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特斯拉和Waymo持续加速Robotaxi业务
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 07:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the Robotaxi industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the U.S. by 2026, driven by advancements from companies like Tesla and Waymo [6][5]. - Tesla has initiated public operations of its fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet in Austin, with plans for widespread application by the end of 2026 [6]. - Waymo is expanding its operational areas significantly, with plans to increase the number of cities it serves, including Miami and others [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Tesla's fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet began public service in Austin on January 22, 2026, with gradual increases in vehicle numbers planned [6]. - Waymo has expanded its operational area in Austin from 90 to 140 square miles and is set to launch services in additional cities [6]. Future Projections - By the end of 2026, Robotaxi services are anticipated to be widely adopted across the U.S., influencing related industries domestically [6]. - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to enter production in April 2026, with a projected cost of less than $0.20 per mile for large-scale operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Ponyo, Horizon Robotics, and XPeng Motors, while also suggesting to monitor other players like Didi Global, Uber, and Cao Cao Mobility [6].
地缘事件与行业供需共振,如何把握油运市场投资机会
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 06:31
地缘事件与行业供需共振 如何把握油运市场投资机会 分析师:祝玉波 SAC:S 0 1 6 0 5 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 联系人:李翔宇 证券研究报告 | 2026/1/25 核心观点 • 二战至今:二战结束至今整体持续性好,景气跨度长的周期共有两轮,分别为1983-1991年和1999-2004年。两轮大周期前均有供给端显著持续 性的出清(自然出清亦或悲观预期、法规推动),偏紧的供需关系为后续运价弹性的释放提供了更加稳固的支撑,从而使得周期景气度延续性好。 • 当下阶段:本轮景气周期前,供给尚未出现大规模实质性物理出清。2023-2025年原油油轮合计共拆解321万DWT,尚不足2021年单年930万DWT的 拆解量。从原油油轮平均拆船年龄来看,2025年平均拆船年龄为25.9岁,已处于近20年相对高点。本轮景气更多为需求层面推动,OPEC+自2025 年4月开始扩产,截至2026年1月已撤销减产计划261万桶/天。伴随上游扩产释放货盘,原油运输需求快速增长,反映为全球原油海上在途运量 创下新高。 • 股价复盘:股价自2025年8月至今经历了一轮"高位—回调—再冲高"的演绎,与现货运价存在一定协同, ...
二永债可以继续拉久期吗?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 05:58
信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗? 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.26 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号:S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号:S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 涂靖靖 SAC 证书编号:S0160525030001 tujj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《转债 | 高估值下机构如何择券?- 2025Q4 公募持仓点评》 2026-01-25 2. 《期货|关注反弹持续性》 2026-01- 25 3. 《利率 | 1 月政府债供给低于预期吗? 》 2026-01-25 核心观点 一是利率有"区间",而信用则没有明确的锚,且票息确定性更强,与去年下 半年的收益率低点对比,3y 以上信用还没修复到位,其中二永>城投。 二是对比去年 9 月初公募基金销售新规征求意见稿发布时点,二永尤其是 3y 以上二永修复差强人意,前期债市前景不明朗的情况下,交易型券种拉久期 策略并不受青睐。 三是供给压力不大。历年一二月由于春节因素发行普遍放缓,信用债供给量 比较有限,截至 1 月 23 日, ...
AIAgent沙箱化有望带来CPU新增量空间:看好 CPU 及相关产业链
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 05:45
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [2][10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the deployment of Al Agent sandboxing is expected to create new demand for CPUs, driven by the need to control potential risks associated with Al Agents [6] - The report suggests that as Al Agents continue to develop, the associated sandbox technology will likely be adopted, leading to new growth opportunities for CPU manufacturers and related supply chains [6] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance with a 20% increase [3] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - The report lists key companies with their investment ratings, including: - Haiguang Information: Market Cap 641.52 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.83, with a PE of 332.53 [5] - Longxin Zhongke: Market Cap 77.39 billion, EPS for 2024A is -1.56 [5] - Tongfu Microelectronics: Market Cap 85.50 billion, EPS for 2024A is 0.45, with a PE of 125.20 [5] Industry Trends - The report discusses the increasing adoption of Al Agent sandboxing both domestically and internationally, with significant investments such as Meta's acquisition of Manus for over 2 billion USD [6] - The report emphasizes that the functionality of Al Agents is largely dependent on the richness and reliability of the tools they can access, with function calling being a core technology [6]
拐点已现上行持续,港资房企估值重塑
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-26 04:30
拐点已现上行持续,港资房企估值重塑 青世产 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 12% 分析师 房诚搭 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090002 fangcg@ctsec.com 陈思宇 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号:S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业跟踪周报》 2026-01- 20 2. 《 房地产行业跟踪周报 》 2026-01- 12 3. 《 2025 房企投资复盘:拿地金额及货值 转正,十强占比过半》 2026-01-06 拐点已现上行持续,港资房企估值重塑 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 行业深度分析报告 / 2026.01.25 香港住宅市场企稳回升,商业地产阶段性仍然承压:2025年香港新房成 * 交量已接近 2019 年周期峰值水平,二手房成交量创 2022 年以来新高,住宅 价格自 2025 年 3 月企稳并逐步提升,成交量价修复带动库存去化周期由 125 个月大幅缩减至61个月,香港住宅 ...
