Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overall, production is weak during the off - season, credit momentum shows a weak recovery, external demand improves marginally, and there is still uncertainty in the year - end fundamentals, but the bond market can still be viewed optimistically [2]. - In the production sector, the November production PMI and its month - on - month change are lower than the seasonal average, and the year - on - year production is expected to decline slightly [2]. - In the demand sector, in terms of investment, the average prices of cement and asphalt decreased in November, infrastructure remained weak, real estate investment was weak with continued year - on - year decline in sales, and manufacturing investment showed weak recovery with marginal improvement in new orders but a month - on - month decline in the enterprise business condition index; in terms of consumption, the pre - placement of the Double Eleven event reduced its impact, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales is expected to continue to decline slightly; in terms of foreign trade, the high - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November, and both exports and imports are expected to increase slightly year - on - year [2]. - Bill rates first rose and then fell, and credit momentum continued the weak recovery trend. Even considering the possible matching of enterprise medium - and long - term loans due to the implementation of policy - based financial instruments, enterprise and household credit may still increase less compared to the same period last year [2]. - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased slightly while fresh vegetable prices increased significantly. The year - on - year CPI is expected to rise significantly, and the ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials remained divergent, with the year - on - year decline of PPI expected to widen slightly [2]. - Overall, it is expected that in November, the year - on - year industrial added value will be 4.7%, the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment will be - 2.5%, the year - on - year social retail sales will be 2.6%, the year - on - year exports will be 3.9%, the year - on - year imports will be 3.3%, the year - on - year CPI will be 0.9%, and the year - on - year PPI will be - 2.3%. It is also expected that the new credit in November will be 450 billion yuan, the new social financing will be 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year M2 will be 8.3% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real - Economy Data - It is expected that the year - on - year industrial added value in November will be 4.7%, and the year - on - year in December will be 4.9%. From 2021 - 2024, the month - on - month industrial added value in November had a high correlation with PMI but a low correlation with high - frequency data. The production PMI and its month - on - month change were lower than the seasonal average, and the high - frequency data of the asphalt plant operating rate was weak [7]. - It is expected that the cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment in November will be - 2.5%, and in December it will be about - 3%. Infrastructure investment remained weak in November, with the construction PMI rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.6% but still at a low level in the past 10 years, and the average prices of cement and asphalt decreasing; real estate investment continued to weaken, with the decline in new home sales expanding and second - hand home sales declining year - on - year; manufacturing investment remained stable, with the new order PMI rising 0.4 percentage points to 49.2% but still in the contraction range and the enterprise business condition index decreasing 0.43 percentage points to 51.56% [8]. - It is expected that the year - on - year social retail sales in November will be 2.6%, and in December it will be 2.9%. The service PMI decreased 0.7 percentage points to 49.5% in November. In terms of high - frequency data, automobile consumption weakened, with the retail sales of passenger cars from November 1 - 23 decreasing 11% year - on - year and 2% compared to the previous month, while non - commodity consumption showed strong resident travel intensity [9]. - It is expected that the year - on - year CPI in November will be 0.9%, and in December it will be 1.1%. Pork prices decreased slightly while vegetable prices increased significantly in November, and considering the low base last year, the CPI is expected to rise. Looking forward, pork prices will remain low in the short term, and vegetable prices may decline seasonally. It is expected that the year - on - year PPI in November will be - 2.3%, and in December it will be - 2.2%. The ex - factory price index and the purchase price index of major raw materials increased in November, and the average price of crude oil decreased while the average prices of rebar and LME copper increased slightly, and the average price of coking coal decreased slightly [9][10]. 2. November Import and Export Data Forecast 2.1 Expected November Export Year - on - Year Growth of 3.9% - High - frequency indicators of external demand showed marginal improvement in November. The SCFI index continued to rise, the BDI index fluctuated upwards, and the container load of the top 20 ports recovered. However, considering the end of the year - end export rush, the decline in European manufacturing prosperity, and the US government shutdown, it may be difficult for the export growth rate to return to the level before October. It is expected that the year - on - year export growth in November will be 3.9%, and in December it will be 1.3% [18]. 