Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in Q4 market share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, down 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry saw stable volume but declining prices in Q4 2025, with leading companies maintaining stable operations; however, the average selling price (ASP) has been under pressure, hindering premiumization [3] - Budweiser APAC, as a leader in high-end beer, is increasing investments in emerging channels like instant retail and O2O, with early signs of improvement as the decline in sales volume narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% in Q4 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from multiple factors supporting ASP improvement in 2026, including effective policies to boost consumer confidence and demand, alongside the release of benefits from high-end positioning and channel transformation [3] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The management has outlined three core outlooks for 2026: organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end home channels and O2O expansion in China [4] - The company plans to explore M&A and collaboration opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, supported by strong cash flow for external growth [4] - A high dividend policy continues, with a dividend yield of 5.6% providing a solid safety net for the stock price; the depreciation of the US dollar is also expected to positively impact financial statements [4]

Macro Insights - During the Spring Festival, significant overseas events occurred, including heightened tensions in the Middle East leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which complicates short-term market rate cut predictions [1] - In January, U.S. CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined due to falling food and gasoline prices, with expectations that tariff impacts on inflation are nearing their peak, potentially easing pressure on rate cuts [2] - Financial data at the start of the year showed stable performance, with direct financing growth driven by fiscal measures offsetting weak on-balance-sheet credit growth, and social financing growth remaining above 8% year-on-year [3] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to experience short-term trading opportunities due to calendar effects, but investors should remain cautious of high valuation risks in the medium term [4] - There is a need to address "involution" in competition to prevent unreasonable credit growth, with a preference for stable and realistic credit data over inflated growth figures [5] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed an overall price increase, with the China REITs index closing at 804.77, reflecting a weekly return of 0.32% [6] Banking Sector Insights - In January, loan growth was lower than expected, with corporate loans being the main contributor, while household loan demand may weaken in February due to seasonal factors [10] - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 2.38 trillion yuan in 2025, with a net interest margin growth of 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11] Strategic Metals Insights - The current environment of "de-globalization, stockpiling, and weakening dollar credit" is reminiscent of the 1970s, leading to a positive outlook on the valuation of strategic metals [12] Company-Specific Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with a projected net profit growth of 158% in 2026, supported by high utilization rates and price stability [13] - Lenovo Group's FY26 Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with strategic restructuring expected to help its ISG business return to profitability [14] - Budweiser APAC's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.073 billion, with a focus on regaining market share in China, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the beer industry in China, highlighting the dominance of major players in the market and the structure of the industry chain [1][5]. Industry Overview - The beer industry in China has a mature supply chain, with upstream suppliers providing raw materials, brewing equipment, and packaging [1]. - Major players in the midstream beer production segment include China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, Budweiser APAC, Chongqing Beer, and Yanjing Beer, which collectively hold approximately 80% of the market share [1][5]. Supply Chain Structure - Upstream suppliers consist of companies like Angel Yeast and Yongshuntai for raw materials, and CIMC Anrui and Lehui International for brewing equipment [5]. - The downstream market includes physical supermarkets such as Yonghui Supermarket and online retail platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and Suning [5]. Regional Distribution - The beer industry chain is primarily concentrated in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, followed by Zhejiang, Beijing, and Fujian [7]. - Midstream beer manufacturers are mainly located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Shandong, and Chongqing [8]. Investment Trends - A summary of investment activities from 2020 to 2026 in the beer industry indicates various funding rounds and investments in emerging companies [12]. - Notable investment events include multiple funding rounds for companies like Xuanbo Beer and Aigulu, with amounts ranging from millions to tens of millions of RMB [14].

格隆汇2月16日丨百威亚太(01876.HK)宣布，于2026年2月16日，公司根据其于2019年9月9日采纳并于 2023年5月8日修订的基于股份的报酬计划(「基于股份的报酬计划」)的条款，以自选股份(定义见下文) 形式向集团若干合资格雇员(「承授人」)授出最多1160.4万股公司禁售股份，并向若干承授人授出最多 1056万个公司受限制股份单位(「受限制股份单位」)。 ...

Group 1 - The company Budweiser APAC (01876) announced the grant of up to approximately 11.6043 million shares of company restricted stock to several eligible employees under its share-based remuneration plan adopted on September 9, 2019, and revised on May 8, 2023 [1] - Additionally, the company will grant up to approximately 10.5613 million restricted stock units to several grantees [1]

智通财经APP讯，百威亚太(01876)公布，于2026年2月16日，公司根据其于2019年9月9日采纳并于2023 年5月8日修订的基于股份的报酬计划的条款，以自选股份形式向集团若干合资格僱员授出最多约 1160.43万股公司禁售股份，并向若干承授人授出最多约1056.13万个公司受限制股份单位。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited 百威亞太控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1876） 授出自選股份及受限制股份單位 百威亞太控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）宣佈，於2026年2月16日， 本公司根據其於2019年9月9日採納並於2023年5月8日修訂的基於股份的報酬計 劃（「基於股份的報酬計劃」）的條款，以自選股份（定義見下文）形式向本集團若干 合資格僱員（「承授人」）授出最多11,604,324股本公司禁售股份，並向若干承授人 授出最多10,561,282個本公司受限制股份單位（「受限制股份單位」）。 本公司謹此提述(i)日期為2023年4月13日的公告、(ii)日期為2023年4月13日的通 函（「通函」）及(iii)日期為2023年5月8日的本公司股東週年大會的表決結果公告， 當中載有本公司股東批准（其中包括）就 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，已将百威亚太(01876)2025年业绩及2026年指引纳入该行的预测。该行下调对 其今明两年盈利预测分别12%及14%。大摩引入百威亚太2028年每股盈测6美仙，维持"增持"评级，延 展估值基础至2026年，目标价维持9港元。 鉴于中国境内家庭饮用渠道组合占比增加，该行将2026至2027年的平均售价预测下调2%至3%。平均售 价预测被下调导致2026及2027年的毛利率预测分别下调1.1及2个百分点。该行亦上调销售、一般及行政 费用比率预测，反映在中国渠道转变的投资，以及东部及西部地区的商业投资。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing lower-than-expected revenue and normalized EBITDA forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are projected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are expected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 167 million, respectively [1] - The company's normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] Group 2: Net Profit and Non-Recurring Items - The net profit for the period was USD 489 million, impacted by a non-recurring item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea, which is considered a one-time factor [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been increased by 2% to 3%, reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation; however, a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated, potentially delaying until the second half of 2026 [1] - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been reduced by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, leading to a decrease in EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are expected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are projected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 0.167 billion [1] Group 2 - The company's normalized EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] - The net profit for the period is reported at USD 489 million, influenced by a one-time item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea [1] - UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for Budweiser from 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 3%, mainly reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation, although a recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated to slow down and may be delayed until the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3 - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been lowered by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, resulting in a reduction of EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]