Group 1 - The company has confirmed that both its under-construction and operational coal power projects are capable of deep peak regulation, with the ability to operate at a minimum capacity of 20% to 30% [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the coal industry is entering a new cycle with a significant increase in value, driven by supply-demand restructuring and improved market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Cycle Review - The coal price center has significantly increased during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in a new cycle [4][15]. - The report reviews four cycles of the coal industry, highlighting that the current cycle may see a recovery from the bottom in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal reached 718 RMB/ton in the second half of 2025, reflecting a 6% increase compared to the first half [20][21]. Group 2: Supply Restructuring - Coal production from 2020 to 2024 increased by 23% to 4.78 billion tons, but growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, with production growth in Xinjiang only at 2.6% [4][33]. - The report anticipates that coal production will enter a peak and decline phase, with growth rates expected to be between 0.5% and 1.0% from 2026 to 2028 [4][33]. - Regulatory policies are expected to impact coal production, potentially leading to negative growth in certain periods [4][33]. Group 3: Demand Restructuring - The demand for coal is expected to maintain resilience, with electricity consumption projected to grow at around 5% over the next five years, driven by new manufacturing and increased electrification [4][33]. - The report notes that while coal consumption is expected to decline in the short term due to electricity demand pressures, it is likely to recover as macroeconomic policies strengthen in 2026 [4][33]. - Chemical demand is projected to grow at approximately 5%, while declines in steel and construction materials are expected to narrow [4][33]. Group 4: Global and Commodity Perspectives - The report highlights that global coal production is expected to decline, while Southeast Asian demand is projected to grow by 3-5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][33]. - Compared to other commodities, coal has shown weaker performance, with the copper-coal ratio and gold-coal ratio at historical highs [4][33]. - The coal industry's share of industrial profits has dropped to historical lows, while the electricity sector's profit share has reached a high of 10% [4][33]. Group 5: Overall Viewpoint - The report concludes that the coal price center is expected to rise to around 750 RMB/ton in 2026, with leading companies offering dividend yields of 4-6% [4][33]. - Key companies identified include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain stable profitability [4][33]. - The report emphasizes that after a pessimistic outlook on coal prices is reversed, valuation elasticity is likely to become apparent [4][33].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes a development strategy focused on "improving existing operations and transforming new growth" while adhering to a stable and progressive work approach, aiming to enhance long-term investment value for shareholders [1] Group 1: Development Strategy - The company will follow the "existing stock efficiency and new growth transformation" strategy [1] - The company aims to strengthen safety and efficient management in operations [1] - The company is committed to building a comprehensive energy supply system that integrates "coal, coal power, and new energy" [1] Group 2: Operational Focus - The company intends to improve operational management levels and enhance risk management capabilities [1] - The company is focused on high-quality development to increase long-term investment value [1] - The company aims to reward investors through its strategic initiatives [1]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月29日，新集能源在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，容量电价是按机组容量按月支 付的固定费用，与电价分开计算的。11月份公司商品煤煤质约4600卡/克。 ...

