2026 年 3 月全国两会展望 证券研究报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.12 分析师 窦子豪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525040003 douzh@ctsec.com 分析师 张尤 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070001 zhangyou@ctsec.com 1. 《产业前瞻系列 1："十五五"城市更新 掘金蓝图》 2026-01-10 2. 《外部因素推高物价》 2026-01-09 3. 《 委 内 瑞 拉 对 原 油 的 意 义 》 2026-01-06 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 核心观点 2026 年全国两会召开在即，我们从以下四个方面对本次两会重点议题及 2026 年全年政策取向和经济走势进行前瞻性研判： 相关报告 财政政策：2025 年中央经济工作会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策，优化 推进"两新两重"。为落实会议部署，发改委、财政部优化升级"两新"补 贴范围和标准，新增老旧小区加装电梯、养老院设备和智能眼镜等领域，并 提前下达 625 亿元超长期特别国债予以支持；与此同时，约 2200 亿元资金 安排投向"两重"项目建设。在此背景下，我们预计 2026 年财政有望更加 积极精 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the accelerating domestic semiconductor equipment replacement and improved order visibility driven by advanced packaging technology [1]. - The company has a comprehensive equipment matrix in advanced packaging, with a leading market share in TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) and has upgraded its HB (Hybrid Bonding) equipment for mass production [8]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of HKD 141.14 billion, HKD 165.73 billion, and HKD 189.05 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant market performance shift, with a 44% increase compared to the previous year, while the semiconductor index has shown varied performance [4]. 2. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to decline by 24.10% in 2023, followed by a gradual recovery with expected growth rates of 6.69%, 17.42%, and 14.07% from 2025 to 2027 [7]. - The net profit is forecasted to recover from a low of HKD 345 million in 2024 to HKD 1.715 billion by 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [7]. 3. Valuation Recovery - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term trend of advanced packaging, with a clear growth logic supported by order recovery and improved profit structure [8]. - The company’s TCB market share is projected to reach 35%-40% by 2027, with a total potential market exceeding USD 1 billion [66]. 4. Advanced Packaging Growth - The advanced packaging market is anticipated to surpass traditional packaging by 2025, driven by the increasing demand for AI and high-performance computing [36]. - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10% until 2023, with significant contributions from government policies and diverse downstream demand [37]. 5. Geopolitical and Domestic Market Dynamics - The company is expected to gain market share in China due to the acceleration of domestic substitution and geopolitical factors, with a focus on local supply chain control [8]. - The company has established a strong local presence in China, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from the region, indicating a strategic advantage in the domestic market [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been continuously adjusting at the beginning of the year, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields breaking through key levels. Historically, bond market yields usually choose a direction around mid-January. The probability of a unilateral upward movement in yields at the turn of the year is extremely low. Over the past 10 years, yields have shown a V-shaped pattern in 5 years, an inverted V-shaped pattern in 2 years, a unilateral downward movement in 2 years, and a unilateral upward movement in 1 year [2]. - The direction of yields after mid-January depends on the verification of expectations after the end of the information vacuum period. If the verification falls short of expectations, yields usually return to pre-expectation levels. Currently, market concerns focus on factors such as ultra-long bond supply, the spring rally in equities, and less-than-expected monetary easing. However, since the third quarter of last year, the bond market has already priced in these negative factors, and the likelihood of these factors further exceeding expectations seems low [2]. - The effective upper limits for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields are 1.85% and 2.3% respectively. Short-term deviations do not represent a sustained breakthrough. The bond market requires patience, and investors should wait for opportunities around mid-January [2]. Summary by Directory How to Evaluate the Indicators at the Beginning of the Year? How to View the Market Expectations and Actual Trends Since the Beginning of 2022? - In early 2022, the expectation gap was between the verification of loose monetary policy and strong credit growth. Interest rates first declined due to expectations of monetary easing after a mid-January interest rate cut, but then rebounded as the strong start of the year became more apparent [10]. - In early 2023, the expectation gap was the actual strength of the post-pandemic economic recovery. Despite a tightening of the money supply, bond yields declined as the economic recovery fell short of expectations and the government set a relatively modest economic growth target [11]. - In early 2024, the expectation gap was the disappointment in incremental policies and the strong start of the year. After initial expectations for further growth-stabilizing policies faded, bond yields entered a second phase of decline as property