仍下跌，二手房热度向新房传导不畅，核心原因在于价格与需求结构的 错配。 Q&A 2 月楼市销售数据及市场趋势解读 20260228 摘要 2026 年 1-2 月新房累计销售同比下降约 30%，各梯队房企降幅差异不 大，前三强降幅控制在 20%以内。金茂受益于积极拿地，2 月单月同比 增长约 20%，多数标杆房企销售承压，万科、华发、越秀同比降幅超 50%。 房企销售压力与拿地减少高度相关，除金茂、中海外，多数企业因货值 约束，短期业绩增长空间有限。2 月重点城市新房成交同比下降 28%， 一线城市降幅更大，三四线城市部分城市数据异常抬升需进一步核实。 1-2 月新房价格总体稳定，促销力度收敛，"返乡置业"促销不显著。 预计 3-4 月"小阳春"期间，新房供应放量但同比仍可能下跌，市场竞 争加剧，房企或加大促销力度，呈现"量升价跌"特征。 1-2 月二手房累计同比增长约 2%，高于新房市场。核心城市二手房热 度自 2025 年 12 月开始延续，成交量维持高位，市场情绪改善，部分 城市挂牌量下降，价格企稳。 上海 2 月二手房价格指数环比微增，为 2025 年二季度以来首次，体现 价格端边际企稳信号。2 月二 ...

2026 地产股怎么选？空间多大？20260227 摘要 NAV/RNV 估值框架在市场左侧阶段提供基于在手资源净清算价值的估 值基准，通过自下而上测算项目销售价格、土地成本等，并经两种方法 校核，确保可靠性，为个股提供性价比刻度。 传统 PB 估值因账面构成差异大而失真，NAV 框架通过统一口径测算各 公司在手资源净清算价值，揭示个股间合理估值的巨大差异，部分公司 隐含合理 PB 可达 1.4 倍，而另一些可能仅 0.4-0.6 倍。 以"市值比 NAV 的折让"作为性价比指针，截至 2 月 9 日，港股中华润 置地、中国海外发展、越秀地产、弘阳地产、保利置业折让较高，A 股 招商蛇口、滨江股份相对不便宜。 若市场转向"发展视角"，PE 框架评估企业估值上限与弹性，通过两步 走测算：评估 2027 年后潜在利润水平，并赋予估值倍数。利润结算滞 后，需回溯 23、24 年拿地与项目结构，按项目年份拆分利润率。 常态化净利润率测算分两步：分层刻画不同拿地阶段项目盈利表现，对 比 2021 年前、2022 年后、2024 年后获取土地对应项目净利润率变化 趋势，并下调 1~2 个百分点覆盖额外成本。 Q&A 从去 ...

2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 优质港房财报现积极信号，打开股价上 行空间 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2 周度观点：新鸿基地产业绩增长&股息提升，优质港房报表端积极信号逐步显现。本周新鸿基地产公布2026财年半年报，2026财年上半年 收入同比增长32%，归母净利润同比增长36.2%，撇除投资物业公平值变动影响后的核心归母净利润同比增长16.7%；中期股息0.98港元/ 股，同比增长3%。同时公司紧抓中国香港楼市修复契机，报告期内新增多宗地块有望充分受益香港楼市回升，实际融资成本进一步下降 到3%。发展物业减值拨备由上年同期的10.8亿港币降至0，投资物业公允价值变动由上年同期-28.8亿港元缩减至本期-13.1亿港元，侧面 体现香港楼市回暖及商业零售逐步好转。 三重对比港房股价仍有空间，重申全年看好港资房企。我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿基地产为例，目前PB为0.68倍，仍低 于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.77PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底；2）上轮香港楼市调整于2003年见底， 新 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W8：上海进一步放松限购，关注小阳春市场表现 上海发布楼市新政，政策效用或持续数月，全国层面仍待中央政策的落位。 2 月 25 日上海发布楼市新政，政策主要包括限购政策放松、公积金额度 上浮、房产税免征范围扩大。非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海连 续缴纳社保或个税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环 内限购 1 套住房；连续缴纳满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 2 套住房；持 居住证满 5 年及以上的，在全市范围内限购 1 套住房。整体来看，政策围 绕新上海人（包括缴纳社保和未缴纳社保的）、公积金额度提升预算展开， 预计对刚需、刚改都有提振作用，进而去试图打开置换的链条。基于上海 当前基本面（有所下降的二手房挂牌、下跌过的房价、高企的新房库存）， 我们预计政策对市场有效烘托时长是 3-4 个月，上海小阳春成交会起量， 价格整体相对平稳，二手房议价空间收窄，进一步消耗二手挂牌和新房存 量，改善供需结构。上海城市维度政策或就此出尽，而且上海城市地位有 一定特殊，上海城市政策对全国作用相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

