Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the operational status of various express delivery companies during the upcoming Spring Festival, highlighting that most companies will continue to provide services but may implement additional charges due to increased demand and resource allocation challenges [2][4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that it will operate year-round but may introduce additional charges for pick-up services, with specific details to be announced later [4]. - JD Logistics indicated that during the peak period from January 19 to February 23, 2026, it will impose a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg on express heavy cargo, depending on the station [4]. - SF Express announced that it will charge a resource adjustment fee during the Spring Festival from February 16 to February 23, with reports of price increases in certain areas [5]. - YTO Express stated that it will maintain normal operations except for certain regions affected by third-party logistics or weather, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [5]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with some areas experiencing delays and potential price increases [6]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies are preparing for potential delays in delivery times due to limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [6]. - Different express delivery companies may have varying operational statuses based on local conditions, with some branches still awaiting specific instructions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" trending on social media has caused public anxiety, prompting multiple express delivery companies to announce their service arrangements during the Spring Festival, ensuring continued delivery services to meet holiday demand [1]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that delivery services will operate year-round, but there may be additional charges for pick-up services, with specific regulations to be announced later [1]. - JD Logistics indicated that due to peak delivery volumes, some stations may implement scheduling changes and resource adjustment fees, with a peak resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg applicable from January 19 to February 23, 2026 [1]. - SF Express and Debon Express both stated that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, but transportation costs will be adjusted, with SF Express planning to charge resource adjustment fees during the holiday period [1]. - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, they will ensure service continuity and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics or weather [2]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [2]. - Zhongtong Express stated they will ensure customer delivery needs are met, with staffing adjustments based on local conditions, although some locations may not guarantee timely delivery [2]. - Shentong Express also confirmed normal service during the holiday, with possible adjustments to delivery fees based on local conditions [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Express delivery companies warned that delivery efficiency may be impacted by limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the operational adjustments and service arrangements of various express delivery companies during the upcoming Spring Festival, highlighting potential price increases and service delays due to high demand and resource allocation challenges. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that it will continue operations year-round but may implement additional charges for pick-up services, with specific regulations to be announced later [1]. - JD Logistics indicated that during the peak period from January 19 to February 23, 2026, it will charge a peak resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg on express heavy cargo products, depending on the station [1]. - SF Express and Debon Express both stated they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, but transportation costs will be adjusted, with SF Express planning to charge a resource adjustment fee during the holiday period [1]. - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, it will ensure smooth service and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics or weather [2]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [2]. - Zhongtong Express stated it will ensure the smooth operation of logistics services during the holiday, with variations in service based on local conditions [2]. - Shentong Express also confirmed it will provide normal collection and delivery services, with possible adjustments to operations based on local circumstances [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - The express delivery companies warned that due to limited resource allocation and extreme weather changes during the holiday period, the timeliness of deliveries may be affected to varying degrees [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential for a "golden era" in aviation [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes India's potential reduction in oil imports from Russia, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which could impact shipping dynamics [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar is expected to benefit the shipbuilding sector, with Q1 performance anticipated to improve [3]. - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for significant growth due to historical high passenger load factors and increasing international travel demand, despite supply constraints [3]. Summary by Sections Transportation Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.90%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.23 percentage points [4]. - The aviation sector saw the highest increase at 8.15%, while the raw materials supply chain services experienced a decline of 2.10% [4]. Shipping and Freight Rates - The VLCC average freight rate rose slightly by 2% to $124,743 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates remaining stable at $134,282 per day [3]. - The report notes fluctuations in various shipping rates, with Suezmax rates declining by 3% to $94,768 per day and Aframax rates down by 7% to $91,146 per day [3]. Aviation Sector - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [3]. - It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as more capacity is allocated to international routes, marking a turning point for the industry [3]. Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to gain market share [3]. - SF Express is noted for its structural adjustments and potential bottoming opportunities [3]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national rail freight reaching 76.1 million tons, a 2.27% increase week-on-week [3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend stocks and undervalued stocks with potential for market capitalization management [3].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether express delivery services will be suspended during the Spring Festival has garnered attention, with major companies confirming they will continue to provide services during this period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post will continue to provide services from February 15 to 23, allowing users to submit collection requests through various online channels and providing customer service via a dedicated hotline [1]. - SF Express will ensure the operation of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, adjusting service fees for certain shipments, with additional resource adjustment fees applied during the holiday [1]. - YTO Express will maintain service availability during the Spring Festival, with normal operations in most regions, except for areas affected by third-party logistics disruptions or weather conditions [2]. - Shentong Express will adjust operations based on local conditions, with most areas expected to have normal collection and delivery services, advising users to confirm specific times with local outlets [2]. - Zhongtong Express will also ensure stable logistics support during the Spring Festival, while JD Logistics commits to providing comprehensive logistics safety and service coverage, including same-day and next-day delivery options [3]. Group 2: Service Adjustments and Fees - SF Express will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.5 yuan/kg for shipments over 20kg from January 19 to February 15, with additional fees during the holiday period [1]. - JD Logistics will implement a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg for express heavy goods during the Spring Festival [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" trending on social media has caused public anxiety, prompting multiple express delivery companies to announce their service arrangements during the Spring Festival, ensuring continued collection and delivery services to meet holiday demand [1] Group 1: Company Responses - SF Express and Debon Express confirmed that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, although transportation fees will be adjusted. SF Express will impose a resource adjustment fee from February 16 to February 23, with some areas experiencing a price increase of 10 yuan [4] - China Post Express Logistics stated that they will operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, with specific regulations to be announced later [5] - JD Logistics indicated that service availability may vary based on express delivery volume during the Spring Festival, with potential resource adjustment fees depending on the station [5] - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, they will ensure service continuity and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics suspensions or weather conditions [9] - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-province and 4-5 days for inter-province deliveries [9] - Zhongtong Express stated they will reasonably ensure customer delivery needs and maintain smooth logistics support, with variations in service based on local conditions [9] - Shentong Express affirmed they will operate normally during the Spring Festival, with possible adjustments to service arrangements and fees based on local circumstances [9] Group 2: Service Impact and Adjustments - Express delivery companies warned that service efficiency may be affected by limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [8]