Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huali Industrial Group [1][2][6] Core Insights - Brand orders diverged in 2025, with expectations for continued trends into 2026, but order growth is anticipated to rebound significantly [3][10] - The company is expected to see low single-digit order growth in 2025, driven primarily by brands like Adidas, New Balance, On Running, and Asics, while facing order pullbacks from Converse, Vans, and Puma due to high inventory levels [3][10] - For 2026, high-growth brands are expected to maintain strong performance, with overall order growth projected to recover to high single digits and 10% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 25.174 billion, RMB 27.108 billion, and RMB 29.904 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 7.7%, and 10.3% [6][13] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 3.388 billion, RMB 3.880 billion, and RMB 4.382 billion, with year-on-year growth of -11.8%, 14.5%, and 12.9% [6][13] Gross Margin and Capital Expenditure - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve sequentially, with forecasts of 22.1%, 23.2%, and 24.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12] - Capital expenditure (Capex) is entering a downward trend, with a focus on efficiency and returns rather than aggressive capacity expansion [4][11]

Market Overview - The domestic retail sales in November 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, which is below market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.39 trillion yuan [8] - Cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8] - The consumer confidence index in October 2025 was recorded at 89.4, indicating a slight decline of 0.2 from the previous month [8] Industry Insights Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel retail sales growth in November 2025 decreased by 2.8 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][10] - The performance of major brands such as Bosideng is expected to remain strong due to continuous innovation in core products and a favorable comparison to last year's low base [7] - Recommendations include brands like 361 Degrees and Anta Sports, with a focus on their potential for growth in the upcoming seasons [7] Jewelry and Retail Sector - The jewelry retail sales in November 2025 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, driven primarily by price increases, despite a slight month-on-month decline [10] - Companies with strong terminal performance and differentiated products in the jewelry sector are recommended for investment [10] Electric Equipment and New Energy Sector - The report highlights that the company UBTECH has secured orders exceeding 50 million yuan for humanoid robots, indicating a growing demand in the AI and robotics market [11] - The central economic meeting emphasized the importance of green transformation and the establishment of a new energy system, which could benefit companies in the renewable energy sector [12] Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The report notes that the prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers have remained stable, with polysilicon prices at 52.0 yuan/kg and silicon wafer prices showing signs of stabilization after previous declines [12] - The battery cell prices have seen a slight decrease, with N-type battery cells priced at 0.28 yuan/W, indicating ongoing price pressures in the market [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the photovoltaic sector such as LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, as well as those involved in supply chain improvements and market-oriented energy solutions [13] - Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the retail sector [10]

证券日报网12月16日讯 华利集团（300979）在2025年12月16日回答调研者提问时表示，公司重视股东 投资回报，2021年度进行了两次分红（2021年中期及2021年年度），现金分红合计占全年净利润比例约 89%；2022年年度现金分红金额占净利润比例达43%；2023年年度现金分红金额占净利润比例约44%； 2024年年度现金分红金额占净利润比例约70%；今年增加了中期分红，2025年半年度现金分红金额占当 期净利润比例约70%.公司利润分配政策，会兼顾股东利益和公司发展的需要，未来几年还是资金开支 的高峰期，但是公司已经积累了较高的未分配利润（2025年9月末合并报表未分配利润金额约90亿元人 民币），公司现金流也非常好。在满足资本开支、合理日常运营资金外，公司会尽可能多分红。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully established its first factory in Indonesia, achieving profitability in the third quarter of 2025, and expresses confidence in the future profitability of its operations in the region due to favorable labor conditions and management adjustments [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company’s actual controller has prior experience in operating a shoe factory in Indonesia, indicating familiarity with the local market [1] - The first factory in Indonesia, named "Indonesian Shichuan," has met its internal profitability targets during the third quarter of 2025 [1] - The management team is optimistic about the profitability of the Indonesian factory once it matures, based on current operational performance [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Indonesia is recognized as a major player in the footwear industry, with many sports shoe manufacturers establishing factories there [1] - Compared to Vietnam, Indonesia offers advantages in labor supply and employment costs, which the company is leveraging by adjusting its management practices to fit local conditions [1]

证券日报网12月16日讯华利集团（300979）在2025年12月16日回答调研者提问时表示，公司的产能有一 定的弹性，每年具体的产能的配置将根据当年订单情况进行调整。公司在设定目标产能时，是根据工厂 的目前所处的阶段、接单型体的情况等来设置，比如还在投产初期的新工厂，目标产能根据新工厂目前 的产线数量、员工熟练度来设置。故公司会根据订单情况，合理调配产线投产进度、员工人数等，将产 能利用率维持在较高的水平。 ...

