执业证书编号：S0740519050002 农商行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨超伦 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 9,644.44 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 9,316.58 | | 市价(元) | 8.64 | | 市值(百万元) | 83,328.00 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 80,495.28 | 2024-11-03 沪农商行（601825.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 26 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | ...

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——银行1季报整体稳健，推动供应链金融更好服务中小企业 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年5月5日 1 核心观点 银行1季报整体稳健，推动供应链金融更好服务中小企业 行业新闻 行业数据 • 银行1季报整体稳健，个体分化持续 • 规范供应链金融，更好服务中小企业融资 • 银行卡清算机构管理办法重修订，强调运营监督管理 • 银行：中国人民银行召开落实金融"五篇大文章"总体统计制度动员部署会议 • 证券：《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》出台 • 保险：发改委：推动稳就业稳经济 • 金融科技：中国支付清算协会发布收单外包风险提示 • 本周银行、证券、保险、金融科技指数分别变动-1.48%、-0.73%、-1.64%、+0.15% • 银行：公开市场操作实现净投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average interest rate for banks remains at 4.6%, despite a slowdown in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in Q1 2025 [1][8]. - The overall market performance of the banking sector has shown resilience, with a 0.3% increase over the past month and a 26.5% increase over the past year, outperforming the benchmark index [2][5]. - The report notes a shift in asset allocation by insurance companies towards FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) assets, which is expected to stabilize net investment income under new financial regulations [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Information from Annual and Quarterly Reports - In Q1 2025, listed banks experienced a revenue decline of 1.7% and a net profit decline of 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased contributions from non-interest income and provisions [8][9]. - The average non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.16%, while the average attention ratio increased to 1.88%, indicating ongoing risks in retail and small micro sectors [8][9]. 2. Dynamics of Insurance Asset Allocation - Insurance companies are increasing their allocation to long-term bonds to mitigate the pressure on net investment returns, with significant increases in FVOCI asset proportions across major insurers [8]. 3. Monthly Market Performance - In April 2025, the banking sector outperformed the index with a decline of only 0.47%, ranking 6th among 31 industry categories [5]. - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for state-owned banks was around 0.69, while joint-stock banks saw a decrease from 0.6 to 0.58 [5]. 4. Banking Fundamentals Tracking - The report indicates that 13 listed banks are expected to have a dividend yield exceeding 5% in 2025, with an average dividend payout ratio of 26.1%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [9]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, as well as high-quality regional banks with strong provisioning coverage, in light of the ongoing economic recovery [5].

文/中国国际经济交流中心博士后研究员、中邮理财有限责任公司高级投资经理 卜振兴 农信社当前存在的公司治理结构不完善、风险防控能力差等问题，背后体 现的是定位不清的问题。而农信社在改革中找准定位需要处理四个关系， 即顶层设计与自主探索的关系，商业运作与历史定位的关系，服务当地与 跨区域经营的关系，以及业务发展与风险防范的关系。处理好这四个关系 也就能找准农信社发展的定位，把握农信社改革发展的方向。 农信社是我国农村金融体系的重要组成部分，在推动农业农村建设，推动农民增收方面发挥了极其重要 的作用。党的十八大以来，农信社的改革发展进入一个新的阶段，尤其是2020年以来，农信社改革更进 一步。农信社当前存在的公司治理结构不完善、风险防控能力差等问题，背后体现的是定位不清的问 题。 而农信社在改革中找准定位需要处理四个关系，即顶层设计与自主探索的关系，商业运作与历史定位的 关系，服务当地与跨区域经营的关系，以及业务发展与风险防范的关系。处理好这几个关系也就能找准 农信社发展的定位，把握农信社改革发展的方向。 引言 从机构形态来看，农村信用社是农村商业银行、农村合作银行、农村信用合作联社等，这些机构在广义 上统称为"农 ...

