证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 一季度持续高增，美洲地区增长近九倍 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季度经营情况，整体收益同比增长 165-170%。其中， 中国收益同比增长 95-100%；海外收益同比增长 475%-480%。 ❑ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、海外推广不及预期、监管及舆情风险。 财务数据与估值 | | | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：193.0 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1343 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1343 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 259.2 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 259.2 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 8.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 29.3 | | 资产负债率 | 26.8% | | 主要股东 | GWF Holding Limited | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.7837% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 29 186 491 相对表现 35 179 467 资料来源：公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 87%, primarily due to a reduction in income tax expenses [3]. - The company's net assets grew by 15.4% compared to the end of the previous year, attributed to rising interest rates in Q1 [3]. - The company has shown a strong commitment to transforming its dividend insurance products, achieving significant results with dividend insurance accounting for 98.9% and 88.6% of individual and bank insurance channels, respectively, in January and February [3]. - The estimated tax rate for 2025 is expected to normalize, which, despite a high base in investment income, allows for a forecast of double-digit profit growth [4]. - The current Price to Embedded Value (PEV) ratio is 0.20, indicating a low valuation and suggesting attention to investment opportunities [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 111,268 million HKD in 2024 to 115,036 million HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 3.39% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 8,432 million HKD in 2024 to 10,564 million HKD in 2025, with a growth rate of 25.29% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.35 HKD in 2024 to 2.94 HKD in 2025 [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.26% in 2024 to 12.04% in 2025 [9]. - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 4.42 in 2024 to 3.53 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong growth resilience, with significant new customer acquisition in tax-advantaged products in China and rapid expansion in business regions, suggesting good long-term growth potential [4]. - The company reported a 13% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) for Q1 2025, reaching $1.497 billion, with a margin improvement of 3.0 percentage points to 57.5% [2]. - The recent $1.6 billion share buyback program commenced on April 14, 2025, expected to be completed within three months [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the projected insurance revenue is $20.454 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [9]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is $6.732 billion, with a slight decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [9]. - The New Business Value is expected to reach $54.23 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1% [9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at $0.63, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.17 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company, China Ping An, is a comprehensive financial institution that continues to deepen its integrated financial model, catering to diverse customer needs [5] - The operating profit has shown steady growth, with a reported operating profit of 37.91 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5] - The new business value in the life insurance sector has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 34.9% in Q1 2025 [5] - The report highlights the optimization of the comprehensive cost ratio in property insurance, with a decrease of 3.0 percentage points to 96.6% in Q1 2025 [5] - The investment portfolio of insurance funds has grown, with a total investment portfolio exceeding 5.92 trillion yuan, marking a 3.3% increase from the beginning of the year [5] Financial Highlights - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,028.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 126.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 47.8% [4] - The new business value is forecasted to reach 28.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [4] - The embedded value of the group is projected to be 1,422.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 7.16 yuan in 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23.25 [3][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 36.22 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41% to CNY 1.15 billion, while the core net profit fell by 5% to CNY 2.23 billion [2][3][7] - The cyclical business showed steady growth, with a revenue of CNY 30.79 billion from cyclical operations, marking a 16% increase year-on-year, which now constitutes 85% of total revenue [7] - The company is actively reducing risks associated with related party transactions, with the proportion of revenue from related party transactions decreasing by 4 percentage points to 9.5% [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be CNY 36.22 billion, with a growth rate of 9.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 1.15 billion, reflecting a decline of 41.2% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at CNY 1.54, with subsequent years showing an increase to CNY 1.90 in 2026 and CNY 2.10 in 2027 [3][4] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 13.0% in 2024, with a slight recovery projected in the following years [4] - The company’s total assets are estimated to grow from CNY 39.38 billion in 2023 to CNY 50.15 billion by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with target prices of HKD 13.13 for H shares and RMB 21.34 for A shares [8][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 7.24 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.29%, and a net profit of RMB 2.76 billion, up 79.23% year-on-year. All business lines showed growth, with investment income increasing over 100% and brokerage income rising by 51% [1][2]. - The company continues to expand its investment portfolio, with financial investments growing by 18% year-to-date to RMB 435.1 billion, contributing to a total asset increase of 7% [2]. - The brokerage segment saw a significant recovery, with net brokerage income of RMB 2.04 billion, up 51% year-on-year, and net interest income of RMB 532 million, up 21% [3]. - Asset management and investment banking revenues showed modest growth, with asset management net income at RMB 1.69 billion, up 5% year-on-year, and investment banking net income