格隆汇1月29日｜近期农业产业链也迎来涨价上涨，豆粕ETF(159985)涨1.7%，冲击两连阳，农业ETF华 夏(516810)小幅上涨0.11%。 消息面上： 太平洋证券指出，近期我国养猪行业产能持续去化，，预计在"疫情风险上升+政策施压"的多重压力 下，养猪业产能有望继续去化。白鸡行业产能水平较高，鸡价中期或继续震荡；种植产业链上，粮价各 品种近期震荡上涨，中期在国内外因素支撑下有望趋势性上涨，并有利于种子价格上涨。 相关产品： 国内农产品商品型ETF的独苗：豆粕ETF(159985)是唯一跟踪大商所豆粕期货价格指数的ETF，上游大豆 和下游猪肉市场供需及价格波动对豆粕价格的影响较大，支持T+0交易，该ETF从去年8月26起连续104 个交易日"吸金"。场外联接基金(A类: 007937，C类:007938)。 养殖与农资双轮驱动：农业ETF华夏(516810)，农林牧渔+基础化工占比超90%，权重股包括牧原股份 （生猪养殖龙头）、温氏股份（肉鸡、生猪养殖）、海大集团（饲料+养殖）和藏格矿业（钾肥+锂资 源）。该ETF连续三日获资金净申购。 ①阿根廷大豆产区持续高温干旱，威胁大豆作物生长，同时春节终端消 ...

（责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华泰证券研报指出，海大集团近期上调2025-2027年未来三年分红率由30%至50%，并向香港联交所 递交了海外业务分拆上市的申请文件。认为当前市场对海大集团国内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间 仍有预期差，公司2025年国内饲料主业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出 海持续高增长，港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点推荐国内长期超额 优势向分红价值转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.3% on January 28, with Baiyang Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Major gainers in the feed sector included: - Dabeinong (002385) with a closing price of 4.30, up 4.12% on a trading volume of 3.44 million shares and a transaction value of 146.9 million yuan [1] - Tianma Technology (603668) closed at 15.87, up 1.60% with a transaction value of 166 million yuan [1] - Tangrenshen (002567) closed at 4.45, up 1.14% with a transaction value of 19.5 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Baiyang Co., Ltd. (002696) led the decline with a closing price of 7.57, down 3.32% on a trading volume of 131,200 shares and a transaction value of 101 million yuan [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Aonong Biological (603363) down 2.64% [2] - Petty Holdings (300673) down 2.51% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net inflow of 113 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 69.45 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Dabeinong had a net inflow of 16.416 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 13.4 million yuan [3] - Tiankang Biological (002100) had a net inflow of 26.242 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Baiyang Co., Ltd. experienced a net outflow of 30.7375 million yuan from retail investors [3]

上市企业：新希望（000876）,海大集团（002311）,通威股份（600438）,大北农（002385）,粤海饲料 （001313） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国饲料行业市场调查研究及发展前景展望报告》 2020-2025年中国饲料产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国饲料产量为3009万吨，同比增长3.9%；2025年中国饲料累 计产量为33908.3万吨，累计增长6%。 ...

公司近期上调2025-2027 年未来三年分红率由30%至50%，并向香港联交所递交了海外业务分拆上市的 申请文件。我们认为，当前市场对海大集团国内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间仍有预期差，公司 2025 年国内饲料主业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出海持续高增长， 港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点推荐国内长期超额优势向分红价值 转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 国内主业优势稳固，自由现金流、分红率有望回升 （1）公司国内饲料主业竞争力进一步放大，我们预测，海大集团2025 年国内饲料外销量增长约20%， 大幅超出行业约6%的增速，市占率加速提升；在激烈的市场竞争下，公司饲料吨毛利长期韧性突出， 以2015 年为基期，25H1 主要饲料上市公司饲料吨毛利下降190 元，海大集团仅微降6 元。我们认为， 公司2030 年实现国内4430 万吨饲料产销量目标的确定性不断增强，且随公司饲料组织架构进一步专业 化，公司饲料单吨费用与折旧在2025年取得明显边际进展后仍有优化空间。（2）从自由现金流角度 看，公司国内饲料板块新增资本 ...