2.2 Expected November Import Year - on - Year Growth of 3.3% - The new order sub - index of the November PMI increased, and the import freight rate recovered. The new order sub - index of the manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, and the import sub - index of the PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating marginal but weak recovery of domestic demand. The CDFI index fluctuated upwards in November. It is expected that the year - on - year import growth in November will be 3.3%, and in December it will be 0.1% [30]. 3. Monetary Credit: Increase in the Proportion of Direct Financing 3.1 Expected November New Credit of 450 Billion Yuan - It is expected that in November 2025, the new credit will be 0.45 trillion yuan, in December it will be about 0.95 trillion yuan, and in January 2026 it will be 5.35 trillion yuan. Enterprise credit is expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly in November but was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprise short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; the issuance of special refinancing bonds increased, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments may support enterprise medium - and long - term loans, so enterprise medium - and long - term loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year. Resident credit is also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The Double Eleven event supported consumption, so resident short - term loans are expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year; due to the high - base effect and weak real estate sales, resident medium - and long - term loans are also expected to increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. Table - based bill financing and non - bank loans are expected to decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, while overseas loans are expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][39]. 3.2 Expected November New Social Financing of 2.02 Trillion Yuan and M2 Year - on - Year Growth of 8.3% - It is expected that in November 2025, the new social financing will be about 2.02 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth of the social financing balance will decline to 8.4%. In December 2025 and January 2026, the new social financing is expected to be about 1.46 trillion yuan and 7.20 trillion yuan respectively, and the year - on - year growth of the balance will be about 8.0%. Direct financing is expected to be about 145.4 billion yuan, including about 120 billion yuan of government bond financing, about 20 billion yuan of enterprise bond financing, and about 5.4 billion yuan of stock financing. Non - standard financing is expected to be about 17.5 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan of entrusted loans and trust loans and about 15 billion yuan of off - balance - sheet bills. Other sub - items are expected to total 7 billion yuan. Considering the growth rate of social financing and government bond expenditures, the year - on - year M2 growth in November is expected to be about 8.3%, and in December 2025 and January 2026, M2 is expected to be 7.9% and 8.1% respectively [40][44].

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on the financial, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery sectors for December [1] - The value-growth rotation strategy has a composite score of 5, indicating a higher score for growth style as of November 30, 2025 [3][6] - The small-cap style has a higher score in the size rotation strategy, with a composite score of 4 [8] Style Rotation Insights - The large-cap stocks are more sensitive to economic prosperity, while growth stocks benefit more from liquidity easing [3][6] - The value-growth rotation strategy yielded a growth index return of -2.85% and a value index return of 0.35% in November 2025 [6] - The size rotation strategy showed a return of -2.46% for the CSI 300 and -2.30% for the CSI 1000 in November 2025 [8] Industry Rotation Insights - The report constructs a four-dimensional engine with macro, fundamental, technical, and crowding indicators for industry index rotation [11] - The top five industries for December based on the industry rotation composite score are banking, electronics, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials [3][23] - The bottom five industries are coal, real estate, construction, oil and petrochemicals, and textiles and apparel [3][23] Macro Indicators - The macroeconomic growth dimension is in the "expansion strengthening/recession alleviation" phase, while the liquidity dimension is in the "easing intensification/tightening slowdown" phase as of November 30, 2025 [13] - The report recommends allocating to the large financial and midstream manufacturing sectors based on these macro indicators [13] Fundamental Indicators - The top five industries based on fundamental indicators are non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electronics, telecommunications, and electric equipment and new energy [17] - The bottom five industries based on fundamental indicators are real estate, coal, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and textiles and apparel [17] Technical Indicators - The top five industries based on technical indicators are electronics, banking, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and machinery [18] - The bottom five industries based on technical indicators are coal, construction, food and beverage, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate [18] Crowding Indicators - The industries with high crowding indicators include basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, agriculture, real estate, and textiles and apparel [22] - The industries with low crowding indicators are machinery, non-bank financials, automobiles, computers, and food and beverage [22]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index increased by 2.85% in the past week, ranking 14th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry [7] - Over the past month, the index decreased by 4.05%, ranking 25th out of 31 [10] - The one-year performance shows a 12.94% increase, ranking 15th out of 31 [18] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 77.60, which is at the 73.27 percentile compared to the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation level [13][14] - Notable individual stock performances include LeiKe Defense (32.30%), ZhongTian Rocket (21.60%), and HongDa Electronics (14.28%) in the past week [19][29] - The total transaction amount for the defense and military industry reached 378.