and fiscal policies underperformed and government bond issuance was slow [12]. - In early 2025, the expectation gap was a significant reversal in expectations of monetary easing. Rooted in factors such as the strong start of the year, Sino-US relations, and technological narratives, risk appetite increased, leading to a tightening of funds by the central bank [13]. How Much Impact Do the Quality of the Strong Start and Supply Have? - The final verification of the strong start will come in March or April. In the short term, the market focuses on financial data and the PMI. Over the past 4 years, the net financing increment of government bonds from January to February has been most correlated with yield changes. If the year-on-year increase exceeds 50 billion yuan, the bond market may face pressure. Credit, PMI, and yield changes have a weak correlation, and the relationship between social financing and yields depends on market expectations [18]. Does the Stock-Bond跷跷板 Relationship Hold at the Beginning of the Year? - Since 2022, the short-term performance of stocks and bonds has shown some correlation, but the relationship may weaken after mid-January [19]. How to View Sino-US Disturbances? - Sino-US relations are a key factor. The impact on the bond market depends on the comparison between actual situations and market expectations [23][24]. How Much Impact Does the Money Supply Have? - The money supply is affected by various factors such as the economic situation, Sino-US relations, and the stock market. At the beginning of the year, the money supply is crucial. Before the Spring Festival, interest rates tend to rise seasonally, and whether this leads to a tight money supply depends on the central bank's attitude. A tight money supply can impede yield declines [26]. Is There a Final Decline? What Experience Can We Learn from History? - Regarding social financing and government bond supply, it is expected that the social financing growth rate from January to February will remain flat or increase slightly by 0.1 percentage points, and the net financing of government bonds will increase by more than 70 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. However, the central bank's bond purchases may offset the impact of supply [28]. - Regarding the stock-bond relationship, the stock market's spring rally may disrupt the bond market, but the stock market's ability to continuously rise and the potential decoupling of stock and bond trends after mid-January suggest that the stock market may not pose a long-term negative impact on the bond market [29][30]. - Regarding Sino-US relations, the market has been optimistic about Sino-US relations since the third quarter of last year. The likelihood of further unexpected improvement in Sino-US relations is lower than the possibility of negative changes, which is relatively favorable for the bond market [31][32]. - Regarding the money supply, the money supply has been improving since December. With the early issuance of government bonds and the central bank's view that interest rates have returned to a reasonable level, the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive stance, at least avoiding a repeat of last year's first-quarter situation [34]. A Magical Market Rule - Observing bond yields from November of the previous year to March of the following year, a pattern has emerged. Since 2016, a phased reversal has been the most common, with a V-shaped pattern in 5 years, an inverted V-shaped pattern in 2 years, a unilateral downward movement in 2 years, and a unilateral upward movement in 1 year. The probability of a unilateral upward movement is extremely low [35]. How Has the Market Performed in the First Quarter in Recent Years? - In the first quarter of 2022, yields first declined and then rose. Interest rate cuts and the COVID-19 situation initially pushed yields down, but expectations of strong credit growth and local property policies led to an increase in yields [46]. - In the first quarter of 2023, yields first rose and then fell. A tightening of funds and expectations of post-pandemic economic recovery pushed yields up at the beginning of the year, but unmet expectations, a lower economic growth target, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and a reserve requirement ratio cut led to a decline in yields [47][49]. - In the first quarter of 2024, yields declined steadily. Weak fundamentals, a poor stock market performance, a reserve requirement ratio cut, disappointing incremental policies, and a reduction in deposit rates contributed to the decline. Regulatory concerns about interest rate risk in March provided some resistance to the downward trend [52]. - In the first quarter of 2025, yields rose steadily. The central bank's suspension of bond purchases, a rise in the stock market driven by Deepseek, a structural stabilization of the economy, and better-than-expected US tariff policies led to an increase in yields [54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][69]. Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in the real estate development and commercial operation sectors for over 30 years, with a dual-driven business model [8][12]. - The commercial operation segment has become a significant source of profit, with the company managing 205 Wuyue Plazas across 141 cities as of June 30, 2025 [8][30]. - The company's operational capabilities have improved, with retail sales and foot traffic steadily increasing, supported by consumer promotion policies [8][44]. - As the real estate market stabilizes, the impact of asset impairment provisions on performance is expected to gradually diminish [8][58]. - The company is transitioning from low-margin real estate development to high-margin commercial operations, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [8][69]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has expanded its business into commercial real estate since 2008, with significant growth in its commercial operations [12]. - The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the Wang family as the actual controller [14]. 2. Commercial Operations - The company has a leading position in commercial management, with a steady increase in operational capabilities [8][30]. - The commercial operation revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2022 to 2024, with a 11.29% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [22][44]. - The gross profit margin for property leasing and management has been improving, reaching 71.2% in the first half of 2025 [38]. 3. Real Estate Development - The company has paused land acquisitions to reduce risk exposure, resulting in a 13.1% year-on-year decrease in total land reserves as of the first half of 2025 [49]. - Sales revenue has declined significantly, but the average selling price has stabilized, increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [53][55]. 4. Financial Performance - The company is actively reducing debt, with interest-bearing liabilities decreasing by 6.3% year-on-year to 52.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [62]. - The average financing cost has dropped to 5.55%, down 37 basis points from the end of 2024 [62]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 862 million yuan, 968 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [69]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 0.38 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.50 yuan [69].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook for the market, suggesting that the current phase is a "slow bull market" with potential for further upward movement, particularly in the spring of 2026 [4][22] - It highlights the importance of "running horse assets," which are leading companies with global competitiveness, as key investment opportunities [4][6] - The report indicates that the market has shown signs of recovery, with trading volumes stabilizing around 2 trillion yuan, reflecting improved investor sentiment [5][10] Long-term Strategy - The report suggests that the Chinese government's supportive policies and a shift towards market empowerment will enhance economic vitality, contributing to a more robust market environment [4][6] - It anticipates a recovery in public fund issuance and an increase in insurance capital inflows, which could further support market growth [4][6] Mid-term Analysis - The report predicts a potential "spring opening red" scenario, where market sentiment improves and leads to a rally starting from late December [5][22] - It notes that the current market valuation is not at an excessively high level, indicating room for growth as economic recovery progresses [5][23] Short-term Focus - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including high-end manufacturing, technology, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from the economic transition and easing of U.S.-China tensions [6][10] - It highlights the importance of monitoring trading volumes and market sentiment as indicators for entry points into the market [5][10] Macro Economic Overview - The report discusses the downward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and the influx of global capital into equity and bond markets, which is expected to positively impact the Chinese market [7][10] - It notes that the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with improvements in CPI data and a strong performance in high-frequency economic indicators compared to the previous year [7][10] Investment Portfolio Recommendations - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on both cyclical sectors and high-end manufacturing, as well as electric new energy sectors for January [8][10] - It emphasizes the importance of sector rotation and suggests that small-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks in the current market environment [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, convertible bonds performed excellently, with equity characteristics contributing the main revenue. The convertible bond market's performance was the third - highest in terms of revenue since 2010 and the best since 2021. The contribution ratio of the underlying stocks and valuation to the rise and fall was about 7:4, similar to 2021. Compared with mainstream stock indices, the convertible bond index showed the property of "attack when the market rises and defend when the market falls", with Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio second only to micro - cap stocks [2][6]. - In 2025, the supply of convertible bonds was in the ascendant. Over 230 billion yuan of convertible bonds were delisted, reaching