投资评级:买入(首次) 核心观点 中式烟火气，性价比新徽菜龙头进军千店 小菜园(00999) 证券研究报告 酒店餐饮 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.20 | 基本数据 | 2025-11-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.77 | | 每股净资产(元) | 2.02 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.77 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -15% -4% 7% 17% 28% 38% 小菜园 恒生指数 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 周诗琪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060006 zhousq@ctsec.com 相关报告 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 4,549 | 5,210 | 6,080 | 7,603 | 9, ...

证券研究报告 牛市资金面面观 分析师：徐陈翼 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：熊宇翔 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 3 报告日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 1 9 日 ——牛市宝典系列一 核心观点 历轮牛市主要增量资金回顾： A股每轮上行行情增量资金均在万亿以上，大级别行情3万亿以上，本轮仍有增量空间。A股历轮牛市中，公募、险资、外资、杠杆资金四大 主体，在行情从低位上行至高点期间的增量资金贡献均在万亿元级别，其中2014-2015年和2020-2021年两轮资金增量高达3万亿元以上。本轮自去年9月以来的牛市中， 杠杆资金与险资贡献了主要增量，总量上看当前增量分别占2015、2021年两轮行情的87%、73%。 本轮行情各主体增量： 2、险资：今年以来，金融监管总局通过上调保险资金权益类资产投资比例的上限、调降保险公司股票投资风险因子等具体措施，直接为险资加大权益投资铺平道路。截 至2025Q3，险资在股票与证券投资上的运用余额较2024Q3增长近1.5万亿元，权益仓位为2015Q2以来最高。展望明年，仍有望贡献重要增量。 风 ...

持续加强供应链优化，盈利能力提升 家家悦(603708) 证券研究报告 一般零售 / 公司跟踪研究报告 / 2025.11.18 -9% 1% 10% 20% 30% 40% 家家悦 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《毛利率短期承压，门店调改前景可期》 2025-04-26 2. 《毛利率提升，门店调整导致收入承压》 2025-04-26 3. 《收入表现稳健，新业态稳步扩张》 2024-08-29 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 17,763 | 18,256 | 18,271 | 18,763 | 19,484 | | 收入增长率(%) | -2.3 | 2.8 | 0.1 | ...

分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 万琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090007 wanqi@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《假期、基数、贸易摩擦拖累经济增长》 2025-11-16 2. 《美联储官员放鹰——全球经济观察第 20 期》 2025-11-15 3. 《基数回升拖累 M1 增速》 2025-11- 14 证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2025.11.18 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ "三保"压力触发财政加码 ❖ 事件：11 月 17 日财政部公布 2025 年 1-10 月财政收支情况。1-10 月， 全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 2%。全国政府性基金预算收入同比下降 2.8%，全国政府性基金预算支出同 比增长 15.4%。 ❖ 整体来看，10 月财政数据支出端压力较为明显，收入端则呈分化态势： 税收收入带动第一本账收入同比上行，第二本账则受土地出让收入的明显拖 累，同比大幅回落。一则，在税收征管加强、PPI 降幅收窄及传统缴税大月影 响下，税收收入同比延续高 ...