证券日报网12月16日讯 华利集团在2025年12月16日回答调研者提问时表示，考虑到客户订单的需求， 未来几年公司仍会保持积极的产能扩张。2024年投产的4家运动鞋量产工厂，2025年1-9月，已经有3家 工厂达成阶段性考核目标（内部核算口径实现盈利），其中包括公司在印尼开设的第一家工厂印尼世 川。未来3-5年，公司主要将在印尼新建工厂并尽快投产，具体的工厂投产进度公司将及时披露。公司 的产能除了通过新建工厂、设备更新提升产能外，还可以通过员工人数和加班时间的控制保持一定的弹 性，每年具体的产能的配置将根据当年订单情况进行调整。 （编辑 姚尧） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that despite rising labor costs in Vietnam, the investment environment for the footwear industry remains attractive for the foreseeable future [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company employs a cost-plus pricing model for its external sales, allowing it to adjust sales prices in response to changes in labor wages [1] - To mitigate risks and leverage cost advantages in Southeast Asia, the company has established a new factory in Indonesia, which is set to commence production in the first half of 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with retail sales showing low single-digit growth and exports declining year-on-year, particularly in the first half of 2025 [4][10][14] - From January to November 2025, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $305.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with a notable decline in footwear exports [14][17] - The textile and apparel index has increased by 15.1% from January to November 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.9 percentage points [23] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is focusing on the recovery of Nike, with expectations of increased order visibility and potential valuation recovery for manufacturers closely tied to leading brands [30][42] - Global apparel retail performance is varied, with the US and UK showing moderate growth while Japan continues to face challenges, impacting overall demand [32][34] - The long-term trend indicates a shift in manufacturing capacity from China to Southeast Asia, driven by international trade dynamics and labor costs [44][46] Group 3 - The outdoor sports market is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.8% from 2019 to 2024, driven by increasing participation in events like marathons [4][6] - Domestic sports brands are showing resilience, with brands like Anta and Li Ning benefiting from structural demand changes and expanding their market presence [7][30] - The demand for high-quality personal care products is on the rise, with opportunities for companies like Sturdy Medical and Nobon to capture market share [7][30]

编号：2025-031 | 投资者关系 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称 | 深圳市巾凡咨询有限公司-李嘉峻，中泰证券-邹文婕，东北证券-刘家薇，海通国际-寇媛 | | 及人员姓名 | 媛、陈芳园，高盛亚洲-陈芷茵，平安证券-王源，李福平，佛山抱石投资-刘仲生，开源 | | | 证券-郭彬，重阳投资-许一欣 | | 时间 | 2025年12月16日 | | 地点 | 中山 | | 上市公司 | 董事会秘书方玲玲 | | 接待人员姓名 | | | | 参加公司组织的调研活动（线下）的来访人员按深交所规定签署了《承诺书》。 | | | 投资者与公司的交流情况： | | | 问：印尼工厂爬坡情况如何？若印尼工厂未来达到成熟运营状态，其盈利能力是否与越 | | | 南工厂不会存在差异？ | | | 答：印尼是制鞋业大国，很多运动鞋制造商在印尼开设了工厂。公司实控人之前在印尼 | | | 也开过制鞋工厂，公司也有在印尼工作过的工厂管理人员，所以印尼对公司不是陌生的 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry maintains a "Synchronize with the Market" rating, indicating expected performance in line with the benchmark index [6][25]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the domestic retail sales (社零) grew by 1.3% year-on-year, which was below market expectations, with a total of 4.39 trillion yuan [3]. - Cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.0% year-on-year increase [3]. - The consumer confidence index in October 2025 was reported at 89.4, showing a slight decline of 0.2 from the previous month [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In November 2025, retail sales in the food and goods sectors grew by 3.2% and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7% year-on-year, outperforming the overall retail growth [4]. - The performance of various retail formats showed that convenience stores and supermarkets had year-on-year growth rates of 6.0% and 4.7%, respectively [4]. Consumer Trends - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival in October 2025 led to a demand pull-forward, resulting in a significant drop in retail sales growth for optional consumer goods in November [5]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in November, but this was a decline of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends brands such as 361 Degrees and Bosideng, highlighting Bosideng's innovative product lines and potential for double-digit revenue growth [6]. - For the textile manufacturing sector, companies like Shenzhou International and Yuanyuan Group are recommended due to their stable performance and strong client relationships [7]. - In the jewelry and retail sector, companies with strong terminal performance and product differentiation, such as Caibai Co. and Zhou Daxing, are suggested for investment [7]. Company Performance - Miniso's revenue growth exceeded previous guidance, with a notable increase in same-store sales in October 2025 [8]. - Yonghui Supermarket is also highlighted for its strategic adjustments in store openings and supply chain improvements, leading to a slight improvement in sales gross margin [8].