一边加码科技与营销人才的高成本投入，一边通过智能化与流程优化压缩低效岗位，银行业正通过"结构性调 整"重塑人力成本逻辑。 人力成本支出普涨，员工总量逆势增长 2024年，围绕银行员工降薪的传闻屡屡牵动市场神经，而2024年年报则显示，2024年42家A股上市银行员工薪酬 总额、员工人均薪酬均值整体在上涨。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 卢梦雪 北京报道 在"降薪""裁员"的传闻中，银行"打工人"薪资的实际情况随上市银行年报的披露而揭开了真实面纱。 随着A股42家上市银行2024年年报披露收官，《华夏时报》记者梳理发现，2024年上市银行人力成本支出显著增 加，42家银行职工薪酬总额同比增幅超3%。 值得关注的是，42家银行员工总数较2023年末同比增加了约1.04万人，仅有14家"减员"。而2024年银行新增人力 投入聚焦于业务营销与信息科技领域，传统柜员及教育背景不占优势的员工岗位则持续精简。 从月薪来看，2024年42家银行员工人均月薪（未考虑年终奖分期支付的情况）均在2万元以上，但大多数银行（有 21家）人均月薪在3万元到4万元之间，另有12家银行人均月薪在4万元到5万元之 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (stock code: 601825) [1] Core Views - The bank has optimized deposit costs and achieved good credit growth at the beginning of the year. In 2024, the bank's revenue increased by 0.86% year-on-year, and net profit rose by 1.2% year-on-year, showing a gradual improvement since the first half of 2024 [5] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 2.86% in 2024 and by 5.21% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in asset yield. However, the bank's net profit maintained a positive growth of 0.34% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by a significant reduction in impairment losses [5] - The bank's asset quality has improved significantly, particularly in real estate loans, while retail non-performing loan risks have increased. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.97% at the end of 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue was CNY 26,641.34 million, with a growth rate of 0.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12,288.16 million, with a growth rate of 1.20% [40] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 10.35%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 6.15% year-on-year in 2024, with corporate loans growing by 5.62% and retail loans by 1.3% [5] - Total deposits grew by 5.32% year-on-year in 2024, with personal deposits increasing by 9.75% [5] Non-Interest Income and Investment - Non-interest income in 2024 increased by 14.36% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 11.82% due to fluctuations in investment income [5] - The bank's retail assets under management (AUM) grew by 6.63% year-on-year in 2024 [5] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan ratio was 0.97% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 339.27% [5] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 14.36% at the end of 2024 [5] Investment Recommendations - The bank has a strong regional advantage in Shanghai and is effectively leveraging its technology finance capabilities. The report suggests a focus on enhancing shareholder returns, with a proposed dividend payout ratio of 33.91% for 2024 [5]

Core Insights - Financial investment business is evolving from traditional tools to a new revenue engine for listed banks amid narrowing net interest margins and sluggish profit growth [2][3] - Bond investments are showing strong yield elasticity during the market interest rate decline in 2024, effectively cushioning the impact of declining net interest income on financial statements [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, 42 listed A-share banks reported a total net profit of 2.14 trillion yuan, averaging daily earnings of approximately 58.58 billion yuan [3] - The total financial investment amount reached 91.41 trillion yuan, generating 512.8 billion yuan in investment income, with over 90% of banks achieving year-on-year positive growth in investment income [3][4] - Among these banks, 37 reported positive growth in investment income, with five small and medium-sized banks achieving over 100% year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 2: Investment Trends - The average proportion of investment income to total revenue for the 42 listed banks increased to 15.61% in 2024, up from 12.33% in 2023 [4] - Nine banks had investment income accounting for over 20% of their revenue, all of which were small and medium-sized banks [4] - Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Beijing Bank reported investment income exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The preference for bond investments among small and medium-sized banks is attributed to narrowing net interest margins and increased competition [6][7] - The bond market has become a significant source of income for banks, especially for rural commercial banks, which have become active participants in the bond market [6][7] - The overall bond yield trend in 2024 was downward, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing to 1.68% by December 31, creating favorable conditions for bond investment income growth [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Many banks maintain an optimistic outlook on bond investments for 2025, anticipating continued opportunities in the bond market due to expected fluctuations in bond rates [8]