1月初以来，农药化工板块持续回暖，开启周期修复行情；农业另一子板块生猪养殖却持续回调，短期 或已充分反应业绩悲观预期。资金连续两日逆势净流入农业ETF华夏（516810.SH），或逢低布局修复 行情，以及博弈2月重要政策预期。 东方证券表示，2026年农业是拐点向上的年份，养殖、种植将依次发力，带来板块趋势上行，建议重点 关注。尤其是生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长期业绩和估值提升的核 心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力未来板块业绩长期提升。 农业ETF华夏（516810.SH）被动跟踪中证农业主题指数，农林牧渔+基础化工含量93.64%，前十大权 重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、藏格矿业、盐湖股份、亚钾国际等，牧原股份+温氏股份合 计权重占比近25%。 消息面上，据新浪报道，养殖龙头公司牧原股份传最快2月香港上市。业绩方面，牧原股份2025年业绩 预告显示，第四季度业绩预计中值实现盈利，成本降幅领先行业，体现龙头公司穿越周期的韧性； ...

证券研究报告 海大集团 (002311 CH) 国内价值属性增强，海外持续高成长 2026 年 1 月 27 日│中国内地 饲料 公司近期上调 2025-2027 年未来三年分红率由 30%至 50%，并向香港联交 所递交了海外业务分拆上市的申请文件。我们认为，当前市场对海大集团国 内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间仍有预期差，公司 2025 年国内饲料主 业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出海持续高 增长，港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点 推荐国内长期超额优势向分红价值转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺 资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 国内主业优势稳固，自由现金流、分红率有望回升 （1）公司国内饲料主业竞争力进一步放大，我们预测，海大集团 2025 年 国内饲料外销量增长约 20%，大幅超出行业约 6%的增速，市占率加速提升； 在激烈的市场竞争下，公司饲料吨毛利长期韧性突出，以 2015 年为基期， 25H1 主要饲料上市公司饲料吨毛利下降 190 元，海大集团仅微降 6 元。我 们认为，公司 2030 年实现国内 4430 万吨饲料产销量目标的确定性不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunfu has successfully transitioned from an agricultural city to an agricultural powerhouse, achieving a total agricultural output value exceeding 100 billion yuan, driven by practical efforts and strategic development initiatives [8][20]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The total output value of modern agriculture in Yunfu rose from 58.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 100.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant milestone [20][21]. - The city focuses on "integrated" development, promoting the upgrade of agriculture from traditional farming to a collaborative model involving primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [9][10]. - Local enterprises like Wens Foodstuff Group, which is a top 500 company in China, play a crucial role in leading the agricultural industry, with a chicken market volume exceeding 1.3 billion birds, ranking first in Asia [11][12]. Group 2: Specialty Products and Industry Upgrades - Yunfu is recognized for its unique agricultural products, including the "no-core yellow skin" fruit, "Luoding cinnamon," and "Chinese native chicken," which have gained national and global acclaim [14][15]. - The city has established a complete agricultural production system with leading enterprises, creating 2 national and 15 provincial modern agricultural industrial parks [13]. - The local cinnamon industry, particularly Luoding cinnamon, is positioned as a key driver for county development and rural revitalization, supported by national geographical indication product certification [28][29]. Group 3: Rural Revitalization and Economic Growth - The "Hundred-Thousand-Million Project" is a strategic initiative aimed at promoting coordinated urban-rural development, resulting in significant economic growth in county and town economies [49][50]. - Three county-level industrial parks have been cultivated, with notable growth in town economies, leading to a 30% increase in total economic output across three towns [55][56]. - Over 85% of administrative villages have achieved the standard of beautiful and livable villages, reflecting the success of rural construction efforts [58][60].

