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证券研究报告 把握AI主线，重视新科技 ——计算机行业2026春季投资策略 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 孙业亮/刘聪颖 中邮证券研究所 计算机团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-25 投资要点 AI大模型：2025年，中国AI大模型产品形态进入成熟期，成为市场爆发的直接推动力，低成本、高性能 的技术基础形成了从底层支撑市场高速增长的关键条件，为MaaS和企业大模型的广泛应用创造了可持续 的商业化环境；多模态模型的快速迭代将AI应用从单一文本生成扩展至图像、视频、语音等复合场景，提 升了模型的可用性与商业化潜力；同时，各大厂商通过推出通用基座模型、行业专属模型及低门槛API服 务，构建了完整的产品矩阵，极大降低了企业和开发者的接入成本；企业对AI价值的认知日益成熟，数字 化和智能化转型需求持续增长，推动客户需求从概念验证阶段进入规模化生产阶段，企业对于大模型的调 用频次和覆盖场景不断增加，从而带动MaaS平台和AI大模型解决方案市场进入了"结构性放量"周期。 AI应用：toB端，AI Agent是大模型重要的商业落地形式，已在客服、代码开发、营销、数据分析、金 融服务等多行业、多场景实现服务落地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite network is being established, and direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services will be crucial for the integration of space and ground communication. This service allows mobile phones to connect directly to communication satellites without intermediary devices, providing voice, text, and data exchange services [3][4]. - The report identifies three technical routes for mobile direct connection, with the 3GPP NTN standard recognized as the future direction. The three routes include: 1. "New Phone + Old Satellite" - integrating dedicated satellite communication modules into smartphones, relying on existing satellite systems [11]. 2. "Old Phone + New Satellite" - using existing mobile communication technology to connect current 4G/5G phones directly to satellites [11]. 3. "New Phone + New Satellite" - following the 3GPP NTN standard, creating new low Earth orbit constellations that work with ground 5G networks [11][9]. - The global mobile direct connection industry is advancing rapidly, with significant developments from international players like SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile. In January, a partnership between Globe Telecom and Starlink marked the launch of DTC services in Southeast Asia, covering approximately 4% of the population in areas without ground network coverage [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mobile direct connection satellites as a key entry point for connecting the general public to space-based networks, highlighting the expected growth in demand for phased array antennas, terminal communication chips, and modules [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing establishment of low Earth orbit satellite networks and the role of mobile direct connection satellites in expanding communication capabilities, addressing gaps in ground network coverage [3][4]. Technical Routes - Three main technical routes for mobile direct connection are outlined, with the 3GPP NTN standard being the most promising for future development [9][11]. International Developments - Significant progress in the mobile direct connection sector is noted, with various international companies making strides in D2D technology and partnerships [14][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong outlook for the mobile direct connection satellite sector within China's commercial aerospace industry, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this area [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The satellite internet sector is transitioning from a communication hub to a computing intermediary, with a significant increase in the number of satellites reported globally by the end of 2025 [3] - SpaceX's application to deploy up to 1 million satellites aims to create a dual barrier of "physical space + spectrum resources," forcing global space powers to reassess the strategic value of orbital assets [3] - The shift to orbital computing could alleviate the energy crisis faced by ground-based AI data centers, utilizing near-infinite solar energy and natural cooling in a vacuum environment [3] - The aggressive satellite deployment plan by SpaceX is expected to catalyze the domestic industry, enhancing China's position in the satellite internet market and accelerating the transition from policy-driven to market-driven growth [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications sector has shown a performance range from -34% to +103% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified periods [2] Related Research - The report references several studies that highlight the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the satellite internet and AI sectors, indicating a growing interest and investment potential in these areas [3] Suggested Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring several companies, including Xinke Mobile, Aerospace Huanyu, Aerospace Electronics, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the developments in the satellite internet industry [3]

Group 1 - The core issue is that Zhenyou Technology has been banned from participating in military procurement activities for one year due to providing false materials, which has led to a significant drop in stock price and raised market concerns [1] - The company is currently assessing the impact of this incident on its 2026 revenue and is reviewing internal processes for rectification [1] - On February 9, the stock price fell nearly 10%, closing at 40.30 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.134 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The stock price showed significant volatility over the past week, with a cumulative decline of 9.40% and a minimum price of 40.01 yuan [2] - The company released a performance forecast on January 30, 2026, indicating an expected net loss of 46 million to 69 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 509 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.78%, with a gross margin of 45.32% [3]

