投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面，春假假期客流量、消费数据总体向好：全国春运跨区域客运创历史新高，单 日出行量 2 月 20 日突破约 3.5 亿人次，前 20 天累计跨区域出行已超 50 亿人次，整个春运 预计可达约 9.5 亿人次规模；假期消费稳步增长，主要商圈零售与餐饮销售同比提升逾 8%， 部分免税及服务消费显著增加，旅游与文化娱乐消费保持活跃，总体呈现"消费景气度提升" 的季节性特征，更全数据等待后续相关部门披露。总体而言，2 月处于经济数据和政策真空 期，短期市场焦点或将转向开年经济成色以及 3 月初两会的政策预期。 贵金属：美国关税不确定性加大，金银价格走强 国内春节长假期间，国际贵金属价格维持震荡偏强走势，国际金价重返 5200 美元上方， 银价走势更强，国际银价再度站上 87 美元/盎司。美国经济整体仍具韧性，但部分增速不及 预期。通胀方面，回落进程受阻、粘性特征凸显，12 月美国 PCE 价格指数同比升至 2.9%、 环比 0.4%，核心 PCE 同比升至 3%，均高于预期，核心 PCE 结束连续走平态势反弹，仍高 于美联储 2%目标。美联储 1 月议息会议纪要显 ...

Group 1 - STRABAG's subsidiary ZÜBLIN has secured two contracts from Codelco for the development of the Chuquicamata Underground Mine "Mina Norte" in Chile, with a combined value of approximately €800 million ($944 million) [1] - The project aims to convert Chuquicamata from an open-pit operation to an underground mine, scheduled for completion in 2031, marking one of STRABAG's largest mining projects in Chile [1][2] - The scope includes constructing over 54 kilometers of tunnels and related infrastructure, with around 1,200 workers involved during the construction period [2] Group 2 - STRABAG has nearly four decades of continuous operation in Chile, with experience in major mines such as El Teniente and Candelaria, and has completed over €6 billion in projects across Chile's principal mining regions [3] - STRABAG executive board member Siegfried Wanker emphasized that the Mina Norte project will enhance STRABAG's role as a trusted partner in large-scale mining and expand its presence in markets outside Europe [4] - ZÜBLIN has previously undertaken complex tunneling projects, achieving tunnel advances of up to 1,900 meters per month under contracts like Chuquicamata Subterránea [4] Group 3 - STRABAG's Polish subsidiary recently obtained two contracts totaling approximately €147 million for road modernization works in Poland, further establishing its role in the country's mobility infrastructure sector [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers individual trend intensities for various commodities: - **Positive Trends**: Gold, silver, tin, aluminum, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, logs, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, short fibers, bottle chips, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [2][18][26][30][36][60][63][71][143][156][173] - **Neutral Trends**: Copper, zinc, lead, alumina, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), double - offset paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, peanuts [8][11][15][22][74][77][80][83][89][94][97][103][107][110][114][123][126][128][147][152][161][164][168][186] - **Negative Trends**: Iron ore, eggs, live pigs [43][178][181] 2. Core Views - **Commodity - Specific Views**: Each commodity's performance is influenced by its unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and macro - economic and industry news. For example, gold and silver showed positive trends during the holiday period; iron ore faced poor demand expectations; and lithium carbonate had a tight supply - demand situation [2][43][36] - **Macro - economic Impact**: Global events such as Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and AI - related economic impacts have affected market sentiment and commodity prices [7] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Oscillated upward during the holiday. The price of domestic and international gold contracts decreased, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings decreased slightly [2][5] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday gap - up opening. The price of silver contracts decreased significantly, and trading volume and positions also changed [2][5] - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both showed a generally upward - trending pattern. The prices of platinum and palladium contracts rose, and trading volume and positions changed [26] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rebounded as the US stock market rebounded. Supply - demand data showed changes in inventory and price differentials. Macro - economic and industry news included tariff policies and production data [8] - **Zinc**: Underwent wide - range adjustments. Price, trading volume, and inventory data showed certain fluctuations. News related to tariff policies also affected the market [11] - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory restricted price rebounds. