction in private consumption expenditure growth, fixed investment growth rose sharply to 9.4% year-over-year, aided by back-loaded public capex [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth in Q1 CY25 was 7.4% year-over-year, with a sequential increase of 2.1% [2][3]. - Nominal GDP growth reached 10.8% year-over-year, up from 10.3% in Q4 CY24 [2][5]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector grew by 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing growth hit a three-quarter high of 4.8% [6][7]. - Services growth remained strong at 7.3% year-over-year, primarily driven by financial services and real estate [6][7]. Investment Trends - Central government public capex in March increased by 68% year-over-year, significantly contributing to GDP growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued strong rural consumption, although policy uncertainty may dampen future investment growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer goods trade-in program in China Core Insights - China's real GDP growth is projected to be above 5% year-over-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger-than-expected exports and the consumer goods trade-in program [3][4] - The trade-in program, launched in April 2024, has significantly boosted retail sales, with January-April 2025 retail sales averaging 2.5% above the pre-trade-in program trend [3][5][6] - The program's effectiveness is attributed to expanded product coverage and increased subsidies, with the National Development and Reform Commission allocating RMB 300 billion for 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Impact of Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has led to a year-over-year growth of headline retail sales improving to 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024 [6] - The expansion of eligible goods categories, including mobile phones and smart home devices, has contributed to the sales boost [8][11] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a large pool of potential trade-in demand for old autos and home appliances, with an estimated RMB 1.7 trillion worth of appliances aged over 8 years [20][23] - However, monthly auto trade-in applications have shown signs of slowing, indicating potential challenges in sustaining the program's momentum [24][30] Future Consumption Growth Areas - The report highlights a shift in policy focus towards services consumption, which currently accounts for 46% of household spending in China, significantly lower than the 60% seen in developed countries [35][39] - Structural issues and cultural factors are identified as barriers to increasing services consumption, necessitating substantial policy efforts for improvement [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a 12-month S&P 500 return forecast of 10%, targeting a level of 6500 [2][3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 rose by 2% this week, driven by a delay in EU tariffs and a favorable US court ruling regarding tariffs [2][3]. - Rising bond yields, particularly the nominal 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.4%, are a significant concern for equity investors [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the relationship between bond yields and equities is influenced more by the drivers of yield changes rather than the absolute level of rates [2][7]. - Elevated bond yields are expected to constrain potential S&P 500 valuation expansion, with a 100 basis point change in real Treasury yields correlating to a 7% change in S&P 500 forward P/E [2][27]. - Most S&P 500 debt is fixed-rate with maturities beyond 2028, minimizing the risk to earnings from elevated bond yields [32][33]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The nominal 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to end 2025 at 4.5% and slightly increase to 4.55% in 2026, reflecting below-trend economic growth and above-target inflation [18][19]. - The report indicates that the market's focus on US fiscal outlook remains critical, especially following recent legislative developments [19][21]. Equity Performance - The report highlights that equities typically perform well when bond yields rise due to improved growth expectations, but struggle when yields increase due to fiscal concerns [7][14]. - The S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value, supported by strong corporate fundamentals, particularly among large-cap stocks [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid stocks with weak balance sheets, as these have underperformed compared to those with strong balance sheets [40][41]. - The report suggests rebalancing baskets of Weak Balance Sheet and Strong Balance Sheet stocks, as well as Interest Rate Sensitive stocks, which have outperformed amid rising bond yields [40][41].

30 May 2025 | 4:55PM HKT China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: May 30 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high-frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish our tracker on a bi-weekly basis. 1) Consumption and mobility Exhibit 1: 30-city daily property transaction volume in the primary market was largely in line with last year's level Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Res ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$455.00, indicating an upside potential of 13.6% from the current price of HK$400.40 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - Despite a year-to-date share price increase of approximately 35%, the stock is considered undervalued relative to strong market activity levels. The listing pipeline is growing, with over 150 companies having submitted applications to list in Hong Kong [1][22][29]. - The introduction of new products, particularly weekly expiries for index options and stock options, is expected to drive growth in average daily volume (ADV) for options. Historical data from the US and India suggests that index options ADV could outperform cash market volumes by 40 to 50 percentage points [2][44][45]. - The report projects a 15% potential upside to cash equity average daily trading (ADT) from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong over the medium term, with adjustments made to FY26-27E ADT estimates [1][23][41]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are projected at HK$25,721.8 million, HK$26,772.8 million, and HK$28,006.3 million respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [4][10]. - EPS estimates have been raised by 2%, 9%, and 10% for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, driven by higher volume expectations [2][10]. Market Activity - The report notes that HKEX has regained its position among the top five global IPO venues in Q1 2025, with around US$10 billion raised from IPOs year-to-date, nearly double the amounts raised in 2023 and 2024 [22][24]. - A-share companies listing H-shares for global expansion have accounted for over half of the IPO funds raised since 2024, with approximately 630 A-share companies identified as eligible to list H-shares [23][32]. Options Market - The introduction of zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options is anticipated to add approximately 10% to overall options ADV, based on successful models in the US and India [44][48]. - Currently, index options represent about 20% of total options ADV at HKEX, and the report suggests that this could lead to a significant increase in overall trading activity [2][44][60].

