Group 1: Retail and Service Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the hotel and duty-free sectors, suggesting that the hotel prices have gradually increased since the second half of this year, with a recommendation to focus on hotel stocks such as Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [6][12][17] - Duty-free sales are showing signs of bottoming out, with new policies implemented to expand the range of duty-free products and eligible consumers, leading to a significant increase in sales figures [12][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies, particularly in the context of the ice and snow economy, silver-haired economy, and sports events, recommending investments in companies like Changbai Mountain and Sanchuan Tourism [26][28][29] Group 2: AI Applications in Various Industries - The report discusses the acceleration of AI applications in the education and human resources sectors, with companies like Keri International and Beijing Renli leveraging AI to enhance recruitment efficiency [39][44] - AI's integration into 3D printing and e-commerce is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Huina Technology and Xiaogoods City, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions through full-chain penetration [6][39] - The report notes that AI applications are driving significant changes in operational efficiency and commercial opportunities across various sectors, particularly in human resources [39][44] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with domestic brands showing strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [6][32] - The report identifies key players in the beauty sector, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shanghai Jahwa, while also suggesting a focus on high-growth segments within the industry [6][32] - The medical beauty sector is under pressure but is seeing consolidation and innovation, with recommendations for companies like Jinbo Biological and Kedi-B [6][32] Group 4: Jewelry and Precious Metals - The jewelry sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on overseas expansion as a second growth curve, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-value jewelry products and the impact of new tax regulations on the market dynamics [6][32] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is witnessing a shift, with a focus on leading brands expanding their store counts and product categories, particularly in the tea and dining segments [32][38] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the restaurant industry, noting the resilience of Western fast food and the growth of Chinese casual dining brands [32][38]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Technology sector, indicating a "slow bull" market trend for 2026, driven by improved liquidity and AI advancements [19][29]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown significant volatility since its inception, with a notable recovery in 2025, where it outperformed major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Nasdaq [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of earnings growth as a foundation for index performance, with a projected revenue growth of 13.6% and a non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.7% for 2025 [16][17]. - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in sectors such as AI applications, autonomous technology, and consumer internet, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate earnings upgrades and AI progress [27][33]. Summary by Sections Review and Retrospective: What Happened in 2025? - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a 24% increase in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18% [10]. - Major contributing factors included a favorable liquidity environment due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies and strong earnings from leading companies [19][22]. Industry and Trends: Which Sub-sectors Are Worth Watching? - AI applications are highlighted as a key area of focus, with advancements in technology and commercialization expected to drive growth [33]. - The report also discusses the importance of the gaming sector and the autonomous driving market, indicating a shift towards head-to-head competition in L2+ and L4 technologies [33]. Views and Strategies: What Certainty Opportunities Can Be Seen in 2026? - The report suggests that identifying companies with upward earnings revisions and significant AI developments will be crucial for investment strategies in 2026 [27][29]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index's performance is influenced by both micro and macro factors, with a strong emphasis on the earnings potential of constituent companies [29]. Key Stocks: Structurally Viewing Stocks and Grasping Quality Targets - The report identifies top-performing stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor, JD Health, and Alibaba, which have shown significant price increases due to positive earnings revisions and AI advancements [23][27]. - The focus for 2026 will be on finding stocks with potential for earnings surprises and strong AI progress [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The possibility of a trend - based economic recovery in 2026 is low. To cope with uncertainties, monetary policy still needs to have aggregate - based loosening. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts next year, and the bond market can be optimistic. In the short term, the bond market adjustment may have basically ended, and the bond market pressure in the first quarter of next year may be lower than expected. The bond market interest rate may break through the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Economic Goal - The economic growth target for next year may remain at around 5%, but there are still many old problems and new challenges, and it will be difficult to achieve [6]. Fiscal Policy - Compared with last year, the expression of fiscal policy has weakened. The deficit rate may remain at 4%, with 5 trillion yuan in new special bonds, 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds. Considering macro uncertainties, some new special bonds may be revitalized in the second half of the year. The net financing of government bonds may be about 1.5 trillion yuan more than this year [7]. Local Finance - Changing from "increasing local autonomous financial resources" to "attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties" does not provide more incremental information [8]. Debt Resolution - Debt resolution remains the focus of local work next year. The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to take the initiative to resolve debts, and not allowing illegal new implicit debts, and also requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises [10]. Monetary Policy - The tone of monetary policy is still "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier for reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has changed from "opportunistically" to "flexibly and efficiently". The central bank may not conduct aggregate - based loosening based on financial data changes but anchor economic growth, inflation, and boosting social confidence. There may be structural policies to support key areas. The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, one at the beginning of next year [11]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The expression of expanding domestic demand has weakened. Although it mentions "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", the "optimization - based" means seem insufficient. "Continuing to play the role of new policy - based tools" and "deeply promoting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries" may be important measures next year [12]. Real Estate - In the arrangement of key work, the priority of real estate has dropped, and the expression has also weakened. The urgency of real - estate work has decreased [13]. Anti - Involution - Anti - involution continues to be steadily promoted. It emphasizes that anti - involution needs to be based on the construction of a national unified market. Regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies may reduce duplicate production capacity initiated by local governments, but demand will also be affected, and price recovery may face certain resistance [14]. Reform of Small and Medium - sized Financial Institutions - The reform of small and medium - sized financial institutions will accelerate mergers. The trend of large institutions merging small and medium - sized ones is clear. More than 350 small and medium - sized banks have exited the market this year, and state - owned large banks have participated in integration activities [15]. Policy Rhythm - The demand for policies to be implemented earlier has weakened, and the possibility of a good start in the first quarter of next year needs further observation [16].

