投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 供应压力延续，矛盾持续积累 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 生猪：供应压力延续，矛盾持续积累 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 能繁母猪存栏仍高，生猪出栏量维持高位，出栏体重偏大，压栏与集团出栏博弈加剧。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 终端消费未明显放量，冻品库存上升，表观需求一般。 | | | 库存 | 偏多 | 屠企和冻品库容率均处于同期低位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | 继续保持contango结构，这个结构背景下，现货若仍无起色，传导至盘面或维持弱势。 | | | 利润 | 中性 | 自繁自养养殖利润连续亏损，价格已跌破盈亏线，养殖户无惜售动力，反而可能加速出栏。 | | | 估值 | 中性 | 目前期货 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日养殖业板块主力资金净流入3923.48万元，游资资金净流出1.08亿元，散户资金 净流入6924.65万元。养殖业板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.46 | 3.28% | 48.85万 | | 24.30亿 | | 605296 | 神农集团 | 28.50 | 3.04% | 3.51万 | | 1.00亿 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | 17.96 | 2.28% | 7.98万 | | 1.43亿 | | 300761 | 立华股份 | 20.44 | 2.25% | 1 11.32万 | | 2.34亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 2.93 | 2.09% | 118.87万 | | 3.49 Z | | 300498 | 温氏股份 | 17.71 | 2.02% | 50.11万 | | 8.87亿 | | 002982 | 湘佳股份 | 14.65 ...

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-104 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于股东部分股权解除质押的公告 一、股东部分股权解除质押的基本情况 股东名称 是否为控股股东 或第一大股东及 其一致行动人 本次解除质 押股份数量 占其所持 股份比例 占公司总股 本比例 起始日 解除日期 质权人 牧原集团 是 82,660,000 股 9.74% 1.51% 2024/8/1 2025/11/21 中信证券股份 有限公司 注：1、因公司"牧原转债"处于转股期，总股本持续变化，本公告中的股份比例按照 2025 年 11 月 21 日公司总股本 5,462,771,033 股计算。 2、因四舍五入，上述数据可能存在尾差。 三、其他说明 上述股东资信状况良好，具备良好的资金偿还能力，本次解除质押后，公司 实际控制人及其一致行动人的剩余质押股份不存在实质性资金偿还风险，所质押 的股份目前不存在平仓风险或被强制平仓的情形，质押风险可控。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整， ...

每经记者｜张蕊 每经编辑｜陈旭 3月5日，国务院联防联控机制就抓好春季农业生产工作情况召开新闻发布会。 对此农业农村部畜牧兽医局局长杨振海表示，在政策推动和市场拉动下，生猪生产已经连续恢复。据监测，能繁母猪存栏连续4个月恢复增长，累计比去年9 月份增长了8%，已基本实现了到去年底生猪生产止降回升的目标。 "尽管遭遇新冠肺炎疫情冲击等困难，各地都表示今年既定的任务目标不变，农业农村部也有信心实现全年生猪产能基本恢复到接近常年的水平。"杨振海表 示，下一步，农业农村部将采取多方面措施推进这项工作。 比如及时化解疫情给恢复生猪生产带来的不利影响，继续解决好饲料、屠宰、流通等企业复工复产面临的突出问题，畅通仔猪和种猪的调运，强化存栏肥猪 产销对接，保障生猪全产业链顺畅运行；会同财政部、银保监会加快出台贷款贴息等新政策的实施细则；加快生猪养殖场新建改扩建项目，推动尽快形成新 增产能等。 封面图片来源：新华社 发布会现场 每经记者 张蕊 摄 受新冠肺炎疫情影响，一些生猪生产物资运输受阻，新建改建猪场大多不能正常开工。当前生猪生产形势怎么样？下一步还将采取哪些针对性措施？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights the cyclical recovery in the livestock industry, emphasizing the valuation shift for leading companies in the sector [1] Livestock Industry - The domestic livestock cycle is expected to reverse, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets likely to experience upward momentum [1] - Official capacity regulation in the pig industry is anticipated to accelerate cash flow improvements for leading enterprises, potentially transforming them into dividend stocks as industry capacity contracts [1] - In the poultry sector, limited supply fluctuations are expected, with market conditions likely to improve alongside demand recovery, allowing leading companies to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns [1] Feed Industry - The deepening industrialization of livestock and poultry farming, along with clear industry segmentation, positions leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [1] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a scarce growth sector, expected to benefit from demographic changes [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include: - For livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu [1] - For pigs: Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Tiankang Biological, and Shennong Group [1] - For poultry: Lihua Stock, Yisheng Shares, and Shennong Development [1] - For feed: Haida Group [1] - For pets: Guibao Pet [1]