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, along with relevant news [15] - **Tin**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data changed, and there were some macro - economic and industry news [18][19] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the spring rally. Alumina had increased maintenance, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. A large amount of fundamental data was provided [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Although not the main focus, some related information was mentioned. For example, the price of Brent crude oil futures increased, and it affected the cost of downstream products [64][66] - **P - xylene and PTA**: Had strong cost support, and the market was expected to rise after the holiday. Supply - demand and cost factors were analyzed [63][64][69] - **MEG**: Traded in a range, with a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Inventory and supply - demand information was provided [63][67][70] - **Rubber**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some industry news [71] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Was expected to trade in a short - term range. The price, trading volume, and some fundamental data were provided [74] - **LLDPE**: Had strong cost support due to geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. Supply - demand and market conditions were analyzed [77] - **PP**: The C3 raw material was strong, and PDH maintenance remained high. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were provided [80] - **Caustic Soda**: Was mainly trading in a range with cost support. Supply - demand and inventory information were presented [83] - **Pulp**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, along with industry news [89] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [94] - **Methanol**: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, and there was some market news [97] - **Urea**: The price center shifted upward. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [103] - **Styrene**: Traded in a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some market news [107] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [110] - **LPG**: Had strong short - term geopolitical disturbances. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - **Propylene**: The fundamentals remained tight, and attention should be paid to post - holiday restocking dynamics. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - **PVC**: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [123] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil decreased slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [126] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was difficult to decline in the short term due to production cuts, and soybean oil had limited driving force from US soybeans and rebounded within a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [156] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Soybean meal might rebound and oscillate, and soybeans' spot price increased to catch up, with the futures market oscillating. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [161] - **Corn**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [164] - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [168] - **Cotton**: Reached a new high for the year. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [173] - **Eggs**: Traded in a weak - oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [178] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price was lower than expected, and it was difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [181] - **Peanuts**: Traded in an oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [186] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [128] Fibers - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: Had cost support and were expected to be strong in the short term. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [143] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: Should be observed. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [147]

近期由于COMEX铜和LME铜之间的价差转负，美国虹吸效应不再，全球铜显性库存持续累积，假期期 间LME铜库存增加近4万吨，国内下游企业放假，机构统计的国内精炼铜社会库存也出现大幅攀升一 幕，节后下游需求将开始恢复，但仍需跟踪下游复产速度。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，近期宏观驱动占比较大，整体市场风险偏好有企稳迹象。但铜自身微观 层面等待旺季验证，CL价差不利虹吸且LME交仓，但未来元素紧张预期尚无法扭转和证伪。综上，铜 价重心可能回归原区间震荡运行，下沿位置较高。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅飘红，日内涨幅略有扩大，收盘上涨0.72%。期市氛围乐观，但目前全球铜显性库存呈现 持续累积姿态，传统需求淡季背景下，沪铜涨幅受限，后续需关注国内下游复工情况。 智利国营铜公司Codelco预计，其最大的铜矿——El Teniente的产量将在未来几年内维持在目前的低位水 平，因为这家国有企业正努力应对智利数十年来最严重的矿难带来的持续影响。目前海外铜矿供需紧张 态势延续，假期前夕国内铜精矿现货加工费落至-50美元/干吨附近。 ...

上述官员表示，在经历了运营和项目挫折后，Codelco公司正寻求其他矿山的帮助，以实现公司整体产量逐步恢复的目标。 智利国营铜公司Codelco预计，其最大的铜矿——El Teniente的产量将在未来几年内维持在目前的低位水平，因为这家国有企业正努力应对智利数十年来最严 重的矿难带来的持续影响。 该公司一位官员近日表示，直至本十年末，El Teniente铜矿的年产量可能将维持在30万吨左右。这低于2024年的约35.6万吨产量。7月份发生的岩爆造成6人 死亡，迫使该公司重新考虑其在更深矿区的开采计划。 这座巨型地下矿山产量停滞的前景凸显了供应紧张的现状，而供应紧张正是推高铜价至历史新高的原因之一。印尼和刚果民主共和国的主要矿山也正在从严 重的生产中断中恢复，与此同时，在电气化推动对这种电线金属需求不断增长之际，整个行业普遍面临着矿石质量下降的挑战。 此次审计导致三名高管被解雇；矿业监管机构提起刑事诉讼；检察官下令扣押其中两名被解雇高管的电子设备，以调查Codelco公司是否应对这些死亡事件 承担刑事责任。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 与此 ...

