证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 飞机交付有挑战，试水发动机业务 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 1 月 | 10 日│中国香港 | 租赁 | 中银航空租赁（BOCA）于 25 年 1 月 9 日披露了 4Q24 运营数据。上游飞 机制造商产能不足拖累飞机交付，4Q24 飞机交付数量 13 架，同比减少 26 架，季度末公司自有飞机数量环比小幅上涨至 435 架（3Q24：430 架）。公 司尝试发动机业务，4Q24 末自有 10 台发动机，我们认为有望弥补飞机产 能不足导致的资本开支缺口。另外美联储降息放缓可能导致公司资金成本面 临压力。我们预计 2024 年全年核心 ROE 或与 2023 年大致持平。"买入"。 2024 全年飞机交付未达目标，自有发动机数量达到 10 台 4Q24 公司共执行 77 项交易，包括交付 13 架飞机，承诺购买 14 架飞机， 承诺购买 4 台发动机，签署 28 项租赁承诺，出售 8 架自有飞机。2024 年 全年交付飞机 38 架，未达成中期业绩时 55 架的全年交付目 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang is positioned as a leading high-end Chinese gold brand, benefiting from the trend of domestic high-end jewelry consumption and the cultural revival in China. The company is expected to achieve significant growth in store numbers and operational performance [5][21]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.281 billion, 1.799 billion, and 2.305 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 7.61, 10.69, and 13.69 CNY, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized as the first brand in ancient gold craftsmanship in China, focusing on high-end positioning and cultural value. The brand has gained significant recognition, being listed among the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals [21][22]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 146%, and a net profit of 416 million CNY, up 340% year-on-year. The first half of 2024 saw revenue of 3.52 billion CNY, reflecting a 148% increase, and a net profit of 590 million CNY, a 199% increase [32][33]. Competitive Advantages - Laopuhuang maintains a high-end brand positioning and differentiates itself through unique product offerings, self-operated channels, and a strong brand narrative. The company emphasizes quality craftsmanship and cultural significance in its products, appealing to high-end consumers [36][41]. Growth Strategy - The company adopts a strategy of "building high walls, accumulating grain, and waiting to claim the throne," focusing on deepening customer relationships and maintaining a self-operated model without franchising. This approach is designed to enhance customer loyalty and brand recognition [5][36]. Market Potential - The high-end jewelry market in China exceeds 60 billion CNY, with Laopuhuang positioned to capture a significant share as consumer preferences shift towards high-quality gold products. The company is expected to benefit from increased penetration and repeat purchases among high-end clientele [6][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][17]. Core Views - TCL Electronics has launched the AI shooting glasses V3 under its Thunder brand, priced at 1799 yuan, which is positioned as a more cost-effective alternative to Meta's products [1][6]. - The global TV market shows strong demand for high-end large-screen products, and TCL is expected to benefit from this trend, alongside rapid growth in industries such as photovoltaics and AR/XR [9]. - The company is improving internal efficiency and increasing its market share in mid-to-high-end large-screen products, while its internet business remains profitable [9]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The Thunder V3 features a 12-megapixel Sony IMX681 sensor, ultra-wide angle, and a large aperture, optimized for over 20 scenes through a proprietary imaging system [4]. - The glasses weigh only 39 grams, enhancing user comfort, and include AI noise reduction and a custom speaker for sound quality [4][5]. - The product supports various charging methods, including a "use while charging" mode, with a battery life of 7 hours after a 40-minute fast charge [5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts TCL's net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.415 billion, 1.611 billion, and 1.952 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.77 HKD [9][10]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 78.986 billion HKD in 2023 to 140.273 billion HKD by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [10]. Market Position - TCL is positioned as a leader in the global TV industry, with a focus on expanding its smart glasses product line, which is anticipated to enhance its performance and brand recognition [9][6]. - The competitive pricing of the Thunder V3 compared to Meta's offerings is highlighted as a significant advantage, potentially driving market share growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.08, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the warm winter has slightly impacted retail gas sales, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for Kunlun Energy. The core earnings for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [2][5]. - The company is expected to see a retail gas sales growth of 8.6% for the full year of 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in natural gas demand starting November 2024 [5]. - The LNG receiving station's utilization rate for 2024 has been adjusted down by 1 percentage point to 89% due to a projected 1% year-on-year decline in natural gas imports [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Kunlun Energy are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 188,386 million - 2025E: RMB 202,300 million - 2026E: RMB 215,037 million [4][14]. - Net profit estimates have been revised to: - 2024E: RMB 6,466 million - 2025E: RMB 7,216 million - 2026E: RMB 7,883 million, reflecting decreases of 5.4%, 2.9%, and 3.6% respectively [4][14]. Operational Data - The forecasted gas sales volume is expected to grow as follows: - 2024E: 32.9 billion cubic meters - 2025E: 35.9 billion cubic meters - 2026E: 38.8 billion cubic meters, with growth rates of 8.6%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [6]. - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase to 3.27 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 52% [6]. Dividend Policy - The management has set a dividend payout target of 43% for 2024, increasing to 45% in 2025, with expected dividend yields of 4.4% and 5.1% respectively, which remains attractive [5].