量化选股策略周报:本周指增组合表现回暖
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-25 07:55
本周指增组合表现回 我们基于深度学习框架构建 alpha 和风险模型,打造 AI 体系下的低 ex 频指数增强策略: � 风险提示: 因子失效风险,模型失效风险,市场风格变动风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! ■ 证券研究报告 4 突出 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 韩的 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060004 hangian@ctsec.com 张毅 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 量化选股策略周报/ 2026.01.24 核心观点 1. 《 本周市场走势分化,指增组合涨跌不 一》 2026-01-17 2. 《红利选股的战略三角:进攻、防守和交 易》 2026-01-12 3. 《市场放量延续强势,指增组合集体回 2026-01-10 摘》 本周市场指数表现:截至 2026-01-23,本周上证指数上涨 0.84%,深证 � 成指上涨 1.11%,沪深 300 下跌 0.62%,小微盘指数表现亮眼。 in 本周指数增强基金表现:截至 2026-01-23,本周沪深 3 ...
大类资产配置的密码:量化:量化金、油择时模型
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-22 06:36
量化 | 金、油择时模型——大类资产配置的密码 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号:S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号:S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 付耕阳 fugy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率下行,关注节前大额流动性工具 运用》 2026-01-21 2. 《基金 | 美国债基规模为何持续扩张?》 2026-01-20 3. 《高估值新常态,延续高胜率+正凸性》 2026-01-18 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.22 核心观点 ❖ 择时框架是否可以应用于商品?前期我们针对债券收益率及权益指数建 立了相应的择时模型,那么是否可以对于商品期货建立类似的择时模型?我 们对市场关注度最高的黄金和原油进行建模。需要注意的是,期货交易较为 高频,多空机制相对完善,同时部分期货结算及收盘价计算规则存在差异, 我们的模型更偏向于中期波段,因此可能并不适用于日内的高频交易。 ❖ 黄金择时模型 2019 年 3 月至今的样本外区间,模型共形成 61 个正 确区间,17 个错误区间,区间胜率 78 ...
TCL电子:高端大屏化策略持续发力,RGB布局开启新篇-20260122
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-22 04:30
高端大屏化策略持续发力,RGB 布局开启新篇 TCL 电子(01070) 证券研究报告 黑色家电 / 公司点评 / 2026.01.20 投资评级:买入(维持) | 基本数据 | 2026-01-20 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 10.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 25.21 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.21 | 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 邢瀚文 SAC 证书编号:S0160525050001 xinghw@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《TCL 电子 1H25 中报盈喜,miniled 快 速放量》 2025-07-30 2. 《技术赋能智能显示,全球化提升运营能 力》 2025-06-30 核心观点 ❖ 风险提示:产品研发不及预期;汇率波动风险;新技术行业竞争风险 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (港币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027 ...
台积电Capex与业绩双超预期,先进制程 封装加速增长
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 07:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI computing demand is surging, with advanced processes solidifying growth foundations. TSMC's revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, with advanced process revenue share rising to 77% [6][7] - Strong profitability resilience is noted, with gross margin reaching 62.3% and net profit margin at 48.3% in Q4 2025, significantly exceeding guidance [10][11] - Global capacity layout and technology/resource allocation are strengthening long-term barriers, with TSMC's overseas capacity expansion and advanced packaging facilities progressing [6][12] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with competitive advantages in advanced manufacturing and those benefiting from domestic advanced packaging capacity [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.04609 trillion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, driven by AI-related high-performance computing chip demand [7][10] - The advanced process (7nm and below) revenue share increased to 77%, with 3nm process contributing 28% of revenue, highlighting the importance of AI chip demand [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase from previous plans, focusing on advanced process capacity expansion and semiconductor equipment procurement [17][21] - The company aims for a long-term revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, with AI accelerator revenue CAGR adjusted upwards for 2024-2029 [21]
房地产行业跟踪周报:周度成交阶段性承压,商业用房首付比例下限下调
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 07:30
Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]