执业登记编码：S0760525060001 研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,824.81 | -1.11 | | 深证成指 | | 12,914.67 | -1.51 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20 | | 中小板指 | | 7,826.61 | -1.28 | | 创业板指 | | 3,071.76 | -2.10 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,293.38 | -1.94 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证纺服】11 月社零数据点评-11 月国内社零同比增长 1.3%，年初 至今累计同比增长 4.0% 【行业评论】电力设备及新能源：行业周报（20251208-20251214）- 优必选获 AI 大模型公司订单，两部委优化集中式新能源市场报价 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 行业研究/行业快报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 相关报告： 【山证纺织服装】李宁品牌旗下专业户 外门店开业，4 季度以来周大福同店销售 加速-【山证纺服】行业周报 2025.12.8 【山证纺织服装】10 月国内社零同比增 长 2.9%，可选消费品类增速环比提升- 【 山 证 纺 服 】 10 月 社 零 数 据 点 评 2025.11.17 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 纺织服装 社零数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 11 月国内社零同比增长 1.3%，年初至今累计同比增长 4.0% 事件描述： 品牌服饰板块：（一）今年，各大电商平台"双十一"大促开始时间普遍提前至十一 假期后开始，透支部分 11 月终端需求。2025 年 11 月，纺织服装社零单月增速边际 回落 2.8pct，体育娱乐用品社零 11 月单月增速显著放缓至 0.4%。继续推荐 361 度、 波司登，基于波司登今年核心产品泡芙系列和极寒系列的持续创新， ...

12月4日，以"链接全球，引领未来：'十五五'新机遇"为主题的2025（第十届）企业家博鳌论坛主论 坛在海南博鳌举行。本届论坛汇聚了众多世界500强、中国500强企业及行业领军者，共同探讨新时 期高质量发展路径。 论坛十年，亦是波司登与时代同频共振的缩影。波司登创业49年来，始终坚守实业报国初心，专注 羽绒服核心主业，从常熟乡间的缝纫组成长为全球知名的羽绒服品牌企业，连续30年中国市场销量 领先，产品畅销全球，品牌价值达1180.58亿元，连续入选世界品牌500强。 在全球化布局方面，波司登早在上世纪90年代就进入瑞士等欧洲市场，成为早期出海的中国品牌之 一。近年来，品牌相继亮相纽约、米兰、伦敦、巴黎等国际时装周，并持续拓展海外市场和产能，推 动从"产品出海"向"品牌出海"的转型。 创新被视为波司登塑造竞争新优势的核心。依托国家级工业设计中心、CNAS认证实验室等高端平 台，其登峰系列、泡芙系列等创新产品屡获国内外大奖。通过深度融合数字智能与制造体系，波司登 构建起"研产供销服"全链路协同体系，产品交付周期缩短至7-10天，"BSD.AI美学大脑"实现从设计 到虚拟成衣的数字化闭环。波司登坚信，唯有持续进行" ...

