Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - Sales are gradually recovering, with a gross margin remaining robust. In Q2 2024, the company sold approximately 108,600 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. Total revenue reached 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% year-on-year and 23.6% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for vehicles in Q2 was 18.7%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB [4][5] - The company is accelerating the iteration of smart driving technology, launching a new generation of intelligent driving experience based on "end-to-end + VLM" [4] - The company is actively expanding its sales service and charging network, with 497 retail centers and 421 after-sales service centers as of June 30, 2024 [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, and 285.2 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 36.1%, and 45.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 99.75 - Total shares (million): 2,122 - Net assets (million RMB): 62,884 - Total assets (million RMB): 145,110 - Net asset per share (RMB): 29.63 [2] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 sales: 108,600 units, up 25.5% YoY - Q2 2024 total revenue: 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% YoY, 23.6% QoQ - Q2 2024 net profit: 1.1 billion RMB, non-GAAP net profit: 1.5 billion RMB - Q3 2024 sales guidance: 145,000 to 155,000 units, YoY growth of 38.0% to 47.5% [4] Future Outlook - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, 285.2 billion RMB - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 7.1 billion, 9.8 billion, 17.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue: 16.0%, 36.1%, 45.8% [4]

Investment Rating and Core Views - **Investment Rating**: Overweight (Initiation) [1] - **Core Views**: The company is a pioneer in the ancient gold jewelry market, leveraging its high-end product positioning and differentiated competition to drive growth through brand momentum, single-store efficiency, and store expansion [2] Company Overview - **Company Profile**: Founded in 2009, the company is a leading brand in ancient gold jewelry, focusing on the research, design, and sale of ancient gold products [11] - **Organizational Structure**: The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and his son holding a combined 62.03% of the shares. Employee incentives are robust, with multiple employee持股 platforms established [11][12] - **Financial Performance**: The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.18 billion, a 145.6% YoY increase, and net profit reaching RMB 416 million, a 340.4% YoY increase [14] Market and Industry Analysis - **Ancient Gold Market Growth**: The ancient gold market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [2] - **High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs)**: The company targets HNWIs, with a penetration rate of 5.7% among China's 3.16 million HNWIs in 2022. The company's products cater to the rational, self-indulgent, and social needs of HNWIs [39][40] Growth Drivers - **Brand Momentum and User Expansion**: The company's brand momentum is increasing, with a growing penetration rate among HNWIs and younger, middle-to-high-income consumers [4] - **Single-Store Efficiency**: The company's single-store efficiency is expected to continue improving, driven by product diversity, optimized channel conditions, and price adjustments [2] - **Store Expansion**: The company plans to open 13 new stores in the next two years, maintaining high standards and controlled expansion [2] Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Innovation**: The company focuses on R&D, with the founder leading the product development team. It has launched 324 new products and 419 iterations from 2021 to 2023, with new and iterated products accounting for over 12% of total revenue [33][34] - **Channel Expansion**: The company primarily operates through offline channels, with 88.6% of revenue coming from offline sales in 2023. It focuses on high-end commercial centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profit Forecast**: The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.006 billion, RMB 1.435 billion, and RMB 1.818 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.6x, 13.8x, and 10.9x [2] - **Gross Margin and Expense Ratio**: The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 42%, with a declining expense ratio due to economies of scale. The net profit margin improved to 16.7% in H1 2024 [16] Competitive Positioning - **Market Share**: The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market, ranking seventh. It is the only brand among the top ten players that focuses exclusively on ancient gold jewelry and operates all offline stores through a direct model [31][32] - **Comparison with Competitors**: The company's revenue and profit levels are lower than its peers due to its selective store locations and smaller store count. However, its gross and net profit margins are industry-leading, driven by its high-end product positioning and direct operation model [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a target price of HKD 63.35, implying a 22.30% upside from the current price [7] Core Views - Pop Mart's IP platformization and globalization strategies are yielding results, with overseas expansion and category diversification driving growth [5] - The company's overseas strategy is replicable, with higher pricing and profitability compared to the domestic market [5] - Pop Mart's overseas market potential is estimated to exceed RMB 10 billion, with a long-term target of over 500 stores globally [5][46] - The company's IP creation and operational capabilities have been validated, with a focus on extending IP lifecycles