the highest scale since 2018, with banks having the largest delisting scale. The primary market issuance process accelerated in the second half of the year, but the issuance of large - scale convertible bonds remained cautious. Listed companies were more inclined to issue private placements [2]. - In 2025, the demand for convertible bonds was differentiated, and the ETF share reached a new high. The logic of the "fixed - income asset shortage" continued, and the demand structure of institutions for convertible bonds changed significantly. The direct holding scale of convertible bonds by institutions such as insurance and annuities was at a historically low level, while the holding scale of convertible bonds by funds, especially ETFs, reached a historical high [2]. - In 2025, the game of convertible bond terms was characterized by "high return and high risk". The probabilities of downward revision and non - call of convertible bonds were at historically low levels, but the number of times of triggering call/downward revision was relatively high since 2019, indicating an increase in the intensity of the game. The odds of the downward revision game were at a historical high, with photovoltaic convertible bonds and near - maturity convertible bonds being the highlights of the whole year. The profit - loss ratio of the call game deteriorated compared with the previous year but was still at a historical high [2]. - In 2025, the risks of convertible bonds were better than expected, and the impact of ratings decreased. Only Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets triggered the substantial default risk, and the risk performance was better than investors' expectations. Although there were still many convertible bonds with rating adjustments, the impact on pricing was significantly weakened, and the market was generally "desensitized" to ratings [2]. Summary According to the Directory 2025, How Did the Convertible Bond Market Perform? 2021 - 2025: The Best - Performing Year Since 2021, with Equity Income as the Main Contributor - Vertically, the convertible bond holding experience in 2025 could rank among the top four years since 2010. As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 491.83 points, up 18.6% from the end of 2024. It was the third - highest revenue - earning year since 2010 and the best since 2021. The maximum drawdown was about 6%, the annualized volatility was less than 10%, and the Sharpe ratio was 1.92, the Calmar ratio was 3.01, achieving high returns with low drawdown and medium - low volatility [6]. - In terms of revenue decomposition, the contribution ratio of the underlying stocks and valuation to the rise and fall in 2025 was about 7:4. The change in the underlying stocks contributed 14 percentage points to the index return, and the change in valuation contributed about 8 percentage points, similar to 2021 [9]. - Horizontally, the return performance of the convertible bond index was slightly weaker, but the cost - performance was prominent. Compared with the stock indices in the same period, its return was only stronger than that of the Shanghai Composite Index, Juchao Large - cap Index, and Guozheng Value Index, but significantly weaker than that of the micro - cap and ChiNext Index. However, in terms of Sharpe ratio and Calmar ratio, it was only slightly weaker than the Wind Micro - cap Index, showing the property of "attack when the market rises and defend when the market falls" [13]. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Volatility Throughout the Year, and the Year - End Increase Converged - **First stage (Early 2025 - March 2025)**: Driven by the spring rally and supported by AI + robot innovation and low initial valuations, the convertible bond market had a dual - wheel - driven market of valuation and the underlying stocks, with a maximum index increase of 6.15% by the end of February. Low - price convertible bonds performed strongly, and the concern about credit risk events was reversed [19]. - **Second stage (March 2025 - Early April 2025)**: After the Two Sessions, the spring rally ended, and the market returned to the trading of annual report expectations. Market sentiment cooled down, and the convertible bond valuation peaked and declined. The intensification of Sino - US trade disputes led to a stock market correction on the first trading day after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 4.05%, with the automotive, communication, and computer industries leading the decline [19]. - **Third stage (Early April 2025 - Mid - June 2025)**: After the market correction on April 7, state funds such as Central Huijin entered the market, providing liquidity support. The Sino - US tariff issue was in a "tug - of - war", and the market expectation improved. The valuations of the overseas and export sectors rebounded, but concerns about the ratings of the photovoltaic and other sectors with weak performance emerged [20]. - **Fourth stage (End of June 2025 - End of August 2025)**: After the release of all rating results at the end of June, institutional funds increased their allocation of convertible bonds, and the convertible bond ETF share increased significantly. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry was implemented, and the photovoltaic convertible bonds rebounded. The A - share market was booming, driving the convertible bond market to its main uptrend. The convertible bond price and valuation reached new highs, and the market capacity decreased [20]. - **Fifth stage (End of August 2025 - Present)**: At the end of August, institutions' profit - taking demand led to a decline in the convertible bond market. The positions of insurance and annuity institutions in convertible bonds decreased significantly. The supply of convertible bonds improved in September, but it was difficult to offset the shrinkage caused by conversion. The convertible bond valuation stabilized and rebounded after the adjustment at the end of August and reached a high level again in December [21][22]. In 2025, the Supply of the Convertible Bond Market was in the Ascendant The Market Capacity Declined to Around 500 Billion Yuan, and the Delisting Scale Reached a Historical High - In 2025, the number of delisted convertible bonds reached a historical high, and the market capacity decreased rapidly. By December 30, 2025, a total of 163 convertible bonds were delisted, with a total delisting scale of over 230 billion yuan, the peak since 2018. The banking industry had the largest delisting scale of 101.323 billion yuan, followed by non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment and new energy [23]. The Primary Issuance Had Mixed Results, with Small - Ticket Issuance Accelerating and Large - Ticket Issuance Still Difficult - The good aspect was that the primary market issuance process accelerated in the second half of 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average time from the announcement of the convertible bond plan to listing was about 320 days, the lowest since 2023 [25]. - The regulatory authorities were still relatively cautious about the issuance of medium - and large - scale convertible bonds. As of now, no convertible bonds with a scale of over 2 billion yuan announced in 2025 have been listed, while 8 convertible bonds with a scale of less than 2 billion yuan have been listed [28]. Subjectively, the Trend of Listed Companies Preferring Private Placements was More Prominent - The ratio of the number of convertible bond plans to private placement plans has been declining sharply since the refinancing new regulations in 2023. In 2025, 53 listed companies announced private placement plans, while only 9 announced convertible bond plans, with a ratio of 16.98%, far lower than the average level before 2023 [29]. In 2025, the Demand for Convertible Bonds was Differentiated, and the ETF Share Reached a New High - In 2025, the logic of the "fixed - income asset shortage" continued, but the demand structure of institutions for convertible bonds changed significantly. As of November 2025, the direct holding of convertible bonds by insurance and annuity institutions was at a historically low level since 2021, while the holding of convertible bonds by funds, especially ETFs, reached a historical high [32]. In 2025, the Game of Convertible Bond Terms was Characterized by "High Return and High Risk" The Overall Probability of Downward Revision and Non - call of Convertible Bonds in 2025 was at a Historical Low - In 2025, it was a "big year" for call, and the call probability increased. There were 131 call announcements and 149 non - call announcements, and the call: non - call ratio was 88%, the highest since 2020. - The intensity of the downward revision of convertible bonds in 2025 was second only to 2024, but the downward revision probability decreased. There were 68 downward revision proposal announcements and 510 non - downward revision announcements, and the downward revision: non - downward revision ratio was 13%, at a historically low level [36]. Downward Revision: There were Odds, and Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds and Near - Maturity Convertible Bonds were the Highlights of the Whole Year - In terms of odds, the return performance of the convertible bond downward revision game in 2025 was at a relatively high level in history. The average return after a downward revision proposal was 2.02%, the best since 2023, and the average return after an actual downward revision was 0.63%, at a relatively high level since 2019 [41]. - In terms of influencing factors, the downward revision probability of near - maturity convertible bonds was significantly higher. The downward revision probability was highly correlated with the remaining term, showing obvious monotonicity. The new energy industry had the most downward revisions, and although some convertible bonds did not succeed in conversion by the end of 2025, they achieved good returns, and the downward revision increased the possibility of future call [42]. Call: The Profit - Loss Ratio of the Game Deteriorated Compared with the Previous Year but was Still at a Historical High - In 2025, the call game fluctuated greatly, and the non - call return was higher than the historical average. The average return on the first day after the non - call announcement of convertible bonds was 2.29%, higher than the historical average since 2019. The average return on the first day after the call announcement was - 2.54%, and the profit - loss ratio was about 0.9, which deteriorated significantly compared with 2024 but was still at a historical high [48]. In 2025, the Risks of Convertible Bonds were Better than Expected, and the Impact of Ratings Decreased - In 2025, there were no serious default events in the convertible bond market, which was significantly better than investors' expectations. Although Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 triggered default risk in the fourth quarter, its underlying stock had been ST before the restructuring, and its convertible bond rating had also fallen below the investment grade [48]. - In terms of ratings, although there were still many convertible bonds with rating adjustments, the impact on pricing decreased significantly. By December 30, 2025, 42 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded and 40 were put on the rating watch list. However, the average decline of convertible bonds on the first trading day after the rating downgrade was only 0.01%, indicating that the market was generally "desensitized" to rating changes and the pricing was smoother [51].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2][62] Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in the Greater Bay Area, focusing on toll roads and environmental protection sectors, with a total of 16 toll road projects and a toll mileage of 613 kilometers as of H1 2025 [8][15] - The toll road business is showing positive trends, with a daily traffic increase of 5.4% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by network changes in the Shenzhen area [8][32] - The environmental protection segment is stabilizing, with expectations that impairment provisions have reached their end, allowing for a focus on high-quality projects [8][51] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio expected to reach 54% in 2024, and cumulative dividends of 7.04 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024 [8][59] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, is the first listed enterprise in both Hong Kong and Shanghai from Shenzhen, with Shenzhen International as the controlling shareholder [12][15] - The main business includes toll roads and environmental protection, with a focus on solid waste resource processing and clean energy generation [15][22] Toll Road Business - The toll road business remains the core revenue and gross profit source, consistently contributing over 50% of total revenue and over 80% of gross profit [26][29] - The company is actively expanding its toll road assets through new constructions and upgrades, including the Outer Ring Road and the Jihe Expressway [38][41] Environmental Protection Business - The environmental protection segment includes solid waste processing and clean energy generation, with a focus on organic waste treatment and wind and solar power projects [22][24] - The company has processed over 1,045.6 thousand tons of organic waste in the first nine months of 2025, generating operational revenue of 550 million yuan [22][24] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.245 billion yuan, 10.501 billion yuan, and 11.270 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.763 billion yuan, 1.809 billion yuan, and 1.892 billion yuan [7][62] - The company’s financial costs have decreased significantly, with the comprehensive borrowing cost dropping from 4.7% in 2017 to 2.6% in H1 2025 [57][58]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, particularly focusing on the cost reduction potential of aluminum replacing copper in air conditioning systems [2][5] - The adoption of aluminum-copper technology is seen as a significant step towards reducing production costs amid rising copper prices and resource scarcity [10][15] Group 1: Aluminum-Copper Technology Impact - The use of aluminum instead of copper in air conditioning units can lead to substantial cost savings, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 208 to 277 RMB per unit when replacing 50% of copper, and up to 416 to 554 RMB when replacing 100% [11][12] - Copper currently constitutes about 26% to 33% of the cost in standard air conditioning units, with high-end models reaching over 40% [11][12] - The global market has seen significant adoption of aluminum-copper products, particularly in Japan where approximately 40% to 50% of air conditioners use aluminum heat exchangers [15][16] Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges - Despite the cost advantages, the domestic promotion of aluminum-copper air conditioners faces challenges, including inferior thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance compared to copper [19][20] - Consumer perception is a major barrier, as negative opinions about aluminum's reliability persist, complicating market acceptance [19][20] - The first domestic aluminum-copper air conditioner was launched by Wanbao in collaboration with JD.com, targeting the mid-to-low-end market, which may help accelerate industry-wide material transitions [16][17] Group 3: Industry Performance and Trends - The home appliance sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall index increasing by 0.44%, while specific segments like white goods and black goods experienced varied changes [21][22] - Recent data indicates a decline in domestic sales growth for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, reflecting broader market challenges [33][47] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring raw material prices, with copper and aluminum prices showing significant fluctuations that could impact production costs [29][31]