Group 1: Automotive Market Overview - In November, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, aligning with the initial forecast of a "low start, medium growth, and stable end" trend for the year [5][11][20] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 21.483 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The growth rate fluctuated throughout the year, with a notable slowdown in the fourth quarter due to high base effects from the previous year [5][11][20] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has been a significant driver for growth, with over 11.2 million applications for subsidies by the end of October, although the average daily subsidy scale dropped to 30,000 units in November due to the suspension of subsidies in various regions [5][11][20] Group 2: Intelligent Driving Developments - NVIDIA has officially open-sourced its new Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model, Alpamayo-R1, marking a significant shift in autonomous driving technology from mere behavior imitation to deeper causal reasoning [6][33] - The model's dataset, approximately 100TB in size, has been uploaded to the open-source community, indicating a move towards more accessible high-end autonomous driving models [6][33] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in automotive intelligence and leading software capabilities, including Rui Ming Technology, Dao Tong Technology, Hei Zhi Ma Intelligent, Horizon Robotics, and others [8][39]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, emphasizing the potential for growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly in emerging markets and through the development of new product categories [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The home appliance sector has shown varied performance in 2025, with white goods yielding a total return of +1% but underperforming against the CSI 300 by -19% due to high base effects and market competition [11]. - Small appliances have performed well with a +12% return, indicating a shift from scale expansion to value creation, supported by new subsidy policies [11]. - The components sector has excelled with a +70% return, benefiting from investments in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [11]. Group 2: Domestic and International Sales - Domestic sales have faced pressure due to tightening national subsidies, with expected growth rates for major appliances showing mixed results, while small appliances have fared better [5][38]. - Internationally, emerging markets have outperformed, with a notable recovery in export orders as tariff impacts begin to stabilize [41][42]. Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The report highlights a continuous upgrade in product structure, with an increasing share of high-end products contributing to profit margins [5][44]. - New product categories such as smart glasses, drones, and UV printers are expected to create new growth opportunities, driven by consumer demand for innovative and personalized experiences [5][10]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies as they represent assets with significant growth potential, particularly in the context of favorable U.S. market conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts [5][44]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Haier Smart Home, Hisense, TCL Electronics, and Ecovacs, among others [5][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - FOMC resolution landed as scheduled with a 25 - basis - point rate cut and restarted Treasury bill purchases. There were internal differences among the voting members, but most agreed on labor - market weakness [3]. - The dot plot maintained one benchmark rate cut in 2026, and Powell's speech was dovish. The economic forecast adjusted economic growth and inflation expectations [3]. - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may steepen, and the US dollar will maintain weak oscillations. The Fed's rate cut is beneficial to China's external environment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fed FOMC Meeting Focus 3.1.1 FOMC Resolution: 25bp Rate Cut and Restart of Treasury Bill Purchases - The 2025 December FOMC resolution continued to focus on employment risks, with "extent and timing" reappearing in the statement, indicating a longer assessment of the job market. It restarted the RMP Treasury bill purchase process with an initial monthly amount of $40 billion [6]. - Three voting members opposed the resolution, showing increased internal differences. However, most members agreed on the 25 - basis - point rate cut, indicating a consensus on labor - market weakness [12]. - The market's immediate reaction was mild as it had almost fully priced in the rate cut. The S&P 500 slightly rose, 2 - year Treasury yields declined, 10 - year yields rose, gold prices increased, and the US dollar index oscillated [3][13]. 3.1.2 Dot Plot: One - Time Rate Cuts in 2026 and 2027 - The December 2025 Fed economic forecast showed a moderate economic recovery, with upward - adjusted economic growth expectations and downward - adjusted inflation expectations for this and next year. The unemployment rate forecast remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The median federal funds rate for 2026 - 2027 was 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, with one - time rate cuts expected. The dot - plot differentiation was still obvious [17]. 3.1.3 Press Conference: Current Position Remains Favorable - Powell's speech was dovish. He emphasized the favorable position, prioritized employment over inflation, and stated that the short - term bond purchase was for maintaining sufficient reserves [21]. - The market impact was mild. During the press - conference period, the S&P 500 rose, Treasury yields declined, gold prices increased slightly, and the US dollar index declined [23]. 3.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may further steepen. The 2 - year Treasury rate may oscillate between 3.34% - 3.74%, and the 10 - year rate between 3.9% - 4.3% [26]. - The US dollar index may maintain a weak trend, oscillating between 97 - 101. The Fed's rate cut is beneficial to China's external environment, providing more room for aggregate policies [26].

