截至9：36，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨1.21%，成分股中，万华化学涨2.04%，中国石油涨 1.92%，中国石化涨0.94%，盐湖股份跌0.28%，中国海油涨3.97%，藏格矿业跌2.01%，巨化股份涨 0.75%，恒力石化涨1.67%，华鲁恒升涨1.42%，宝丰能源涨2.7%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 受席卷全美的冬季风暴影响，美国能源基础设施和电网承压。机构预测，上周末期间美国原油生产商的 日产量减少至多200万桶，约占全国原油总产量的15%。此外，美国寒潮进一步引发市场对乙二醇供应 担忧。 相关产品： 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）覆盖"三桶油"，一键打包化工产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅 0.2%/年，助力投资者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 国金证券认为，化工板块或将重估，一是供给端的政策指引可能使得供给端的天花板更加明晰，产业地 位方面， ...

机构指出，在25年12月底到1月初，确实是预期化工企业盈利改善，到1月27日，化工企业实时的利润已 经发生很大的变化。比如烟煤价格从去年11月份820跌到现在700。宝丰能源一年化工用煤2800万吨，华 鲁用煤近1000万吨，煤价跌120，成本端改善分别是30、10亿以上。这还是化工品是淡季，价格还没怎 么涨的情况下。 此前调整的化工板块今日强势反弹，消息面上，1月化工股持续上涨，化工品价格涨幅有限，市场担忧 股价涨幅过于领先。 炼化企业利润改善更夸张，从去年11月到现在人民币相比美元升值了3%。按照一年2000万吨的原油采 购来算，65美元/桶，采购成本降低了近20亿人民币。如果在算配套的1000万吨煤炭消耗，2000万吨炼 厂光能源就改善了近30亿。这还是产品价格没涨的情况，没算下降的气价，油价，电价。化工企业只要 正常点，经营已经大幅度改善了，股价上涨很正常。 原料PPI同比大幅回落，产品PPI转正，价差同比大幅改善，化工股真正的弹性才出来。25年1、2、3月 布伦特油价为78、74、71美元，长丝POY价格分别为7215、7288、7070元。现在油价66美元，长丝POY 价格为6800元，如果后续2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing an increase, and significant inflows into the Petrochemical ETF, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the China Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 0.54%, with key stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng hitting the daily limit up, and others such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Hubei Biopharma also seeing gains [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 0.39%, with a turnover rate of 4.34% during the trading session [1]. - Over the past 15 days, the Petrochemical ETF has attracted a total net inflow of 745 million yuan, reaching a record high of 1.018 billion shares and a total size of 1.045 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 62.39% over the past two years [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 8 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 41.60% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months was 5.25%, and the ETF outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.35% over the past year [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates that a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is evident, with the concept of "anti-involution" suggesting improved profitability and healthier long-term development for the industry [1]. - The chemical industry is entering a strategic window, characterized by the exit of high-cost marginal capacity overseas and a restructuring of the global chemical order [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical among others [2].

Core Insights - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with the current low valuation presenting potential investment opportunities. The industry is expected to recover from its profitability bottom due to measures like "anti-involution" and the rapid growth of new materials driven by downstream demand [2][3][8]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry experienced a low point in 2025, with the PPI for industrial products, production materials, and chemical industries showing negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth in history [16]. - As of the end of 2025, 30 out of 111 tracked chemical products had prices in the bottom 10% of their historical range, indicating significant pricing pressure [18]. Supply Dynamics - The construction of new projects in the chemical sector has seen a negative year-on-year growth rate, signaling that the current round of capacity expansion is nearing its end. By Q3 2025, the total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion RMB, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate of ongoing projects turned negative for the first time in nearly four years [16][18]. Demand Trends - Domestic demand in the real estate sector is under pressure, but sectors like automotive and chemical fibers are showing positive growth. The demand for related products is expected to continue improving, supported by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy and AI [16][18]. Cost Factors - The global oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with international oil prices projected to stabilize within a range of 50-70 USD per barrel. This could lead to a gradual recovery in oil prices, although geopolitical events may introduce volatility [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the SW basic chemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 29.45, placing it at the 41.85% percentile since 2002, indicating a low valuation environment. The oil and petrochemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 14.08, at the 12.49% percentile [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional chemical leaders that are expanding into new materials, as they are expected to see both performance and valuation improvements. Recommended companies include WanHua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [2][3][8]. - Attention is also drawn to sub-industries benefiting from "anti-involution" measures, such as refining, polyester, and organic silicon, where price levels are low and supply dynamics are improving [2][3][8].

请珍惜手中的化工股票筹码，化工景气度修复真的才刚刚开始！ 1、1月份化工股持续上涨，化工品价格没怎么涨，股价又涨了，是不是太领先了？ 在25年12月底到1月初，确实是预期化工企业盈利改善，到1月27日，化工企业实时的利润已经发生很大的变化。 比如烟煤价格从去年11月份820跌到现在700。 宝丰能源一年化工用煤2800万吨，华鲁用煤近1000万吨，煤价跌120，成本端改善分别是30、10亿以上。 关键这还是化工品是淡季，价格还没怎么涨的情况下。 炼化企业利润改善更夸张，从去年11月到现在人民币相比美元升值了3%。 今天化工板块略有调整，市场对这个位子的化工比较犹豫，其实才刚刚开始，统一回复大家关注度高的两个问 题： 1、1月份化工股持续上涨，化工品价格没怎么涨，股价又涨了，是不是太领先了？ 在25年12月底到1月初，确实是预期化工企业盈利改善，到1月27日，化工企业实时的利润已经发生很大的变化。 比如烟煤价格从去年11月 请珍惜手中的化工股票筹码，化工景气度修复真的才刚刚开始！ 今天化工板块略有调整，市场对这个位子的化工比较犹豫，其实才刚刚开始，统一回复大家关注度高的两个问 题： 如果在算配套的1000万吨煤 ...

