Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvement in profitability by 2025, with a continuous increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, indicating a strong performance in peak seasons. Airlines are projected to reduce losses significantly in 2025, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines forecasting net profits of -1.6 billion, -1.6 billion, 0.9 billion, and 2.0 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a reduction in losses [3][4]. - The oil shipping sector anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q1 2026, driven by rising oil production in the Middle East and South America, as well as changes in import regulations from India. The report highlights a bullish outlook for the oil shipping market, suggesting a super bull market is on the horizon [3][4]. - The railway sector plans for a 3.5% increase in passenger flow in 2026, with recent adjustments to train schedules increasing the number of scheduled passenger trains by 2%. The report notes that the railway network has expanded significantly, enhancing connectivity across major urban areas [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in civil aviation passenger volume for 2025, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow by 4% and international passenger volume by 22% [6][9]. - The Spring Festival demand is anticipated to remain strong, with an estimated 10% year-on-year increase in passenger flow during the holiday period [4]. Oil Shipping - The report indicates that the average earnings for oil tankers are expected to increase significantly, with the TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for VLCCs on the Middle East to China route rising to 123,000 USD, reflecting a robust demand outlook [4][5]. Railway - The railway sector's operational capacity has expanded, with over 165,000 kilometers of operational railways, including more than 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. The report estimates that the number of passengers transported by rail will reach 4.402 billion in 2026, marking a new high [4].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 2026 年 01 月 30 日 相关研究 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 《景气度持续提升，从量变到质变—— 2025 下半年航空板块投资策略》 2025/06/12 《全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入 成熟期——2025 航空及海外飞机制造链 年度策略》 2024/11/27 《航空出行渐入常态，再强调"国际+供 给"双主线——2024 航空机场中期策 略》 2024/06/14 《不同周期阶段的不同演绎，民航业东升 西降趋势确定-2024 航空机场投资展望》 2023/12/05 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is strategically purchasing A350F freighters to align with its development plans and market demand, which will optimize its fleet structure and provide long-term operational capacity support [1] Group 1: Aircraft Orders - The company has signed a firm order for 6 A350F freighters with Airbus, expected to be delivered between 2029 and 2031 [1] - Additionally, there is an option for 4 more A350F freighters, with the latest exercise deadline set for the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Market and Operational Strategy - The procurement of A350F freighters is aimed at building a fleet structure that meets market and customer needs for medium and large cargo aircraft [1] - This move is intended to provide core resource support for stable long-term operations [1]

国内航线多为波音737、空客A320、商飞C919这样的160座级载客量的单通道客机执飞。按照征求意见 稿，航班经济舱总座位数小于160（含），免费可选座位范围不低于经济舱总座位数的 70%。假定160 座级客机商务舱座位8个，就意味或有45个左右的经济舱座位航司有权锁座；且这45个座位并不包含12 个左右的安全出口座位，即运行保障性预留座位，这意味着作为增值服务性预留座位大概率为经济舱的 前7-8排。这一锁座比例是否合适，旅客的接受度如何，同样需要观察。 航班"锁座"将有明确标准。1月29日，中国航空运输协会发布关于《公共航空运输企业航班预留座位规 则（征求意见稿）》，首次系统规范航空公司经济舱座位预留的种类、范围、比例及信息告知等关键内 容。 简单来说，征求意见稿规定，国内航班不得开展现金选座服务，仅可使用积分/里程兑换增值服务性预 留座位；国内航班免费可选座位比例最低70%，国际及地区航班免费座位比例最低65%；航司需明确预 留座位释放时间，防止"最后一刻"才放座，且要以显著方式告知免费与预留座位范围等。 这样看来，航班付费选座争议或迎来终结。但需明确的是，征求意见稿仅是团体标准，并非行政法规， 因而无 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者冯智君 报道：1月30日10时25分，吉祥航空HO1025航班平稳降落在 揭阳潮汕机场，标注着吉祥航空执飞的上海浦东—揭阳潮汕航线首航任务圆满完成。 据介绍，这是吉祥航空首次进驻揭阳潮汕机场，该航线采用空客A320机型执飞，航班号为HO1025/HO1 026，班期为每周一、三、五、日。具体航班时刻为07时55分从上海浦东起飞，10时25分抵达揭阳潮 汕；11时10分从揭阳潮汕起飞，13时15分抵达上海浦东，以上均为北京时间。此次引进吉祥航空执飞航 线，为广大旅客带来更多航班选择，也进一步完善了揭阳潮汕机场的干线网络及市场结构布局。 机场方表示，为全力做好春运服务保障，机场将优化候机环境，增设便民服务设施，在航站楼举办民俗 表演，联合商家推出系列新春特惠购物、餐饮折扣活动，让广大旅客在出行中感受到浓浓的年味和暖暖 的服务，切实提升旅客春运出行体验。（编辑：贾昊天 校对：李海燕 审核：韩磊） 据悉，2026年春运，为精准对接市场多元化出行需求，揭阳潮汕机场积极联动多家航空公司加大运力投 放，加密了北京、上海、成都、重庆、贵阳、海口、杭州、昆明、兰州、长沙、郑州等热门航点航班， 恢 ...

