因此，华福证券认为，中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核 心，长期配置价值不改。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月24日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨3.29%报5247.90美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨6.87%报88.00美元/盎司。 东吴证券也认为，中长期来看，"去美元化"叙事仍难以证伪，黄金依然处于上行区间；同时，美国关税收入预期落空 引发了市场对美国财政赤字的担忧，四季度GDP增速显著低于市场预期，滞胀预期升温下，贵金属为代表的抗通胀品 种受益。 华福证券近日发布研报指出，美国一系列宏观经济数据发布，就业数据韧性及美联储官员一系列偏鹰派言论削弱市场 降息预期，市场主流对首次降息预期从此前6月延后至7月；但美国非农数据的亮眼表现难掩其经济结构脆弱性本质， 市场更倾向于其为美联储为后续政策保留空间的预期管理手段，且由于近年来相关数据的大幅下修的失真表现，市场 对实际就业市场情况存在分歧。 ...

超50万亿定期存款将到期，谁将承接这"泼天的财富"?券商自然不会放过任何一次增收机会。在行业近 期密集召开年度经营部署会期间，智通财经就了解到，不少券商财富管理条线就谈到了2026年如何应对 存款到期潮带来的机遇，目前券商在加速推出应对方案。 "我们今年开经营会的时候就讨论了这个，要怎么能获得一些增量的收入。"一位分管财富管理业务的券 商副总裁在受访时提到。不少券商更是表示2025年就预判大量到期资金在利率下行背景下将引发一场大 规模的"存款搬家"，所以一进入2026年就着手搭建应对方案了。 市场机构较多预测居民定期存款规模将达到50万亿元以上，且存在重新配置需求，这一部分或将流到黄 金、基金、股市、保险等。这一迁移体量下，券商有共识，打法却又不一样。综合智通财经调研的情 况，让行业在承接50万亿定存到期资金时，形成了多元化、专业化的服务体系。 其中包括以固收 + 为核心构建分层级、全场景的稳健型产品矩阵，搭配类存款替代工具与创新品类精 准适配不同资金配置需求；联动银行、保险等多机构构建大财富生态，部分券商聚焦核心区域深耕细分 客群打造差异化竞争优势等。 打法一：固收+成核心承接抓手 固收+成为核心承接抓手， ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is intensifying competition in research services during the Spring Festival, with a significant number of phone conferences and strategy meetings being held to capture market share and enhance performance amidst declining research income [1][11][12]. Group 1: Phone Conferences - From February 16 to 23, a total of 292 phone conferences will be held by brokerage research teams, averaging over 32 per day, including 7 on New Year's Eve and 10 on the first day of the New Year [1]. - A total of 176 sell-side roadshow meetings are scheduled, with 108 occurring during the Spring Festival period [3]. - Notably, West Securities will host a series of phone conferences covering various topics, including a special session on AI products and industries on February 16 [5]. Group 2: Spring Strategy Meetings - Seven brokerages have confirmed their Spring Strategy Meetings, with themes reflecting optimism about the capital market, such as "New Growth Opportunities" and "Upgrades and Breakthroughs" [12][14][15]. - The meetings are scheduled to take place in various locations, with a concentration in Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating a strategic focus on key financial hubs [13]. - The themes of the strategy meetings are generally positive, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming market conditions [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition for research market share is intensifying, particularly among mid-sized brokerages, as they seek to enhance their research capabilities and client resources [11]. - The ongoing fee reduction reforms in public funds are impacting brokerage research income, with a reported 33.98% year-on-year decline in commission income for the first half of 2025 [11]. - The industry is expected to see increased concentration as some smaller firms exit the market, while larger firms maintain strategic investments in research services [11].