and expanding commercialization through category diversification [6] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue grew 2.6x in H1 2024, contributing 29.7% of total revenue, with Southeast Asia being a key growth driver [16] - The company's overseas gross margin exceeds domestic levels, with offline and online channels achieving 72% and 73% gross margins, respectively [17] - Pop Mart's overseas pricing strategy includes premium pricing in markets like the US and UK, with average premium rates ranging from 12% to 61% [20] - The company's overseas expansion follows a phased approach, transitioning from B2B to B2C and from light to heavy asset investments [31] Domestic Growth Sustainability - Pop Mart's domestic growth is supported by IP platformization, with multiple revenue-generating IPs reducing reliance on any single IP [55] - The company's offline retail store network in China is expanding, with 374 stores as of H1 2024, and there is still room for growth compared to Lego's 500 stores in China [58] - Category expansion, including high-end and derivative products, is driving ARPPU growth and contributing significantly to domestic revenue [64][65] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 10.278 billion, RMB 13.333 billion, and RMB 16.296 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 63%, 30%, and 22% [7] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 2.193 billion, RMB 2.849 billion, and RMB 3.568 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 30%, and 25% [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.60, indicating a potential upside of 94.4% from the current price of HKD 2.88 [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth driven by quality education services, with total revenue for FY24H1 reaching HKD 3.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.1% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24H1 was HKD 0.54 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 168.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company's contract liabilities have increased by 183.8% year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future financial performance [1]. - The quality education segment has become the main growth engine, contributing HKD 1.23 billion in revenue, a growth of 31.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company has doubled its employee count to 1,785, supporting its rapid growth [1]. Financial Performance Overview - For FY24H1, the company reported a gross profit margin of 44.96%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The operating profit margin improved significantly, with net profit margin rising to 23.4% from 17.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects revenue to reach HKD 10.91 billion in FY24, with a year-on-year growth of 123% [1]. - Forecasted net profit for FY24 is projected at HKD 185.2 million, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [2]. Business Strategy and Development - The company is actively optimizing its quality education courses and has successfully obtained non-profit school operation licenses in Guangzhou [1]. - New non-academic products have been launched, including "Fun Little Reporter" and "Literary Aesthetics," aligning with educational policies [1]. - The company is focused on compliance and transformation in response to regulatory changes, aiming to return to normal operational development [1]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the education and training industry in South China, with expectations of continued market share growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will gradually return to a normal growth trajectory, supported by its strategic initiatives and market demand [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Federal Pharmaceutical (03933 HK) with a "Buy" rating [2][3] Core Investment Thesis - Federal Pharmaceutical is a leading player in the penicillin-based antibiotics sector, benefiting from the current high industry demand [1] - The company has a well-established presence in the insulin and GLP-1 markets, with a robust pipeline including the innovative triple-target UBT251, which has global rights and is in advanced clinical stages [1] - The animal health business is poised to become a second growth driver, with three new production bases expected to alleviate capacity constraints [1] - The company has implemented an equity incentive plan in 2023, granting 12 0969 million shares, which is expected to enhance group cohesion [1] Antibiotics Business - Federal Pharmaceutical is the global leader in penicillin intermediates, with a nearly 50% market share in 6-APA production [1] - The company's 6-APA production is supported by high environmental barriers, ensuring stable competition [1] - In H1 2024, the company's intermediate revenue increased by 25 4% to RMB 1 314 billion, while API revenue rose by 1 2% to RMB 3 464 billion [1] - The company is expanding into higher-value sterile APIs, with a RMB 1 2 billion project in Gaolan Port expected to commence production in 2025 [1] Insulin and GLP-1 Pipeline - Federal Pharmaceutical has a comprehensive pipeline in the diabetes and weight loss sector, with 44 R&D projects, including GLP-1 products like liraglutide and semaglutide [2] - The company's UBT251, a triple-target GLP-1/GIP/GCG agonist, is the first in China and second globally to enter clinical trials using chemical synthesis [2] - The company's insulin products, including U40, U100, and premixed insulins, have secured favorable positions in national procurement, with a 52 5% increase in procurement volume [2] Animal Health Business - The animal health business has shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 75% from 2020 to 2023 [2] - The