规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.27 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 162.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.98 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.04 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com | 联系人 王汉学 | | --- | | wanghx01@ctsec.com | 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 三大决策"省际班车"+"有偿派费"+"股份改革"实现弯道超车。 公司凭借对加盟快递商业本质洞察开通省际班车、推行有偿派费、进行股份制 改革，最终在后期实现弯道超车，2016 年成为加盟制快递龙头。 ❖ 加盟快递行业龙头，业绩增长相对稳健。公司市占率排名在通达系中居首， 2025Q3 市占率 19.4%，较 2025H ...

证券研究报告 宏观点评报告 / 2025.11.27 核心观点 ❖ 工业企业利润增速为何回落：10 月，工业经营量降价升、利润率回落，工 业利润增速的"恶化"，除了利润率的掣肘，与基数也有较大关系。去年"926 "政治局会议后，随着政策的加码，工业生产、消费、物价均有好转，也带动 工业利润边际修复，推高了今年四季度的基数，对同比读数形成拖累。 ❖ 分结构来看： 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 剔除基数，利润仍弱 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com ❖ 上游采矿业仍然是"增利不增收"，与"反内卷"的推进有一定关系。多数采 矿行业营收仍然保持较大幅度的下滑，尤其是煤炭开采和非金属矿采选，10 月营收当月增速为-13.9%和-23.9%，分别较前值下滑 0.3 和 7.9 个百分点。 但采矿业利润率整体较高，近三个月均在所有行业的前列，例如有色采选和 油气开采 10 月利润率分别为 27.6%和 23.7%。在"反内卷"推进的过程中， 上游行业的减产修复了供需格局、提高了销售价格，但同时也影响销售规模。 ...

"IP+大店+体验"，重构零售渠道 名创优品(09896) 证券研究报告 商贸零售 / 公司跟踪研究报告 / 2025.11.27 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 38.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.38 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.50 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.38 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -20% -7% 5% 17% 29% 41% 名创优品 恒生指数 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 数据来源：wind 数据，财通证券研究所（以 2025 年 11 月 26 日收盘价计算） 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 场景化+策展式大店重构消费体验。乐园系大店凭借 IP 沉浸式体验拉升品 牌价值，涵盖三大核心店态。1）MINISO LAND：门店面积 1000-2000 ㎡， IP 产品占比 70- 80%。以 "城市 IP 沉 ...

25Q3 财报点评：云业务再提速，闪购减亏如期 阿里巴巴-W(09988) 证券研究报告 互联网电商 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.26 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-25 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 157.80 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 190.89 | | 每股净资产(元) | 53.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 190.89 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -6% 20% 47% 73% 99% 126% 阿里巴巴-W 恒生指数 分析师 郝艳辉 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080001 haoyh@ctsec.com 分析师 罗婉琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090005 luowq@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《公司深度报告：AI 时代下的商业重构》 2025-10-29 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 202 ...

汽车 Robotaxi 行业更新报告 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 / 2025.11.26 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 汽车 沪深300 分析师 吴晓飞 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 联系人 王宁 wangning01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《机器人赛道蓝海可期，2026 年有望成 为量产元年》 2025-11-25 2. 《Robotaxi 行业专题报告》 2025- 11-17 3. 《机器人+智驾双驱动，中高端市场国产 替代加速》 2025-09-20 国内厂商收入同比高增，海外厂商加快拓城 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ⚫ 公司评级 ❖ 小马智行在广州单车盈利转正，将提前实现千台目标：小马智行前三季 度收入 6088 万美元，其中 Robotaxi 收入 995 万美元，同比+112%；三季 度收入 2544 万美元，Robotaxi 收入 669 万美元，同比+89%，环比+339%。 小马智行 Robotaxi 在广州实现城市级单车盈利转正，截至 2025 年 ...

估值有支撑，关注"更高阶"低估 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.26 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《城投 2026，风偏分化？》 2025- 11-25 2. 《2026 年度策略：经济 K 型复苏，股债 K 型交易》 2025-11-24 3. 《信用 | 年末或有一定波动 》 2025- 11-23 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 联系人 柳婧舒 liujs@ctsec.com ❖ 2026 推动转债走强的"固收资产荒"以及"权益高景气"或延续。一 方面，转债整体股性处于历史高点。基于我们 2026 年年度策略的观点，我们 认为 2026 年股债双牛依然可以期待，权益有较大的想象空间，强权益或成为 2026 年转债表现最重要的支撑。另一方面，结合长端利率保持低 ...