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q4 2024 performance showed improvement across all brands, with FILA exceeding growth expectations [1] - The company's multi-brand strategy continues to drive growth, with other brands achieving over 40% year-on-year growth [8] - Anta Sports has repurchased 22.87 million shares, totaling 1.638 billion yuan as of January 9, 2025 [8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue: 69.359 billion yuan, up 11.23% year-on-year [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: 13.536 billion yuan, up 32.23% year-on-year [1] - 2026E revenue forecast: 84.865 billion yuan, with net profit of 15.367 billion yuan [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E ratio: 14.92x [1] - 2024E ROE: 20.79% [9] - 2024E gross margin: 63.07% [9] Brand Performance Anta Brand - Q4 2024 sales growth: high single-digit year-on-year [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: close to double-digit [8] - Key drivers: new store formats and successful product launches (e.g., PG7 running shoes with over 1 million pairs sold) [8] FILA Brand - Q4 2024 sales growth: high single-digit year-on-year, exceeding expectations [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: mid-to-high single-digit [8] - Maintained brand leadership in sportswear fashion segment [8] Other Brands (Kolon Sport, Descente) - Q4 2024 sales growth: 60-65% for Kolon Sport, nearly 50% for Descente [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: 40-45%, exceeding targets [8] - Combined sales exceeded 10 billion yuan [8] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 78.60 [5] - Market capitalization: 221.905 billion HKD [5] - 52-week range: 60.20 - 107.50 HKD [5] Financial Forecasts Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets: 97.786 billion yuan [9] - 2024E cash and equivalents: 17.194 billion yuan [9] Income Statement - 2024E operating income: 69.359 billion yuan [9] - 2024E operating profit: 15.783 billion yuan [9] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow: 11.861 billion yuan [9] - 2024E capital expenditure: 2 billion yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 10x for 2025 [4][5] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, achieved high single-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q4 2024, with retail discounts ranging between 70-75% and inventory turnover days around 4 months, indicating stable operations [3] - E-commerce sales grew over 20% YoY in Q4 2024, driven by product structure optimization and the "Double 11" shopping festival, while offline sales grew at a low single-digit rate [3] - Saucony, a sub-brand, saw a 50% YoY growth in Q4 2024 and over 60% growth for the full year, with potential for long-term scale expansion due to improved product mix and store optimization [9] - The company is expected to achieve over 20% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, supported by the successful divestment of the KP business [9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline by 7.2% YoY in 2024 but rebound with 11.4% and 11.6% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 20.5% YoY in 2024, followed by 11.9% and 12.5% growth in 2025 and 2026 [10] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 42.2% in 2023 to 44.7% in 2026, while net margin is expected to remain stable at around 9.4% from 2025 onwards [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, then stabilize at around 12% in the following years [10] Operational Highlights - The company optimized its offline store structure in 2024 by opening larger stores and closing smaller ones, with the proportion of ninth-generation stores gradually increasing [3] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with channel inventory turnover days at around 4 months by the end of Q4 2024, reflecting efficient retail operations and inventory management [9] - The company continued to enhance its e-commerce business by increasing the proportion of high-value-for-money products, contributing to strong online sales growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The issuance of convertible bonds and the establishment of a call option spread are aimed at obtaining low-cost financing while controlling dilution risk [2] - The funds from the convertible bonds will be used for overseas store expansion, supply chain development, and shareholder return plans, with each area accounting for 50% of the total [3] - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, particularly in overseas markets, with significant improvements in profitability [4] Summary by Sections Convertible Bonds and Call Options - The company plans to issue $550 million in convertible bonds with a 7-year term and a coupon rate of 0.5%, with a conversion price set at HKD 64.395, representing a 26.14% premium over the closing price on January 6 [1] - The call option spread includes a lower call option and an upper warrant, with exercise prices set at HKD 64.395 and HKD 102.1, respectively [1][2] Use of Proceeds - The proceeds from the convertible bonds will primarily support overseas store expansion and supply chain enhancements, as well as a shareholder return plan focused on share buybacks [3] - As of Q3 2024, the company has opened 183 new overseas stores, bringing the total to 2,936, a year-on-year increase of 623 stores [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 171.7 billion, CNY 205.7 billion, and CNY 240.6 billion, respectively, with net profits of CNY 25.3 billion, CNY 32.0 billion, and CNY 40.0 billion [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 21% over the next few years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance showed steady growth, with **Anta's main brand** and **FILA** recording high single-digit growth, while other brands surged by **50%-55%** YoY [1] - For the full year 2024, Anta's main brand grew by high single digits, FILA by mid-single digits, and other brands by **40%-45%** YoY, demonstrating resilience in a challenging consumer environment [1][4] - FILA's performance exceeded market expectations, with a rapid turnaround in Q4, indicating strong brand adjustment effectiveness [2] - The company's **multi-brand strategy** continues to drive growth, with **Descente** and **Kolon** expected to surpass **RMB 10 billion** in sales in 2024, solidifying their leadership in the professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Business Analysis Anta Main Brand - The brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4, driven by **multi-channel strategies** and effective discount