铜：棋至中局，稳定性凸显 20260128 摘要 XT 合约价差飙升至 100 美元，创 1998 年来最大单日涨幅，导致 COMEX 与 LME 价差转负，北美隐性库存增加缓解 LME 低库存，短期 内铜价相对其他品种偏弱。 长期来看，美国或通过高价维持电解铜进口优势，远端虹吸效应持续。 全球铜矿生产干扰率高，如智利 Capstone 铜金矿罢工，限制供应。预 计春节前后铜价横盘整理，长期供应紧张和电力需求增长支撑铜价。 铜需求与电力紧密相关，新能源和 AI 技术革命带动电力需求。美国人均 用铜量与人均 GDP 呈 M 型趋势，AI 技术开支大幅上行，类似 90 年代 互联网周期，电力相关用铜需求将持续增长。 过去十年铜矿资本支出偏低，新扩建项目不足以弥补大规模新矿山开发 所需产能。高利润背景下劳资关系紧张及资源国保护主义政策提高生产 干扰率，供应端长期受限。 全球范围内铜供应存在结构性紧缺将持续存在。建议关注紫金、洛钼、 五矿等资源储备丰富的公司，以及中国有色矿业、铜陵、江铜等自给率 提升显著的企业。 紫金收购联合黄金矿区后黄金产量有望提升，洛钼完成巴西黄金矿山收 购交割，为公司提供利润支撑。在当前宏观复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that Minmetals Resources' preliminary performance for 2025 shows core earnings in line with expectations, with operational fundamentals improving [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach between $700 million and $730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - After accounting for an impairment of $280 million to $300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be between $500 million and $520 million [1] Impairment Reasons - The impairment is primarily due to the local cobalt plant being in maintenance mode due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] Operational Stability - Other major mining operations under Minmetals Resources, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are maintaining stable production [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply tightening and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] Future Outlook - Despite the short-term impact of the impairment on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, and major operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1] - The future trajectory of profit growth is expected to remain clear, with a positive outlook maintained for Minmetals Resources, benefiting from strong copper prices and improved operational efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that Minmetals Resources' preliminary performance for 2025 shows core earnings in line with expectations, with operational fundamentals improving [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach between $700 million and $730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - After accounting for an impairment of $280 million to $300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be between $500 million and $520 million [1] Impairment Reasons - The impairment is primarily due to the local cobalt plant being in maintenance mode due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] Operational Stability - Other major mining operations under Minmetals Resources, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are maintaining stable production [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply being tight and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] Future Outlook - Despite the short-term impact of the impairment on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, and major operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1] - The future trajectory of profit growth is expected to remain clear, with a positive outlook maintained by Morgan Stanley, anticipating benefits from strong copper prices and improved operational efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK), has entered into a shipping framework agreement with Minmetals Shipping for maritime services related to the transportation of its products, which constitutes a continuing connected transaction due to the relationship with its ultimate controlling shareholder, China Minmetals [1]. Group 1 - The shipping framework agreement was signed on January 28, 2026 [1]. - Minmetals Shipping is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Minmetals, the ultimate controlling shareholder of the company [1]. - The agreement is classified as a continuing connected transaction under the listing rules due to the relationship with China Minmetals [1].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公佈之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦 不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任 何損失承擔任何責任。 MMG LIMITED 五礦資源有限公司 （於香港註冊成立之有限公司） (股份代號：1208) 持續關連交易 航運框架協議 航運框架協議 於二零二六年一月二十八日，本公司與Minmetals Shipping 訂立航運框架協議，就Minmetals Shipping 為本集團之產品付運提供海運服務。 Minmetals Shipping 為本公司最終控股股東中國五礦之全資附屬公司，故根據上市規則為中國 五礦之聯繫人及本公司之關連人士。因此，航運框架協議構成本公司之持續關連交易。 由於航運框架協議涉及之所有有關百分比率超過 0.1%，但所有比率均低於 5%，故交易構成一 項持續關連交易，根據上市規則第十四 A 章，須遵守申報、年度審核及公佈規定，惟獲豁免遵 守獨立股東批准之規定。 