开源证券指出，展望2026年全年，食品饮料行业主线是底部回暖复苏，复苏节奏及力度与宏观经济相关 性较大。产业层面白酒企业已进入深度调整期，行业需求下行的结果已由终端经渠道传导至厂家，体现 为酒企公司报表业绩增速放缓。当前白酒板块已接近左侧布局区间，当前可逐步开展配置，优先选择业 绩出清或底部确认标的。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证主要消费指数前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台、五粮液、伊利股 份、牧原股份、泸州老窖、温氏股份、山西汾酒、海天味业、东鹏饮料、海大集团，前十大权重股合计 占比68.28%。 截至2025年11月24日 13:02，中证主要消费指数下跌0.16%。成分股方面涨跌互现，牧原股份领涨 2.61%，新诺威上涨1.65%，华熙生物上涨1.51%；梅花生物领跌，海南橡胶、中粮糖业跟跌。 展望后市，湘财证券表示，三季报收官，白酒持续出清，压力释放。目前板块估值分位数处于较低位 置，估值相对具有性价比，建议把握绩优股的alpha机遇。消费变革下，既要关注品类、渠道、消费场 景的创新机会，又要关注传统消费领域中积极求变及低估值的配置机会。 消费ETF嘉实(512600)跟踪中证主要消费指数，该 ...

Group 1 - The index opened high but retreated, with the ChiNext index turning negative [2] - Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) had a trading volume exceeding 10 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.59% [2] - Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a trading volume surpassing 35 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Tianhong Agricultural ETF closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agrochemicals, with key holdings including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2] - Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors, with top ten weighted stocks including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [2] - On November 10, Roniu Mountain announced a sales figure of 71,500 pigs for October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13.84% and a year-on-year increase of 57.90% [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce announced the results of competitive evaluations for pilot cities in new consumption formats, with a total of 50 cities listed [3] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the main investment logic driving the agricultural sector in 2026 will be cycles and growth [3] - The report suggests that due to market losses and administrative capacity reduction, there may be an accelerated capacity reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026, with pig prices expected to fluctuate upwards [3]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a significant rise in stock prices, particularly in the ETF that tracks this sector, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in the industry [1][4]. Market Performance - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) opened with a price increase of over 2% at one point, closing with a gain of 1.01% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, including Zhongshui Fishery and Kaichuang International, reached their daily limit, while Tiankang Biological and others saw increases of over 4% [1]. Industry Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting indicating stable development in livestock production, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million by the end of October [1]. - Huaxi Securities noted that pig prices are at low levels, close to industry cash costs, and that capacity reduction is exceeding expectations, suggesting potential for future price increases [1][3]. Price Trends - Current prices for fat pigs have dropped below 12 yuan per kilogram, and weaned piglet prices are around 200 yuan each, indicating that the industry is facing significant losses [3]. - Historical trends suggest that when prices are at such low levels, the industry is likely to undergo market-driven capacity reductions, which could lead to long-term price increases [3]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The agricultural and fishery sector may present a favorable investment opportunity, with the ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.54, which is relatively low compared to historical data [3]. - The ETF (159275) is noted for its high exposure to the pig farming sector, with a 40.25% allocation, making it a key vehicle for investors looking to capitalize on this market [5]. Future Outlook - Guoxin Securities predicts that the official capacity control will improve cash flow for leading companies, potentially transforming them into dividend-paying stocks [4]. - The poultry farming sector is expected to see limited supply fluctuations, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [4].

生猪产能去化加速，板块迎来配置机遇 20251123 目前生猪板块正处于新一轮的起点，进入了去产能的逻辑。自 2025 年 6 月以 来，行业逐步从政策炒作转向稳定发展，并在 10 月份加速了去产能进程。农 业农村部数据显示，10 月份能繁母猪存栏量已降至 4,000 万头以下，相比 9 月份下降了 0.9%。这一趋势表明行业正在加速去化。 2025 年下半年的猪价走势如何？ 2025 年下半年猪价持续低迷。尽管市场上曾有部分观点看好下半年猪价，但 我们一直持悲观态度。从数据来看，今年头部猪企出栏增速显著，全年出栏增 速达 20%，绝对值增加了 3,400 多万头。而去年（2024 年）仅为 5%左右， 增加约 800 万头。这种快速增长导致供给压力巨大，加之需求端未见显著变化， 10 月份能繁母猪数量加速下降，预计下降速度可能会维持在每月环比 0.9%至 1%左右，行业将逐步进入产能去化加速的阶段。市场情绪非常 悲观。 当前行业环境下，应选择成本低、具有扩张潜力、资产负债率低且现金 流强劲的公司作为投资标的。推荐牧原股份和温氏股份，小型企业如天 康、德康、神农、巨星和丽华也值得关注。年底是政策密集出台期，对 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，11月24日，猪肉板块盘初活跃，天康生物涨超5%，牧原股份、立华股份、巨星农牧、罗 牛山跟涨。 ...