中 泰证 券研 究 所 专 业｜ 领 先｜ 深 度｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 机械行业量子科技专题 "十五五"重点发展方向，在不确定性中迈向未来 2026.3.4 分析师：王子杰 分析师：寇鸿基 执业证书编号：S0740522090001 执业证书编号：S0740525060005 1 核心观点 2 p 量子科技正走向应用实践，重塑未来：量子科技是利用量子的量子力学特性（如叠加、纠缠），进行信息处理、 传感和物质操控的技术。由于近年来量子技术的不断突破，量子科技的产业化进程已形成由上游核心硬件、中 游系统集成与下游行业应用构成的清晰产业链。根据麦肯锡预测，预计到2035年全球量子产业市场规模将达 到高达970亿美元。其中：1） 量子计算创造的全球价值可能在280亿-720亿美元之间。2）量子通信可能在 110亿-150亿美元之间。3） 量子传感可能在70亿-100亿美元之间，总计高达970亿美元。预计整体市场到 2040年或达到1980亿美元。 p 量子科技是战略级产业，国家间竞赛正悄然展开：从总量来看，美国在授权专利总量方面保持领先地位。而我 国在物理科学领域的量子技术出版物数量占比达42% ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘用 车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。 国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰 动不敏感的个股江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想 等；出口主线优先配置海外体系成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇 瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 回顾2025： 25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出口34.1万，同 比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。 展望2026： 我们预计26年重卡内销有望兑现乐观情形的80-85万，同比+3%。 继续推荐中国重 汽A/H+潍柴动力+福田汽车+一汽解放+中集车辆等重卡头部车企！ 客车观点更新： 2026年以旧换新政策落地，我们认为：1）客车政策略超预期，市场之前对于客车补贴 ...

【中泰机械】量子科技系列：在不确定性中超越未来 1. 量子科技行业整体定位与发展预期 • 行业定位与增速：量子科技是未来产业，2026年为催化大年，2025-2035年预计年均复合增速可达70%甚至80%以 上，以每年翻倍速度增长；商业化窗口期在未来5-10年。 • 国家战略与国际竞争：量子科技是国家定位的战略级产业，中美欧国家级竞赛持续；十五五规划将量子产业发展 提升至高位，政 【中泰机械】量子科技系列：在不确定性中超越未来 1. 量子科技行业整体定位与发展预期 • 行业定位与增速：量子科技是未来产业，2026年为催化大年，2025-2035年预计年均复合增速可达70%甚至80%以 上，以每年翻倍速度增长；商业化窗口期在未来5-10年。 · 稀释制冷机：超导路线核心配套设备，美国2023年后禁止对中国出口；国内量启技术实现突破，25年前半年营收 7000万元，预计25年净利润超5000万元，市占率31%；全球规模约5亿美元，若超导路线爆发，2030年市场空间或 达百亿美元量级。 · 超导量子芯片：加工依赖电子束曝光等设备，物料成本低但研发和工艺维护成本高，若超导路线成为核心，2030 年市场规模或达百亿美元 ...

分红方面，中集车辆A股上市后累计派现26.64亿元。近三年，累计派现16.55亿元。 中集车辆今年以来股价涨8.52%，近5个交易日跌3.03%，近20日涨2.16%，近60日涨2.27%。 资料显示，中集车辆(集团)股份有限公司位于香港湾仔皇后大道东248号大新金融中心40楼,广东省深圳 市南山区蛇口港湾大道2号，成立日期1996年8月29日，上市日期2021年7月8日，公司主营业务涉及半挂 车、专用车上装、冷藏厢式车厢体等生产。主营业务收入构成为：全球半挂车80.61%，上装、底盘及 牵引车17.14%，其他(补充)2.25%。 中集车辆所属申万行业为：汽车-商用车-商用载货车。所属概念板块包括：重卡、中盘均衡、冷链物 流、中盘等。 截至9月30日，中集车辆股东户数2.98万，较上期减少16.07%；人均流通股48786股，较上期增加 19.17%。2025年1月-9月，中集车辆实现营业收入150.12亿元，同比减少5.13%；归母净利润6.22亿元， 同比减少26.23%。 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月27日，中集车辆盘中下跌2.07%，截至13:02，报9.93元/股，成交6003.15万元，换手 ...

