进博会签署战略合作，续写共赢发展新篇章 建发股份(600153) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.06 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-06 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.16 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 每股净资产(元) | 19.21 | | 总股本(亿股) | 29.00 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -13% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 建发股份 沪深300 上证指数 物流 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《受高基数影响，十月销售同比下行》 2025-11-01 2. 《联发及美凯龙拖累，供应链做强核心主 业》 2025-10-30 3. 《销售投资表现强势，灯塔项目决胜未 来》 2025-10-02 核心观点 | 盈利预 ...

与浙江荣泰强强联合，加码机器人丝杆滚动体 力星股份(300421) 证券研究报告 通用设备 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.06 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,002 | 1,045 | 1,174 | 1,379 | 1,718 | | 收入增长率(%) | 2.1 | 4.3 | 12.4 | 17.4 | 24.6 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 60 | 55 | 90 | 131 | 175 | | 净利润增长率(%) | -3.9 | -7.8 | 62.1 | 45.9 | 33.8 | | EPS(元) | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.59 | | PE | 63.4 | 59.6 | 78.8 | 54.0 | 40.3 | | ROE(%) | 4.9 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 10. ...

2025 年 12 月核心宽基指数成分股调整预测 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《中观配置月报 2511：小盘成长风格继 续占优》 2025-11-02 2. 《指增组合本周走势分化》 2025-11- 01 3. 《基于宏观数据的资产配置与风格行业 轮动体系》 2025-10-29 证券研究报告 金融工程专题报告 / 2025.11.06 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 引言：中证指数有限公司会在每年 6 月和 12 月对核心宽基指数成分股进行 定期调整。根据指数编制规则，我们对沪深 300、中证 500 指数这 2 只核心 宽基指数成分股的调整名单进行预测。 ❖ 沪深 300 指数：根据沪深 300 指数编制规则，我们预测 2025 年 12 月将 调入上海电气、指南针以及国联民生等 12 只股票，将调出一汽解放、福莱特 以及浙商银行等 12 只股票。 ❖ 中证 500 指数：根据中证 500 指数编制规则，我们 ...

杠杆久期双降，做多空间充足 ——2025 年三季度基金季报分析 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.05 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《混基、债基分化加剧——3Q25 公募转 债持仓》 2025-11-04 2. 《宏观 | 10 月 数 据 能否 止 跌 ？ 》 2025-11-03 3. 《信用 | 还能继续乐观吗？》 2025- 11-02 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com ❖ 三季度债基规模和持债规模大规模缩量，主要影响因素还是股债跷跷板，此 外还有基金销售新规的负面冲击。相应地，债基普遍调降杠杆和久期，减配 利率债，更倾向于票息策略，其中中长期纯债基金最为明显。 ❖ 展望未来，一方面是四季度债市行情回归，债券型基金规模有望企稳，另一 方面，由于三季度末基金久期降至年内低位，后续做多空间充足，伴随基金 销售新规可能即将落地，利空出尽后将成为债市行情的主要推动力量， ...

公司订单饱满，定增加速新产品布局 华丰科技(688629) 证券研究报告 军工电子Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.11.05 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-05 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 73.85 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.82 | | 每股净资产(元) | 3.65 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.61 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% 22% 62% 103% 144% 184% 华丰科技 沪深300 上证指数 军工电子Ⅱ 相关报告 1. 《Q2 业绩创新高，高速线模组加速放量》 2025-09-05 2. 《连接器行业老兵，AI 高速互联领军人》 2025-04-24 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 904 | 1,092 | 2,409 | 4,385 | 5,745 | | 收入增长率(%) ...

CW 光源驱动业绩高增，新产品持续布局迭代 源杰科技(688498) 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-05 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 529.49 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.60 | | 每股净资产(元) | 25.27 | | 总股本(亿股) | 0.86 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -41% 15% 71% 127% 184% 240% 源杰科技 沪深300 上证指数 半导体 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 分析师 朱陈星 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020002 zhucx@ctsec.com 证券研究报告 半导体 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.05 相关报告 1. 《CW 光源加速上量，国内外客户持续导 入》 2025-09-04 2. 《国产领先光芯片厂商，高端市场蓄势待 发》 2024-12-31 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 202 ...

业绩快速增长，高端工艺卡位奠定长期竞争力 兴森科技(002436) 证券研究报告 元件 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.05 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-11-05 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 21.66 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 15.10 | | 每股净资产(元) | 3.17 | | 总股本(亿股) | 17.00 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -17% 9% 34% 60% 86% 112% 兴森科技 沪深300 上证指数 元件 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 分析师 朱陈星 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020002 zhucx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PCB 稳健增长，IC 载板海内外客户快 速拓展》 2025-09-05 2. 《HDI 稳定增长 FCBGA 小批量供应》 2024-10-08 3. 《BT 载板扭亏为盈，FCBGA 载板进展 顺利》 2023-11-12 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- ...

单季度营收创新高，在手订单持续转化 芯原股份(688521) 证券研究报告 半导体 / 公司点评 / 2025.11.05 | | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2025-11-04 | | 收盘价(元) | 153.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.01 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.76 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.26 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% 67% 146% 225% 303% 382% 芯原股份 沪深300 上证指数 半导体 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,338 | 2,322 | 3,535 | 4,802 | 6,393 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has a clear industry trend and maintains expectations for rapid growth in the future, driven by strong demand for high-performance computing and storage solutions [7] - The company reported a revenue of 3.141 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.46%, and a net profit of 780 million yuan, up 121.65% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned well in the market with its RK 182X series products, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming quarters [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2.135 billion yuan - 2024: 3.136 billion yuan - 2025: 4.374 billion yuan - 2026: 5.519 billion yuan - 2027: 6.953 billion yuan - The revenue growth rates are projected at 5.2% for 2023, 46.9% for 2024, 39.5% for 2025, 26.2% for 2026, and 26.0% for 2027 [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 135 million yuan - 2024: 595 million yuan - 2025: 1.071 billion yuan - 2026: 1.411 billion yuan - 2027: 1.842 billion yuan - The net profit growth rates are projected at -54.6% for 2023, 341.0% for 2024, 80.1% for 2025, 31.7% for 2026, and 30.5% for 2027 [6][8] - The company’s PE ratios are expected to decrease from 198.1 in 2023 to 39.9 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 977 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 15 million yuan, compared to a profit of 1 million yuan in the same period last year [7] - The company has seen significant growth in new business areas such as AI-based AOI detection, PCB, and semiconductor sectors, with new orders signed amounting to 1.917 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.97% [7] - High R&D investment over the past three years has been around 15% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and potential future growth in semiconductor and robotics sectors [7] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 1.817 billion yuan, 2.178 billion yuan, and 2.522 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 160 million yuan, 242 million yuan, and 271 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,648 million yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7%, followed by a decline of 2.4% in 2024, and a recovery with a growth of 13.0% in 2025 [6] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 215 million yuan, with a significant drop to 125 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 160 million yuan in 2025 [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.12 yuan for 2023, decreasing to 0.65 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 0.83 yuan in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 33.4 in 2023, increasing to 66.6 in 2024, and then decreasing to 65.6 in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 9%, while the benchmark index (CSI 300) has increased by 8% [4]