医药生物 / 行业深度分析报告 / 2025.04.03 全球前沿创新专题报告（六） 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% -11% -3% 4% 12% 19% 医药生物 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 张文录 SAC 证书编号：S0160517100001 zhangwenlu@ctsec.com 分析师 华挺 SAC 证书编号：S0160523010002 huating@ctsec.com 分析师 赵千 SAC 证书编号：S0160524020001 zhaoqian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《联用治疗成为降脂趋势，新型药物 崛起》 2025-03-30 2. 《脑机接口行业动态梳理》 2025- 03-28 3. 《创新医药双周报》 2025-03-25 ActR 通路阻断的临床应用之增肌 核心观点 数据来源：wind 数据，财通证券研究所 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 阻断 ActR 信号通路可以有效促进肌肉增长：转化生长因子β（TGFβ） 超家族中的 Activin A、Myostatin（GDF8）、GDF11 被发现通过激活素受体通 路对肌肉、血 ...

中科江南(301153) / 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.29 公司深化与华为合作，升级多款政务 AI 产品 相关报告 1. 《数字财政筑基石，电子凭证育未来》 2024-03-29 2. 《Q3 收入超预期，电子会计凭证孕 新机》 2023-10-30 3. 《业绩预告超预期，增长动力不断》 2023-07-02 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-28 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 26.33 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.06 | | 每股净资产(元) | 5.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 3.50 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -53% -32% -12% 9% 30% 50% 中科江南 沪深300 上证指数 软件开发 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com 联系人 郑元昊 zhengyh03@ctsec.com 公司点评/证券研究报告 | 公司财务报表及指标预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

蝉联半挂车销量冠军，新能源头挂列车迎来增长机遇 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-28 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 9.08 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 14.54 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 18.74 | 最近 12 月市场表现 中集车辆(301039) / 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2025.03.28 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25087 | 20998 | 23009 | 25897 | 29167 | | 收入增长率(%) | 6.21 | -16.30 | 9.58 | 12.55 | 12.62 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2456 | 1085 | 1464 | 1660 | 1863 | | 净利润增长率(%) | 119.66 | -55.80 | 34.91 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.768 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million yuan, up 491.56% year-on-year [5] - The introduction of the 12-inch silicon carbide substrate marks a significant technological advancement, with a 2.5 times increase in single wafer chip output [5] - The company is exploring new applications for silicon carbide materials in AI products, which could enhance user experience and reduce manufacturing costs [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.538 billion yuan, 3.268 billion yuan, and 4.112 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 313 million yuan, 521 million yuan, and 817 million yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 199.90% for 2023, 41.37% for 2024, and 43.52% for 2025 [4] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 12.3% by 2025, with an EPS of 0.73 yuan [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -0.87% in 2023 to 5.57% in 2025 [4][7] Market Position and Trends - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for silicon carbide materials in various applications, particularly in the AI sector [5] - The report highlights the company's proactive approach in exploring downstream applications, which could lead to significant market opportunities [5]

Group 1: Geopolitical Context - Trump's administration has shifted U.S. foreign policy towards isolationism, aligning with Russia's stance against NATO's eastward expansion, facilitating potential peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict[2] - A successful ceasefire could significantly alter geopolitical dynamics, leading to increased European autonomy and defense spending[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The EU plans to invest €1 trillion in defense by 2030, equating to 5% of total EU investment in 2024 and 1% of GDP, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.8%[2][18] - Germany is expected to invest nearly €1 trillion in military and infrastructure, which could increase annual investment growth by 11% and GDP growth by over 2%[2][18] Group 3: Post-Conflict Economic Recovery - A ceasefire would restore energy supplies, reducing production costs for European businesses and enhancing investment confidence, particularly in high-energy sectors like chemicals and steel[2][25] - Ukraine will require approximately $524 billion for reconstruction over the next decade, averaging $52.4 billion annually, which is about 0.3% of EU GDP[37] Group 4: Investment Gaps and Recovery - The EU faces an investment gap of around €600 billion, equivalent to 20% of total investment in 2024, exacerbated by the energy crisis[40] - If the conflict ends, total investment growth in Europe could rebound to around 7%, with GDP growth rising from 1.1% to approximately 2%[45][64] Group 5: Market Reactions - The resolution of the conflict is expected to lead to a revaluation of European assets, with capital inflows returning as geopolitical risks diminish[48] - European stock indices have shown significant gains, with the DAX30, IBEX30, and CAC40 rising by 17.6%, 14.1%, and 12.1% respectively in the first quarter of the year[52]