商业航天司设立，助力产业资源战略统筹 国防军工 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.11.25 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% -3% 5% 13% 21% 29% 国防军工 沪深300 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨博星 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060005 yangbx@ctsec.com 联系人 任子悦 renzy01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《福建舰正式入列，太空算力开启航天新 叙事》 2025-11-12 2. 《国防军工 2025 年三季报总结》 2025-11-05 3. 《载人任务发射成功，低空基建迎政策红 利期》 2025-11-04 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 国防军工行业行情回顾：近一周(2025/11/15-2025/11/22)国防军工行业 指数涨跌幅(-1.72%)在申万一级行业中排名第 4/31；近一月(2025/10/22- 2025/11/22)国防军工行业指数涨跌幅(-3.82%)在申万一级行业中排名第 21/31；近一年(20 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the humanoid robot industry, suggesting it is a promising investment opportunity with significant growth potential in the coming years [1]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see mass production starting in 2026, with projected output levels of 50,000 to 100,000 units [2][9]. - The report highlights that the first wave of market momentum was driven by Elon Musk's announcement regarding production targets, while the second wave was influenced by a performance at the Spring Festival Gala [2][10]. - The overall market size for humanoid robots could reach 140 billion yuan if large-scale production of 1 million units is achieved, with an estimated cost of 140,000 yuan per unit [3][19]. - The industrialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with major companies like Unitree Technology and UBTECH Robotics securing significant orders and preparing for IPOs [4][34]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Market Review and Outlook - The report reviews the 2025 market performance, noting two key phases of growth driven by high-profile announcements and events [2][9]. - Future catalysts include the release of Tesla's Optimus Generation 3 and the anticipated IPOs of domestic companies [10][22]. Humanoid Robot Price and Volume Analysis - The report estimates that the cost structure of humanoid robots will see a breakdown with significant portions attributed to linear and rotational actuators [19][20]. - The market is expected to grow substantially with mass production, indicating a clear path for industrialization [22]. Acceleration of Humanoid Robot Industrialization - Major players in the industry are ramping up production capabilities and securing large orders, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][29][31]. - The report identifies three categories of domestic players: established robot manufacturers, automotive companies, and internet giants, each leveraging their strengths in the humanoid robot space [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong order visibility and significant value in the supply chain, such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [5][38]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring core component suppliers that have secured orders or are undervalued [5][38].

灯塔引领品质房企，精益求精笃行向上 建发国际集团(01908) 证券研究报告 房地产开发 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.24 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 16.95 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.40 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.40 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% -4% 12% 28% 44% 60% 建发国际集团 恒生指数 房地产开发 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical MNC supply chain has extremely high entry barriers, requiring years for supplier certification through cross-departmental audits in technology, quality, EHS, and compliance. Once included in the qualified supplier list, a strong lock-in effect is formed, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the existing supply structure even if they meet technical standards, thus demonstrating a strong first-mover advantage [4][7]. - MNCs demand far more than conventional quality compliance, emphasizing full-process controllability and risk management capabilities. Compliance with guidelines such as EU GMP and ICHQ is required, along with the establishment of traceability systems and safety stock. Any process changes or relocation of production sites must undergo strict and time-consuming certification [4][7]. - In procurement decisions, MNCs are relatively insensitive to price factors, prioritizing the integrity of the supply chain over cost. For MNCs, API costs represent only a small portion of their terminal formulation sales, leading them to pay a premium for stable, traceable, and zero major quality incident supply capabilities, viewing supply chain resilience as a core competitive advantage rather than a cost item. Thus, entering the MNC supply chain often means effectively avoiding "price internalization" [4][7]. - Investment recommendations include innovative drug and device companies such as Furuya Co., Aonlikang, Shutaishen, Weichuang Bio, and others. From the perspective of CXO and raw materials, companies like WuXi AppTec, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Chengda Pharmaceutical, and others are suggested for attention [4][7]. Market Performance Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the TTM-PE of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 48.84 times, which is 100% higher than the historical lowest PE valuation of 24.38 times on January 3, 2019. The premium rate relative to the CSI 300 is 252%, exceeding the historical lowest valuation premium of 124% on February 6, 2018, by 128 percentage points, and is 11 percentage points higher than the average valuation premium rate of 241% over the past decade [8][12]. - From November 17 to November 21, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 6.88%, ranking 22nd among 27 sub-industries. The chemical raw materials sector saw the largest decline at -8.60% [12][15]. Industry Dynamics - Pfizer's Class 1 new drug, Matacizumab, was approved for marketing on November 21, 2025, for the routine prevention and treatment of bleeding in patients with severe hemophilia A or B [20]. - Boehringer Ingelheim's Class 1 new drug, BI764198, was proposed for inclusion as a breakthrough therapy on November 18, 2025, targeting primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis [21]. - The PD-1 inhibitor H drug, Surulutumab, developed by Fuhong Hanlin, was officially included as a breakthrough therapy on November 20, 2025, for gastric cancer treatment [22]. - On November 17, 2025, FDA approved the biosimilar of Tysabri, developed by Sandoz, for multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease [23].