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing slight fluctuations while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices surged [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3279.03 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.83% to 1948.03 points [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 11,933 billion yuan, an increase of over 1,500 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector faced significant declines, with Huaxia Bank dropping 8.55%, and other major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China falling over 3% [2][3] - The first quarter financial results of 42 listed banks showed a total operating income of 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 563.98 billion yuan, down 1.2% [5] - Huaxia Bank reported a total profit of 6.73 billion yuan for the first quarter, a decline of 15.11% year-on-year, while Xiamen Bank's operating income fell by 18.42% [5] Automotive Industry - The automotive supply chain stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Lingdian Electric Control and Jingjin Electric reaching the daily limit of 20% increase, and others like Slin Group rising over 13% [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently released key points for automotive standardization, emphasizing the need for enhanced standards for intelligent connected vehicles, particularly in driver assistance and autonomous driving [10][12] - The regulatory clarity regarding L2 and L3 levels of autonomous driving is expected to lead to increased resource allocation and investment in the automotive intelligence sector [12] AI Applications - The AI application sector showed strong activity, with stocks like Chuangyi Information and Zhejiang Wenhe rising significantly, and several companies hitting the daily limit [7] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen released a new series of models, showcasing competitive performance against leading models in the industry, indicating a robust development in China's large model industry [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a shift with funds moving from previously popular sectors like banks and PEEK materials back to technology sectors, particularly computing power stocks [1] - As of the latest trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly 1% [1] Computing Power Stocks - Computing power concept stocks saw a significant surge, with companies like Hongbo Co., Ltd. (002229) achieving a four-day consecutive limit-up [2] - Other notable performers included Zhejiang Wenlian (600986) and Focus Technology (002315), both of which also hit their daily price limits [6][7] AI Sector Developments - The Beijing government has released a work plan to support the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy, which includes backing private enterprises in building intelligent computing centers and providing support for companies purchasing self-controlled GPU chips [8] - Major companies like Tencent and Alibaba have made substantial GPU resource purchases from ByteDance, with Tencent acquiring approximately 2 billion yuan worth [8] - ByteDance reportedly has around 1 million GPU cards, positioning it among the top in global computing power resources [8] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector faced a collective downturn, with Huaxia Bank leading the decline at 8%, while other major banks like China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China also saw declines exceeding 2% [9][10] - Specific financial results for Q1 2025 showed Huaxia Bank's net profit at 5.063 billion yuan, down 14.04% year-on-year, and China Construction Bank's net profit at 83.35 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for 2024 was $441,900,000, an increase of 21.5% from $363,700,000 in 2023 [28] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 492% to $9,800,000 for 2024 compared to $1,600,000 in the prior year [32] - Operating costs and expenses rose to $500,300,000 in 2024 from $379,200,000 in 2023 [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Auto insurance revenue increased by 44.4% to $170,500,000 in 2024 from $118,100,000 in 2023, driven by strong partnerships and increased policy sales [29] - Technology services revenue grew by 46.4% to $44,900,000 in 2024, up from $30,700,000 in the previous year [29] - Auto services revenue increased by 5.3% to $226,500,000 in 2024 from $215,000,000 in 2023 [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on digitalizing China's domestic auto insurance and services markets, targeting over 330 million drivers who still purchase insurance offline [6] - The partnership with Tesla expanded to 48 cities from six earlier in the year, indicating significant market penetration [8][20] - The gas vehicle market remains larger than the EV market, presenting a substantial growth opportunity for the company [8][45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI and cloud technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26][34] - There is a strong focus on developing customized insurance products and enhancing partnerships with auto manufacturers [20][27] - The company is committed to remaining a technology leader in the market, utilizing AI extensively to improve service efficiency [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth of the insurance business and the positive impact of AI on operations and profitability [41][42] - The ongoing digitalization trend in China's auto insurance market is seen as a significant opportunity for the company [12][19] - Management highlighted the importance of partnerships with EV manufacturers to enhance customer engagement and service offerings [19][37] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $100,000,000 in industry-specific cloud, AI, mobile apps, and data infrastructure [37] - The company has secured a two-year agreement with SAIC Maxis to enhance insurance sales management across its dealership network [21] - The company plans to issue guidance with its first quarter 2025 earnings release, subject to market conditions [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What impact if any will U.S. Tariffs have on SunCar's business? - Management does not expect U.S. Tariffs to have a material direct impact as the business is focused on China's domestic market [36] Question: Why have so many EV manufacturers been interested in partnering with SunCar? - The company's long-standing market presence and significant investment in technology have created a differentiated solution that meets evolving needs [37] Question: How do you see your Tesla relationship evolving over time? - Tesla is viewed as a strong partner in expanding the portfolio of insurance products and enhancing service delivery [38] Question: What do you attribute the rapid growth of your insurance business to? - Differentiation and the need for manufacturers to monetize customer relationships beyond vehicle sales are key factors [39] Question: How do you view your profitability tracking over the next year? - Continued strong growth in the insurance business is expected to contribute positively to profitability [41] Question: How do you view AI impacting your business in 2025? - AI has been significantly impactful, with plans to integrate it into more features to optimize customer experience [43] Question: How impactful will gas vehicle customers be on your insurance business this year? - The gas vehicle market is larger and is increasingly adopting digital solutions, which is expected to drive significant business [44] Question: What do you see as the future of your Angi AI technology services center? - The center will play a critical role in innovating new insurance products and enhancing collaboration with auto partners [46] Question: What do you see as the most exciting aspect of your services business? - New customer segments such as retail and luxury present exciting growth opportunities [47] Question: Will you be issuing guidance this year? - Guidance is planned to be issued with the first quarter 2025 earnings release [48] Question: Do you expect it will be another large employee stock compensation expense this year? - No, the previous year's expense was a one-time event and not expected to recur [49]