Teck Resources Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Teck Resources (NYSE: TECK) - **Industry**: Mining, specifically focused on copper and zinc operations Key Highlights 1. **Merger with Anglo American**: Teck is progressing towards a merger with Anglo American, which is expected to position the combined entity as a top five global copper producer with over 1.2 million tons of annual copper production supported by six world-class copper assets [3][4] 2. **Regulatory Approvals**: The merger has received completion and antitrust approvals from multiple jurisdictions including Canada, Chile, Australia, Japan, the EU, and the US, with only two approvals remaining [4] 3. **Operational Review**: A comprehensive operational review was completed, leading to a strong operational performance in 2025 and reaffirmation of annual production guidance for 2026 to 2028 [4][11] 4. **Financial Performance**: In 2025, Teck reported a 48% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $4.3 billion, driven by higher copper prices and increased by-product revenue, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 50% in Q4 [5][6] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: Teck returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends in 2025, maintaining a robust balance sheet and returning to a net cash position by year-end [6] Operational Insights 1. **Quebrada Blanca (QB) Performance**: QB's quarterly copper production reached 55,000 tons, with significant progress on the TMF development work, expected to enable steady state operations by the end of 2026 [5][9] 2. **Production Guidance**: Teck reaffirmed its annual production guidance for 2026 to 2028, with expectations of further growth in copper production and significant operating cash flows [11][12] 3. **Copper Price Outlook**: The copper price reached record highs in Q4 2025, with a quarterly average exceeding $5 per pound, and a consensus price increase of 35% from $4 to $5.35 per pound for 2026 [13][14] Market Dynamics 1. **Demand Drivers**: The demand for copper is expected to outpace economic growth, driven by urbanization, electrification, and the expansion of the electrical grid, with a near double-digit CAGR anticipated through the end of the decade [16] 2. **Supply Constraints**: Existing mine production is expected to decline starting in 2027, with limited growth options beyond 2029, creating a compelling long-term outlook for copper [17][18] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: Teck plans to unlock additional copper production through optimization projects, including a potential increase of 175,000 tons per annum from processing higher-grade ore from Quellaveco [27] Strategic Focus 1. **Critical Minerals Strategy**: Teck has refocused its portfolio on critical minerals, exiting its energy and steelmaking coal businesses, and completing the QB2 project, which is expected to generate substantial cash flow for decades [18][19] 2. **Value Creation from Merger**: The merger with Anglo American is expected to deliver $800 million in annual corporate synergies and $1.4 billion in annual underlying EBITDA uplift from combined operations [20][21] 3. **Future Growth**: Teck aims to balance capital investment in growth projects with shareholder returns, focusing on high-return opportunities within the combined portfolio post-merger [29] Additional Considerations 1. **Chinese Regulatory Review**: The merger is undergoing a normal regulatory review process in China, with no anticipated changes to the expected timeline of 12-18 months for completion [32] 2. **Operational Stability**: The company is focused on maintaining operational stability and executing its plans effectively, with significant improvements noted in the TMF development work [24][25]

Codelco expects output at its biggest copper mine to be stuck around current reduced levels for several years as the state-owned company grapples with the widening fallout from Chile’s deadliest mine accident in decades https://t.co/nm9apqk7BD ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an underlying EBITDA increase of 9% to $25.4 billion, driven by strong operational performance and productivity improvements [6][12] - Stable underlying earnings were recorded at $10.9 billion, with a dividend payout of 60%, equating to $6.5 billion returned to shareholders [6][13] - Net debt increased to $14.4 billion, reflecting the Arcadium acquisition, but remains manageable with a gearing ratio of 18% [13][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper equivalent production increased by 8%, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite, with copper EBITDA more than doubling to $7.4 billion [5][20] - Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA, with unit costs in line with guidance at $23.50 per ton [20] - Aluminum maintained stability, with EBITDA up 20%, benefiting from stronger market conditions [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 9%, with copper ending the year 44% higher than the previous year [14] - The demand for lithium has surged, with prices increasing significantly, reflecting a strong market recovery [14][60] - The iron ore market remains supported by Chinese steel export growth, with a structurally balanced market [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for copper equivalent production through the end of the decade, focusing on operational excellence and cost reductions [7][10] - A significant portion of the exploration budget (85%) is now directed towards copper, indicating a strategic focus on this commodity [9] - The company is committed to capital discipline, with rigorous capital allocation guiding all investment decisions [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the need for improved safety measures following a tragic incident at the Simandou site, emphasizing the importance of safety in operations [3][4] - The leadership expressed confidence in achieving production targets, including the ramp-up to 60 million tons per annum of iron ore from Simandou [9][58] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in aluminum, lithium, and copper, despite some market challenges [7][14] Other Important Information - The company is actively testing the market for asset sales, including RTIT and the Borates businesses, to generate cash proceeds of $5 billion to $10 billion [10] - The management has restructured its organization to enhance operational efficiency and accountability [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Glencore discussions and coal ownership - Management discussed the valuation gap in the Glencore talks, emphasizing a focus on underlying asset quality and potential synergies [30][39] Question: Opportunities in streaming agreements - Management indicated that while there are options for streaming agreements, the focus remains on systematically evaluating the best capital release opportunities [32][33] Question: Cost-cutting opportunities in Pilbara - Management confirmed that the $650 million productivity program is expected to exceed initial targets, with ongoing efforts to identify further cost reductions across all business lines [34][35] Question: Iron ore negotiations and market dynamics - Management acknowledged ongoing conversations with CMRG and other market participants, focusing on securing supply and understanding customer needs [74][75] Question: Geopolitical risk considerations - Management highlighted the importance of value assessment and risk mitigation strategies when considering investments in higher-risk regions [92][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying EBITDA increased by 9% to $25.4 billion, driven by strong operational performance and productivity improvements [4][10] - Stable underlying earnings of $10.9 billion, with a dividend payout of 60%, equating to $6.5 billion returned to shareholders [4][22] - Net debt rose to $14.4 billion, reflecting the Arcadium acquisition, but remains manageable with a gearing of 18% [11][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper equivalent production increased by 8%, setting annual records for both copper and bauxite [4][10] - Copper EBITDA more than doubled to $7.4 billion, driven by higher prices and rising volumes, with shipments up 60% at Oyu Tolgoi [18][19] - Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA, with unit costs in line with guidance at $23.50 per ton [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 9%, with copper ending the year 44% higher than the previous year [12][18] - Iron ore remains supported by Chinese steel export growth, with a structurally balanced market [11][12] - Lithium markets showed strong momentum, with battery storage demand emerging as a fast-growing pillar of the energy transition [12][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a 3% CAGR for copper equivalent production through to the end of the decade, focusing on operational excellence and cost reductions [5][6] - A disciplined approach to capital allocation is emphasized, with all projects required to create shareholder value [8][9] - The company is prioritizing copper in its exploration budget, directing 85% towards copper projects [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need for improved safety practices following a recent tragedy at Simandou, emphasizing the importance of safe operations [2][3] - The company is confident in achieving its production targets at Simandou despite recent challenges [59] - Future growth is expected to be driven by strong demand for aluminum, lithium, and copper, with supply constraints in the sector [5][12] Other Important Information - The company is actively testing the market for asset sales, including RTIT and the Borates businesses, aiming for $5 billion-$10 billion in cash proceeds [8] - The company has a robust project pipeline to extend growth into the 2030s, with a focus on copper [7][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Glencore discussions and coal ownership - Management assessed the transaction with a focus on underlying asset quality and potential value creation, ultimately deciding against the merger due to limited synergies [10][39] Question: Opportunities in streaming agreements - The company has various options to release capital across its portfolio, including potential streaming agreements, but will prioritize value-driven decisions [31][32] Question: Cost-cutting opportunities in Pilbara - The $650 million productivity program is expected to exceed initial targets, with systematic reviews across all business units to identify further cost reductions [33][34] Question: Iron ore negotiations and market dynamics - Ongoing conversations with customers focus on securing supply and pricing, reflecting the evolving iron ore market [76][77] Question: Geopolitical risk considerations - The company evaluates opportunities in high-risk regions with a focus on value and potential returns, using higher discount rates for riskier projects [96][100]

Core Insights - The bioleaching market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase from $10.14 billion in 2024 to $21.37 billion by 2033, driven by rising demand for copper and critical minerals [7] - Major companies, including Rio Tinto and BiotaTec, are investing in bioleaching technologies to enhance copper extraction from low-grade ores and industrial waste [4][19] - Despite the potential, the adoption of bioleaching is slow due to high initial capital costs and a focus on low-grade ores, which limits its commercial viability [6][12] Bioleaching Techniques - Heterotrophic bioleaching utilizes microorganisms that metabolize sugars to extract copper from non-sulphidic materials like oxide ores [1] - Chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms oxidize iron and sulphur to produce soluble copper ions from copper ores [2][3] - Two primary methods of bioleaching are heap leaching, which is cost-effective but slower, and vat leaching, which offers higher recovery rates but at a higher cost [9][10] Market Dynamics - The copper bioleaching market holds over 47.8% of the total bioleaching market revenue share, indicating its dominance [4] - Countries like Chile are leading in bioleaching commercialization, using it to extend the operational life of mines by making lower-grade ores profitable [14] - In contrast, European markets show sluggishness in adopting bioleaching technologies, despite interest from mining operators [15] Commercialization Challenges - Many bioleaching companies face difficulties in reaching commercial feasibility, with some projects getting stuck at the corporate level due to lack of financing [16][17] - The economic viability of bioleaching is closely tied to the concentration of metals in the ores being processed [13] - BacTech and other companies are exploring downstream opportunities and diversifying their operations to include other metals and waste materials [17][20] Versatility and Future Prospects - The versatility of bioleaching is crucial for its success, with applications expanding beyond copper to include rare earth elements and industrial waste [20][22] - Bioleaching can also provide solutions for tailings management, contributing to decarbonization and additional revenue streams [24][27] - Companies like ekolive are focusing on agricultural applications of bioleaching, finding commercial success in producing biofertilizers [28]