执业登记编码：S0760525060001 研究早观点 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,824.81 | -1.11 | | 深证成指 | | 12,914.67 | -1.51 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20 | | 中小板指 | | 7,826.61 | -1.28 | | 创业板指 | | 3,071.76 | -2.10 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,293.38 | -1.94 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证纺服】11 月社零数据点评-11 月国内社零同比增长 1.3%，年初 至今累计同比增长 4.0% 【行业评论】电力设备及新能源：行业周报（20251208-20251214）- 优必选获 AI 大模型公司订单，两部委优化集中式新能源市场报价 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 行业研究/行业快报 纺织服装行业近一年市场表现 相关报告： 【山证纺织服装】李宁品牌旗下专业户 外门店开业，4 季度以来周大福同店销售 加速-【山证纺服】行业周报 2025.12.8 【山证纺织服装】10 月国内社零同比增 长 2.9%，可选消费品类增速环比提升- 【 山 证 纺 服 】 10 月 社 零 数 据 点 评 2025.11.17 分析师： 王冯 执业登记编码：S0760522030003 邮箱：wangfeng@sxzq.com 孙萌 执业登记编码：S0760523050001 邮箱：sunmeng@sxzq.com 纺织服装 社零数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 11 月国内社零同比增长 1.3%，年初至今累计同比增长 4.0% 事件描述： 品牌服饰板块：（一）今年，各大电商平台"双十一"大促开始时间普遍提前至十一 假期后开始，透支部分 11 月终端需求。2025 年 11 月，纺织服装社零单月增速边际 回落 2.8pct，体育娱乐用品社零 11 月单月增速显著放缓至 0.4%。继续推荐 361 度、 波司登，基于波司登今年核心产品泡芙系列和极寒系列的持续创新， ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：叶乐/黄杨璐 核心观点 FY26H1（自然年25 年4 月-9 月）公司营收、归母净利润分别同比+1.4%、+5.3%，其中FY26H1 羽绒服 业务同比+8.3%，主品牌波司登、雪中飞品牌分别同比+8.3%、-3.2%；批发模式营收增速（+7.9%）快 于直营（+6.6 %）。截止9 月底，波司登、雪中飞品牌门店分别为3140、389 家，较财年初分 别-67、+126 家。FY2 6 H1公司OEM 和女装业务承压。FY26H1 公司毛利率50.0 %/+0 .1 p c t，主要系 毛利率较高的羽绒服业务占比提升。财务费用率同比-1.3pct 和其他收入占比同比+0.4pct 共同助力下， 公司经营利润率17.0%/+0.3pct、归母净利率13.3%/+0.5pct。展望FY26H2，波司登主品牌将加大羽绒品 类投入以及强化品类竞争优势，积极推进产品科技研发以及优化渠道布局，伴随着下半财年销售旺季来 临，预计有望提速增长，泡芙和极寒系列有望引领。10 月至今公司羽绒服主业销售表现良好。 事件 公司发布FY26H1 业绩公告（业绩期为2025 年4 月1 日-9 月30日）： ...