30 May 2025 | 11:10AM EDT Isabella Rosenberg Weekly Fund Flows Mostly Reallocation, Not Repatriation Global fund flows, week ending May 28 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 28-May | 4wk avg | 28-May | | Equity | 13,835 | -9,543 | 0.02 | -0.04 | | Fixed Income | 73,446 | 19,974 | 0.21 | 0.23 | | of which: EM | 6,853 | 2,803 | 0.32 | 0.52 | | Money Markets | 31,550 | -18,879 | 0.08 | -0.19 | | FX Flows* | 64,534 | 14,408 | 0.13 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) with a 12-month price target of $220 [16][22]. Core Insights - Alphabet is strategically positioned to capitalize on the AI era, particularly within its core search business, despite investor concerns regarding potential disintermediation [17][19]. - YouTube is viewed as an underappreciated asset with significant growth potential, projected to reach approximately $99 billion in total revenues by 2029, growing at a ~13% CAGR [2][23]. - The Search & Other segment is expected to grow from approximately $198 billion in 2024 to about $318 billion by 2030, reflecting an ~8% CAGR [19][22]. Segment Analysis - **Google Search & Other Segment**: - Projected revenue growth from ~$198 billion in 2024 to ~$318 billion in 2030, with a ~55% GAAP EBIT margin [19][22]. - Current implied enterprise value for the Search & Other segment is ~$671 billion, indicating a valuation of ~5.3x EV/2026 GAAP EBIT [22][24]. - **YouTube Segment**: - Estimated to grow revenues at a ~13% 5-year CAGR, reaching ~$99 billion by 2029, with YouTube Ads growing at ~11% CAGR and Non-Ads at ~16% CAGR [2][23]. - Current operating margin is estimated at ~10%, with potential improvement to ~15% by 2030 [23][24]. - The enterprise valuation for YouTube is framed at ~$475 billion [3][23]. - **Google Cloud Segment**: - Valued at approximately $710 billion, contributing to Alphabet's overall enterprise value [3][23]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue for GOOGL is projected to increase from $295.1 billion in 2024 to $406.6 billion in 2027 [4][13]. - **Earnings Projections**: - EPS is expected to grow from $8.04 in 2024 to $10.59 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][13]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [10][13].

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marque e Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 Thoughts on .. Tech (Mag7, TSM, SPE, Kioxia & Memory) 关于科技（Mag7、TSM、SPE、铠侠及 存储器）的思考 在同事休假期间代为⽀持销售⼯作，如有需要请告知 Backing up for our sales colleague while the y are out of office. Let me know if you need anything . Change of view on Hard data v Soft data . around six weeks ago, there was a conspicuous divergence between (surprisingly strong) hard data and (flagrantly weak) soft data. at that time, most folks (reasonably ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marque e Market Insights | Markets | Asia 市场洞察 | 市场 | 亚洲 GS Macro: Five things you need to know ⾼盛宏观：五⼤要点解读 Five things you need to know: 4/ As tari concerns fade, equity investor focus shifts to the 'one big beautiful bill' (US equity analysis) 4/ 随着关税担忧消退，股市投资者关注点转向"那⼀项宏伟法案（" 美国股市分析） 5/ RBI meeting preview (6 June) – 25bps cut expected; and another in Q3. 5/ 印度储备银⾏会议预览（6 ⽉ 6 ⽇）——预计降息 25 个基点；第三季度再降⼀次。 五件你需要知道的事： 1/ GS Weekend – thought leader views and weekend macro call 1 ...