证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 16 日 证券分析师 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,237 | 1,515 | 1,654 | 2,130 | 2,529 | | 同比增长率（%） | 57.66% | 22.43% | 9.19% | 28.81% | 18.71% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 252 | 350 | 389 | 493 | 586 | | 同比增长率（%） | 22.28% | 38.95% | 11.10% | 26.64% | 18.94% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.90 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.76 | 2.09 | | ROE（%） | 11.43% | 13.76% | 13.44% | 14.77% | 15.18% | | 市盈率（P/E） | 15.85 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of escalating tariffs on trade flows, particularly benefiting transshipment trade between Asia and Latin America. The report suggests focusing on shipping and port-related stocks due to the significant tariff increases imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, indicating a mixed trend in shipping rates across different routes [6] - The report notes a decline in bulk shipping rates, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropping by 15.5% week-on-week, reflecting weaker demand in the dry bulk market [7] - The express delivery sector continues to show robust growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 18% in March 2025, driven by seasonal demand and expanding service offerings [8] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a significant increase in domestic flight operations and passenger numbers in the first quarter of 2025 [9][11] Summary by Sections Shipping and Maritime - The report indicates a tight supply in the oil tanker segment due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, with expectations of sustained demand growth driven by geopolitical factors [11] - The report emphasizes the ongoing green transition in shipping, with a focus on the need for fleet renewal and the potential for rising ship prices due to limited newbuilding capacity [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery market is experiencing strong demand, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [11] - The report identifies key players in the express delivery sector, including ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [11] Aviation - The aviation sector is witnessing a significant rebound in passenger traffic, with a 2.1-fold increase in domestic flight operations in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [9][11] - The report notes the introduction of a new tax refund policy for international travelers, which is expected to enhance consumer spending and boost airport revenues [9] Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics benefiting from strategic transformations and operational efficiencies [11] - The report highlights the potential for growth in chemical logistics, driven by increasing demand and tightening industry regulations [11]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 04 月 14 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|特朗普关税 2.0 冲击与海内外资产表现梳理》 特朗普政府的对等关税出台后，中方进行三次反制。当前中美对对方加征 的关税均为 125%，而 4 月 9 日的 90 日暂缓举措显示美方态度出现缓和迹 象；美国当地时间 4 月 11 日，美国宣布部分商品免征"对等关税"，表 明美方的态度继续出现缓和。2、本周海外仍然呈现出一定的流动性风险 特征，周中过后美债、美元受到抛售，美股出现弱企稳。VIX 指数进一步 冲高，于 4 月 8 日升至 52.3，随后震荡回落，美元信用受到关税影响， 危机模式下美债遭遇抛售，美债利率在流动性踩踏下进一步走高，10 年 期美债利率于 4 月 11 日升至 4.48%，期限利差快速走阔，收益率曲线陡 峭化，中债则延续 3 月中旬以来的下行趋势，回落至 1.6%水平，因而中美 利差快速走阔，人民币贬值。3、A 股超跌后企稳修复，4 月 7 日市场大 跌，创业板指跌 12.5%，创史上最大单日跌幅，沪指收跌跌 7.34%失守 3100 点，全市场超 2900 个股跌停。行业配置建议：赛点 2. ...