Summary of Bosideng's 2025 Half-Year Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bosideng - **Fiscal Year**: 2025 - **Industry**: Apparel, specifically down jackets Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: Achieved 11.9 billion CNY in the first half of FY2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the period [2][3] - **Operating Profit**: Increased by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching 11.9 billion CNY, also a historical high [3] - **Gross Margin**: Slightly improved to 50%, up by 0.1 percentage points [3] - **Inventory Turnover Days**: Decreased significantly to 178 days, down by 11 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] Business Segment Performance - **Down Jacket Business**: - Revenue grew by 8.3% to 65.68 billion CNY, accounting for 74% of total revenue [2][5] - The main brand performed well, with spring/summer product sales increasing from 15% to 18% of total sales [5] - Offline direct sales channels saw a comparable store growth of 6% [5] - **OEM Segment**: - Revenue declined by 11.7% to 20.4 billion CNY, impacted by external factors such as tariffs and geopolitical issues [5] - **Women's Wear and Diversified Apparel**: - Slight decline in revenue, but minimal impact on overall group performance [5] Market Strategy and Product Development - **New Products and Designer Collaborations**: - Demand for new and designer items exceeded expectations, particularly for the "Puff" product line, which is expected to see significant growth [6][15] - Classic items like the Extreme Cold series are anticipated to remain popular during peak season [6] - **E-commerce Strategy**: - Traditional e-commerce platforms (e.g., Tmall, JD) showed steady growth, with Tmall ranking second and JD first during the Double Eleven shopping festival [7][8] - Douyin (TikTok) saw rapid growth after restructuring its official flagship store [8] Inventory and Channel Management - **Inventory Management**: - Focused on destocking in the first half of FY2025 due to excess inventory from a warm winter in 2024 [9] - Healthy inventory levels maintained, with no anticipated burdens for the second half of the fiscal year [13] - **Channel Strategy**: - Expected revenue split between self-operated and distribution channels to be approximately 70:30 [4][9] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: - The company aims for a double-digit growth rate of 10% for the full fiscal year, with the down jacket segment expected to exceed 10% growth in the second half [4][11] - **Pricing Strategy**: - Average selling price (ASP) expected to remain stable or slightly increase compared to the previous year [18][19] - **Store Expansion**: - Anticipated slight increase in total store count, with plans to open and close several stores [20] Brand-Specific Strategies - **Xuezhongfei and Bingjie Brands**: - Focus on online sales with minimal changes in offline store strategy; Xuezhongfei aims to solidify its position in the ice and snow sports market [21] - **Response to Seasonal Sales Pressure**: - Sales performance aligns with expectations due to significant adjustments in inventory, channels, and product innovation [22] Additional Insights - **OEM Order Visibility**: - Long-term demand from large brands is promising, but immediate growth is not expected for the current fiscal year [12] - **Women's Wear Challenges**: - Short-term revenue and profit growth not anticipated; strategies include personnel optimization and product mix adjustments [16][17]

Group 1 - The company announced that British fashion designer KIM JONES will serve as the creative director for the AREAL series, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [1] - KIM JONES has a notable background, having worked as the artistic director for men's wear at LV and as a designer for Dior, aligning with the company's strategy of "professional down + high-quality design" [1] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with product prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [1] Group 2 - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, focusing on three main series: puff, outdoor, and extreme cold, with the extreme cold series expected to exceed 3.5 billion yuan in revenue [2] - The company is optimizing store locations and enhancing store image to improve channel structure, while also focusing on the quality of store operations [2] - Recent temperature drops in major cities are expected to stimulate demand for winter clothing, with the sales period for the upcoming Spring Festival extended by 2 to 3 weeks [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve its annual sales targets due to ongoing product innovation and improved channel quality, with projected net profits for fiscal years 2026-2028 being 3.931 billion, 4.382 billion, and 4.786 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for fiscal years 2026-2028 are 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 times, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in the full fiscal year, driven by product innovation and a strong sales performance in the down jacket segment [3][4] - The company has successfully upgraded its product offerings and improved channel management, which is anticipated to enhance sales during the peak season [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales season for down jackets has begun with recent temperature drops in North China, East China, and South China, leading to increased consumer demand for autumn and winter apparel [1] - The company has launched several innovative product lines, including high-end urban lines and outdoor jackets, which are expected to gain market recognition and drive revenue growth [1] Channel Management - The company has focused on refining its store operations, resulting in a net increase of 100 direct stores and 153 franchise stores by the end of FY2025, totaling 1,236 and 2,234 stores respectively [2] - Online