Core Insights - China's market regulator has granted conditional approval for a joint venture focused on lithium production between Chile's state-run copper giant Codelco and local lithium producer SQM [1] Company Summary - The joint venture involves Codelco, a major player in the copper industry, and SQM, a significant local producer in the lithium sector, indicating a strategic collaboration aimed at enhancing lithium production capabilities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is relatively strong, with the ADP employment data exceeding expectations, but there are still uncertainties in the employment market and inflation pressure remains. The US government shutdown has reached a record - long 36 days, which has an impact on the stock market and other fields. The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with short - term expected to be weak in shock and long - term still having value for bottom - fishing layout. The bond market may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern. Different commodity prices show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached a new eight - month high, and the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but some service industries continued to lay off workers. The US government shutdown lasted for 36 days, the longest on record. The strong economic and earnings data boosted market risk appetite, the US stock market rebounded, the US dollar index fluctuated above 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, the gold and copper prices closed up, and the oil price closed down by more than 1% to a two - week low [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened low and closed high, with most major indexes rising. The trading volume shrank to 1.89 trillion. The micro - cap and ChiNext sectors were dominant, while the Shanghai 50 and Beixin 50 were weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weak in shock, and in the long term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and focus on fundamentals again, and may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious metal futures prices rebounded on Wednesday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. Although the US ADP employment data exceeded expectations, the investment risk - aversion sentiment still drove the prices of gold and silver up. The short - term rebound space of gold and silver prices is expected to be limited, and they are still in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, and LME copper rebounded at night. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks at low prices. The overall employment market in the US is still weak, and there are still uncertainties in the economy. Codelco said that its production in 2025 - 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2024. It is expected that the copper price will stabilize and rebound after stopping falling [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.4%, and LME aluminum closed down 0.7%. The ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data in the US were strong, which cooled the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December. The overseas supply was disturbed, and the domestic supply of aluminum ingots increased slightly. The consumption season is shifting to the off - season, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed down 0.11%. The supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. The supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The US ADP employment data was higher than expected, but far lower than the historical average. The zinc ingot export window is open, and the inventory is expected to decline. The short - term macro situation is stable, and the zinc price is slightly adjusted, but there is support below the price [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. The environmental protection control still causes a regional supply shortage, and the demand of battery enterprises is expected to pick up, but the supply shortage is expected to improve as more refineries resume production. The short - term fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The fundamentals have few new contradictions, and the raw material improvement is limited. The decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the US government shutdown have put pressure on the tin price in the short term, but it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall before the low inventory at home and abroad significantly rebounds [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side decreased marginally, and the demand side had mixed performance. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week. The industrial silicon spot price stabilized and rebounded, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated, and the spot price fell. The production capacity of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. increased. The trading enthusiasm of the spot market was average, and both long and short sides have bargaining chips. The lithium price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. The US ADP employment data and service industry PMI data were released, and the legal debate on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" was held. The US dollar put pressure on the nickel price, but the current nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and the cost support is still there. The nickel price is expected to have limited decline space, and a callback of the US dollar index may boost the nickel price [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated strongly, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Some soda ash and glass production enterprises have maintenance plans. The demand for soda ash may decline due to the concentrated maintenance of glass factories. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will stop falling and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the convergence of the cross - variety price difference [20][21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The demand for steel is weak, the supply is high, and the inventory pressure remains. The steel price is expected to be weak [22][23]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures fell. Due to the weak demand for steel and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the iron ore demand is weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be weak [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The 2025/26 annual soybean production in Argentina is expected to be 4,740 tons. The Chinese government will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US soybeans and retain the 10% additional tariff. The import cost supports the prices of bean and rapeseed meal, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The MPOA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons. The supply of palm oil is expected to be loose, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27][28].

