Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a tightening supply trend, with a projected decrease in crude steel production and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards quality and structural improvements in production policies [1][2]. Supply Side - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China reached 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, with a reduction of 3.8 million tons compared to the same period in 2025 [1]. - The current round of regulatory policies emphasizes innovative capacity governance, focusing on quality and structure rather than merely eliminating ineffective capacity or controlling production levels [1]. Demand Side - By October 2025, China's cumulative steel exports amounted to approximately 110 million tons, an increase of 13.29 million tons year-on-year, with net steel exports accounting for about 13% of crude steel production, nearing the pre-reform high of 15% in 2015 [2]. - Although the demand for construction steel is still declining, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is approaching its bottom [2]. - Manufacturing steel demand is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and shipbuilding, along with increased demand from new infrastructure projects like wind power and photovoltaics [2]. Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline, with China's industrial structure upgrades leading to reduced steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this decline [3]. - In the first half of 2025, supply looseness has put downward pressure on coking coal prices, with price movements primarily driven by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3]. - The price of scrap steel is expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations, continuing to exert pressure on upstream and downstream profits [3]. Investment Recommendations - The combination of supply-side production controls and more proactive fiscal policies is likely to enhance sector valuations [4]. - Demand for construction steel is stabilizing, while manufacturing steel demand is showing positive trends, with exports shifting towards higher quality and indirect models [4]. - The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to increase the concentration of leading enterprises, with a necessary trend towards high-quality product development [4]. - Recommended companies include industry leaders with product structure advantages such as Baosteel (600019.SH), Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), as well as special steel companies with high barriers and added value like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ), Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), and Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995.SH) [4].

证券代码:002318 证券简称:久立特材 公告编号:2025-047 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 关于2025年第一期员工持股计划完成非交易过户的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2025 年 11 月 17 日、2025 年 12 月 5 日召开第七届董事会第十六次会议、2025 年第二次临 时股东会，审议通过了《关于<2025 年第一期员工持股计划（草案）>及其摘要 的议案》等相关议案，同意公司实施 2025 年第一期员工持股计划（以下简称"本 员工持股计划"）。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 11 月 19 日、2025 年 12 月 6 日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的相关公告。 根据《关于上市公司实施员工持股计划试点的指导意见》和《深圳证券交易 所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范运作》等相关规定，现将 本员工持股计划实施进展情况公告如下： 一、本员工持股计划的股票来源及数量 本员工持股计划的股票来源为公司回购专用证券账户回购的 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日特钢板块主力资金净流入1.23亿元，游资资金净流出732.13万元，散户资金净流 出1.15亿元。特钢板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月25日特钢板块较上一交易日上涨1.42%，抚顺特钢领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6682009 | 抚顺特钢 | 5.81 | 5.83% | 158.28万 | 9.14亿 | | 300881 | 盛德整泰 | 35.75 | 4.69% | 3.94万 | · 1.39亿 | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 8.82 | 2.92% | 57.51万 | 5.06亿 | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 28.11 | 2.59% | 17.14万 | 4.79亿 | | 600117 | 西宁特钢 | 2.86 | 1.78% | 32.03万 | 9168.24万 ...

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Company Performance - Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price reached a historical high, increasing by 2.52% to 28.09 yuan, with a trading volume of 7.6239 million shares and a transaction value of 211 million yuan [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 9.747 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.45%, and a net profit of 1.262 billion yuan, up 20.73% year-on-year [2] - The basic earnings per share were 1.3300 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 15.95% [2] Industry Overview - The steel industry, to which Jiu Li Special Materials belongs, experienced an overall increase of 0.07%, with 25 stocks rising, including notable gains from Fushun Special Steel and Changbao Co., Ltd. [2] - Among the stocks that declined, major losses were seen in Da Zhong Mining, Hainan Mining, and Shougang Co., Ltd. [2] Financing Data - As of December 24, the margin trading balance for Jiu Li Special Materials was 343 million yuan, with a financing balance of 335 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.566 million yuan over the past 10 days, a decline of 3.89% [2]

Group 1 - The special steel sector increased by 1.1% on December 24, with Fushun Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3940.95, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42, up 0.88% [1] - Key stocks in the special steel sector showed various increases, with Fushun Special Steel at 5.49 (up 2.43%) and Taiyuan Iron & Steel at 5.08 (up 2.01%) [1] Group 2 - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 84.90 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 85.13 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Taiyuan Iron & Steel was 1.57 million shares, with a transaction value of 793 million yuan [2] - Fushun Special Steel had a main fund net inflow of 40.57 million yuan, representing 10.32% of its trading volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 22.71% and a market capitalization of 26.941 billion yuan as of December 24 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Activity - On December 24, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock rose by 2.07%, reaching 27.57 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 267 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.03% [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 12.506 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 30.64% of purchases and 28.40% of sales [1] - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 3.84%, while it has risen by 12.85% over the past 20 days and 24.02% over the past 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 9.747 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.262 billion yuan, up 20.73% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 34.16% to 27,600, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 25.46% to 34,604 shares [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 23.6468 million shares, a decrease of 20.9903 million shares from the previous period [3] - New shareholders include Southern CSI 500 ETF and Dacheng Rui Xiang Mixed A, while Fu Guo Xing Yuan and Guangfa Stable Growth Mixed A have exited the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

证券之星消息，12月23日特钢板块较上一交易日下跌0.99%，太钢不锈领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3919.98，上涨0.07%。深证成指报收于13368.99，上涨0.27%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 8.41 | 0.48% | 37.50万 | 3.14亿 | | 301160 | 翔楼新材 | 64.79 | 0.43% | 1.05万 | 6775.58万 | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 27.01 | 0.37% | 13.38万 | 3.60亿 | | 002443 | 金洲管道 | 8.51 | 0.12% | 15.03万 | 1.28亿 | | 000708 | 中信特钢 | 15.72 | -0.19% | 10.29万 | 1.61亿 | | 002075 | 沙钢股份 | 5.66 | -0.53% | 23.37万 | 1.33亿 | | 600507 | 方大特钢 | 5.75 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 回顾反内卷政策，2026 年钢铁分级管理怎么走？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2025 年，反内卷无疑是钢铁行业最受关注的交易主线。作为低价内卷的典型行业，也是 过往供改的重点行业，市场期待随着反内卷的渐进深化，钢铁的供给侧具有出清的预期。尽管 2025 年暂未看到反内卷的具体举措落地，但通过对重点政策的系统性梳理，可以清晰地理出 "分级管理、扶优劣汰"的调控思路。随着 2026 年政策抓手和配套政策的进一步完善，行业 有望迎来供给侧出清的机遇。考虑到近年来产量压减政策的延续性和"扶优劣汰"的思路，不 规范企业或具有更大的产量压减幅度，从而具有市场化出清的预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...