company's core products in the animal health sector are primarily antibiotic formulations, leveraging its expertise in antibiotics [2] - Three new production bases are expected to be operational by the end of 2024, with a combined output value exceeding RMB 5 billion [2] - The pet drug segment is a key focus, with over 40 pet drugs in the pipeline, including five Class 1 new veterinary drugs [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 3 095 billion, RMB 3 513 billion, and RMB 3 892 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 4 8x, 4 2x, and 3 8x for the same periods [2] Industry Overview - The global antibiotics market is projected to reach USD 57 billion by 2024, with China being the largest consumer [29] - The industry faces strict regulatory controls, with limited new capacity additions due to environmental barriers [30] - Federal Pharmaceutical holds a dominant position in the 6-APA market, with a 45% market share, followed by Chia Tai Tianqing and CSPC Pharmaceutical [34]

公司研究·海外公司快评 社会服务·酒店餐饮 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 曾光 0755-82150809 zengguang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980511040003 证券分析师： 钟潇 0755-82132098 zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980513100003 证券分析师： 张鲁 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120002 优于大市 百胜中国（09987.HK） 促消费政策频出经营望受益，持续回购彰显管理层信心 事项：9 月 24 日，百胜中国宣布，位于上海嘉定区的百胜中国供应链管理中心正式竣工并 投入运营，该中心为百胜中国最大的自建供应链中心。 国信社服观点 1）财报回顾：2024Q2 经调整净利润增速环比转正同增 7%，同店&开店韧性表现、降本增效综合助力。 2024H1，公司收入 56.4 亿美元/+1%；经调整净利润 4.99 亿美元/+2%。2024Q2，公司收入 26.8 亿美元/+1%； 经调整净利润为 2.12 亿美元/+7%，降本增效助力利润增 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 9,957 million RMB in 2023 to 11,387 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 14.4% [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the company is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 50.94 billion RMB in 2024, 59.91 billion RMB in 2025, and 71.62 billion RMB in 2026 [3]. - The domestic business is performing well, with a notable increase in occupancy rates and data center area, which has grown to 580,165 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [3]. - International business demand is also on the rise, with significant growth in the GDSI segment, which achieved a revenue of 2.56 billion RMB in Q2 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [3]. Financial Summary - The company's total assets are reported at 791.65 billion RMB, with a net asset value of 194.47 billion RMB [1]. - The projected net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 4,285 million RMB in 2023 to a profit of 329 million RMB by 2026 [2][4]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to increase, with net profit margins projected to rise from -43.0% in 2023 to 30.1% in 2026 [2][4]. Business Development - The company is actively pursuing asset monetization projects, including the establishment of a REIT for data center assets, which is currently undergoing regulatory approval [3]. - The company has a cash balance of 31 billion RMB as of Q2 2024, with plans for further equity financing to support growth initiatives [3]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong position in both domestic and international markets, with a clear strategy for growth and expansion in data center services [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased demand for data center services driven by technological advancements and digital transformation trends [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 10, 2024, which is expected to enhance its visibility and trading volume [1]. - The company has shown robust operational performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in student enrollment, reaching approximately 130,000 students [1]. - The company is expanding its management services for schools, having signed contracts for eight managed schools this year, which is anticipated to create a second growth avenue [1]. - Revenue and profit have experienced significant growth, with FY2024H1 revenue reaching 1.645 billion RMB, a 73.8% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 319 million RMB, up 70% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 3.847 million shares at HKD 3.35 per share, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [1]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.315 billion RMB, 4.536 billion RMB, and 6.014 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.97%, 36.8%, and 32.6% respectively [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 544 million RMB, 752 million RMB, and 1.029 billion RMB, with growth rates of 48.9%, 38.1%, and 36.8% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 17X, 12X, and 9X, which are below the average PE ratios of comparable companies [1][3].

30 Sep 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥(1378 香港) 预计中国刺激后 ASP 会上升 我们相信铝（Al）是受中国推出一系列强力市场政策影响最为敏感的行业之一 。这将与美元因美国开始降息周期而走弱以及铝相对较有限的新供应量相结合 ，有望在短期内推动铝价上涨，成为虹桥的关键催化剂。我们上调了2024年至 2026年的盈利预测，增幅为9-12%，主要由于铝价假设上调。据估计，每1%的 铝价上涨将使虹桥的每股收益增加4%。目前，虹桥正处于中期估值水平（2024 年市盈率7倍），具有吸引力的股息收益率7%。基于不变的9.8倍2024年市盈率 ，我们新的目标价为19.6港元（此前为17.9港元）。维持 BUY . ... 近期需求将得到政策的支持。 我们估计，中国的建筑（包括房地产和基 础设施）以及汽车市场分别占全球人工智能需求的16%和14%。我们认为，中 国政府的政策将有助于稳定上述需求的预期。从长期来看，我们继续看好汽车 轻量化趋势和太阳能安装的快速增长，这些因素将成为人工智能结构性增长的 动力。 新供应有限... 中国8月份的铝产量同比增长放缓至1.3%（低于6月和 ...

30 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Expect higher ASP following China's stimulus We believe aluminum (Al) is one of the sectors that is highly sensitive to the launch of the series of forceful pro-market policies in China. This, together with the weakness of dollar as a results of the start of rate-cut cycle in the US and a relatively limited new supply of Al, will likely boost the near-term Al price which will serve as ke ...