Core Viewpoint - The case against the star fund manager Shi Cheng highlights the challenges faced by Guotou Ruijin in its equity investment business, revealing significant losses and management issues within the firm [1][2][3] Group 1: Fund Manager and Performance - Shi Cheng, a prominent fund manager at Guotou Ruijin, was sued by an investor for financial contract disputes, marking a significant fall from grace for a manager who once thrived in the booming new energy sector [2][3][4] - From 2022 to 2024, the six funds managed by Shi Cheng incurred losses exceeding 160 billion yuan, with annual profits recorded as -29.24 billion yuan, -32.16 billion yuan, -57.52 billion yuan, -35.71 billion yuan, -1.65 billion yuan, and -6.45 billion yuan [4][5][6] - Shi Cheng's management scale plummeted from a peak of 212.87 billion yuan in 2021 to 87.86 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a reduction of over 125 billion yuan [5][6][18] Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Compliance Risks - In 2025, Shi Cheng attempted to pivot from new energy stocks to AI-related investments, which led to a short-term performance rebound, achieving a weighted return of 68.76%, significantly outperforming the benchmark [6][19] - However, this shift raised compliance concerns as it violated the fund's contract stipulating that at least 80% of assets must be in new energy sectors [19][20] Group 3: Company Challenges and Management Issues - Guotou Ruijin has faced ongoing difficulties, with its equity investment team, including managers like Qi Fapeng and Sang Jun, also reporting poor performance and significant asset shrinkage [2][20][21] - The overall management scale of Guotou Ruijin decreased from approximately 2786.45 billion yuan in 2024 to about 2542.53 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a loss of nearly 243.92 billion yuan [22][23] - The firm is also experiencing a "miniaturization" issue, with many of its funds falling below the 3 billion yuan threshold, raising concerns about potential fund closures [22][23] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Changes - Guotou Ruijin is undergoing a strategic transformation, influenced by changes in its management team and shareholder structure, particularly following UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse [24][25] - The dual ownership of Guotou Ruijin and ICBC Credit Suisse by UBS may impact resource allocation and strategic direction for Guotou Ruijin moving forward [25][26]

Core Insights - The market pricing logic is shifting from short-term emotional speculation back to long-term industrial cycles, with a focus on deep safety margins and a contrarian approach in sectors like chemicals, finance, and traditional cycles [1][12] - The strategy is characterized by a deep value defense combined with a contrarian offensive, essentially acting as a high-probability call option on the recovery of the Chinese economy and the style switch in A-shares [1][12] Strategy Positioning: Resilient Bottom Position in a Bull Market - In a mid-bull market with extreme valuation differentiation, the report emphasizes avoiding popular bubble sectors and instead focuses on left-side pricing during industry headwinds [2][13] - The representative product has a maximum drawdown of only 10.8%, outperforming the 15.66% drawdown of the CSI 300 index during the same period [2][13] - The fund manager's commitment to a balanced value strategy is highlighted as a rare approach in a market characterized by high beta and significant intraday volatility [2][13] Investment Framework: High Probability Mean Reversion - The investment framework is based on capturing upward elastic opportunities during market downturns, with a focus on buying at cyclical bottoms [3][17] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a core position in basic chemicals and consumer staples while tactically increasing exposure to non-bank financials to capitalize on bull market rebounds [18][20] - The report outlines a three-dimensional investment approach: maintaining core holdings in strong industries, tactical offensives in financials, and defensive measures through high-dividend, low-volatility assets [18][20] Portfolio Analysis: Asymmetric Risk-Return Structure - The portfolio exhibits a significant asymmetric risk-return profile, with a solid bottom and upward elasticity [21][23] - The longest-managed product, Yongying Huize, operates with a low turnover rate of 1.69 and a high position of 90%, effectively managing drawdowns while maintaining long-term returns [21][23] - The report notes that the maximum drawdown was effectively controlled at around 6% despite market challenges, reflecting a strong risk management strategy [21][23] Market Outlook and Allocation Strategy: Aligning with Macro Trends - The report identifies four key macroeconomic themes: optimizing supply structures through anti-involution policies, leveraging central government leverage to stabilize asset values, and stimulating consumption and fertility to unlock domestic demand [34][35] - The anticipated global liquidity and PPI upturn in 2026 are expected to support resource revaluation and corporate profit cycles, particularly benefiting sectors like food and beverage, chemicals, and electronics [35][38] - The investment strategy is expected to perform well in 2026, focusing on cyclical and domestic demand assets that are at a dual inflection point of profitability and valuation [42][43]