新华网海南博鳌12月4日电 十载博鳌潮涌，共绘时代新章。12月4日，以"链接全球，引领未来：'十五五'新机遇"为主题的2025企业家博鳌论坛 主论坛在海南博鳌举行。汇聚众多世界500强、中国500强企业及行业领军者，共话新时期高质量发展路径。 以品牌为桥，波司登链接全球创新资源迈向价值链中高端。早在上世纪90年代，波司登就率先进入瑞士等欧洲市场，成为中国品牌出海先行 者。近年来，品牌以全球视野高点定位，相继亮相纽约、米兰、伦敦、巴黎国际时装周，响应共建"一带一路"倡议，升级运营伦敦旗舰店，稳健拓 展国际产能与市场。通过品牌、产品、渠道与服务的一体化布局，波司登实现了从"产品出海"到"品牌出海"的价值跃升，让"中国温暖"赢得全球信 赖。 以创新为核，波司登加快形成新质生产力塑造竞争新优势。依托国家级工业设计中心、CNAS认证实验室等高端平台，其登峰系列、泡芙系列 等创新产品屡获国内外大奖。通过深度融合数字智能与制造体系，波司登构建起"研产供销服"全链路协同体系，产品交付周期缩短至7-10 天，"BSD.AI美学大脑"实现从设计到虚拟成衣的数字化闭环。波司登坚信，唯有持续进行"不可复制的创新"，才能真正将科技创新 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：叶乐/黄杨璐 核心观点 FY26H1（自然年25 年4 月-9 月）公司营收、归母净利润分别同比+1.4%、+5.3%，其中FY26H1 羽绒服 业务同比+8.3%，主品牌波司登、雪中飞品牌分别同比+8.3%、-3.2%；批发模式营收增速（+7.9%）快 于直营（+6.6 %）。截止9 月底，波司登、雪中飞品牌门店分别为3140、389 家，较财年初分 别-67、+126 家。FY2 6 H1公司OEM 和女装业务承压。FY26H1 公司毛利率50.0 %/+0 .1 p c t，主要系 毛利率较高的羽绒服业务占比提升。财务费用率同比-1.3pct 和其他收入占比同比+0.4pct 共同助力下， 公司经营利润率17.0%/+0.3pct、归母净利率13.3%/+0.5pct。展望FY26H2，波司登主品牌将加大羽绒品 类投入以及强化品类竞争优势，积极推进产品科技研发以及优化渠道布局，伴随着下半财年销售旺季来 临，预计有望提速增长，泡芙和极寒系列有望引领。10 月至今公司羽绒服主业销售表现良好。 事件 公司发布FY26H1 业绩公告（业绩期为2025 年4 月1 日-9 月30日）： ...

Group 1 - The company announced that British fashion designer KIM JONES will serve as the creative director for the AREAL series, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [1] - KIM JONES has a notable background, having worked as the artistic director for men's wear at LV and as a designer for Dior, aligning with the company's strategy of "professional down + high-quality design" [1] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with product prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [1] Group 2 - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, focusing on three main series: puff, outdoor, and extreme cold, with the extreme cold series expected to exceed 3.5 billion yuan in revenue [2] - The company is optimizing store locations and enhancing store image to improve channel structure, while also focusing on the quality of store operations [2] - Recent temperature drops in major cities are expected to stimulate demand for winter clothing, with the sales period for the upcoming Spring Festival extended by 2 to 3 weeks [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve its annual sales targets due to ongoing product innovation and improved channel quality, with projected net profits for fiscal years 2026-2028 being 3.931 billion, 4.382 billion, and 4.786 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for fiscal years 2026-2028 are 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 times, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 24/25, the company's revenue increased by 11.6% to 25.9 billion yuan, with brand down jackets revenue growing by 11% [1] - The main brand, Bosideng, saw a revenue increase of 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan, achieving growth despite the impact of a warm winter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan, driven by effective cost control [1] Group 2: Product Development and Brand Strategy - Bosideng launched the "Puff" series during Paris Fashion Week, featuring celebrities to enhance brand visibility [2] - The AREAL high-end urban line was introduced, including over 20 products priced between 2399 to 3999 yuan, focusing on business down jackets with functional materials and stylish designs [2] - The company collaborates with internationally renowned designers, such as Kim Jones, to strengthen brand positioning and international influence [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Sales Outlook - A significant drop in temperatures starting October 16 is expected to boost winter clothing sales, with some regions experiencing temperature drops of over 10°C [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival in late February 2026 will extend the winter clothing sales season by approximately 15 days compared to 2025, benefiting brand apparel sales [3] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.1% to 28.51 billion yuan in FY2026, with net profit expected to grow by 11.7% to 3.92 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in the full fiscal year, driven by product innovation and a strong sales performance in the down jacket segment [3][4] - The company has successfully upgraded its product offerings and improved channel management, which is anticipated to enhance sales during the peak season [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales season for down jackets has begun with recent temperature drops in North China, East China, and South China, leading to increased consumer demand for autumn and winter apparel [1] - The company has launched several innovative product lines, including high-end urban lines and outdoor jackets, which are expected to gain market recognition and drive revenue growth [1] Channel Management - The company has focused on refining its store operations, resulting in a net increase of 100 direct stores and 153 franchise stores by the end of FY2025, totaling 1,236 and 2,234 stores respectively [2] - Online sales are projected to account for over 30% of total sales in FY2025, indicating a significant growth channel for brand building and member marketing [2] Financial Projections - For FY2026, the