（数据来源：WIND资讯） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 | 代码 | 同家 | 场内简称 | 托管人 | 規模(亿) | 近1周均贴 | 近1周济跌 | 今年以来 | 质押率 | 本轮调整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 水率 | 国 | FID (8) | | 最大回覆 | Calmar D | | 511030.SH | 平安中债-中高等级公司债利差因子ETF | 公司债ETF | 十安银行股份有限公司 | 223.53 | -0.06% | -0.119% | 0.84 | 63.00 | -0.1925 | 3.6503 | | 511220.SH | 海富通上证城投债ETF | 城投债ETF | 中国银行股份有限公司 | 245.11 | -0.19% | -0.407% | 1.05 | 0.00 | -0.2907 | 2.1636 | | 511070.SH | 南方上证基准做市公司债ETF | 上证公司侦E ...

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三 个方向：1)Deepseek突破与开源引领的科技AI+，2)消费股的估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，3)低估红 利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI产业趋势的进 展，而AI产业趋势的进展又取决于AI应用端和消费端的突破。消费板块投资的核心因子是估值，在当 前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化下复苏周期抬头(哪怕是很弱的斜率)，以宏观叙事而对消费过 分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒生互联网。 天风证券主要观点如下： 市场思考：当前全A估值分布运动情况与历次牛市的对比 估值变异系数可以用来衡量个股的估值分布情况，在行情出现普涨时个股的估值分化程度会减小，换而 言之，在牛市中市场是"投票机"，而在熊市中市场则是"称重机"。在A股动静框架之静态指标中，有市 场配置指标——估值(PE)变异系数来跟踪全市场个股估值的分布情况。本章则采用PB视角切入，并且 针对14年至今的3轮牛市的演绎调整具体展开。 1)动态视角下，2024年9月至今市场低估值个股比例呈现持续下降趋势，表现为全AP/B分布曲线高 ...

Group 1 - A-shares have shown strong performance with major indices continuing to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high of 3746.67 points on August 19, and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for five consecutive trading days [1] - The current market differs fundamentally from 2021, with changes in valuation structure, funding nature, and market ecology contributing to a more resilient "structural steady rise" pattern [1][2] - The consensus among brokers is that the ongoing market recovery will attract incremental capital, creating a positive feedback loop for the current upward trend [1] Group 2 - The shift in funding from "institutional clustering" to "diverse coexistence" is a key factor shaping the current market style, with various funding sources including retail investors and quantitative strategies playing a significant role [2] - Public funds are behaving cautiously in the current market, while insurance funds are steadily entering the market, with the scale of new stock and securities investment by property and life insurance companies reaching 360.4 billion yuan in Q1, a 1.92 times increase year-on-year [2] - The return of retail investors and foreign capital has been notable, with the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increasing by 36.3% in July compared to June [3] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a "gradual rise," supported by policies and funding, with three main features: steady index growth, declining volatility, and a variety of structural hotspots across sectors [4] - Analysts believe that the current upward trend is underpinned by improved corporate earnings and ongoing reforms aimed at attracting long-term capital into the market [4][5] - The market ecology is maturing, with expectations of alternating hot sectors, and analysts suggest focusing on brokerage stocks, AI industry chains, and undervalued sectors for potential investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - Some foreign institutions agree that the current A-share rise is not solely driven by sentiment but is based on a combination of policy expectations and profit improvements [5] - Analysts recommend caution regarding potential volatility and structural risks, as the overall A-share price-to-book ratio is nearing historical highs, indicating a need for sustained corporate earnings to alleviate valuation pressures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that after the market reached new highs, there is an accelerated entry of sidelined funds, emphasizing a cautious and steady approach to investment [1][3]. Investment Themes - Investment themes can be categorized into three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in open-source technology AI+ 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks and gradual recovery in consumer segmentation 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the logic behind the A-share market's volume increase and new highs, noting that weak returns in the real economy may lead private sector asset allocation to shift towards financial assets. Historical patterns show that during previous bull markets, non-bank deposits significantly increased when real estate and economic returns were weak [1][2]. Consumer Sector Insights - The core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation. Given the current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, the consumer recovery cycle is expected to gain momentum. Being overly pessimistic about future consumer performance may be excessively conservative [1][3]. International Context - The report highlights international developments, including the U.S. core CPI growth exceeding expectations, with July's core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, up from a previous 2.9% [2].