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.64% [33] - The report suggests focusing on investment themes such as commercial aerospace, military trade, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [42] Industry and Stock Performance Review - The defense and military industry index performance over the past week, month, and year shows varying trends, with a notable increase in the last week [7][10][18] - Individual stock performance highlights significant gains for top performers and losses for underperformers in the past week [19][29] - The PE-TTM ratios across various sub-sectors indicate differing valuation levels, with aerospace equipment at 77.82 and military electronics at 106.55 [13][14] Funding Situation - The total transaction volume for the defense and military industry reached 378.8 billion yuan, reflecting a strong market activity compared to previous periods [33] - The military ETF fund shares decreased slightly compared to the previous week and month, but showed a significant year-on-year increase [35] Industry News - The launch of the commercial aerospace three-year action plan aims to enhance innovation and resource utilization in the industry [42] - The establishment of a space data center is underway, which will support the development of a large-scale data center system in orbit [43] - The report highlights key developments in the defense and military sector, including significant contracts and partnerships [39][41]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by fire safety demand following recent incidents [4][6]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement prices have shown fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price declines while others, particularly in the south, are seeing price increases due to environmental pressures [6]. - The average number of days for staggered production among cement companies in China increased by 15 days year-on-year to 177 days in 2025, indicating a tightening supply [6]. - Long-term demand for cement is expected to stabilize, with a focus on supply-side reforms aimed at capacity control and carbon emission restrictions [6]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in Africa and Central Asia, where demand is driven by population growth and infrastructure needs [6]. - Companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are recommended for their high dividend yield and potential for overseas revenue growth [6]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The demand for fireproof materials and equipment is anticipated to rise, particularly following fire safety inspections mandated by authorities [6]. - The report outlines the classification of building materials based on combustion performance, with a focus on non-combustible and fire-resistant materials [6]. - Companies in the fire safety sector, such as Qingniao Fire Protection, are expected to benefit from increased demand for equipment upgrades and stricter regulations [6]. - The report notes that the domestic household fire safety market is poised for rapid growth, supported by increasing awareness and regulatory developments [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of treasury bond futures shows that after the head - and - shoulders bottom breakdown, there was a significant decline. Wait for the short - term stabilization and subsequent repair market. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rebounded and then declined this week, and the short - term still awaits stabilization. TL2603's trend weakened significantly after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom. From the perspective of the wave theory, the decline starting from November 5th is considered a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [2]. - In the treasury bond futures data tracking, the main contracts are changing. The 2603 contracts' cash - and - carry arbitrage still needs to wait. Treasury bond futures declined overall this week, with the trading activity rising. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors. The CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts increased overall, with a decline in TL. The IRR decreased for all except TL. Currently, the overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis - **1.1 Previous Trend Review**: TL's repair was poor after the breakdown, and there was a significant decline in the middle of the week. T and TL declined significantly in the middle of the week. TL2603 rebounded on Monday after breaking below the neckline of the head - and - shoulders bottom last week but was under pressure at the lower edge of the trading area in mid - early November. After the rebound, it declined again. On Wednesday, there was a significant increase in positions and a decline. It rebounded slightly on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 touched the 5 - day moving average on Friday and then declined, and the current form remains weak [7]. - **1.2 Subsequent Market Outlook**: After the significant decline in the middle of the week, the trends of