国家知识产权局信息显示，中集车辆（江门市）有限公司、中集车辆（集团）股份有限公司、中国国际 海运集装箱（集团）股份有限公司取得一项名为"罐车及围栏装置"的专利，授权公告号 CN115742934B，申请日期为2022年12月。 天眼查资料显示，中集车辆（江门市）有限公司，成立于2004年，位于江门市，是一家以从事汽车制造 业为主的企业。企业注册资本14421.5315万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中集车辆（江门市）有限 公司共对外投资了2家企业，参与招投标项目10次，专利信息138条，此外企业还拥有行政许可36个。 中集车辆（集团）股份有限公司，成立于1996年，位于深圳市，是一家以从事汽车制造业为主的企业。 企业注册资本187412.442万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中集车辆（集团）股份有限公司共对外投 资了70家企业，参与招投标项目12次，财产线索方面有商标信息12条，专利信息903条，此外企业还拥 有行政许可17个。 中国国际海运集装箱（集团）股份有限公司，成立于1980年，位于深圳市，是一家以从事金属制品业为 主的企业。企业注册资本539252.0385万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国国际海 ...

Market Performance - During the Spring Festival, developed markets saw a general rise, with MSCI Global up by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.8%[3] - The US 10Y Treasury yield increased significantly, while Japanese yields decreased the most[3] Profit Expectations - US stock earnings expectations were revised upward, with S&P 500 2026 EPS forecast increased from +12.7% to +12.9%[4] - Hong Kong's earnings expectations remained flat, with Hang Seng Index 2026 EPS forecast at +11.1%[4] - Eurozone earnings expectations were revised down from -3.1% to -3.0%[4] Economic Indicators - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US decreased, influenced by lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs[5] - The European Economic Surprise Index increased, driven by significant growth in German economic output[5] Industry Insights - The lithium carbonate market is expected to tighten due to Zimbabwe's ban on lithium concentrate exports, impacting global supply significantly[13] - In 2025, China imported 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a production of 148,800 tons of lithium carbonate[14] Real Estate Market - In Q4 2025, only 19% of cities showed signs of bottoming out in the real estate market, with over 90% of key cities experiencing a year-on-year decline in new home transactions[17] - New home prices are expected to continue declining, with first-tier cities facing a clearing cycle exceeding 23 months[20] Banking Sector - Large banks saw a significant increase in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a slowdown in credit growth, with large banks' short-term loans increasing by 4,197 billion yuan[35] - The overall loan amount decreased by 4,893 billion yuan year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing declines of 2,130 billion yuan and 2,763 billion yuan, respectively[38] Company Coverage - Samsung Medical's revenue is projected to reach 14.804 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4%[40] - The company is expected to maintain a target price of 32.4 yuan, reflecting a 24X PE valuation for 2026[40]