2025Q4 化工行业基金持仓分析 化工持仓触底反弹，龙头配置价值凸显 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 许隽逸 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590524060003 | | | 邮箱： | xujy@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张玮航 | | 执业证书： S0590524090003 | | | 邮箱： | whzhang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 陈律楼 | | 执业证书： S0590524080002 | | | 邮箱： | llchen@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 刘天其 | | 执业证书： S0590525120013 | | | 邮箱： | liutianqi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 黄楷 | | 执业证书： S0590522090001 | | | 邮箱： | huangk@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 赵嘉卉 | | 执业证书： S0590525080001 | | | 邮箱： | jhzhao@ ...

化工板块今日（1月27日）深度回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后迅速走弱， 而后持续低位震荡，盘中场内价格一度跌超2%，截至收盘，跌1.62%。 成份股方面，氟化工、锂电、氮肥等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至收盘，多氟多、藏格矿业双双大跌超 5%，天赐材料跌4.17%，恩捷股份、星源材质、华鲁恒升等多股跌超3%，拖累板块走势。 值得注意的是，化工板块近期持续受资金青睐。交易所数据显示，截至昨日，化工ETF（516020）近5 日获资金净申购额超过13亿元；近10日获资金净申购额更是接近20亿元。 消息面上，1月27日，碳酸锂期货盘初延续颓势，主力合约跌幅一度超过7%。有分析指出，短期由于前 期锂价预期交易过于充分，价格上涨过快，监管不断加强后，或有回调的风险。由于供应端国内供应面 临合规风险，海外供应仍旧面临资源民族主义与地缘政治的风险，为在锂电需求高增长带动碳酸锂供需 反转的叙事证伪前，碳酸锂价格中枢或仍旧维持上升趋势。 就化工板块整体而言，有分析认为，最近一阵化工板块表现亮丽，反映了市场对后续景气的期待。基本 面没有大的变化。个别公司受到国外负面情绪影响，实际并不会有直接影响，未来也 ...

Group 1 - The global chemical industry is transitioning from "overcapacity" to "high-quality supply" by 2026, driven by national growth policies, marginal recovery in overseas demand, and the initiation of a restocking cycle, leading to a stabilization and rebound in the prices of basic chemicals and a significant improvement in industry profit expectations [1][3]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has become a core tool for investors to capitalize on the petrochemical industry's recovery, with the index it tracks rising by 15.10% in the past month and 51.39% over the past year as of January 26, 2026 [1][5]. - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with over 180 million yuan in net inflows in the past five days and over 270 million yuan in the past twenty days [1][5]. Group 2 - The "High-Quality Development" policy framework has been established, emphasizing the control of new refining capacities and the scientific regulation of ethylene and paraxylene production, marking a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality and efficiency improvements [3][4]. - A global restocking cycle has commenced, with widespread price increases for chemical products, including a 550 yuan/ton increase for butadiene and a 100 yuan/ton increase for bisphenol A, alongside sulfur prices reaching near ten-year highs [3][4]. - Major international companies like BASF and Dow have also raised prices for MDI/TDI, indicating a strong performance in the polyurethane market, supported by increased global oil demand projected at 950,000 barrels per day for 2026 [4][5]. Group 3 - Chemical companies are expected to report positive earnings, with Salt Lake Co. forecasting a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65%, and other companies like Juhua Co. and Cangge Mining also projecting significant profit increases [5][6]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with top holdings including major companies like Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum, covering over 56% of the index, thus providing a balanced exposure to both energy security and growth in new materials [5][6]. - The ETF has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20% per year, making it an ideal tool for participating in the current economic upturn in the chemical sector [5][6].

Price Trends - The latest price of adipic acid as of January 26 is 7633.33 yuan per ton, reflecting a recent increase of 3.15% over the last 5 days [2][4] - Over the past 30 days, the price has risen by 11.71% [2][4] - In the last 60 days, the price has increased by 13.37% [2][4] Related Producers - Key producers in the adipic acid market include Huafeng Chemical (002064), Hualu Hengsheng (600426), Yangmei Chemical (600691), Shennong Co. (600810), and Kailuan Co. (600997) [2][4]

数据显示，红塔红土基金旗下1只基金重仓华鲁恒升。红塔红土稳健精选混合型A（009817）四季度持 有股数1.17万股，占基金净值比例为2.5%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约2.23万元。 红塔红土稳健精选混合型A（009817）成立日期2020年10月16日，最新规模738.58万。今年以来收益 1.7%，同类排名7016/8861；近一年收益12.24%，同类排名6168/8126；成立以来收益20.84%。 1月27日，华鲁恒升跌5.03%，截至发稿，报36.08元/股，成交9.35亿元，换手率1.19%，总市值766.06亿 元。 红塔红土稳健精选混合型A（009817）基金经理为杨兴风。 资料显示，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司位于山东省德州市天衢西路24号，成立日期2000年4月26 日，上市日期2002年6月20日，公司主营业务涉及尿素、甲醇的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：新 能源新材料相关产品48.34%，化学肥料24.61%，醋酸及衍生品10.82%，其他产品7.75%，有机胺 7.33%，副产品及其他1.15%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第 ...