投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% -3% 4% 11% 17% 24% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《9 月社零同比+3%，态势良好》 2025-10-21 2. 《即时零售行业观点更新 》 2025- 10-09 3. 《8 月社零同比+3.4%，黄金珠宝景气度 高企》 2025-09-22 餐饮增速转正，汽车、石油拖累社零大盘 商贸零售 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2025.11.17 ❖ 零售总额：2025 年 10 月社零 46291 亿，名义同比+2.9%，小超预期；除 汽车以外的消费品零售额同比+4.0%。景气度环比回落，受家电、汽车、石 油拖累严重，可选消费受双节和双十一驱动相对亮眼。1~10 月社会消费品零 售总额 412169 亿，名义同比+4.3%，除汽车外同比+4.9%。 ❖ 10 月限额以上商品跑输大盘，餐饮增速和大盘基本一致，环比显著修复。按 消费类型分， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-based low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3] Market Index Performance - As of November 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.40%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.08%, indicating a turbulent market with most indices declining [5][8] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI 300 Index has risen by 17.6%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has increased by 28.5%, yielding an excess return of 10.9% [20] - The CSI 500 Index has increased by 26.4% year-to-date, with its enhanced portfolio up by 35.0%, resulting in an excess return of 8.6% [25] - The CSI 1000 Index has risen by 25.9% this year, while its enhanced portfolio has surged by 41.7%, achieving an excess return of 15.8% [31] Index Enhancement Fund Performance - For the week ending November 14, 2025, the CSI 300 enhanced fund had an excess return ranging from -1.98% to 1.21%, with a median of 0.24% [12][13] - The CSI 500 enhanced fund's excess return ranged from -0.59% to 2.09%, with a median of 0.32% [12][13] - The CSI 1000 enhanced fund showed an excess return between -0.92% and 1.86%, with a median of 0.03% [12][13] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report outlines the construction of enhanced portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices using deep learning frameworks, with weekly rebalancing and a maximum turnover rate of 10% [16] - The alpha signals are derived from a multi-source feature set and stacked multi-model strategies, while risk signals are identified using neural networks [16] CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio Performance - As of November 14, 2025, the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.5%, compared to the CSI 300's 17.6%, resulting in an excess return of 10.9% [20][21] CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio Performance - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio has recorded a year-to-date return of 35.0%, outperforming the CSI 500's 26.4% return, leading to an excess return of 8.6% [25][26] CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio Performance - The CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio has increased by 41.7% year-to-date, significantly surpassing the CSI 1000's 25.9% return, resulting in an excess return of 15.8% [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, real - estate sales remained weak. The real - estate market is in a situation of stock competition, with stable prices but falling volumes in the new - home market and trading volume for price in the second - hand home market. Next year may face concentrated selling of second - hand new homes due to the "5 - year resale restriction policy" [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased. Most industrial production start - up rates declined, with only the start - up rate of polyester filament rising slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile consumption was below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork and vegetable prices declined, while oil prices rose [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI declined this week [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Real - Estate Sales - From November 7th to November 13th, the new - home sales area increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The new - home sales of cities at all levels were stronger than the previous period to varying degrees, but still significantly weaker than the same period last year. Among key cities, Shanghai and Hangzhou had year - on - year increases, while others mostly declined [7]. - From November 7th to November 13th, second - hand home sales increased month - on - month but declined significantly year - on - year. Among key cities, the month - on - month sales of all key cities were stronger than the previous period, and the year - on - year decline of Beijing and Hangzhou narrowed, while others widened [7]. 3.2 Investment - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased [36]. 3.3 Production - This week, most start - up rates declined. The start - up rates of petroleum asphalt, steel - mill blast furnaces, and coking enterprises decreased, as did the start - up rates of automobile tires and PTA. The start - up rate of polyester filament increased slightly [44]. 3.4 Consumption - Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile sales were below the seasonal level [53]. 3.5 Exports - This week, the SCFI index, BDI index, port cargo throughput, and CRB spot index all declined [60]. 3.6 Prices - Pork and vegetable prices declined slightly, while oil and rebar prices increased slightly [65].