调整盈利预测，维持"买入"评级 外贸化学品船租金在回调 兴通股份的船舶运力有望继续增加，但是内外贸危化品船运价回调拖累业绩，下调2025 年预测归母净 利润至4.06 亿元（原预测5.24 亿元）；引入2026-27 年预测归母净利润分别为4.82、5.29 亿元。维持"买 入"评级。 2024 年，全球化学品船租金和东亚部分航线化学品船运价，都处于历史较高水平，2024 年下半年都开 始回调。2024 年，5 年船龄的2 万载重吨化学品船价格在历史较高水平，2025 年初开始小幅回调。根据 Clarkson 统计数据，我们预计2025-26 年全球化学品船运力增速4.9%、5.7%，略高于2024 年的3.4%，可 能给未来外贸化学品船运价带来压力。2024 年兴通股份的国外业务毛利率29%，如果运价下跌，航次 租船业务的毛利可能先受影响。 风险提示：化工品产量波动，国内化学品出口不及预期，危化品运输出现安全事故，燃油价格大幅上 涨，测算具有主观性仅供参考。 内贸化学品运价在历史相对低位 2023 和2024 年，兴通股份的运力规模分别增长48%和12%，带动营业收入分别增长58%和22%、归母净 利润分别 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The domestic chemical shipping market is experiencing a decline in freight rates, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2024. However, the company's domestic business gross margin is expected to improve to 40.6% from 36% in 2023, attributed to long-term contracts with major clients [1][4]. - Global chemical shipping rates are at historically high levels but are expected to start declining in the second half of 2024. The company's foreign business gross margin is projected at 29% for 2024, which may be impacted by falling freight rates [2][4]. - The company's shipping capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a 48% increase in 2023 and a 12% increase in 2024, leading to revenue growth of 58% and 22% respectively, and net profit growth of 22% and 39% [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1,858.22 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 405.88 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.83% [5][22]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to be 783.00 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit margins [5][22]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected net profit of 4.06 billion yuan for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 5.24 billion yuan, while introducing new profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [4][22]. Market Context - The domestic chemical shipping market is nearing a supply-demand inflection point, with some major shipowners shifting capacity to foreign trade routes due to declining domestic rates [1][2]. - The global chemical shipping capacity is expected to grow at rates of 4.9% and 5.7% in 2025-26, which may exert pressure on future freight rates [2][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The domestic chemical shipping market is experiencing a decline in freight rates, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2024. However, the company's domestic business gross margin is expected to rise to 40.6% in 2024, up from 36% in 2023, likely due to long-term contracts with major clients [1]. - Global chemical shipping rates are at historically high levels but are expected to start declining in the second half of 2024. The company's foreign business gross margin is projected to be 29% in 2024, which may be impacted by falling freight rates [2]. - The company's shipping capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a 48% increase in 2023 and a 12% increase in 2024, leading to revenue growth of 58% and 22%, respectively. Net profit is projected to grow by 22% in 2023 and 39% in 2024 [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025, lowering the expected net profit to 406 million yuan from a previous estimate of 524 million yuan, while introducing profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 482 million yuan and 529 million yuan, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,237.27 million yuan in 2023 to 1,858.22 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 57.66%, 22.43%, and 22.68% for the respective years. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 252.20 million yuan in 2023 to 405.88 million yuan in 2025 [5][21]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.90 yuan in 2023 to 1.45 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 15.95 to 9.91 over the same period [5][21]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,798.79 million yuan in 2023 to 5,161.30 million yuan in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.19% in 2024 [21][22]. Basic Data - The total share capital of the company is 280 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 4,023.60 million yuan. The net asset per share is 9.10 yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its 2024 Annual General Meeting (AGM) to discuss various proposals, including financial reports, profit distribution, and future financing strategies. Meeting Basic Information - The AGM is scheduled for April 14, 2025, at 10:00 AM in Quanzhou, Fujian Province [5]. - The meeting will combine on-site and online voting methods [5][6]. - The record date for shareholders is April 7, 2025 [5]. Agenda Items - The agenda includes the review of the 2024 Board of Directors and Supervisory Board reports [6][9]. - A proposal for a cash dividend of 2.00 RMB per 10 shares is planned, amounting to a total of 73.26 million RMB, which is 20.91% of the net profit for 2024 [13][14]. - The company seeks authorization to determine the mid-term cash dividend plan for 2025, with a cap of 30% of the net profit for that period [15][16]. - A proposal for a comprehensive credit facility of up to 2.2 billion RMB for 2025 is also on the agenda [16][17]. - The company plans to change the use of previously raised funds from a digital shipping research project to a new chemical shipbuilding project, with an investment of 648 million RMB [19][20]. Financial Reports - The company reported a net profit of 350.42 million RMB for 2024, with retained earnings of 754.87 million RMB as of December 31, 2024 [13][14]. - The financial decision-making process will be guided by the company's operational needs and market conditions [16][19]. Share Issuance and Financing - The company proposes to authorize the board to issue up to 300 million RMB in new shares to specific investors, not exceeding 20% of the net assets [25][28]. - The issuance will be conducted under simplified procedures, targeting qualified institutional investors [25][28]. Corporate Governance - The company will appoint a new auditing firm for the 2025 fiscal year, continuing its relationship with Rongcheng Accounting Firm [23]. - The remuneration for directors and supervisors for 2025 has been proposed, with independent directors receiving a pre-tax allowance of 120,000 RMB [24][26]. Other Proposals - The company plans to extend the validity of the previous year's resolution regarding the issuance of A-shares to specific investors [36]. - A proposal to transfer shipbuilding contracts to a joint venture with Xiamen Jianfa Supply Chain Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. is also included [29][30].

证券研究报告 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 民航换季计划发布，快递 1-2 月需求高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 3 月 10 日-2025 年 3 月 16 日） 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）邮政局公布 1-2 月快递行业数据，1-2 月行业件量累计同比增长 22.4%。根据国 家邮政局发布数据，1 - 2 月快递业务量累计 284.8 亿件、收入累计 2210.4 亿元， 分别同比增长 22.4%、11.2%。1 - 2 月快递与包裹服务品牌集中度指数 CR8 为 87.1， 较 1 月上升 0.5。2 月快递业务量 1 ...

证券代码：603209 证券简称：兴通股份 公告编号：2023-111 兴通海运股份有限公司 关于获得中华人民共和国交通运输部 2023 年度 沿海省际散装液体危险货物船舶新增运力的公告 公司以"船队一流、规模领先、盈利强劲、持续增长、投资获利"为经营发 展目标，紧抓战略机遇期，有节奏有规划发展船型，壮大企业和全面提高竞争格 局。同时，坚持财务稳健、风险可控、绿色发展、长期主义的发展道路！ 特此公告。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、获得新增运力的基本情况 2023 年 11 月 22 日，中华人民共和国交通运输部（以下简称"交通运输部"） 发布《交通运输部关于发布 2023 年度沿海省际散装液体危险货物船舶运输市场 运力调控综合评审结果有关事宜的公告》（交通运输部公告 2023 第 57 号），按 照经专家综合分析论证的新增运力规模和各企业专家打分得分最终排序，将 2023 年度沿海省际散装液体危险货物船舶运输市场运力调控综合评审结果有关 事宜进行公告。 兴通海运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）以第一名 ...

证券代码：603209 证券简称：兴通股份 公告编号：2023-109 兴通海运股份有限公司 关于使用暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理到期赎回 并继续进行现金管理的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 到期赎回理财产品 现金管理受托方：中信银行股份有限公司 现金管理金额：人民币 8,150 万元 现金管理产品名称：共赢智信汇率挂钩人民币结构性存款 00033 期 委托理财产品 现金管理受托方：中信银行股份有限公司 现金管理金额：人民币 8,200 万元 现金管理产品名称：共赢智信汇率挂钩人民币结构性存款 16485 期 现金管理期限：48 天 产品类型：保本浮动收益、封闭式 预期年化收益率：1.05%-2.70% 履行的审议程序：兴通海运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2023 年 4 月 7 日召开第二届董事会第四次会议和第二届监事会第四次会议，审议通过 了《兴通海运股份有限公司关于继续使用暂时闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议 案》，同意公司在确保不影响公司募集资金投资项目正常实施的前提下，继续使 ...