sales are projected to account for over 30% of total sales in FY2025, indicating a significant growth channel for brand building and member marketing [2] Financial Projections - For FY2026, the company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 10% and a net profit growth rate expected to exceed revenue growth [3] - The report estimates that the company's revenue for FY2026 will reach approximately 28.54 billion RMB, with a net profit of around 3.90 billion RMB [5] Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a low initial order ratio, with less than 40% of orders being first-time orders, allowing for flexible inventory management and quick replenishment [4] - The inventory turnover days increased by 3 days to 118 days, with a year-end inventory value rising by 24% to 39.5 billion RMB, indicating proactive inventory management [4] Investment Outlook - The report projects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 at 3.90 billion, 4.39 billion, and 4.95 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [1][7] Core Insights - Bosideng has appointed renowned British fashion designer KIM JONES as the creative director for its high-end urban line AREAL, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [2][4] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [4] - The company continues to focus on product innovation and optimizing store operations, with a strong emphasis on seasonal sales and rapid response to market demand [5][6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.93 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.79 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 [7] - Projected revenue for the fiscal years 2024 to 2028 shows a steady increase from 23.21 billion yuan in 2024 to 34.11 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 11.6%, 10.1%, 9.9%, and 8.9% respectively [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.6% to 57.8% over the next five years, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2028 [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng showcased its digital transformation in the fashion industry through an innovative AI fashion show at the 2025 China Brand Night, highlighting the integration of technology and fashion [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation and AI Integration - Bosideng's AI model "BSD.AI Aesthetic Brain" demonstrated the complete process of creating a down jacket, from demand generation to design and rendering [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive clothing database by integrating decades of design and user research data with global fashion trends [5]. - The introduction of AI technology has significantly improved design efficiency, reducing sample development time from 100 days to 27 days [5]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Response - Bosideng launched various product lines, including the Summit Series and Extreme Cold Series, to meet diverse consumer needs while enhancing product value through technology [5]. - The Extreme Cold Down Jacket features a groundbreaking dynamic cold protection technology, achieving a milestone in the field of scientific research equipment [5]. Group 3: Sustainability and ESG Strategy - Bosideng is accelerating its green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for net-zero emissions in operational aspects by 2038 [6]. - The company has developed an intelligent manufacturing system, GiMS, utilizing digital technologies to enhance production efficiency and reduce carbon footprints [6]. - Bosideng's national-level intelligent manufacturing demonstration factory has achieved 100% coverage of energy consumption monitoring systems, continuously optimizing key performance indicators [6].

Core Points - The 2025 World Brand Moganshan Conference opened on May 10, focusing on the theme "Brands Make the World a Better Place" [1] - Bosideng Group was recognized in the Xinhua News Agency's brand project, marking significant progress in brand building and global communication [3][5] - Bosideng's brand value reached 107.582 billion yuan, ranking among the world's top 500 brands and consistently appearing in the top 50 most valuable apparel brands globally [7] Group 1: Brand Development and Innovation - Bosideng has consistently implemented a brand development strategy, enhancing its brand through continuous shaping, cultivation, and innovation [7] - The company integrates traditional craftsmanship with international fashion, showcasing its cultural confidence and professional strength on global platforms like New York Fashion Week and Milan [7] - Bosideng aims to align with national development, focusing on innovative paths to enhance brand influence and quality, contributing to market consumption and quality-driven national initiatives [7] Group 2: Technological Integration and Market Strategy - High-tech innovations are crucial for traditional industries to ascend to higher-end markets, with Bosideng focusing on high-quality supply to meet evolving consumer demands [9] - The company has launched various product lines, including the "Summit Series" and "Extreme Cold Series," which cater to diverse consumer needs and incorporate advanced technology [9] - Bosideng is expanding its global presence in the mid-to-high-end down jacket market, establishing a brand matrix with international influence [9] Group 3: Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - Bosideng's fashion show at the China Brand Night highlighted the integration of AI technology and sustainable fashion, showcasing the company's commitment to ESG principles [10][11] - The company aims to create a green factory and supply chain system, with its MSCI ESG rating projected to reach AA by 2025 [11] - Bosideng emphasizes the importance of both "hard technology" and "soft power" in building a truly global brand, reflecting its commitment to cultural confidence and technological strength [12]