国产半导体设备替代加速，订单可见度提升驱动 ASMPT(00522) 证券研究报告 半导体 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2026.01.07 投资评级:增持(首次) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 85.25 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 4.18 | | 每股净资产(港元) | 35.31 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.18 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -42% -21% 1% 22% 44% 65% ASMPT 恒生指数 半导体 分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 分析师 景柄维 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090009 jingbw@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (港币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 14,697 | 13,229 | 14,114 ...

/ 利率｜继续跌吗？一个神奇的历史规律 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《量化 | 30 年国债及 3 年 AAA 中短票 择时模型 》 2026-01-05 2. 《信用 | 科创债成分券能否继续反弹？》 2026-01-05 3. 《转债 | 节后转债有何季节性规律？》 2026-01-04 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.07 核心观点 ❖ 开年债市连续调整，10 年国债和 30 年国债已经相继破位，从历史出发，债 市利率通常在 1 月中旬前后会选择方向，究竟是继续下跌？还是盘整后回 暖？ 遇事不决，可以先看看概率，一个神奇的规律是，统筹观察岁末年初的债市， 利率单边上行的概率极低，过去 10 年利率呈现 5 年 V 型、2 年倒 V 型、2 年单边下行、1 年单边上行，即使是 2016 年末到 2017 年初利率单边上行， 期间也有一个近 40bp 的下行波段。 ...

商业版图深耕致远，持信守约奋进拓新 新城控股(601155) 证券研究报告 房地产开发 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2026.01.06 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-05 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 14.52 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.56 | | 每股净资产(元) | 27.43 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.56 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -5% 5% 14% 23% 32% 42% 新城控股 沪深300 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 财通证券 幸运用可红 2026年1月投资策略 SAC: S0160523030003 SAC: S0160522030002 SAC: S0160524070004 SAC: S0160524070003 : 2026年1月4日 核心观点 回顾：长期研判：2025H2策略《蓄力新高》提示长期机会，上证指数一度破4000，2026Y策略《奔马资产，策马逐牛》拥抱"奔马资产"（全球竞争力龙头），领军价值重值。中期 节奏分析：11月初《如何布局年底政策窗口期？》提示年底可能偏震荡观望，12月初《春季疑动的十词十答》前瞻提示已基本筑底、月底可能启动, 慢牛才近半，春季可能开门红，提示积极布局春季跟动行情。 1）长期-牛市有僧化：①中国政策看，对全球局势有信心，刘经济/新质支持态度坚定，方案从政府支持转向放权给市场、预计更有活力；2美国政策看，宽财政+贯货币趋势明确，今 年修复趋势大哪率，同时对华态度可能进一步缓和：3美股映南看，去年11-12月科技估值讨论+降息预期担优等利空消化告一段落；9新增资金看，预计公募发行复苏，险资增量可期 (详见《奔马资产，策马逐牛》）。⑤对比历史牛市，本轮催化可能强于201 ...

"攻守兼备"特征凸显——2025 年转债复盘 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《超预期的票息为王——2025 年信用债 复盘》 2025-12-30 2. 《2025：非典型震荡市——利率债年度 复盘》 2025-12-30 3. 《一份相对满意的答卷——2025 年中国 金融稳定报告点评》 2025-12-30 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.12.31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 2025 年，转债表现优秀，股性贡献主要收益。从收益率表现来看，2025 年转债市场的表现仅次于 2014、2019 年，基本打平 2021 年，是 2010 年 以来收入表现第三高的年份，2021 年以来收入表现最好的年份。从收入拆解 上来看，2025 年正股、估值对涨跌贡献比重大概在 7:4 左右，结构类似 2021 年，股性贡献为主。 ...