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting that macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions will significantly influence metal prices [2][3] - In the precious metals segment, a decline in risk appetite has led to price adjustments, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on a strong dollar and expectations of a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet contributing to this trend [2] - For copper, while macro pressures persist, the establishment of a strategic reserve for copper concentrate by the domestic non-ferrous industry association is expected to provide support against overseas supply disruptions [3] Group 2: Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market has seen strong demand, with a continuous reduction in inventory over the past four weeks, although there are concerns regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi [4] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into the electric vehicle supply chain to enhance competitive advantages [4] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continues to rise due to a tight supply-demand balance, with pre-holiday stocking needs supporting price increases [5] - Tungsten prices are experiencing upward pressure driven by supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies raising long-term contract prices significantly [5] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in January showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 46% in domestic heavy truck sales, driven by the successful implementation of the "old-for-new" policy [14][16] - The report forecasts that heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, with a slight year-on-year decline of 5.3%, while wholesale sales are expected to grow by 1.5% [15] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The demand for anticoagulant drugs is expanding, with the global market size reaching $52.9 billion in 2023 and projected to exceed $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease prevalence [11][12] - The report highlights the emergence of next-generation anticoagulants targeting Factor XI (FXI) as a promising area for development, with several candidates entering clinical trials [12][13] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The report on China Giant Glass indicates that the recent price increases in traditional electronic fabrics are expected to significantly enhance the company's profit margins, with a target price adjustment reflecting this trend [27][30] - 聚杰微纤 is positioned to benefit from its transition to high-end industrial applications, with projections indicating substantial revenue growth driven by technological advancements in the ultra-fine fiber sector [31][32]

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院冷藏车研究小组发布的《中国冷藏车行业市场需求前景与投资规 划分析报告》 行业主要上市公司：中集车辆(301039)、中国重汽(000951)、福田汽车(600166)、东风汽车(600006)、江 淮汽车(600418)、江铃汽车(000550)、一汽解放(000800)、动力新科(600841)等。 本文核心数据：行业整体融资;行业投融资轮次 1、冷藏车行业投融资活跃度呈波动态势 根据IT桔子库，2015-2025年期间，我国冷藏车行业投融资事件数量呈现波动态势，2024年融资事件为8 件，2025年截至12月，投融资事件数量为10件。2018年，冷藏车行业投融资金额较高，达到182亿元， 其余年份较为平均。 注：上述统计时间截至2025年12月5日，下同。 2、冷藏车行业投融资集中于战略投资 从平均单笔融资金额来看，2018-2025年，冷藏车行业平均单笔融资金额呈波动趋势。2024年平均单笔 融资金额仅0.94亿元，2025年中国冷藏车行业平均单笔融资金额略升至1.25亿元。 从冷藏车的投资轮次分析，目前冷藏车行业的融资轮次中，主要集中在A轮、战略 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Heavy-Duty Trucks Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector, with a positive outlook for 2026, driven by various factors including policy support and market demand [2][4][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Market Outlook**: The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to see significant growth, with wholesale sales projected to increase by approximately 10% year-on-year in 2026, potentially reaching over 1.25 million units [4][19]. 2. **Sales Performance**: January 2026 saw wholesale sales of 105,000 units, a 46% year-on-year increase, indicating strong market demand [8][19]. 3. **Policy Support**: The ongoing transition from National IV to National V emission standards is expected to drive demand, with an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 trucks eligible for replacement [4][19]. 4. **Export Growth**: The export market is anticipated to grow by over 15% in 2026, with strong demand from regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia [6][19]. 5. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand is projected to contribute significantly to sales, with expectations of 800,000 to 850,000 units sold domestically in 2026 [19]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: The balance of supply and demand, along with the exit of older models, is crucial for the industry's growth trajectory [7][19]. 7. **Profitability Outlook**: The profitability of heavy-duty truck manufacturers is expected to improve as market conditions stabilize and demand increases [20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technological Advancements**: The industry is witnessing a shift towards electric and alternative fuel vehicles, with BEV penetration rates expected to stabilize between 30% and 35% in 2026 [16][20]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: Key players such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC), Foton Motor, and Weichai Power are highlighted as strong performers in the market [17][20]. 3. **Market Challenges**: The industry has faced pressures on profitability due to competitive pricing and regulatory changes, but these challenges are expected to ease as the market recovers [20]. 4. **Long-term Trends**: The transition to newer emission standards and the potential introduction of National VII standards will likely drive further demand for new trucks in the coming years [14][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call regarding the heavy-duty truck industry, emphasizing a robust growth outlook supported by favorable market conditions and policy frameworks.