T and TL are weak, and the decline has暂缓. The focus is on the opportunity to participate in the upward repair of the market. T2603 broke below the 60 - day line on Wednesday and stood back on it and was supported on Thursday and Friday. TL2603 declined significantly after rebounding to the lower edge of the upper box on Monday. The decline of T2603 and TL2603 since November 5th has shown three waves. It is inclined to be a B - wave adjustment of the rebound since late September. Even if it is a new downward wave since November 5th, a 4th - wave rebound can still be expected. One can consider participating in the subsequent repair market after short - term stabilization. If the market continues to bottom out in the short term, attention can be paid to the 60 - day and 250 - day moving averages of T2603 and the 20 - week moving average of TL2603 [12]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Tracking - Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on November 28th, the closing prices of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.745, 107.940, and 114.49 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, - 0.160, - 0.300, and - 0.88 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased compared to last week. The volume/holding ratio increased for all tenors [3][15]. - As of November 28th, the CTD net basis of the 2603 contracts of treasury bond futures of all tenors increased overall, with a decline in TL. The CTD net bases of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were - 0.01, - 0.03, - 0.01, and - 0.14 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRRs corresponding to the CTDs of the 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year were 1.51%, 1.57%, 1.49%, and 1.84% respectively. Except for TL, all declined. The overall IRR has declined to a low level, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies needs to wait [19]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts increased overall this week [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Important news: Public funds are "betting" on dividend assets in the second half of the year; the total scale of public funds is approaching 37 trillion yuan; QDII is globally deploying AI marketing, and the US stock logic is mapped to Hong Kong stock funds [2]. - Market review: During the week of 20251124 - 20251128, the major broad - based indices in the A - share market showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60, up 1.40%. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4526.66, up 1.64%. The CSI 500 Index closed at 7031.55, up 3.14%. The CSI 800 Index closed at 4945.49, up 2.04%. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7334.21, up 3.77%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3052.59, up 4.54%. Most overseas indices also showed an upward trend. The Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% this week, the Canadian S&P/TSX Composite rose 4.05%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.77% [2][17]. - Fund market review: Most active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, and the median interval return rate of active equity funds was 3.03%. In terms of different sectors, technology and pharmaceutical theme funds performed outstandingly, with median interval return rates of 5.14% and 3.87% respectively [2][24]. - ETF fund statistics: Performance: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance this week were technology (4.64%), international broad - based (3.55%), and A - share broad - based (3.19%) theme ETFs. Fund flow: There were 339 ETFs with net capital inflows and 653 ETFs with net capital outflows this week. By category, the categories with the highest capital inflows were strategy style (39.68 billion yuan), commodity futures (18.76 billion yuan), and consumption (7.55 billion yuan) theme ETFs. The categories with the highest capital outflows were A - share broad - based (210.66 billion yuan), technology (112.68 billion yuan), and financial real estate (28.65 billion yuan) theme ETFs [2][29]. - Fund market dynamics: Fund manager changes: 43 public funds had new fund managers appointed this week, involving 36 fund managers from 23 fund management companies. Newly established funds this week: A total of 48 public funds were newly established this week, with a combined issuance share of 178.59 billion shares. Newly issued funds this week: A total of 45 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time this week, with the largest number being passive index funds, at 15. Pending issuance funds: As of Sunday, November 30, 2025, there were 57 public funds pending issuance [2][38][42]. - Equity fund issuance tracking: The issuance scale of equity funds reached 95.24 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 44.75 billion yuan compared with last week. Currently, there are still 263 newly issued funds in the position - building period, of which it is estimated that 33.84% have a position - building ratio of less than 5%, and it is estimated that there is still 760.32 billion yuan of funds from newly issued funds that have not been invested. It is expected that these funds will bring significant incremental funds to industries such as electronics, communications, and machinery [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - The pilot program for commercial real estate REITs has been officially launched, and the REITs market is expanding in high - quality. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a notice on November 28, 2025, and related regulations were clarified [7]. - The total scale of public funds is approaching 37 trillion yuan, reaching a new high for seven consecutive months. As of the end of October, the total scale of public funds reached 36.96 trillion yuan. In October, the share and scale of public funds both increased compared with September. Investors were most enthusiastic about subscribing to stock, QDII, and money - market funds, while bond, hybrid, and closed - end funds faced net redemptions [8]. - The regulatory authorities issued new requirements, including establishing and improving the settlement mechanism for fund sales and settlement funds [8]. 1.2 Product Hotspots - Public funds are "betting" on dividend assets in the second half of the year. As of November 27, 49 dividend funds have been reported in the second half of this year, a significant increase from 37 in the first half. As of November 25, 7 dividend - themed funds were established in November, and the total scale of 35 newly established dividend funds in the second half of the year reached 176.85 billion yuan, compared with 55.65 billion yuan in the first half [10]. - The first batch of 7双创 artificial intelligence ETFs are scheduled for launch. On November 28, 7 funds from companies such as E Fund and Huatai - Peregrine Fund will be launched, with different fundraising periods and limits [11][12]. - The first batch of science - innovation and entrepreneurship robot ETFs have been submitted. From November 24 to 26, 7 products from multiple fund companies were submitted, tracking the CSI Science - Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robot Index [13]. - The number of newly established index - enhanced funds this year has increased by more than 400% year - on - year. As of November 27, 160 index - enhanced funds were newly established, with a total fundraising amount of over 888.47 billion yuan. Most of the index - enhanced products are based on broad - based indices [14]. 1.3 Overseas/Overseas Markets - QDII is globally deploying AI marketing, and the US stock logic is mapped to Hong Kong stock funds. Many funds are embracing the AI marketing track due to risk - aversion needs. Some AI marketing stocks in the US and Hong Kong have shown significant performance [14][15][16]. - The overseas expansion of ETFs has achieved a new breakthrough. The depositary receipt of Invesco Great Wall ChiNext 50 ETF was listed in Thailand on November 25, 2025 [16]. 2. Market Review - During the week of 20251124 - 20251128, major A - share broad - based indices showed an upward trend, and most overseas indices also rose. The communication and electronics industries had the highest increases among the primary industries of CITIC [17][19]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the past week, technology and pharmaceutical theme funds performed outstandingly, with average interval returns of 5.08% and 3.95% respectively. In the past three months, cycle and manufacturing theme funds led the way [23]. - Most active equity funds achieved positive returns this week, with a median interval return rate of 3.03%. Technology and pharmaceutical theme funds had median interval return rates of 5.14% and 3.87% respectively [24]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top - performing active equity fund this week was the Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Enjoy Life Fund, with an interval return rate of 12.13%. The top - five funds in each sector are also listed [27][28]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - In terms of the average interval return rate this week, the top three ETF categories were technology, international broad - based, and A - share broad - based theme ETFs. In the past month, the top three were commodity futures, bond, and consumption theme ETFs [29]. 4.2 ETF Fund Flow Statistics - This week, the ETF categories with the highest net capital inflows were strategy style, commodity futures, and consumption, while the A - share broad - based category had the highest net capital outflows. In the past month, technology, bond, and strategy style ETFs had the highest net capital inflows, and the cycle category had the highest net capital outflows [32]. - There were 339 ETFs with net capital inflows and 653 ETFs with net capital outflows this week. The top three ETFs with net capital inflows were Huaxia Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Benchmark Market - Making Treasury Bond ETF, Dacheng CSI AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, and Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF. The top three with net capital outflows were E Fund ChiNext ETF, Southern CSI 500 ETF, and Huaxia Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF [34]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium/Discount Statistics - As of November 28, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Huatai - Peregrine CSI Korea Exchange Korea - China Semiconductor ETF, Huaan Mitsubishi UFJ Nikkei 225 ETF, and Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF. The top three in terms of discount rate were E Fund Shanghai 580 ETF, Guotai CSI 2000 ETF, and Zheshang Huijin CSI Phoenix 50 ETF [35]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - 43 public funds had new fund managers appointed this week, involving 36 fund managers from 23 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies in terms of the number of funds with new managers were E Fund, GF Fund, and Orient Fund [38]. - 49 public funds had fund managers leave this week, involving 37 fund managers from 20 fund management companies. The top three fund management companies in terms of the number of funds with departing managers were E Fund, Dacheng Fund, and Tianhong Fund [39]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds This Week - A total of 48 public funds were newly established this week, with a combined issuance share of 178.59 billion shares. The fund type with the largest number was partial - stock hybrid funds, and the type with the largest combined issuance share was passive index funds [42].