大湾区核心路产，固本提质行稳致远 深高速(600548) 证券研究报告 铁路公路 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.12.30 | 投资评级:增持(首次) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-12-29 | | 收盘价(元) | 8.88 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 24.62 | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.21 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 深高速 沪深300 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,295 | 9,246 | 10,245 | 10,501 | 11,270 | | 收入增长率(%) ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, particularly focusing on the cost reduction potential of aluminum replacing copper in air conditioning systems [2][5] - The adoption of aluminum-copper technology is seen as a significant step towards reducing production costs amid rising copper prices and resource scarcity [10][15] Group 1: Aluminum-Copper Technology Impact - The use of aluminum instead of copper in air conditioning units can lead to substantial cost savings, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 208 to 277 RMB per unit when replacing 50% of copper, and up to 416 to 554 RMB when replacing 100% [11][12] - Copper currently constitutes about 26% to 33% of the cost in standard air conditioning units, with high-end models reaching over 40% [11][12] - The global market has seen significant adoption of aluminum-copper products, particularly in Japan where approximately 40% to 50% of air conditioners use aluminum heat exchangers [15][16] Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges - Despite the cost advantages, the domestic promotion of aluminum-copper air conditioners faces challenges, including inferior thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance compared to copper [19][20] - Consumer perception is a major barrier, as negative opinions about aluminum's reliability persist, complicating market acceptance [19][20] - The first domestic aluminum-copper air conditioner was launched by Wanbao in collaboration with JD.com, targeting the mid-to-low-end market, which may help accelerate industry-wide material transitions [16][17] Group 3: Industry Performance and Trends - The home appliance sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall index increasing by 0.44%, while specific segments like white goods and black goods experienced varied changes [21][22] - Recent data indicates a decline in domestic sales growth for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, reflecting broader market challenges [33][47] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring raw material prices, with copper and aluminum prices showing significant fluctuations that could impact production costs [29][31]

1. 《转债主动调整冷却期，如何定价？—— 宏图转债调整冷却期点评》 2025-12- 29 2. 《布局春躁，开门红可期——1 月转债市 场展望》 2025-12-28 3. 《信用 | 把握跨年前的窗口 》 2025- 12-28 2025：非典型震荡市——利率债年度复盘 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.12.30 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 ❖ 2025 年是极不寻常的震荡市，利率调整幅度有限、信用是牛市，但纯债 产品净值中位数几乎是历史低点。有哪些启示？第一，经济寻底过程中不 会是简单的单边趋势，货币财政形成合力的阶段，债市的确要有一定敬畏； 第二，利率越低、货币政策的约束越来越多，审慎管理对利率的边界有严 格控制；第三，低利率环境下机构行为有深刻变化，大类资产比价对债券 的影响会被放大，纯粹的配置盘越来越少，供需逻辑越来越重要；第四， ...