Group 1 - Shenzhen Zhenyou Technology Co., Ltd. won a procurement project from Huaneng Coal Industry Co., Ltd. with a bid amount of 3.5886 million yuan [1][2][3] - In 2024, Zhenyou Technology reported an operating revenue of 952 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.60%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 27 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 131.70% [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in operating revenue to 350 million yuan, with a negative growth rate of 6.82%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -48 million yuan, indicating a drastic decline of 715.80% [2][3] Group 2 - The company operates in the information technology industry, with its main product types including command and dispatch systems (40.72%), centralized office systems (29.75%), technical and maintenance services (18.65%), core network systems (9.86%), and other businesses (1.02%) [2][3]

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Cautiously Optimistic" with a focus on operators with sustained profit growth and enhanced network value, as well as companies benefiting from traffic growth and continuous technological innovation [6][41]. Core Insights - The communication sector experienced a decline of 6.73% from February 2 to February 6, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.39 percentage points [3][13]. - The sector's cumulative decline for 2026 is 1.63%, ranking it 27th among 30 sectors [3][14]. - The TTM PE ratio for the communication industry is 26.41, placing it in the 36.08 percentile [3][14]. - The smartphone market in China saw a total shipment of 307 million units in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, with 5G phones accounting for 86.9% of shipments [4][36]. - Global smartphone shipments grew by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, marking the highest level since 2021 [4][38]. Summary by Sections Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector's performance was notably poor, with a significant drop in stock prices and a low ranking among other sectors [3][13]. - A total of 119 companies are listed in the communication sector, with 30 companies seeing stock price increases and 88 experiencing declines during the review period [3][14]. Industry News - As of December 2025, China has built 4.838 million 5G base stations, with internet penetration exceeding 80% [17]. - The number of internet users reached 1.125 billion, with a significant increase in generative AI users [17][20]. - The production of optical cables in China decreased by 5.3% in 2025, although the decline rate has slowed compared to previous years [20]. Weekly Focus: Consumer Electronics Data - The smartphone market in China is experiencing structural adjustments, with a notable decline in December 2025 shipments [5][40]. - Despite the overall decline, the proportion of 5G phones continues to rise, indicating a maturation of 5G technology [5][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism for the communication industry, emphasizing the importance of profit growth and technological innovation for future investments [6][41].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its market presence and developing related technology products in the quantum communication field, having secured multiple projects with a key client [2] Group 1: Project Developments - In 2023, the company won the "ZB Quantum Secret Communication Experiment Project Voice Gateway" from China Telecom Quantum Technology Co., Ltd [2] - In 2024, the company has again secured a project with the same client for the "Quantum Secret Communication VV Intercommunication (Transcoding Gateway Development)" [2] Group 2: Product Focus - The company's products and services in the quantum communication sector primarily focus on critical gateway devices within quantum secure communication networks [2] - The company is committed to actively monitoring the evolution of quantum communication technology and industry standards to continuously enhance its product matrix [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges a recent procurement issue related to military contracts due to a bidding personnel error, which involved the incorrect declaration of equipment from other penalized suppliers. The impact on the company's overall operations is deemed limited due to the low revenue contribution from military procurement. Group 1 - The procurement issue was caused by a work error during the bidding process, leading to insufficient verification of bidding materials [1] - Military procurement revenue is minimal, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue in 2023 and 2024, and less than 2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company maintains that its overall business operations are normal, and previously signed contracts can still be executed as planned [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes that the impact of the military procurement issue on its operations is limited and will not affect its ongoing business [1] - During the suspension period, procurement activities unrelated to the material engineering services are expected to continue normally [1] - The company is taking the issue seriously, conducting a special self-inspection, and preparing for an appeal [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenyou Technology (SH688418) experienced a nearly 10% drop in stock price following a military procurement announcement regarding the company's discredit due to violations in bidding practices, including the submission of false materials [1] Group 1: Company Actions and Consequences - The military procurement network announced a one-year ban on Zhenyou Technology from participating in military material engineering service procurement activities due to the violations [1] - During the ban period, the company's legal representative, Wu Minhua, and other enterprises he controls are also prohibited from participating in military procurement activities [1] - The company plans to conduct a comprehensive review of its internal operational processes in specialized business areas to ensure future compliance and proper conduct [1] Group 2: Financial Impact and Response - The company is currently assessing the potential impact of the penalties on its revenue projections for 2026 and will provide updates through official announcements or Q&A formats [1]