www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 结构融资一部 评级总监 杨 威 010-66428877-361 wyang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 个人消费类贷款证券化 个人消费类贷款 ABS 发行及二级交易有所回升， 但四季度以来消费金融公司发行暂缓；发行利率 持续处于低位；不同机构产品累计违约率有所分 化 ——个人消费类贷款证券化 2025 年度运营报告与 2026 年度展望 要点： 特别评论 2026 年 2 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 要点 | 1 | | 正文 | 2 | | 结论 | 11 | | 附表 | 12 | 联络人 作者 结构融资一部 刘 昊 010-66428877-681 hliu.terry@ccxi.com.cn 马家瑶 010-66428877-596 jyma@ccxi.com.cn 闫晨溦 010-66428877-475 chwyan@ccxi.com.cn 政策方面，2025 年，居民人均可支配收入保持增长，但个人消费意 愿仍偏弱。国家出台了多项政策降低居民融资成本，提升居民消费 意愿与消费能力，并持续规范消费信贷市场发展； 发行方面 ...

南京银行（601009.SH）江苏交控拟增持点评 股东增持显信心 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 11.33 元 | [Table_Author] | 分析师 王先爽 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120014 | | 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 乔丹 | | 执业证书： S0590526010003 | | 邮箱： qiaodan@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 南京银行 沪深300 相关研究 1． 南京银行（601009.SH）2025 年度业绩快 报点评：营收双位增长，客户基础夯实- 2026/01/23 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 50,273 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a shift in deposit structures due to declining deposit interest rates, leading to a phenomenon known as "deposit migration" as customers seek higher-yielding products [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the CSI Bank Index (399986) increased by 0.30%, with notable gains from Qingdao Bank (up 1.98%), Nanjing Bank (up 1.41%), Qilu Bank (up 1.36%), Qingnong Commercial Bank (up 1.25%), and Zijin Bank (up 1.06%) [1] - The Bank ETF Huaxia (515020) rose by 0.36%, with the latest price reported at 1.69 yuan [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - The People's Bank of China indicated in the 2025 Q4 "Monetary Policy Execution Report" that both residents and enterprises are increasingly allocating assets towards wealth management and fund products, resulting in a sustained increase in asset management funds raised [1] - Despite the shift towards wealth management products, new assets in these products are primarily directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, indicating that funds are still returning to the banking system, albeit in a different structure [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Dongfang Securities anticipates that the banking sector will return to a fundamental narrative in 2026, expressing optimism for absolute returns in the banking sector for that year [1] - The Bank ETF Huaxia (515020) is noted for having the lowest comprehensive fee rate among ETFs tracking the CSI Bank Index (399986), with associated funds A class (008298), C class (008299), and D class (024642) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Increasing number of banks are adopting mid-year dividend plans, with 17 A-share listed banks planning to implement mid-year dividends for 2024, reflecting a shift towards more frequent cash distributions to investors [1][2][3] Group 1: Mid-Year Dividend Plans - CITIC Bank has expressed its intention to implement a mid-year dividend for 2024, following the lead of Minsheng Bank, marking it as the second shareholding bank to announce such plans [2] - As of July 4, 2023, 17 out of 42 A-share listed banks have decided to implement mid-year dividends for 2024, with six major state-owned banks already having made arrangements [2][3] - The mid-year dividend plans are part of a broader trend among banks to enhance investor returns and improve liquidity [1][4] Group 2: Regulatory Influence - The Chinese government has introduced policies to strengthen cash dividend regulations, encouraging companies to adopt stable and predictable dividend policies, including multiple distributions within a year [4][5] - The new regulations aim to enhance the frequency of dividends, aligning domestic banks with international practices where dividends are distributed more frequently [5] Group 3: Impact on Investor Sentiment - Increased dividend frequency is expected to enhance investor confidence and attract more investments, as it reflects banks' profitability and commitment to shareholder returns [3][5] - Analysts suggest that mid-year dividends can serve as a sign of banks' confidence in their earnings and can improve investor sentiment towards bank stocks [3][5] Group 4: Considerations for Banks - Banks need to balance dividend payouts with their profitability, capital adequacy, and risk management capabilities to ensure sustainable operations [5][6] - There is a need for banks to improve internal governance and operational efficiency to better serve the real economy while managing dividend policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector continues to attract significant investment, with major banks' stock prices reaching new highs, driven by shareholder and executive buybacks [1][5]. Group 1: Shareholder Buybacks - Seven banks have seen their shareholders and executives increase their stakes in their own companies this year [1]. - Shanghai International Group's subsidiary increased its stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank by 93,999,979 shares, representing 0.32% of the total share capital [2]. - Ping An Life increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank by 12.48 million H-shares, investing approximately HKD 572 million, raising its total holdings to 368 million H-shares, which is over 8% of the total [2]. - Lanzhou Bank's major shareholder increased its stake by 419,120 shares, amounting to approximately RMB 1 million [3]. - Everbright Bank and other banks have also seen significant shareholder buybacks, with Everbright Group planning to increase its stake by up to RMB 800 million [4]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Growth - In 2024, 