期货｜跨品种套利，如何剔除净基差的影响？ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《 短 期 内 市 场 主 线 有 哪 些 ？ 》 2025-12-07 2. 《信用 | 适当等待 》 2025-12-07 3. 《利率 | 收益率触达上限，模型接近翻 多》 2025-12-07 ❖ 跨品种套利实现久期中性后，市场通常是希望赚取期限利差收益，但往往净 基差对组合价值影响更大。因此我们通过寻找不同组合的净基差规律，试图 帮助投资者解决上述问题。 ❖ 跨品种套利组合实现久期中性后表现如何？ 组合实现久期中性后，波动主要来源于期限利差和净基差波动。规范分析来 看，由于实现久期中性需要的头寸比例随时变化，难以直接对一个"永远保 持久期中性"的组合进行分析。因此我们考虑构造某一时刻满足久期中性的 期货组合并在一段时间内维持比例不变，虽然这会导致组合在后续出现一定 的久期缺口，但缺口较小，对组合价格的影 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the livestock and pet industries, while highlighting ongoing challenges in pig farming due to supply pressures and price adjustments [2][5][9]. Livestock Industry Overview - Pig farming is experiencing downward price adjustments due to increased supply from smallholders and insufficient demand for cured products, leading to a supply-demand struggle [9][18]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.38% in November, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [21][9]. - As of December 4, the average price for market pigs was 11.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.57% [32][33]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 167.69 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 259.39 CNY per head for purchased piglets reported [39][42]. Poultry Industry Insights - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.27 CNY/kg as of December 5, up 1.11% week-on-week [40][44]. - The ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [40][41]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is under pressure due to a decline in demand linked to the overall losses in pig farming, with significant year-on-year decreases in vaccine approvals [50]. - However, the development of new vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, may provide a boost to the sector [50]. Seed Industry Trends - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybean have shown slight increases, with wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton, corn at 2357 CNY/ton, and soybean meal at 3111 CNY/ton as of December 5 [53][55]. - The USDA's November report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks, which may impact future pricing and availability [54][57]. Pet Industry Developments - The pet food export market faced a decline, with October exports amounting to 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [58][60]. - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with e-commerce sales in October increasing by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from local brands [61][62]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant sales growth for domestic pet brands, indicating a shift towards local products in the market [62].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-based low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3][14]. - The performance of various index enhancement funds has been highlighted, showing significant excess returns compared to their respective indices [10][11]. Market Index Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.26%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.28% [7][8]. - The year-to-date performance shows the CSI 300 Index up by 16.5%, while the CSI 300 index enhancement portfolio increased by 26.2%, resulting in an excess return of 9.7% [18]. Index Enhancement Fund Performance - For the CSI 300 index enhancement fund, the minimum excess return was -1.28%, the median was 0.11%, and the maximum was 0.95% for the week ending December 5, 2025 [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the CSI 500 index enhancement fund showed a minimum excess return of -10.18%, a median of 3.15%, and a maximum of 13.55% [11]. Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report outlines the construction of enhancement portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, utilizing deep learning to optimize alpha and risk signals [14][15]. - The CSI 500 index enhancement portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 30.3%, outperforming the CSI 500 index, which rose by 24.0%, resulting in an excess return of 6.4% [23][24]. Specific Index Enhancement Performance - The CSI A500 index enhancement portfolio has increased by 28.4% year-to-date, compared to a 19.6% rise in the CSI A500 index, yielding an excess return of 8.7% [29][32]. - The CSI 1000 index enhancement portfolio has shown a year-to-date increase of 38.0%, significantly outperforming the CSI 1000 index, which rose by 23.2%, leading to an excess return of 14.8% [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local business platform in China, actively exploring new business increments while facing short-term profit pressure due to increased competition in its core local commerce segment [7][19] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to significantly broaden its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural growth opportunities for future profitability [7][22] - Despite short-term losses, the long-term value of Meituan remains intact due to its established competitive advantages and operational efficiencies [7][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meituan, founded in March 2010, has evolved into a comprehensive platform offering various local services, including food delivery, hotel bookings, and travel services [10] - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected to consist of 74% from core local commerce and 26% from new businesses [13] Q3 2025 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but below market expectations [18] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased subsidies impacting delivery service revenue [19] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive pressures from rivals like JD and Alibaba, which have intensified the subsidy wars in the food delivery market [24] - Meituan's operational efficiency and established market presence provide a strong defense against these competitive threats [25] International Expansion - Meituan's overseas expansion, particularly through its Keeta brand, has shown promising results in markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with plans to further penetrate the Middle East and Latin America [22][29] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [30][31] - The report emphasizes that while short-term losses are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's solid market position and competitive advantages [30]