Core Insights - The sell-side research sector is intensifying efforts to boost performance during the Chinese New Year, with a significant number of conference calls scheduled, including 292 calls from February 16 to 23, averaging over 32 calls per day [1][2] - The spring strategy meetings are also being held earlier and more densely than in previous years, with seven brokerages confirmed to host events, indicating a competitive landscape for research market share [2][11] Conference Calls and Meetings - A total of 176 sell-side roadshow meetings are planned, with 108 occurring during the Chinese New Year holiday from February 15 to 23, involving over 13 brokerages [3][4] - Notable brokerages participating include Pacific Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities, with a focus on various industries such as food and beverage, real estate, and technology [3][7] Spring Strategy Meetings - The spring strategy meetings are characterized by early initiation and dense scheduling, with the first meeting held by Huafu Securities on February 3, 2026 [11][12] - The themes of these meetings reflect a positive outlook for the capital market, with keywords like "new," "breakthrough," and "upgrade" being prevalent [12][13] - Brokerages are also expanding their geographical reach, with events planned in locations beyond traditional financial hubs, indicating a shift in focus towards emerging economic regions [12] Competitive Landscape - The competition among brokerages for research market share is intensifying, driven by pressures on research income due to ongoing reforms in public fund fees [10][11] - Medium-sized brokerages are particularly focused on enhancing their research capabilities to capture market share, while larger firms maintain strategic investments in research to support both external and internal functions [10]

Group 1 - Western Securities launched an online service from February 16 to 23, featuring 15 conference calls, with a focus on the AI industry, which gained significant attention during the holiday period [1] - Over 100 brokerage roadshows were scheduled during the Spring Festival, with more than 20 online roadshows from February 16 to 18 and over 80 roadshows from February 19 to 23, indicating a strong demand for research services [3] - Smaller brokerages have become the main players in holiday roadshows, using differentiated competition strategies to effectively reach target clients and meet the research needs of institutions holding stocks during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The surge in holiday roadshows is attributed to increased competition in the sell-side research industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees for public funds, with brokerage commission income declining significantly [4] - In the first half of 2025, total brokerage commission income fell by 33.98% year-on-year, with Western Securities experiencing a decline of over 20% and other firms like Open Source Securities seeing declines exceeding 40% [4] - Future industry developments suggest that large comprehensive brokerages will continue strategic investments in research, while medium-sized brokerages will intensify competition to offset the impact of declining fees [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the intense competition among securities firms during the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, with some firms scheduling numerous roadshows despite the holiday period [1][2][5] - A specific securities firm, Western Securities, has planned a full schedule of roadshows from the evening of New Year's Eve to the end of the holiday, indicating a trend of "internal competition" within the industry [5][17] - Another firm, Kaiyuan Securities, is also actively participating with two to three roadshows daily from the first day of the new year, although they provided a break for analysts on New Year's Eve [19][21] Group 2 - Financial performance data reveals that Western Securities achieved a revenue of 4.335 billion with a year-on-year decline of 2.17%, while profits increased by 70.63% to 1.243 billion [9][21] - However, the research department's income has been on a continuous decline over the past four years, dropping from over 100 million in mid-2022 to only 27.14 million in mid-2025, reflecting issues such as salary cuts, layoffs, and analyst turnover [9][21] - Kaiyuan Securities has also seen a significant drop in research income, with mid-2025 figures falling to less than 60 million, nearly halving compared to previous years [11][23]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector is advancing steadily, and despite a recent pullback in the military ETF, there are potential investment opportunities in various segments of the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Strong transportation capacity is a strategic focal point for major powers, indicating a competitive landscape in commercial aerospace [1] - Various investment directions in commercial aerospace, including domestic rocket industry chains, overseas SpaceX chains, and space photovoltaic industry chains, are entering a phase of authenticity and should focus on industry trends [1] - The gap in rocket quantity is establishing a logic of inflation, with rocket companies increasing production capacity through public listings and financing [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The acceleration of China's satellite constellation plan is accompanied by the emergence of new technologies, such as flexible solar wings, flexible gallium arsenide battery cells, perovskite batteries, laser communication, and low-cost commercial satellites [1] - These technological advancements are entering a rapid development phase, indicating a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective solutions in the industry [1] Group 3: Market Potential - Future breakthroughs in commercial aerospace transportation capacity and a continuous reduction in launch costs suggest that the space photovoltaic market, valued in trillions, may not be far off [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which includes publicly listed companies related to the military sector, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) plans to publicly issue technology innovation corporate bonds to professional institutional investors in mainland China, with a total issuance amount not exceeding 5 billion RMB, aimed at project construction, working capital supplementation, and repayment of interest-bearing liabilities [2][12]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Issuer: CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. [3] - Bond Name: "CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. 2026 Public Issuance of Technology Innovation Corporate Bonds (First Phase)" with the short name "26CATLK1" [3][13]. - Issuance Scale: The bond issuance scale is not exceeding 5 billion RMB (including 5 billion RMB) [4][14]. - Bond Term: The bond has a term of 5 years, with an issuer's option to adjust the coupon rate at the end of the third year and an investor's put option [4][14]. - Face Value: The bond has a face value of 100 RMB [5][15]. - Issuance Price: The bond will be issued at par value [6][16]. Group 2: Bond Characteristics - Credit Enhancement: The bond is unsecured [7][17]. - Bond Form: The bond is a registered book-entry corporate bond, with custody recorded in accounts opened at the securities registration agency [7][17]. - Interest Rate: The bond will have a fixed interest rate determined through offline inquiry and book-building, with annual simple interest calculation [7][17]. - Interest Rate Adjustment: The interest rate will remain fixed for the first three years; if the issuer exercises the adjustment option, the rate for the remaining two years will be adjusted based on the previous rate plus or minus a certain basis point [7][17]. Group 3: Issuance Process - Issuance Method: The bond will be issued through offline inquiries to professional institutional investors, with allocation based on book-building results [7][17]. - Target Investors: The bond is aimed at professional institutional investors with A-share accounts opened at the Shenzhen branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, excluding those prohibited by law [7][17]. - Underwriting Method: The bond will be underwritten by the lead underwriter on a balance underwriting basis [8][18].