证券日报网讯12月29日，新集能源（601918）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月19日 公司股东户数约为8.5万户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a decline in capacity utilization for both thermal and coking coal, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Utilization - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port (Q5500) are reported at 677 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - The price of thermal coal in Shanxi (Q6000) is 765 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.0 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - International thermal coal prices have also seen declines, with Newcastle (NEWC5500) at 74.0 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Demand and Consumption - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 11.30 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.53% week-on-week [4]. - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 20.90 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.56% week-on-week [4]. - Chemical coal consumption has decreased by 2.57 thousand tons/day, down 0.35% week-on-week [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current phase is viewed as the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a recommendation for low-cost allocation in the coal sector [5]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a weak operational trend due to high port inventories and above-average temperatures [5]. - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with expectations for price stabilization and potential valuation increases [6][7]. Group 5: Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [7]. - Attention should also be given to high-quality metallurgical coal companies due to their unique resource scarcity [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the coal industry [6]. Core Insights - The coal pricing policy in China has shifted from administrative price stabilization to market-oriented flexible regulation from 2022 to 2025, with a focus on optimizing supply structure and enhancing cost support [1][17]. - The complete cost of coal enterprises in major production areas provides a bottom support for port prices, with the support level estimated at approximately 574 RMB/ton for Shanxi and Shaanxi regions [2][30]. - The coal industry is expected to maintain its role as a cornerstone of China's energy system, with supply constraints and gradual energy structure transformation supporting a high price level for coal [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The shift in coal pricing policy aims to stabilize energy supply while ensuring reasonable profits for coal and electricity sectors [1]. - The complete cost structure of coal enterprises includes production costs, period expenses, and taxes, with a focus on maintaining energy security and sustainable development [21]. 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91% from December 13 to December 26, while the coal index fell by 0.35%, underperforming the overall market [3][32]. 3. Market Information Tracking - As of December 24, 2025, the average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was reported at 695 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 8 RMB/ton from December 10, 2025 [4]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was reported at 1740 RMB/ton, an increase of 110 RMB/ton from December 12, 2025 [9]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to enhance the clean and efficient utilization of coal, encouraging upgrades and improvements in coal projects [10]. - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference emphasized the importance of policy support in addressing development challenges within the energy sector [10]. 5. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios for stable profits, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11]. - It also highlights cyclical stocks like Yanzhou Coal and Jinkong Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy as potential investment opportunities [11].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [7]. Core Insights - The coal price has continued to decline, with a significant drop of 144 CNY/ton from mid-November to the present, primarily due to lower-than-expected thermal power generation [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for either a significant drop in temperature or policy intervention to stabilize coal prices, as current market conditions show a complete inversion between spot and long-term contract prices [3][10]. - The report highlights that the coal mining sector is experiencing a supply tightening as many mines complete their annual production tasks, leading to a decrease in production capacity utilization [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.89%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.84 percentage points, ranking 28th among CITIC sectors [1][76]. - The average daily coal production reached a new high of 14.23 million tons in November, aligning with seasonal expectations [1]. Thermal Coal - The report notes that thermal coal prices have continued to decline, with a focus on marginal recovery in daily consumption [10]. - The report indicates that the market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with high-quality coal mines showing slight improvements in sales, but overall demand remains weak [13][38]. - As of December 26, the spot price for thermal coal was reported at 687 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 33 CNY/ton [33]. Coking Coal - The report states that coking coal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with some high-quality resources seeing improved sales while others continue to decline [38]. - The overall demand for coking coal remains limited, with downstream industries cautious in their purchasing decisions [43]. - As of December 26, the average profit per ton of coking coal has turned negative, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, based on their performance and market positioning [9]. - The focus is also on companies that are innovating in smart mining technologies, such as Keda Control [9]. Industry News - Recent developments include the launch of a major coal transportation base in Gansu and the commissioning of new power generation units, which are expected to impact coal demand positively [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [2][3][11] - The underlying logic of coal supply constraints since July still exists, and there's no need to overly worry about a significant decline in coal prices. The stabilization point of coal prices is approaching [2][3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. Coal prices have established a bottom and are on a new platform, high - quality coal enterprises maintain core asset attributes, and coal assets are relatively undervalued with potential for overall valuation improvement [3][11] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan". The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, with high certainty in the profitability and growth of high - quality coal companies [3][12] - The coal sector has a high - dividend safety margin when it adjusts downward and upward elasticity catalyzed by the expected increase in coal prices. It is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities in the coal sector [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: The coal economy is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. This week, the utilization rate of sample thermal coal and coking coal mine production capacity decreased. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces increased, while non - power coal demand decreased. Coal prices showed a mixed trend. Although the current market is weak, after New Year's Day, the coal consumption support is expected to strengthen. The coal allocation logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate at low levels [11] - **Key Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three types of companies: those with stable operations and performance, those that have fallen sharply previously with high elasticity, and those with special and scarce global metallurgical coal resources. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Recent Key Concerns**: In November 2025, the total social electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, US coal production increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and Russian coal production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.89% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.24 [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 1.24%, 0.81%, and 0.49% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (6.42%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (5.01%), and Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. (2.75%) [19] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of December 26, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of December 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 677 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton week - on - week. At the production sites, prices in some areas rose or remained flat. International thermal coal FOB prices and some arrival prices fell [27] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of December 26, port and some production - site coking coal prices remained flat, while the arrival price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China rose 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week [29] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: As of December 26, the vehicle - board price of Jiaozuo anthracite remained flat, while the vehicle - board prices of some pulverized coal injection decreased [38] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of December 26, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal increased week - on - week [41] - **Coal - fired Power Daily Consumption and Inventory**: In both inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces, coal inventory increased, daily consumption increased, and the number of available days decreased [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of December 26, the Myspic composite steel price index fell, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke fell, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises decreased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of December 26, the prices of some chemical products showed different trends, the national cement price index fell, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased [68][70] 3.5 Coal Inventory Status - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased, the 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased, and the production - site inventory increased [82] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the production - site, port, coking enterprise, and steel mill coking coal inventories all increased [83] - **Coke Inventory**: As of December 26, the total coke inventory of coking plants decreased, the four - port total coke inventory increased, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills increased [85] 3.6 Coal Transportation Status - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell. As of December 25, the average daily coal shipment volume on the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased week - on - week [98] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio at Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of December 26, the inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Rim decreased, the number of anchored ships remained unchanged, and the cargo - to - ship ratio decreased [96] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of December 26, the Three Gorges outbound flow increased by 0.31% week - on - week [103] - In the next 10 days (December 28, 2025 - January 6, 2026), precipitation in some areas will be higher than normal, and after January 1, the average temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will turn 1 - 2°C lower than normal [103] - In the next 11 - 14 days (January 7 - 10, 2026), precipitation and temperature in different regions will show different trends [103] 3.8 Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The report provides the valuation data of key listed companies, including net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE from 2024A to 2027E [104] - **Key Announcements**: There are announcements from multiple companies, such as the share transfer of Jizhong Energy, the completion of the shareholding increase plan of Panjiang Co., Ltd., the acceptance of the application for asset acquisition by Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd., the guarantee provided by Kailuan Co., Ltd., and the maintenance of the credit rating of Meijin Energy [105][106][107] 3.9 This Week's Key Industry News - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 [109] - In November 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, with thermal coal imports increasing by 7.0% month - on - month and coking coal imports increasing by 1.3% month - on - month [109] - 8000 tons of high - quality Mongolian coal arrived in Gannan [109] - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 17.1% year - on - year [109]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the port thermal coal spot price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 672 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 1.6071 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 1.83% from the previous week. Meanwhile, the average daily outflow has increased by 64,600 tons or 4.22% to 1.5963 million tons. The inventory at the ports has risen to 29.872 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons or 0.74% from the previous week. The overall inventory trend is upward, with limited demand release leading to a decline in coal prices [1][2][27][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,963.68 points, up 46 points or 1.18% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,772.29 points, down 29 points or 1.03% with a trading volume of 37.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.6 billion CNY or 13% from the previous week [10]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of December 26, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong remained stable at 550 CNY/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia was stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou increased by 130 CNY/ton to 1,110 CNY/ton. The port thermal coal price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton to 672 CNY/ton [16][19]. 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while the outflow has increased. The average daily outflow is 1.5963 million tons, up 4.22%, and the average daily inflow is 1.6071 million tons, down 1.83%. The total inventory at the ports has increased to 29.872 million tons, up 0.74% [27][32]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and maintaining positive growth in premium income, with a preference for resource stocks. It recommends specific thermal coal stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and elastic performance [2][37].