1. 《转债主动调整冷却期，如何定价？—— 宏图转债调整冷却期点评》 2025-12- 29 2. 《布局春躁，开门红可期——1 月转债市 场展望》 2025-12-28 3. 《信用 | 把握跨年前的窗口 》 2025- 12-28 2025：非典型震荡市——利率债年度复盘 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.12.30 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 ❖ 2025 年是极不寻常的震荡市，利率调整幅度有限、信用是牛市，但纯债 产品净值中位数几乎是历史低点。有哪些启示？第一，经济寻底过程中不 会是简单的单边趋势，货币财政形成合力的阶段，债市的确要有一定敬畏； 第二，利率越低、货币政策的约束越来越多，审慎管理对利率的边界有严 格控制；第三，低利率环境下机构行为有深刻变化，大类资产比价对债券 的影响会被放大，纯粹的配置盘越来越少，供需逻辑越来越重要；第四， ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 China Financial Stability Report presents a satisfactory outcome. The future prudential management system will continue to play a role. The central bank aims to keep interest rates stable and increase the stock market volume, which reduces the expectation of future interest rate cuts. However, from a macro perspective, a stable low - interest - rate environment remains the most widely accepted option during the phase of government leveraging up, household de - leveraging, and enterprise stable leveraging [3]. - The report positively evaluates the current operation of China's financial industry, and the key tasks of the previous year have achieved phased results. The next - stage focus is on improving the comprehensive macro - prudential management system, with the three key tasks being debt resolution, reform and risk mitigation of small and medium - sized financial institutions, and macro - prudential management of real - estate finance [4]. - Attention should be paid to the risk - resistance ability of the banking industry. Although the capital adequacy ratio seems to have increased, the pressure test results show a steeper decline in capital adequacy ratio and a steeper increase in non - performing loan ratio. The key to future macro - economy is to boost the leveraging willingness of enterprises and households [5]. Section Summaries 1. Evaluation more positive, focus on the construction and coordination of risk - prevention system - The 2025 report positively evaluates the operation of the financial industry, deletes the issue of insufficient demand mentioned in the previous two years, and focuses on the coordinated construction of the risk - prevention system. The three key tasks remain the same, but the macro - prudential management of real - estate finance is placed last [9]. - The high - level is satisfied with the 2024 financial risk - prevention results. The key tasks of the previous year have achieved phased results. The 2025 report's structure is basically the same as that of 2024, with a reduced number of columns and adjusted themes [10]. - The report emphasizes the coordination between risk prevention and other fields, and expands the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [11]. 2. "Shape can be formed, adjustable", interest rates to be stable - The central bank aims to keep interest rates stable, focusing on implementing existing policies and reducing the expectation of future interest rate cuts. The goal of "liberalization" in interest - rate market reform has been basically achieved, but "shape formation" and "adjustability" still face challenges [13]. - In 2024, the central bank implemented a series of measures to strengthen interest - rate policy implementation. Currently, the pressure on the net interest margin of banks continues to rise, especially for small and medium - sized banks [14]. - Insurance industry reform focuses on reducing liability - side costs, business expenses, and disposing of high - risk institutions. The solvency of the insurance industry is declining [18]. 3. The stock market needs to increase volume - The 2025 report pays more attention to the equity market. The core of market - value management is to guide listed companies to focus on their investment value and increase investor returns. The next - stage work focuses on four areas [21]. - Increasing the stock market volume is beneficial for cultivating a long - bull market environment. The government promotes the entry of long - term funds into the market, and the central bank coordinates macro - policy regulation [24]. 4. Areas that need key attention 4.1 The risk - resistance ability of banks has decreased - In 2024, the capital adequacy, asset quality, risk - compensation ability, and liquidity of commercial banks improved marginally. However, the pressure test results show that the risk - resistance ability of 23 participating banks has declined [26][30]. - Compared with the 2024 report, the 2025 report continues and develops the key points of banking reform, with more specific directions and additional measures [36]. 4.2 The macro - leverage ratios of different sectors are diverging - In 2024, China's macro - leverage ratio increased, but the leverage ratio structure continued to optimize. The government sector became the main leverager, the non - financial enterprise sector's leveraging speed slowed down, and the household sector's leverage ratio decreased slightly [39]. - Historically, the economic recovery requires the cooperation of household and enterprise leveraging. Currently, boosting the leveraging willingness of enterprises and households is crucial for economic recovery [39].