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month below the threshold line[4] - The new orders index and finished goods inventory index for November are 49.2% and 47.3%, respectively, with new orders increasing by 0.4 percentage points and finished goods inventory decreasing by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The "production momentum" index (new orders - finished goods inventory) is at 1.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production momentum[5] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - Manufacturing firms are actively reducing inventory, with the finished goods inventory index significantly below seasonal levels[15] - The raw material purchase price index is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, indicating a widening price gap that compresses profit margins[20] - The "raw material purchase price - factory price" gap is 5.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, further squeezing profit margins for enterprises[20] Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The new export orders index is at 47.6%, showing a recovery of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, although still below the threshold line[9] - The recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has reduced trade friction, contributing to improved export conditions[9] - The forecast for U.S. holiday shopping indicates a record participation of 187 million people, which may positively impact demand for exports[9] Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Risks - Small enterprises show the fastest recovery, with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, reaching the highest level in five years[28] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a contraction in the sector[37] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound opportunity following a period of panic due to tariff impacts [2] - The report highlights a positive performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy was introduced [2] Overall Assessment - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to wait for opportunities to buy on dips. It notes that liquidity-driven adjustments have stabilized, with certain asset classes like TMT and precious metals leading the rebound [3][7] - The report anticipates that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will further bolster market confidence, despite short-term investor caution in domestic sectors like lithium batteries and storage [3][7] Configuration Direction - The report advises a gradual investment strategy based on economic expectations and valuation attractiveness, focusing on quality dividends and cyclical opportunities in sectors such as real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [4][9] - It identifies four key areas for medium-term investment: technology (AI trends), high-end manufacturing (global investment cycle), consumer (high-quality overseas profits), and resource commodities (supply-side dynamics) [4][9] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks across various sectors, including TCL Electronics, Action Education, Anjuke Food, Petty Co., Chengda Pharmaceutical, Haiguang Information, Lixing Co., Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, and China Resources Mixc Living [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-based low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3] Market Index Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.56%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.64%, with most indices closing in the green [5][8] - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 15.0% year-to-date, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has risen by 24.6%, resulting in an excess return of 9.5% [5][19] - The CSI 500 Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 22.8%, with its enhanced portfolio up by 28.9%, yielding an excess return of 6.1% [5][24] - The CSI A500 Index has risen by 18.1% year-to-date, with its enhanced portfolio up by 26.5%, resulting in an excess return of 8.5% [5][30] - The CSI 1000 Index has increased by 23.1% year-to-date, while its enhanced portfolio has risen by 36.7%, yielding an excess return of 13.6% [5][36] Index Enhancement Fund Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the CSI 300 index enhancement fund reported an excess return range from -1.64% to 1.93%, with a median of 0.12% [11][12] - The CSI 500 index enhancement fund showed an excess return range from -2.32% to 0.77%, with a median of -0.10% [11][12] - The CSI 1000 index enhancement fund reported an excess return range from -0.78% to 1.28%, with a median of 0.20% [11][12] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report outlines the construction of enhanced portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices using deep learning frameworks, with weekly rebalancing and a maximum weekly turnover rate of 10% [15] - The alpha signals are derived from a multi-source feature set and stacked multi-model strategies, while risk signals are identified using neural networks [15] CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 24.6%, compared to the CSI 300's 15.0%, resulting in an excess return of 9.5% [19][20] CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.9%, compared to the CSI 500's 22.8%, resulting in an excess return of 6.1% [24][25] CSI A500 Enhanced Portfolio - The CSI A500 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 26.5%, compared to the CSI A500's 18.1%, resulting in an excess return of 8.5% [30][33] CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - The CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 36.7%, compared to the CSI 1000's 23.1%, resulting in an excess return of 13.6% [36][37]