航運框架協議 作為日常及一般業務過程之一部分，本集團向多個航運服務供應商及／或經紀商租用海運服務以 付運其產品，包括銅、鋅及鉛 ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 贵金属领衔，金属全面上行 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 继续推荐铜铝春季行情。商品端，降息预期与美国囤铜共振背景下，铜铝商品短期依然强势， 中期经济底部+供需结构优化，铜铝商品弹性可期：1）短期，尽管 CL 铜价差消失使得套利盘 往美国搬库存动力减弱，但本轮导致美国囤铜的本质动机——关税担忧，并未改变，故目前美 国囤铜趋势未改，叠加下周联储主席人选可能公布，因此，在当前宏观、微观多重催化共振下， 铜价仍易冲高，进而撑开了铝等补涨工业金属更大空间。2）中期，美联储引领全球趋势宽松促 进铜铝周期上行。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Minmetals Resources (01208) has released preliminary performance for 2025, showing core earnings in line with expectations, and the company's operational fundamentals are improving, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 10 [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach USD 700 million to USD 730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - After accounting for an impairment of USD 280 million to USD 300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be USD 500 million to USD 520 million [1] Operational Insights - The impairment is primarily due to local cobalt plants being on maintenance due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] - Other major mining operations under Minmetals Resources, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are maintaining stable operations [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply tight and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] - Despite the short-term impact of impairments on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, and major operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Minmetals Resources (01208) has shown core earnings performance in line with expectations, with operational fundamentals improving, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 10 [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach USD 700 million to USD 730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - After accounting for an impairment of USD 280 million to USD 300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be USD 500 million to USD 520 million [1] Operational Insights - The impairment is primarily due to local cobalt plants being on maintenance due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] - Other major mining operations, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are reported to be operating steadily [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply tight and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] - Despite short-term impacts on net profit due to impairments, the company's core profitability remains robust, and operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Minmetals Resources is expected to achieve core earnings of $700 million to $730 million for early 2025, aligning with the bank's expectations [1] - After accounting for an impairment of $280 million to $300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be between $500 million and $520 million [1] Summary by Category - **Earnings Forecast** - Core earnings are projected to reach $700 million to $730 million, consistent with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] - Net profit is expected to be between $500 million and $520 million after impairment adjustments [1] - **Operational Performance** - Operations at key mining sites, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, remain stable with normal production ongoing [1] - The company is anticipated to benefit from strong copper prices and improved operational efficiency [1] - **Market Conditions** - Global copper supply is tight, and a weaker dollar is expected to support high copper prices, providing strong backing for overall profitability [1] - Despite short-term impacts from impairments on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, with major operational challenges being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1]

记者｜董鹏 编辑｜朱益民 紫金矿业（601899.SH）开年首单并购，选择了加拿大的金矿企业。 1月26日，紫金矿业公告，计划通过其控股子公司紫金黄金国际，以44加元/股的现金价格，收 购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。 后者核心资产，为位于非洲马里、科特迪瓦与埃塞俄比亚的多个金矿，相关项目预计2025年产 金11.7～12.4吨，后续经过改扩建及新建产能释放，到2029年产金将提升至25吨。 紫金矿业2024年调整后的五年产量规划为，2028年矿产金目标为100-110吨，而在2025年公司 矿产金已经达到90吨。 后续， 一旦对联合黄金的收购完成并实现并表， 紫金矿业将提前两年达成百吨产金目标。 此外， 近两年随着金、铜价格的上涨，该公司外部并购也呈现出了明显的"项目大型化"特 点，新购金矿项目预期产量普遍在5吨/年以上，并且百亿级收购案明显增加。 根据21世纪经济报道记者此前不完全统计，截至2025年12月下旬，包括紫金矿业、洛阳钼 业、江西铜业等在内的多家企业，全年海外金矿资产收购总额达到297亿元。 而紫金矿业上述单笔并购金额，便已经与去年中资矿企海外" ...