Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in copper inventories, reaching a one-year low, which may lead to a price surge due to supply constraints [1] - Chile's copper production forecast for 2025 is expected to decrease, contributing to the tightening supply situation in the market [1] - Additionally, the suspension of operations at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo further exacerbates the supply issues, potentially igniting the next round of price increases [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has received approximately 15,000 tons of copper delivery requests, leading to the lowest inventory levels in a year [1] - Glencore is the main trader behind these delivery requests, planning to transport Russian copper to China [1] - The Chinese market is experiencing tightening supply, with premiums for certain grades of copper reaching the highest levels in over five years [1] Group 2 - The current supply constraints in copper are revealing deeper structural issues, alongside short-term trade policy impacts [3] - Short-term supply pressures are expected to increase, with copper demand showing non-linear fluctuations due to unstable economic expectations [3] - Long-term supply constraints remain valid, with copper mine supply facing timing issues rather than total volume problems [3] Group 3 - The incremental copper supply this year is expected to primarily come from the ramp-up of projects that began operations in 2024, with fewer new projects being launched [4] - The annual growth rate for copper mines in 2025 is projected to decrease from 2.4% to 1.8%, corresponding to an increase of 340,000 tons [5]

著名"金属交易员"：铜价将创历史新高，再涨1/3！ 前托克铜业掌门人Kostas Bintas预测，铜价有望再上涨三分之一。 尽管LME铜价今年已飙升12%，Bintas近期在接受采访时表示，预计铜价仍可能继续飙升至12,000美元或13,000美元每吨的历史新高，比当前水平 高出三分之一。Kostas Bintas曾把托克集团的铜业务做到全球领先，如今他担任能源交易商Mercuria金属业务的负责人。 在上海期货交易所，铜价已进入一年多以来的最大逆价差，期限结构呈现明显的远月下降趋势，近期合约的交易价格高于远期合约，这表明供应 紧张。 此外，关税威胁已导致美国废铜出口枯竭。全球约三分之一的铜产量来自废铜，而废铜通常作为市场缓冲，在价格高时增加，在价格低时减少。 尽管美国尚未对进口铜征收广泛关税，但美国国内铜价已飙升至每吨1400美元以上，高于世界其他地区，这促使贸易商将所有可用的铜运往美 国。宾塔斯说： 就每吨铜的利润而言，我从未见过如此美妙的交易机会。 全球铜供应紧张现象初显 铜期货贴水和废铜出口下降，初步显示出当前全球市场铜供应紧张的迹象。 Mercuria研究主管Nick Snowdon表示： 到2月 ...