30 listed banks received shareholder buybacks, indicating strong investor confidence [5]. - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC and ABC, received substantial increases in their shareholdings, totaling over 1 billion shares [5]. - Eight banks reported a net profit growth exceeding 10%, reflecting positive financial performance [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Factors - Regulatory requirements for managing the market value of banks with low price-to-book ratios have prompted shareholder buybacks [7]. - The upcoming maturity of convertible bonds and low conversion rates have made shareholder buybacks a strategic move to enhance core tier one capital [7]. - The recent National People's Congress meeting highlighted economic growth targets and supportive fiscal policies, which are expected to improve the banking environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a volatile afternoon with notable gains, particularly for several banks including Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Agricultural Bank, which all saw increases in their stock prices [1] Group 1 - Qingdao Bank rose nearly 2% [1] - Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Agricultural Bank all increased by over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Zijin Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, all rising over 1% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the continuous increase in shareholding by major shareholders reflects strong confidence in Nanjing Bank's future development [7] - Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd. is expected to increase its stake, potentially raising its ownership to 19.99%, which could further boost the company's stock price [7] - Nanjing Bank is focusing on the Yangtze River Delta region, maintaining double-digit credit growth and achieving stable asset quality [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Nanjing Bank are as follows: - 2024: 50,273 million yuan - 2025: 55,540 million yuan (growth rate of 11.3%) - 2026: 61,207 million yuan (growth rate of 10.5%) - 2027: 66,794 million yuan (growth rate of 10.2%) [7][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as: - 2024: 20,177 million yuan - 2025: 21,807 million yuan (growth rate of 9.1%) - 2026: 23,846 million yuan (growth rate of 8.1%) - 2027: 25,961 million yuan (growth rate of 9.4%) [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 1.72 yuan - 2025: 1.67 yuan - 2026: 1.84 yuan - 2027: 2.01 yuan [7][10] Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders have increased their holdings significantly since 2022, with a total increase of 1.288 billion shares, representing 10.42% of the total share capital by the end of 2025 [7][8] - The total market value of the shares acquired by major shareholders amounts to approximately 136.52 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of personal credit repair policies and the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support high-quality development [3][5] - The social comprehensive financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest rate for new loans at approximately 3.15%, down 10 basis points from September [2] - The report highlights the rapid growth of asset management products, which is changing the deposit structure and maintaining liquidity stability [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Personal Credit Repair and Risk Prevention - The central bank has introduced a one-time personal credit repair policy to support individuals with overdue information under 10,000 yuan after full repayment, aiming to stimulate micro-entity vitality [4] Section 2: Financing Costs and Credit Structure - The weighted average interest rates for general loans and corporate loans have decreased to 3.55% and 3.10%, respectively, while personal housing loan rates remained stable at 3.06% [2] - Loans for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital economy sectors have shown significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, and 14.1% respectively [2] Section 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Collaboration - The central bank has increased the quotas for re-loans aimed at technological innovation and small enterprises by 900 billion yuan, alongside a dedicated 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [3] - The green loan balance reached 44.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust green finance market [3] Section 4: Liquidity and Credit Governance - The report suggests observing liquidity from a combined perspective of asset management products and bank deposits, noting an 8.1% year-on-year growth in total liquidity indicators [4] - The overall social financing environment remains loose, supporting the ongoing credit repair initiatives [4] Section 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable growth in financial totals and implement moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on price recovery and risk prevention [5] - The report outlines the need for improved market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms to better reflect loan market rates [5]

今日提示 ·中芯国际2月11日举行2025年第四季度业绩说明会。 ·国新办2月11日举行新闻发布会，介绍2026"乐购新春"等情况。 ·松延动力Bumi-X1智脑版联名机器人2月11日正式预售。 ·*ST立方自查工作完成，公司股票2月11日开市起复牌。 上证精选 ·央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告，其中提出，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情 况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和 社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同 经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ·2月10日，国家发展改革委等部门发布《关于加快招标投标领域人工智能推广应用的实施意见》，其中 提出，积极稳妥推进人工智能在招标投标领域的应用，改进招标投标范式，提升服务和监管的数智化水 平，为保障公共资源公平高效配置、规范招标投标市场秩序提供有力支撑。2026年底，招标文件检测、 智能辅助评标、围串标识别等重点场景在部分省市实现全覆盖应用。 ·2 ...