at RMB 154 million, up 4% [4]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report adjusts earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 1.39, 1.51, and 1.66, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% to 8% due to uncertainties in market conditions [5]. - The projected book value per share (BPS) for 2025-2027 is RMB 20.32, 21.33, and 22.44, respectively [5]. - The report assigns a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.05 for A shares and a discounted PB of 0.6 for H shares, reflecting concerns over market liquidity and the stability of brokerage investment income [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][18] Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 92.7% year-on-year to 11.312 billion RMB, exceeding the expected growth range of 80%-100% [5][6] - The improvement in the Combined Operating Ratio (COR) was better than expected, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points to 94.5%, driven by reduced disaster losses and optimized expense inputs [5][6] - The company has seen a significant increase in underwriting profit, which rose by 183% year-on-year to 6.653 billion RMB [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 insurance premium income and service revenue were 180.421 billion RMB and 120.741 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.7% and 6.1% [5][8] - The company’s investment performance was strong, with a year-on-year increase in total investment return rate of 0.4 percentage points to 1.2% [6] - The financial investment asset allocation as of March 2025 included 30.6% in FVOCI equities, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is 516.176 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 34.954 billion RMB, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.57 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.31 [7] Segment Analysis - In Q1 2025, the auto insurance premium income and service revenue were 71.696 billion RMB and 74.334 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 2.8% [8] - Non-auto insurance premium income and service revenue reached 108.725 billion RMB and 46.407 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.8% and 11.7% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Property (06049.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit, with a notable increase in the dividend payout ratio to 50%. The management expects a recovery in profitability following business optimization adjustments [5][6] - The revenue for 2024 reached 16.34 billion HKD, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, while the net profit was 1.47 billion HKD, up 6.8% year-on-year. However, gross and net profit margins have slightly declined [6] - The property management revenue grew by 15.0% year-on-year to 11.67 billion HKD, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, despite a slight decrease in gross margin [7] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced new estimates for 2027, projecting net profits of 1.58 billion, 1.72 billion, and 1.88 billion HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 163.42 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 14.74 billion HKD, reflecting a 6.8% increase. The gross margin was 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 9.1%, down 0.2 percentage points [6][9] - The company’s cash and bank balance stood at 11.87 billion HKD at the end of 2024, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, with trade receivables rising by 4.8 billion HKD [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.86 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.9 times [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 87%, primarily due to a reduction in income tax expenses [3]. - The company's net assets grew by 15.4% compared to the end of the previous year, attributed to rising interest rates in Q1 [3]. - The company is effectively transitioning towards dividend insurance, with significant market share in both individual and bank insurance channels, achieving 98.9% and 88.6% respectively in early 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The company recorded an insurance service revenue of 107.489 billion HKD in 2023, with a projected growth to 115.036 billion HKD in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 3.39% [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 6.19 billion HKD in 2023 to 10.564 billion HKD in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 25.29% [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.72 HKD in 2023 to 2.94 HKD in 2025 [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of now, the company's price-to-embedded value (PEV) stands at 0.20 times, indicating a low valuation and suggesting potential investment opportunities [4]. - The report anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of 12.04% in 2025, increasing to 14.71% by 2027 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 6.03 in 2023 to 3.53 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23.25 [3][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 36.22 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41% to CNY 1.15 billion, while the core net profit fell by 5% to CNY 2.23 billion [2][3][7] - The company's cyclical business showed steady growth, with a revenue of CNY 30.79 billion from cyclical operations, marking a 16% increase year-on-year, which now constitutes 85% of total revenue [7] - The report highlights a significant decline in the gross margin of developer-related businesses, which has dropped to 0%, indicating a potential bottoming out of core net profit [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 36.22 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%. The operating profit was CNY 1.70 billion, down 36.2% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 1.15 billion, a decrease of 41.2% [4][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at CNY 0.98, with future estimates of CNY 1.54, CNY 1.90, and CNY 2.10 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][9] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 13% in 2024, with a slight recovery projected in subsequent years [4][9] Business Segments - The community space, commercial city services, and technology segments generated revenues of CNY 20.9 billion, CNY 12.3 billion, and CNY 3.0 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 5.4%, and 8.6% [7] - The company has successfully reduced its reliance on related party transactions, with the proportion of revenue from related parties decreasing by 4 percentage points to 9.5% [7] Market Comparison - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics against peers, indicating an adjusted average PE of 14x for comparable companies in 2025 [3][8]