Financial Data Overview - In October, new social financing (社融) was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan[4] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.7% previously, a decline of 0.2 percentage points[4] - M2 growth was 8.2% year-on-year, also down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[4] - M1 growth was 6.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the prior value[4] Loan Performance - New RMB loans in October totaled 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan[6] - Corporate loans decreased primarily due to medium and long-term loans, which saw a net repayment of 40 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 320 billion yuan[6] - New corporate loans amounted to 350 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan, while short-term loans remained stable compared to last year[7] Policy Impact - The effects of policy financial tools are beginning to show, with new entrusted loans increasing by 1,653 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 1,872 billion yuan[14] - However, the impact on corporate credit from these tools has not yet materialized, primarily due to the seasonal nature of October being a weak month for corporate loans[14] Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits followed a seasonal pattern, decreasing at the end of the quarter and rebounding at the beginning, with an increase of 18,500 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7,700 billion yuan, the highest level in five years[20] - The shift of funds back into wealth management products in October contributed to the increase in non-bank deposits[21] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to focus on the health of banks rather than strict credit targets, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated early next year[24][26] - Risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not meet expectations, uncertainties in wealth management behaviors, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company, Inspur Digital Enterprise, is positioned as a leading ERP provider in China, benefiting from the trends of domestic substitution, cloud transformation, and AI integration [8][59]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 85.5 billion, 90.7 billion, and 98.8 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 5.3 billion, 6.3 billion, and 7.5 billion RMB [8][59]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the central state-owned enterprise market, with over 80% of its revenue coming from this sector [66]. Company Overview - Inspur Digital Enterprise, controlled by Shandong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, has transitioned from a computer component distributor to a software service provider focusing on cloud ERP solutions [12][44]. - The company has developed a product portfolio centered around cloud ERP, with significant revenue growth driven by its cloud services and management software [21][8]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue growth has been volatile, with cloud services being the main driver of consistent growth, achieving a CAGR of 31.8% from 2020 to 2024 [21][8]. - The cloud service revenue is expected to exceed 50% of total revenue by 2024, reflecting a significant shift towards cloud-based solutions [21][26]. - The company has improved its profitability, with operating profit margins reaching 8.0% and net profit margins at 4.7% in 2024 [21][8]. Industry Overview - The Chinese ERP software market is projected to grow steadily, with a market size of approximately 485 billion RMB in 2023, driven by domestic substitution and increasing IT spending [48][59]. - The market is currently dominated by foreign companies, but domestic players like Inspur are gaining ground due to local adaptation and compliance with national policies [54][59]. - The trend towards cloud deployment is expected to continue, with increasing adoption of SaaS products among small and medium enterprises [60][62]. Company Strategy - The company has implemented a clear cloud strategy, focusing on different customer segments with tailored products such as iGIX for large enterprises and GS Cloud for medium-sized businesses [64][66]. - The AI First strategy initiated in 2023 aims to enhance the company's product offerings by integrating AI capabilities into its ERP solutions, potentially increasing customer value [67][66].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD Health (06618) for the first time [2]. Core Insights - JD Health aims to build a comprehensive health management platform centered on pharmaceutical and health product supply, leveraging its supply chain and logistics capabilities to become the largest pharmaceutical retail channel in China [8]. - The opening of online medical insurance purchasing rights is seen as a significant short-term catalyst for the industry, with expectations of increased online drug sales due to policy support [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing online penetration of pharmaceutical products and the opening of online medical insurance payment permissions, with projected revenues of 70.9 billion, 82.4 billion, and 94.2 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - JD Health, established in 2018, is a subsidiary of JD Group focused on healthcare, aiming to create a digital-driven health management platform covering the entire lifecycle of users [11]. - The company has a strong market position, with over 15,000 partnered pharmacies and a presence in more than 490 cities across China [11][29]. Pharmaceutical E-commerce Business - The report highlights the importance of the opening of online medical insurance purchasing rights and the increasing online penetration of pharmaceutical sales as key growth drivers [23]. - JD Health's strategy includes a combination of self-operated, platform-based, and instant retail channels to enhance service capabilities and meet urgent medication needs [26][29]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for JD Health are set at 70.9 billion, 82.4 billion, and 94.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 5.7 billion, 6.2 billion, and 7.2 billion RMB [34]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins and a decrease in marketing expenses over time, reflecting operational efficiencies [34]. Management and Shareholder Structure - The management team is experienced, with a stable ownership structure, where JD Jiankang Limited holds 67.16% of the shares, controlled by Liu Qiangdong [13][15].