核心城市二手房市场累计销售同比微增 典型房企2月实现销售操盘金额1234.2亿元。 | | | | 2026年1-2月 ·中国房地产企业 | | Y = = 可编 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操盘销售金额、 | | 销售面积 | | | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘金额 (亿元) | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘面积 (万平方米) | | 1 | 保利发展 | 236. 0 | | 保利发展 | -2111.0 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 218.4 | 2 | 绿城中国 | 90.0 | | 3 | 未润量拆 | 205.9 | 3 | 万科地产 | 79. 1 | | 4 | 绿城中国 | 183.0 | | 龙湖集团 | 78.5 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 145.3 | 5 | 中海地产 | 77.9 | | ୧ | 建发房产 | 138.4 | 6 | 招商蛇口 | 71.6 | | 7 | 中国金茂 | 114.6 | | 绿地控股 | 71.3 | | 8 | 万科地产 | 84.6 V | 8 | 天润量 | 63.1 | ...

当日13时许，泰来阳光项目置业顾问陆文俊刚送走一批咨询客户，迎来片刻休息的时间。连日来，一到展会 现场，陆文俊就开启忙碌模式。从户型格局、区位配套到优惠政策，他一遍遍为咨询者细致讲解。 市民了解楼盘信息。 本报讯（西海新闻记者 吴予琴 摄影报道）2月27日，2026西宁新春住房展示交易会进入第7天，记者走访现场 了解到，连续多日的火热人气让多家房企展位前咨询不断，热门楼盘每天接待购房者十余组。 与泰来阳光主打的性价比路线不同，定位偏改善性住房的绿城·锦玉园项目展位同样客流不断。工作人员张成 玉介绍，去年的房博会，主要围绕项目一期销售。这次房交会，一期开始清盘的同时，开发商推出二期项 目，产品线更丰富了。 在房地产投资领域，"十四五"期间，西宁房地产开发投资年均增速达到9.7%，高于固定资产投资整体增速。 这一数据不仅反映了房地产市场的活跃程度，也表明了市场对西宁房地产行业发展前景的信心。大量资金的 涌入，推动了房地产项目的开发建设，为市场提供了丰富的房源，满足不同层次消费者的住房需求。 "今天看了好几个楼盘，感觉选择还挺多的，价格和优惠力度也不错。回去我要和家人好好商量，争取尽快定 下来。"说罢，傅先生又快步 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's new real estate policies, announced on February 25, aim to stabilize the housing market and support reasonable housing demand through seven key adjustments, effective from February 26, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policies include adjustments in housing purchase restrictions, public housing fund loans, and personal housing property tax regulations [1][2]. - Non-local residents can now purchase homes in the outer ring of Shanghai with just one year of social insurance or personal income tax payments, a reduction from previous requirements [3][4]. - The maximum public housing fund loan for first-time homebuyers has increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, with potential increases for families with multiple children and green buildings [4][5]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the announcement, there was a noticeable increase in customer inquiries and visits to various real estate projects, indicating a positive market reaction [1][6]. - Sales teams reported immediate sales following the policy announcement, with projects like Jinmao Puyuan and Jianfa Haichen seeing significant increases in customer engagement [6][7]. - Analysts predict that these policies will lead to a "small spring" in the Shanghai real estate market, potentially stabilizing prices and increasing transaction volumes in the coming months [1][9]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The policies are seen as a comprehensive approach to address various housing needs, including those of non-local residents and families with multiple children, thus broadening the support base [5][10]. - The adjustments are expected to not only benefit Shanghai's market but also serve as a model for other cities, potentially influencing national real estate trends [10].

受春节假期网签暂停影响，即时成交数据虽有滞后，但案场认筹、定房、锁房量部分高品质住宅热度不减，市场活跃度显著提升。潍坊市"惠购迎春"系列 促消费政策持续发力，各大房企同步推出特价房、成交礼包、车位优惠、物业费减免等活动，有效提振置业信心。 与此同时，春节期间，各大楼盘联动本地房产达人，通过直播探盘、云端答疑、一对一精准咨询等方式，让无法亲临现场的购房者"云看房"。 位于潍城的绿城.桂语朝阳、奎文的橙园、高新的恒信.春风合著项目人气爆棚，销量较往常显著增加，潍城绿城.桂语朝阳营销负责人史成龙说："今年的 客户不同往年，从到访和成交的数据反映出今年的客户大多刚需、婚房需求较为集中，成交的周期会比较短，改善的客户没有那么迫切，成交周期也会较 长，客户更看重品牌房企、实景现房、学区配套与交付保障等。" 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点马凤丽 2026年春节假期，潍坊楼市迎来了一波"暖流"。潍坊各大楼盘"不打烊"，叠加返乡置业潮与潍坊市"迎新春、换新房"——2026高品质住宅展销月新春购房 优惠政策，全市房地产市场到访量明显回升，意向成交稳步上涨。 这个春节，潍坊的售楼处比往年热闹了许多。奎文、高新、潍城等核心区域成为看房热点，热门 ...