重仓股配置比例下降 前期涨幅高的收益确认，AI应用标的配置提升 —— 2025Q4传媒持仓分析 行业评级：看好 2026年1月26日 分析师 冯翠婷 电话 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230525010001 2025Q4传媒行业机构持仓情况总结 证券研究报告 1、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，体现为前期涨幅较高的收益确认，AI应用相关标的25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力 2 2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为3.87%，环比下降0.79pcts，高于行业标准配置比例的2.24%；剔除腾讯控股后，2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为 1.49%，环比下降0.53pcts；2025Q4传媒板块行业配置比例明显下降，主要体现为前期涨幅较高的个股的收益确认，但仍然显著超配，部分AI应用相 关标的如【三七互娱】、 【蓝色光标】、【易点天下】等25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力。 2、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，前期涨幅较高的收益确认 传媒行业重仓股规模为1538.73亿元，环比减少345.72亿元，环比下降18.35%。其中前十大重仓股规模合计为1420.55亿 ...

Group 1 - The company approved a proposal to recognize impairment losses on long-term equity investments in its associate, Dataseed Fintech Holdings Limited, amounting to RMB 2.153 billion [1][2] - As of September 30, 2025, the book value of the company's long-term equity investment in Dataseed was approximately RMB 3.32 billion, which was reduced to approximately RMB 2.944 billion after accounting for losses [1] - The impairment assessment conducted by Zhonglian Asset Appraisal Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. indicated a significant reduction in the fair value of the investment, with a 73.45% impairment rate [2][3] Group 2 - The company plans to fully exit its investment in Dataseed for a consideration of RMB 791 million, resulting in a total impairment of RMB 2.153 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [2] - The impairment will lead to a corresponding decrease in the net profit attributable to shareholders by RMB 2.153 billion for the year 2025 [3] - The estimated recoverable amount from the long-term equity investment in Dataseed is RMB 791 million, compared to the book value of RMB 2.944 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces operational losses in Q4 2025 due to stricter regulations on internet lending, leading to an impairment trigger for its associate company, Shuhe, which reported a net loss of approximately 684 million yuan [1] Group 1: Impact on Company Performance - In Q4 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease by 2.529 billion yuan due to an impairment provision of 2.153 billion yuan and a share of Shuhe's losses amounting to approximately 376 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 565 million yuan as the company exits its investment in Shuhe for 791 million yuan, transferring related capital reserves to current investment income [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Market Trends - The recent impairment is considered a one-time impact, and the company will no longer hold shareholder rights in Shuhe, indicating that future performance will not be affected by this event [2] - The company anticipates continued growth in its core business, driven by increased advertising investments from internet advertisers and major events like the Winter Olympics and World Cup boosting food and beverage advertising [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company expects overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 12.751 billion, 13.672 billion, and 14.555 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.0%, 7.2%, and 6.5% respectively [3] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected to be 3.184 billion, 6.022 billion, and 6.083 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.42, and 0.42 yuan per share [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 9.45 yuan per share, reflecting a reasonable total value of 136.4 billion yuan based on improved competitive landscape post-acquisition [3]