management [2] - Anta Kids also saw low double-digit growth, supported by its online and offline coverage of children's sports communities [2] - Inventory and channel health remained strong, with optimized online discounts and healthy inventory-to-sales ratios [2] FILA - FILA's Q4 performance was better than expected, with high single-digit growth in its mainline products and significant improvement in its fashion and kids' segments [2] - The brand's inventory-to-sales ratio remained healthy, and discounts were stable YoY, reflecting strong product appeal [2] Other Brands - **Descente** and **Kolon** recorded **50%-55%** YoY growth in Q4, maintaining strong momentum despite a high base [2] - These brands are expected to continue capturing market share in the high-growth professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Outlook for 2025 - The company expects **double-digit growth** for both Anta's main brand and FILA in 2025, driven by **new business models** and international expansion [3] - The **Super Anta stores**, which cater to the trend of consumption downgrading, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3] - The company is expanding its presence in **Southeast Asia**, the **Middle East**, and **Europe**, with retail stores already established in the US and Europe, and partnerships with cross-border e-commerce platforms [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's **EPS** for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 4.70**, **RMB 4.89**, and **RMB 5.66**, respectively, with P/E ratios of **15x**, **14x**, and **12x** [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 62.356 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 83.904 billion** in 2026, with a **10.08%** YoY growth rate in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from **RMB 10.236 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 15.967 billion** in 2026 [7] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with **82 Buy ratings** in the past six months and a consistent **1.00 score**, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HKD 104.11 per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 20X [9] Core Views - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading multi-brand sports group with competitive advantages in scarce quality multi-brand assets and a strong operational system [9] - The company's 24Q4 performance showed strong growth, with the main brand and FILA achieving high single-digit YoY growth, while other brands grew by 50-55% YoY [2][6] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 13.55 billion and RMB 13.7 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 83.92 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.0%-10.7% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.24 billion in 2023 to RMB 14.70 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 1.1%-32.4% [2] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at 62.7% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Brand Performance - Main brand turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, accelerating from Q1-Q3, driven by new store formats [2][6] - FILA's turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, showing significant improvement from previous quarters [2][6] - Other brands grew by 50-55% YoY in 24Q4, continuing the acceleration trend since Q1 [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports optimized store layouts and enriched its product matrix, launching the PG7 running shoe priced at RMB 399, which offers strong value for money [7] - The company opened over 300 new stores during National Day, including Olympic-themed stores and specialized formats [7] - FILA upgraded its store image and introduced new store types, such as the "Shoe Creation Space" and "Hall of Kings" [7] Financial Management - Anta Sports redeemed EUR 1 billion in convertible bonds and issued EUR 1.5 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, ensuring sufficient cash flow [8] - The company announced a HKD 10 billion share buyback plan, repurchasing 18.406 million shares at an average price of HKD 77.43, using HKD 1.43 billion [8] Industry Comparison - Anta Sports' PE ratio is projected to be 15.71X in 2024, lower than competitors like Nike (26.3X) and Lululemon (26.2X) [3] - The company's revenue growth is expected to outpace competitors, with a 10.0% YoY increase in 2024, compared to Nike's 7.4% and Adidas's 7.4% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Xtep International (01368 HK) [1][6] Core Views - Xtep's main brand achieved high single-digit retail sales growth in Q4 and full year 2024, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales growing low single-digit [2][3] - Saucony brand achieved over 60% growth in 2024, exceeding management guidance [2][3] - KP brand's divestiture is expected to enhance Xtep Group's profitability, with 2024 net profit target highly achievable [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast is adjusted to 1 25/14 0/15 6 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 20 9%/12 5%/10 9% [6] Operational Performance - Xtep main brand's Q4 retail discount improved to 7-7 5折 compared to 7折 in the same period last year [3] - Year-end inventory-to-sales ratio improved to 4 months, down from 4-4 5 months in the same period last year [3] - Saucony achieved approximately 50% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - January trends show positive momentum with main brand achieving double-digit growth, partly driven by earlier Chinese New Year [3] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 13 738/14 902/16 196 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit margin forecast: 9 1%/9 4%/9 6% [7] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 13 1%/13 8%/14 2% [7] - 2024-2026 PE ratio forecast: 11 3x/10 0x/9 0x [7] Valuation - Maintains reasonable valuation range of 6 1-6 6 HKD, corresponding to 11-12x 2025 PE [6] - Comparable company valuation shows Xtep trading at lower PE multiples than Anta and Li Ning [8] Strategic Focus - Company focuses on running category expertise, with main brand targeting mass market and Saucony targeting "dual elite" segment [6] - KP brand's divestiture expected to improve profitability, as it incurred annual operating losses of around 180 million yuan in 2022-2023 [6]