Core Insights - The visit of Finnish Prime Minister Orpo to China resulted in practical cooperation outcomes in the economic and trade sectors, with over 50 companies from both countries signing multiple business agreements focusing on innovation, green technology, and digitalization [1][7]. Group 1: Aviation and Tourism - A new direct flight route from Beijing Daxing to Helsinki is set to launch on March 29, 2026, operated by China Southern Airlines, marking the first direct flight to Finland from Daxing Airport [1]. - The initial operation will feature three flights per week, increasing to daily flights during peak tourist seasons, enhancing connectivity for Chinese tourists traveling to Finland and the Nordic region [3][4]. - The Finnish National Tourism Board reported a stable annual increase in overnight stays by Chinese tourists in Finland, indicating a strong interest in the destination [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Cooperation - The high-level dialogue between China and Finland resulted in the signing of over ten trade agreements and memorandums of understanding, covering areas such as trade, sustainable construction, energy cooperation, and tourism promotion [7][12]. - Finland is recognized for its strong performance in attracting international tourists, particularly from Asia, with Lapland being a preferred winter destination [9]. - The bilateral trade volume between China and Finland is projected to exceed $8 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in mutual investments [12].

Core Viewpoint - The China Air Transport Association has released a draft standard for public consultation regarding the reservation of seats on flights, aiming to regulate the classification and information disclosure of economy class seats by airlines [1][2]. Group 1: Seat Classification and Regulations - Airlines are required to categorize economy class seats into "free selectable seats" and "reserved seats" [2]. - Reserved seats are further divided into operationally necessary reserved seats (for safety and service needs) and value-added reserved seats (including reward points/miles redemption and paid reservations for international and regional flights) [2]. - Domestic flights must ensure that at least 70% of economy class seats are free selectable, while international and regional flights must have a minimum of 65% [2]. Group 2: Information Disclosure and Transparency - Airlines must clearly inform passengers about the categories of free and reserved seats, redemption standards, paid selection prices (for international and regional flights), and the release time of reserved seats [2]. - A clear seat map must be provided to distinguish between "free selectable," "member selectable," "not selectable online," and "selected seats" to avoid ambiguity and misleading information [2]. Group 3: Consumer Complaints and Industry Response - Several airlines have faced scrutiny for locking certain desirable seats, leading to consumer complaints about unfair practices [3]. - The Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee has conducted investigations and engaged with multiple airlines regarding the locking of seats that should be part of standard services [3]. - Airlines such as 吉祥航空 and 四川航空 have acknowledged the issues and are undertaking internal evaluations and corrective actions in response to the consumer protection committee's findings [3].

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.49% on January 29, with Huaxia Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 30.95, up 1.14% with a trading volume of 196,800 shares and a turnover of 605 million yuan [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 17.68, up 0.68% with a trading volume of 80,100 shares and a turnover of 141 million yuan [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.58, up 0.21% with a trading volume of 197,200 shares and a turnover of 188 million yuan [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.24, down 0.14% with a trading volume of 212,700 shares and a turnover of 153 million yuan [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 55.95, down 0.25% with a trading volume of 42,400 shares and a turnover of 236 million yuan [1] - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.68, down 0.59% with a trading volume of 3,055,900 shares and a turnover of 513 million yuan [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.20, down 1.10% with a trading volume of 1,070,300 shares and a turnover of 768 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 242 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 230 million yuan [3] - Major stocks like Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport had varying net inflows and outflows from different investor types [4] - Shanghai Airport had a net inflow of 28.37 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 39.44 million yuan [4] - China Southern Airlines had a net outflow of 10.48 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 22.85 million yuan from retail investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 3.00% increase over the last five days, with a net redemption of 78.67 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 2.17% increase, with a net redemption of 5.55 million yuan [7] - The Tourism ETF (product code: 562510) tracked the China Securities Tourism Theme Index and decreased by 4.77%, with a net inflow of 8.09 million yuan [7]