江南春虽然是广告业的"教父"级人物，拥有很强的个人直觉，但他从未陷入"经验主义"的陷阱。当浑水 做空时，他没有固执己见，而是审视中美资本差异，果断回A；当移动互联网来袭，他承认自己在互联 网基因上的短板，果断引入阿里进行改造；当需要出海时，他信任老将，充分放权。 正如案例所示，"拓心界"要求领导者超越自身的局限，时刻准备拥抱变化。江南春通过不断的学习 和"借力"，让分众始终保持着对新技术的敏感度，从而避免了被时代淘汰。 复盘分众传媒20余年的发展史，我们看到的不仅是商业模式的胜利，更是一个组织在面对各种不确定性 时展现出的强大生命力。 我们将这种生命力总结为"韧性领导力飞轮"，它包含三个核心维度，为中国企业提供了宝贵的管理样 本。 韧性的起点，在于领导者能否在危机中保持认知的开放。 分众拥有超过5000名员工，但组织架构惊人地扁平，包括各区域销售负责人在内的60—70位高管，直接 向江南春汇报。这种设计看似违背管理学常识，实则最大化了信息的流动效率。江南春自述，在没客人 时进他的办公室不需要预约，即使在深夜2点也可以在微信上和他讨论工作。 更重要的是，江南春通过"共情"凝聚人心。用"持续性的小赢"——一系列可 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and strategic adjustments of funds managed by Zhang Kun of E Fund, highlighting the significant differentiation in fund performance and his outlook on domestic consumption and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Zhang Kun's managed fund size decreased to 48.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly reduction exceeding 8 billion yuan [2][3] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund (005827.OF), experienced a nearly 9% loss in Q4, underperforming its benchmark by over 6%, while the E Fund Asia Select Stock Fund (118001.OF) achieved a 4.5% positive return, outperforming its benchmark by over 2% and recording a nearly 42% increase for the entire year [2][3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun continued to reduce holdings in the liquor sector, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q3 2025, maintaining a near 10% position in leading liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - Significant reductions were also noted in pharmaceutical and media stocks, with JD Health seeing a cut of about half in holdings, alongside Tencent Holdings and Focus Media [5][6][7] Group 4 - In overseas investments, Samsung Electronics replaced Tencent Holdings as the top holding in the E Fund Asia Select, with Zhang Kun opting to take profits as stock prices surged [6][7][8] Group 5 - Zhang Kun expressed a strong belief in the future of domestic consumption, arguing that current consumer weakness is not a permanent state and will improve, supported by government goals for income growth and stabilization of housing prices [8][9][10] - He emphasized that a robust domestic consumption market is crucial for technological innovation, suggesting that increased consumer spending will benefit domestic AI companies and accelerate their development [10][11][12] - Zhang Kun remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Chinese consumption and economic growth, viewing current market valuations of quality companies as attractive for long-term investors [10][11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The AI application market is experiencing significant growth and sustainability in 2026, with a notable recovery in the advertising marketing sector compared to 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI in practical scenarios [2][4] - The AI comic market is rapidly expanding, with 60% of content creators using AI technology for content generation, and AI comics accounting for over 70% of the market share by Q4 2025 [3][28] Key Companies and Developments - **Anthropic**: Launched Claude Skills, which optimizes workplace workflows by packaging complex task instructions into skill sets, enhancing efficiency and accuracy [2][7] - **ByteDance**: Introduced Coze 2.0, which includes Agent Skills and Agent Plan features aimed at improving daily workflow efficiency [2][4] - **OpenAI**: Accelerating commercialization with plans to launch advertising monetization in February 2026, potentially impacting the Chinese market [4][6] - **Minimax**: Released Agent 2.0 desktop application, focusing on workplace integration [10][11] - **Giant Network**: Collaborating with 巨量引擎 to explore AI technology integration in game development, enhancing user experience and creative generation [5][18] Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Intense competition among leading internet companies in the AI application space, particularly during the Chinese New Year, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for AI application entry [4] - The gaming industry is witnessing a gradual integration of AI technologies, with significant advancements expected in 2026, including the launch of new AI-native games [15][19] Financial Insights - **分众传媒**: Plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of over 80% from net profit excluding non-recurring losses, indicating strong cash flow despite a one-time loss of 2.15 billion [12][13] - **OpenAI**: Reported revenues of approximately $4.