Group 1: Market Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming bull market is influenced by weak returns in the real economy, leading private sector investments to shift towards financial assets, particularly during periods of low returns in real estate and the economy [1][10][11] - Historical data shows that during previous major bull markets, such as 2006-2007 and 2013-2015, the proportion of non-bank deposits significantly increased, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards financial markets [11][15] - The report highlights that the current economic environment, characterized by low returns in the real estate market and a decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that the return rates in the real economy remain insufficient [18][14] Group 2: Economic Data Trends - Recent economic data from July shows a decline in growth rates across three major indicators: industrial production, investment, and retail sales, all falling below expectations [2][36] - Industrial production year-on-year growth was reported at 5.7%, below the expected 5.82%, while retail sales growth was at 3.7%, compared to an expected 4.87% [36] - The report notes that the financing pulse continues to recover, with new RMB loans turning negative year-on-year, indicating a tightening in credit conditions [2][36] Group 3: International Economic Context - The report tracks international developments, noting that the U.S. core CPI growth in July exceeded market expectations, which may influence global economic conditions [3][20] - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is also highlighted as a factor that could impact market stability and investor sentiment [3][20] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in technology AI, recovery in consumer stock valuations, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of a cautious approach in the current market environment, particularly in the context of the ongoing bull market and the influx of capital from previously sidelined investors [4][10] - The report also points out that the performance of undervalued dividend stocks is closely tied to the progress of the AI industry trend [4][10]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 大暑已至，心平气和 国内：6 月财政一本账偏弱，土地成交回暖带动二本账回升 1）6 月财政收支小幅回落，土地成交回暖。6 月财政收入累计同比持平， 当月同比回落转负，税收收入同比回升，非税收入同比继续回落，财政支出 同比回落。6 月全国政府性基金收入同比大幅回正，土地成交回暖，全国政 府性基金支出同比回升。2）交运高频指标方面，地铁客运量指数回落。 3）工业生产腾落指数回落，甲醇、山东地炼回升，唐山高炉持平，纯碱、 涤纶长丝、轮胎回落。4）国内政策跟踪：国务院新闻办就海南自由贸易港 建设有关情况举行发布会；第二十五次中国－欧盟领导人会晤；《中华人民 共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。 国际：俄乌、以哈均进行停火谈判 1）俄乌冲突跟踪：第三轮俄乌谈判在土耳其举行；俄外交部发表声明对欧 盟制裁采取反制措施。2）中东冲突跟踪：以色列称停火谈判未破裂；哈马 斯官员称准备恢复停火谈判；马克龙宣布将承认巴勒斯坦国后，美以表示强 烈反对。3） 特朗普视察美联储总部，再次希望鲍威尔降息，他将观察委员 会如何制定利率规则。特朗普称没有必要解雇鲍威尔，但降低 ...

Domestic Economic Analysis - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding expectations of 5.17% and previous value of 5.4%. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showed growth rates of 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% respectively [1][9][10] - In June, industrial production increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.66% and previous value of 5.8%. However, social consumption and investment showed declines [11][14] - Exports in June grew by 5.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous 4.7% and expectations of 3.21%. Imports also increased by 1.1%, reversing a previous decline [43][44] - The social financing scale increased by 4.20 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. New RMB loans turned positive, indicating a recovery in credit conditions [55][56] International Economic Context - The core CPI growth in the US for June was lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the expected 3.0% [2][66] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to impact global economic conditions, with potential implications for international trade and investment strategies [2][66][67] Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. The performance of undervalued dividends is closely tied to the progress in the AI sector [3][5] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with a potential recovery supported by declining interest rates and policy catalysts. The report warns against overly pessimistic views on consumer recovery [3][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the pattern of the "transformation bull market" in the Chinese stock market is becoming increasingly clear, with a strategic bullish outlook for 2025 [1] - After traversing shocks and adjustments, investors' understanding of the economic situation has become sufficient, reducing the marginal impact of valuation contraction [1] - The main contradiction in future expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, particularly the systematic reduction of risk awareness and risk-free interest rates [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes a defensive strategy in June, categorizing investment themes into three directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [2] - The progress of the AI industry trend is crucial for the height of undervalued dividends, which often retract when strong industrial trends emerge [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities reports that new consumption and value growth are progressing in parallel, with differentiation in targets and valuation increases [3] - Structural dividends in new consumption are driven by innovations in new channels and product categories, particularly in snacks, health products, and food additives [3] - Traditional food and beverage leaders are achieving stable growth through strong product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the beer and beverage sectors [3]

Group 1 - Multiple important domestic data will be released this week, including May CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing, and import-export data [1][2] - The U.S. will release May CPI and PPI data, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [1][2] - Significant events include He Lifeng's visit to the UK and the opening of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 41 stocks will face lock-up expiration this week, with a total unlock volume of 2.054 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 44.123 billion yuan [3][4] - The top three companies by unlock market value are: Dameng Data (10.752 billion yuan), Huahai Qingke (10.4 billion yuan), and YN Technology (3.059 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 3 - He Lifeng will visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism [5] - The Ministry of Commerce addressed concerns regarding China's export control measures on rare earths, emphasizing compliance and communication with other countries [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 73.83 million ounces by the end of May [5] Group 4 - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 328.53 billion USD, reflecting a slight increase of 36 million USD from the previous month [6][7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting increased dividend payouts by listed companies to enhance investment value [7] - Central Huijin has become the actual controller of multiple securities and fund management companies [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing an "AI + Manufacturing" initiative to deepen the application of AI in the industrial sector [7] - The U.S. State Department has resumed processing student visas for international students planning to attend Harvard University [8] Group 6 - Two new stocks will be issued this week: Huazhi Jie on the Shanghai main board and Xinhenghui on the ChiNext [9][10] - The subscription limits and prices for these new stocks have been set, with Huazhi Jie priced at 19.88 yuan [10] Group 7 - Various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as new consumption, banking, and insurance, indicating strong short-term demand and long-term investment value [11][12] - The focus on technology and high-end manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, particularly in defense and semiconductor industries [12][13] - The market is anticipated to experience a rotation of themes, with potential opportunities in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technologies [13]

Group 1 - The A-shares market showed a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.22% as of midday trading [1] - The total market turnover reached 742.5 billion yuan, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) experienced a fluctuating performance, closing up 0.63% at midday, with a turnover rate exceeding 12% and a trading volume of over 1.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF (159351) has seen a net inflow of funds for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, accumulating 268 million yuan [1] - The latest circulating share of the A500 Index ETF is 15.353 billion shares, with a total market size of 14.714 billion yuan [1] - The A500 Index closely tracks the new benchmark index, the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks representing strong market capitalization across various industries [1] Group 3 - The CSI A500 Index is set to undergo its second rebalancing since its launch, with 21 stocks being removed and 21 new stocks being added, effective after the market closes on June 13 [2] - Financial strategies suggest a return to traditional core assets, with expectations of market recovery driven by improved economic sentiment and valuation adjustments [2] - Investment directions are identified as technology AI breakthroughs, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [2]