国联民生(601456) / 证券Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.03.27 Q4 经纪收入同比+1.5 倍，全年境外业务高增 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.95 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 28.32 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.56 | | 总股本(亿股) | 56.81 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -14% -5% 4% 13% 22% 31% 国联民生 沪深300 分析师 许盈盈 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号：S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《投资对全年业绩负面影响逐步减 少》 2024-11-01 2. 《资管业务发展亮眼，投资端依旧拖 累业绩》 2024-09-02 ❖ 事件：公司2024年实现营业收入/归母净利润26.83/3.97亿元，同比分别-9.2%/- 40.8%，ROE 同比-1.70pct 至 2.19%。其中单四季度营业收入环比/同比分别 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.261 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.513 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year [8][11] - The net interest margin pressure has weakened, and provisions have contributed positively to performance [8] - The company is expected to benefit from strong credit demand in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with a projected net profit growth of 4.2%, 5.2%, and 5.6% for 2025-2027 [8] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 28.261 billion yuan in 2024, with a quarterly revenue of 6.747 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 11.513 billion yuan, with Q4 net profit reaching 1.205 billion yuan, a 27.2% increase year-on-year [11] Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.61%, a decrease of 12 basis points year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 [23] - The company has optimized its funding costs, with significant reductions in the costs of various deposit types [23] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18% at the end of 2024, showing stability with a slight year-on-year decrease [28] - The overdue loan ratio improved to 1.32%, indicating effective overdue management [28] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans and advances reached 714.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [15] - Total deposits amounted to 941.9 billion yuan, with personal deposits increasing by 8.2% year-on-year [21] Non-Interest Income - The company reported a net non-interest income of 41.55 billion yuan, a significant increase of 55.5% year-on-year, driven by favorable market conditions [26]

中信证券(600030) / 证券Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2025.03.27 整体业绩稳健增长,国际业务净利润同比翻倍 最近 12月市场表现 许盈盈 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060002 xuyy02@ctsec.com 分析师 刘金金 SAC 证书编号： S0160524050001 liujj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《投资端率先释放弹性,看好后续业 绩回归增长区间 -- 3Q2024 业绩点评》 2024-10-30 2. 《龙头优势保持,减值冲回增厚利润》 2024-08-29 3. 《费用管控增厚业绩,期待一流投行 建设成效》 2024-04-27 核心观点 因 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-03-26 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 26.98 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 147.97 | | 每股净资产(元) | 17.70 | | 总股本(亿股) | 148.21 | 事件:公司 2024年实现营业收入/归母净利润 637.89/217.04 亿元,同比分别 � +6.2%/+10.1%, ROE 同比+0.28p ...

计算机 / 行业投资策略报告 / 2025.03.23 AI 投资"软硬兼施"，优选强业绩韧性资产 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 分析师 王妍丹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524040002 wangyd01@ctsec.com 分析师 李宇轩 SAC 证书编号：S0160524080001 liyx02@ctsec.com ❖ AI 投资把握"软硬兼施"，优选强业绩韧性资产。2024 年 9 月底，政策 端迎来强劲支撑，货币和财政政策公共发力，推动计算机板块实现触底反弹。 2025 年 2 月，在以 DeepSeek 为代表的中国科技成果涌现下，中国科技发展的 信心更加坚定，计算机板块迎来了百花齐放的精彩时刻，这与我们 2024 年 11 月发表的《2025 年投资策略：多维共振，精彩纷呈》形成了呼应。站在当下， 在巨头资本开支的牵引下，在国产大模型和国产算力的推动下，我们认为 AI 投资思路将从"先硬后软"转向"软硬兼施"，在节奏切向财报季的阶段，应 优先把握强业绩韧性的优质资产。 ❖ 投资建议：巨头资本开支确定性更强，硬件侧有望在报表端更快兑现，建议 关注 AI 基座板块，软件侧受益于 AI ...

中材国际(600970)/ 专业工程/ 公司点评/ 2025.03.25 业绩稳中有增，运维业务占比提升 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | 基本数据 | 2025-03-25 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.07 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.34 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.42 | 最近 12 月市场表现 相关报告 1. 《业绩符合预期，矿山运维新签保持 高增 》 2024-10-26 2. 《业绩稳中有增，经营现金流同比改 善》 2024-08-25 3. 《境外新签快速增长，毛利率及现金 流修复》 2024-04-30 盈利预测： | [Table_FinchinaSimple] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 45799 | 46127 | 47816 | 49862 | 52251 | | 收入增长率(%) | 6.94 | 0.72 | 3.66 ...