company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 10% and a net profit growth rate expected to exceed revenue growth [3] - The report estimates that the company's revenue for FY2026 will reach approximately 28.54 billion RMB, with a net profit of around 3.90 billion RMB [5] Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a low initial order ratio, with less than 40% of orders being first-time orders, allowing for flexible inventory management and quick replenishment [4] - The inventory turnover days increased by 3 days to 118 days, with a year-end inventory value rising by 24% to 39.5 billion RMB, indicating proactive inventory management [4] Investment Outlook - The report projects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 at 3.90 billion, 4.39 billion, and 4.95 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), projecting revenue growth of 10.1%/10.4%/10.5% for FY2026-FY2028, reaching 28.51 billion/31.46 billion/34.77 billion yuan, and net profit growth of 11.7%/12.4%/11.8%, reaching 3.92 billion/4.41 billion/4.93 billion yuan, corresponding to valuations of 13/12/11 times [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2024/25, Bosideng's revenue is expected to grow by 11.6% to 25.9 billion yuan, with brand down jacket revenue increasing by 11%, and the main brand revenue rising by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan, achieving growth despite a warm winter [1] - The company’s net profit is projected to increase by 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan, driven by effective cost control leading to a steady rise in net profit margin [1] - For the first half of FY2025/26, the brand down jacket business is expected to develop steadily, while the OEM business faces pressure, with overall group revenue expected to remain flat year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product and Brand Development - Bosideng launched the "Puff" series during Paris Fashion Week, featuring celebrities like Guo Jingjing and Dong Jie, enhancing brand visibility [2] - The AREAL high-end urban line was officially launched on October 20, featuring over 20 products, including men's and women's clothing and accessories, priced between 2399-3999 yuan, focusing on business down jackets with functional fabrics and stylish designs [2] - The company continues to collaborate with internationally influential designers, including Kim Jones, former artistic director of men's wear at Louis Vuitton and Dior, to strengthen brand upgrades and enhance international influence [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - A significant cold front is expected to sweep through central and eastern China starting October 16, with temperature drops exceeding 10°C in some regions, marking the beginning of the down jacket sales season [2] - The winter clothing sales peak before the 2026 Spring Festival, which falls in late February 2026, is expected to be extended by approximately 15 days compared to 2025, benefiting brand winter clothing consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), projecting revenue growth of 10.1%/10.4%/10.5% for FY2026-FY2028, reaching 28.51 billion/31.46 billion/34.77 billion yuan, and net profit growth of 11.7%/12.4%/11.8%, reaching 3.92 billion/4.41 billion/4.93 billion yuan, with corresponding valuations of 13/12/11 times [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2024/25, Bosideng's revenue is expected to increase by 11.6% to 25.9 billion yuan, with brand down jacket revenue growing by 11%, and the main brand revenue increasing by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan, achieving growth despite a warm winter [1] - The company’s net profit is projected to grow by 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan, driven by effective cost control [1] - For the first half of FY2025/26, the brand down jacket business is expected to develop steadily, while the OEM business faces pressure, with overall group revenue expected to remain flat year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product and Brand Development - Bosideng launched the "Puff" series during Paris Fashion Week, featuring celebrities like Guo Jingjing and Dong Jie, enhancing brand visibility [2] - The AREAL high-end urban line was officially launched on October 20, featuring over 20 products, including men's and women's clothing and accessories, priced between 2399-3999 yuan, aligning with the company's strategy of "professional down jackets + high-quality design" [2] - The company continues to collaborate with internationally influential designers, such as Kim Jones, former artistic director of Louis Vuitton and Dior menswear, to strengthen brand upgrades and international influence [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - A significant cold front is expected to sweep through central and eastern China starting October 16, with temperature drops exceeding 10°C in some regions, marking the beginning of the down jacket sales season [2] - The winter clothing sales peak before the 2026 Spring Festival, which falls in late February 2026, is expected to be extended by approximately 15 days compared to 2025, benefiting brand clothing winter sales [2]