一份相对满意的答卷 ——2025 年中国金融稳定报告点评 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2025.12.30 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 闵志新 minzx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《转债主动调整冷却期，如何定价？—— 宏图转债调整冷却期点评》 2025-12- 29 2. 《布局春躁，开门红可期——1 月转债市 场展望》 2025-12-28 3. 《信用 | 把握跨年前的窗口 》 2025- 12-28 核心观点 ❖ 2025 年中国金融稳定报告出炉，从行文看交上了一份满意的答卷，未来审慎 管理体系将继续发力，对利率的诉求是稳，对股市的要求是做增量，进一步 打击降息预期。但从宏观出发，在政府加杠杆、居民降杠杆、企业稳杠杆的 阶段，稳定的低利率环境依旧是最大公约数。 ❖ 金融稳定报告中有哪些重要信息？ 首先，2025 年报告对我国现阶段金融业运行持积极肯定态度，去年重点关注 的重点工作等均取得阶段性成效。对于下一阶段，工作重 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Important news: The scale of ETFs exceeded 6 trillion yuan for the first time; the number of fund issuances this year reached the second - highest in history; the IPO financing amount of Hong Kong stocks ranked first globally [2]. - Market review: From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the major broad - based indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 1.88%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4657.24, up 1.95%; most overseas indices also rose [2][14]. - Fund market review: Most active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, with a median interval return of 2.40%. Manufacturing and technology - themed funds performed outstandingly [2]. - ETF fund statistics: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance this week were manufacturing (5.01%), cyclical (3.72%), and commodity futures (3.41%) theme ETFs. There were 336 ETFs with net capital inflows and 703 with net outflows [2]. - Fund market dynamics: This week, 54 public funds had new fund managers, 65 new public funds were established, with a combined issuance share of 278.94 billion shares, and 35 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. As of December 28, 2025, there were 38 public funds waiting to be issued [2]. - Equity fund issuance tracking: From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the issuance scale of equity funds reached 11.864 billion yuan, an increase of 5.014 billion yuan compared with last week. There were still 229 newly - issued funds in the position - building period, and it is estimated that 72.691 billion yuan of funds have not been invested yet [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - International silver futures prices approached $80 per ounce, and the prices of various precious metal futures reached new highs. Gold prices soared by over 70% this year, and silver prices rose by over 170%. Platinum futures prices also reached a record high, and New York copper prices continued to rise [6]. - In 2025, public REITs developed rapidly. By mid - December, nearly 80 products had been issued, with a total market value exceeding 220 billion yuan, covering ten major fields. The secondary - market performance showed a "first - rising - then - falling" trend [6][7]. - On December 23, 2025, E Fund's sales subsidiary, E Fund Wealth, officially started operations. Huatai - PineBridge Fund and GF Fund also had relevant developments in their subsidiaries [7]. - On December 26, 2025, the national venture capital guidance fund was officially launched, using over - long - term special treasury bonds, with 100 billion yuan of fiscal investment at the national level, aiming to leverage a trillion - yuan capital scale [8]. 1.2 Product Highlights - On December 23, 2025, the net subscription amount of bond ETFs was close to 20 billion yuan, and science - and - technology innovation bond ETFs were the main targets for capital addition [8]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total number of ETFs in the market reached 1391, with a total scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, officially exceeding the 6 - trillion - yuan mark [9]. - As of December 25, 2025, the number of fund issuances this year reached 1498, the second - highest in history. Index funds and FOF products were popular [10][11]. 1.3 Overseas/Overseas Markets - On December 29, 2025, China Asset Management's two flagship ETFs will be listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand through DRs, which is an important step in the cooperation between Chinese and Thai capital markets [12]. - In 2025, the IPO financing amount of Hong Kong stocks ranked first globally. From January to November, the average daily trading volume of the spot market increased by 43% year - on - year. As of December 19, 106 companies were listed, with a total financing of 274.6 billion Hong Kong dollars [13]. 2. Market Review - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, major broad - based indices in the A - share market rose. Overseas, most indices also showed an upward trend [2][14]. - This week, the non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries led the gains, while the commercial retail, coal, and banking industries were among the top decliners [16]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term, manufacturing and technology - themed funds performed well; in the medium - term, cyclical and manufacturing - themed funds were in the forefront; in the long - term, technology and manufacturing - themed funds were outstanding [18]. - This week, most active equity funds achieved positive returns, and the median interval return was 2.40%. Manufacturing and technology - themed funds had the highest median interval returns [20][21]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - This week, the top - performing active equity fund was the Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Strong Country Industry Fund, with an interval return of 15.69% [23][24]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - This week, the top three ETF categories in terms of interval return were manufacturing, cyclical, and commodity futures theme ETFs [25]. - In the past month, the top three were also cyclical, manufacturing, and commodity futures theme ETFs [25]. 4.2 ETF Capital Flow Statistics - This week, the top categories with net capital inflows were bonds, A - share broad - based, and commodity futures ETFs, while manufacturing ETFs had the largest net outflows [29]. - In the past month, A - share broad - based, bonds, and technology ETFs had the largest net inflows, while manufacturing ETFs had the largest net outflows [29]. - This week, 336 ETFs had net capital inflows, and 703 had net outflows. The top three in terms of net inflows were the Yin Hua CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of net outflows were the HFT CSI Short - Term Financing Bond ETF, etc. [31]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - For non - QDII ETFs, as of December 26, 2025, the top three in terms of premium rate were the GF Hang Seng Index Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of discount rate were the Founder Fubon CSI 500 ETF, etc. [33][34]. - For QDII ETFs, as of December 25, 2025, the top three in terms of premium rate were the Invesco Great Wall NASDAQ Technology Market Value - Weighted ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of discount rate were the China Merchants Li An Emerging Asia Select ETF, etc. [34][35]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - This week, 54 public funds had new fund managers, involving 50 fund managers from 31 fund management companies. The top two fund management companies with the most new fund manager appointments were Penghua Fund and GF Fund [36]. - This week, 77 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 57 fund managers from 33 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies with the most departures were Penghua Fund, E Fund, and Chuangjin Hexin Fund [37]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds This Week - This week, 65 new public funds were established, with a combined issuance share of 278.94 billion shares. The most common types were partial - stock hybrid and secondary bond funds. GF Fund had the largest combined issuance share [39]. 5.3 Funds First Issued This Week - This week, 35 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. GF Fund had the most newly issued funds, and the most common type was partial - stock hybrid funds [41][42]. 5.4 Funds to Be Issued - As of December 28, 2025, there were 38 public funds waiting to be issued, including 13 partial - stock hybrid, 10 passive index, 7 hybrid FOF, etc. GF Fund had the most funds to be issued [45]. 5.5 Equity Fund Issuance Tracking - This week, the issuance scale of equity funds reached 11.864 billion yuan, an increase of 5.014 billion yuan compared with last week [47]. - Currently, there are 229 newly - issued funds in the position - building period, 46.29% of which have a position - building ratio of less than 5%, and it is estimated that 72.691 billion yuan of funds have not been invested yet [50]. - After the establishment and position - building of these funds, the top three industries with the largest capital increments are electronics, power equipment and new energy, and machinery [53]. - For the funds that have completed the fundraising, the top three industries with the largest capital increments are electronics, food and beverage, and machinery [55].