截至2月9日13：20，石化ETF（159731）涨0.69%，持仓股浙江龙盛、彤程新材、华峰化学涨幅居前。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计14.47亿元，最新份额达 17.30亿份，最新规模达17.48亿元，均创成立以来新高。 据国家发展改革委2月5日消息，为保障2026年春耕及全年农业生产用肥需求，国家发展改革委近日发布 通知，从保障化肥生产原料供应，稳定化肥生产；促进化肥顺畅流通；加强化肥储备管理；加强化肥进 出口服务管理；加强化肥市场监管；推进科学施肥等六方面，全面部署做好2026年春耕及全年化肥保供 稳价工作。 光大证券认为确保国家粮食安全始终是头等大事，化肥及农药行业的稳健发展不仅是化工产业的重要组 成部分，更是落实乡村振兴战略、提升农业综合生产能力的核心物质基础。上述政策文件的发布体现了 政府部门对于农业发展的高度重视，将为化肥、农药行业提供长期稳定的发展环境和转型升级的动力。 华福证券认为，随着海内外经济回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经 多年竞争和扩张，具有显著规模优势，且通过研发投入持续夯实成本护城河，核心竞争力显著 ...

商讯杂志 编辑|叶愔 2025年11月25日，信达证券固定收益首席分析师李一爽及其团队成员朱金保、张弛同时从信达证券离 职。随后在12月2日和3日，朱金保和张弛相继加入华福证券。 李一爽是固定收益领域的知名分析师，拥有复旦大学经济学硕士学位和9年宏观债券研究经验。他带领 的团队曾获得2024年12月新浪财经金麒麟分析师菁英分析师第一名。 同日，交通运输行业首席分析师匡培钦离职并加入国海证券。随后在2026年1月5日，其团队成员秦梦鸽 和陈依晗也离开信达证券，并于1月14日加入国海证券，完成了交运团队的整体迁徙。 金融工程团队也出现类似情况。信达证券研究所副所长、金融工程与金融产品研究中心负责人及首席分 析师于明明于2025年12月26日加入东吴证券。 近日，证券从业系统已查询不到周金铭、崔诗笛、孙石、吴彦锦等四名于明明原团队成员的信息，预计 已随于明明共同赴任东吴证券。 市场传闻称，中金公司可能合并包括信达证券在内的两家AMC系券商。2025年2月，财政部将所持中国 信达等资产股权划转至中央汇金，而中金公司大股东同样是中央汇金，这为合并传闻增添了可能性。 而这一传闻引发了在职员工对未来职业发展的担忧。 与此同 ...