Group 1: Codelco's Production Challenges - Codelco has lowered its 2025 output forecast to 1.31 to 1.32 million metric tons, down from 1.34 to 1.37 million tons [1][2] - CEO Ruben Alvarado dismissed concerns about long-term production goals, but the reduction highlights ongoing challenges such as declining ore grades and high capital costs [2] - A July accident at the El Teniente mine may delay production recovery for up to three years, although expansion projects are helping to mitigate some output losses [3] Group 2: Glencore's Operational Pressures - Glencore is considering the potential closure of its Horne Smelter in Quebec due to high environmental compliance costs and operational upgrades [4][5] - The Horne Smelter and the Canadian Copper Refinery together employ around 1,000 workers and produce over 300,000 tons annually, with modernization costs estimated at over $200 million [4] - A potential closure of the Horne Smelter could tighten global copper supply amid existing disruptions from key producers [6] Group 3: Rising Copper Demand - Copper demand is projected to increase by 24% by 2035, driven by electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and data center expansion [7] - Meeting this rising demand will require an additional 8 million metric tons of mine capacity and 3.5 million tons of scrap annually [7] - Structural deficits in copper supply are expected to persist, leading to sustained price volatility [8] Group 4: Market Performance - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of 51.77% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing a tug-of-war between strong supply constraints and weak consumption realities, leading to expectations of high-level fluctuations in copper prices [1][9]. Group 2 - The global copper mining industry is entering a phase of chronic shortages, with Chile's copper production in September at 456,663 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2]. - The International Copper Study Group forecasts a global copper mine shortage of approximately 150,000 tons in 2025, expanding to 300,000 tons in 2026, indicating a shift towards a chronic supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0921 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.94% but a year-on-year increase of 9.63% [3]. - In November, the planned maintenance of smelters is expected to reduce production by 48,000 tons, while the copper price environment is favoring increased operating rates for plants using scrap copper or anode copper as raw materials [3]. Group 4 - Global copper inventories have shown a total increase, with a total of 573,400 tons as of October 31, up by 41,000 tons from the end of September, but with significant geographical disparities [4]. - The COMEX warehouse holds over 40% of visible global copper inventory, while LME copper stocks have decreased to 134,600 tons after a recent depletion cycle [4]. Group 5 - Domestic copper social inventory as of November 3 was 200,100 tons, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons, indicating a slight increase in supply despite ongoing maintenance and production cuts [6]. Group 6 - Domestic power grid investment has shifted from rapid growth to high-quality development, with fixed asset investments exceeding 420 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [8]. - The operating rate of domestic copper cable enterprises was 60.8%, reflecting a decrease due to weak demand and high copper prices, with expectations of a slight recovery in the coming week [8]. Group 7 - The copper market is characterized by a conflict between tight supply expectations and weak demand, with high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [9].

Codelco Cuts 2025 Copper Guidance Again After Mine Collapse https://t.co/EBnltAC4VH ...

Core Insights - Chile, the world's largest copper producer, experienced a 4.5% year-on-year decline in copper production in September due to mine operational disruptions and declining ore grades [1] Group 1: Production Challenges - The production recovery from August, following a fatal collapse at Codelco's largest mine, remains below last year's levels [1] - Several domestic mines underperformed, exacerbating the supply shortage that drove copper prices to new highs this week [1] Group 2: Specific Mine Issues - Codelco's El Teniente mine has been operating at low capacity since a deadly accident in late July that resulted in six fatalities [1] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca mine is facing tailings management challenges [1] - The nearby Collahuasi mine is extracting from low-grade ore zones, with production losses exceeding expectations [1] Group 3: Global Production Impact - The world's largest copper mine, Escondida, saw a slight increase in production, which only partially offset the reductions from other mines [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

Copper surged to a new record on Wednesday on hopes of a U.S.-China deal, with three-month futures on London markets exceeding $11,140 per ton. The 25% year-to-date rally so far has been the best performance for the metal since 2017.“Copper prices are being supported by a pick-up in risk appetite on optimism about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China,” Craig Lang, CRU Group’s principal analyst, said per Bloomberg. “The metal has also been supported by the concerns about physical tightness in ma ...

Group 1 - The macro sentiment provides strong support for copper prices, with frequent supply disruptions and the arrival of peak demand season, leading to expectations of sustained strong prices [1] - The import copper concentrate index has decreased month-on-month, and Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge in the European market to a historical high, further supporting copper prices [1] - In the aluminum sector, the peak season in October continues, benefiting from increased demand from automotive companies, resulting in a significant rise in orders for auto parts and improved operating rates [1] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, as well as inventory depletion [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a relatively large average market capitalization, with a significant concentration of industry leaders [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,200 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, driven by easing US-China tensions and supply setbacks [1][2] - Year-to-date, copper has increased by over 25%, positioning it for its best performance since 2017 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Major mining disruptions in Chile, Africa, and Indonesia have significantly impacted global copper supplies [2][6] - The global copper market is projected to face its most severe deficit in over 20 years by 2026, as American inventories are effectively stranded [5] Group 3: Trade Policies and Market Dynamics - US tariff policies have caused price distortions, with traders previously importing large quantities of copper into the US in anticipation of proposed levies [4] - The decision to exempt commodity-grade copper from tariffs has led to increased demand in the US, further straining supply for other markets [4][5] Group 4: Production Issues - The copper industry has faced significant production challenges in 2025, with major incidents reported by Freeport McMoRan Inc, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, and Codelco [6] - Global annual copper production is expected to contract for the first time since the pandemic began, according to CRU [7]