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with substantial operational costs, highlighting the urgency for monetization strategies [9][10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on advertising marketing and AI comic sectors, with companies like 易点天下, 中文互联, and 值得买 poised to benefit from increased advertising activities [11] - In the AI comic sector, companies such as 快手 and 可灵 are recommended for their innovative tools and IP potential [11][30] Future Outlook - The AI application landscape is expected to evolve significantly in 2026, with practical applications expanding across various sectors, including gaming and content creation [8][28] - The comic industry is projected to see further growth due to increased supply and supportive policies from major platforms [29][30] Additional Insights - Tencent's strategic initiatives in AI and cloud services are noteworthy, with a rapid increase in partnerships and revenue from AI-related models [24] - The gaming sector remains attractive for investment, with reasonable valuations and anticipated revenue peaks during the holiday season [14][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in the heavy allocation ratio of A-share media stocks by public funds, with a concentration decline [4] - The report highlights a shift in fund allocation towards the news publishing sector, while gaming and advertising sectors saw reductions [4] - The report suggests continued focus on segments with favorable market conditions and AI industry logic, particularly in gaming and IP derivatives [4] Summary by Sections A-share Media Fund Heavy Allocation Ratio Decline - In Q4 2025, the heavy allocation ratio for A-share media stocks was 1.32%, down from 2.56% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points [13] - For A+H shares, the allocation ratio was 4.41%, down from 5.99%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [13] Changes in Fund Allocation by Sector - The gaming sector's allocation decreased from 67.34% in Q3 2025 to 65.20% in Q4 2025, a drop of 2.14 percentage points [27] - The advertising sector's allocation fell from 24.35% to 22.41%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points [27] - The news publishing sector saw an increase in allocation from 1.93% to 6.29%, an increase of 4.35 percentage points [27] Concentration of A-share Media Heavy Holdings - The top five heavy holdings in the A-share media sector accounted for 78.48% of the total heavy holdings value, down 6.57 percentage points [42] - The top ten heavy holdings accounted for 88.04%, down 4.93 percentage points [42] Hong Kong Internet Sector Fund Holdings - In Q4 2025, companies like DaMai Entertainment and Meituan-W saw increased holdings, while Kuaishou-W and Pop Mart experienced reductions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on segments with favorable market conditions and AI applications, particularly in gaming and long video sectors [4]

公司公告《关于计提长期股权投资资产减值准备的公告》：1）25Q4，公司联营公司数禾科技按权益法 计提的亏损金额约为3.76 亿元；2）截止2025 年底，数禾的长期股权投资账面价值29.44 亿元，公司将 以7.91 亿元的对价完全退出，拟计提资产减值准备21.53 亿元。根据公告，两者合计将减少2025 年四季 度归母净利润约25.29 亿元。3）公司已收到交易首付款4.04 亿元，预计26Q1 将数禾投资相关的资本公 积5.65 亿元转入当期投资收益。 分红金额、梯媒主业及主业现金流不受影响。资产减值损失属于非经不影响扣非净利润，公司此前公告 2024-2026 年分红不低于扣非净利润的80%。我们假设分红金额等于2024 年末47.6 亿，股息率4.43% （对应1 月23 日收盘价），是分众估值的重要支撑。基本面稳健，我们预计AI 应用投放竞争激烈有望 对2026 年收入有明显正贡献，此外持续跟踪：1）并购和成本端变化；2）互联网及AI 产品增投；3） 支付宝碰一碰等。 维持"买入"评级。考虑分众传媒并购新潮传媒的交易方案尚需审批，消费低迷以及减值影响，我们下调 2025 年-2027 年收入预测至1 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.44 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 8.76/6.21 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.11 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 01-23 02-23 03-23 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01-23 分众传媒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 联系人 上证指数/深证成指 4,136.16/14,439.66 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 1.14 | | 资产 ...

风险提示：海外扩张不及预期风险、竞争风险、广告主投放不及预期风险。 卖水人模式下有望受益于大模型C 端应用爆发，碰一碰创新模式打通品效转化链路。追踪来看，受益于 大模型应用的持续迭代，26Q1 千问及阿福在分众端出现明显增投。 维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。考虑到数禾相关影响，我们下调25 年盈利预测，上调26 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为34.3/60.4/61.5亿元。考虑到公司有望持续受益于新产业趋势，业绩有望 受益于海外业务开展有序、新潮传媒整合，维持 "强烈推荐"投资评级。 事件: 公司于1 月23 日公告拟以人民币7.91 亿元的对价完全退出数禾科技投资项目，对"长期股权投资- 数禾"计提减值21.53 亿元；该资产账面价值为29.44亿元、可回收金额为7.91 亿元。公司已与交易各方 签署《框架协议》并收到首付款人民币4.04 亿元；公司确认已从数禾退出，数禾不再是公司的联营公 司。 数禾科技受互联网助贷规范通知影响出现亏损，料该事项为一次性、非经常损益确认。2025 年10 月1 日起实施的互联网助贷规范通知，从资质审核、合作模式、风险分担等环节从严，导致数禾核心业务承 ...