Market Overview - On July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, the ChiNext Index went up by 0.34%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.60% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 2,603 stocks rose, accounting for 48.15%, while 2,567 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net outflow of 22.987 billion yuan throughout the day [1] - The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 11.028 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 2.009 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 300 constituent stocks had a net inflow of 2.142 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 primary industries classified by Shenwan, 22 industries saw an increase, with the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors leading with gains of 2.10% and 1.36%, respectively [1] - The media and electronics sectors had the largest declines, with drops of 0.98% and 0.49% [1] Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - The non-ferrous metals industry had the highest net inflow of capital, totaling 3.794 billion yuan, and rose by 2.10% [1] - The non-bank financial sector saw a net inflow of 0.897 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.33% [1] - The electronics industry had the largest net outflow, with a total of 8.341 billion yuan and a decline of 0.49% [1] - The computer sector experienced a net outflow of 4.375 billion yuan, despite a daily increase of 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,835 stocks had net inflows, with 661 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 70 stocks with inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Northern Rare Earth, which rose by 9.87% with a net inflow of 2.109 billion yuan [2] - Other notable inflows included China Oil Capital and Wanhua Chemical, with net inflows of 1.150 billion yuan and 0.849 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, 101 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Changshan Beiming, Shenghong Technology, and Hengbao shares leading the outflows at 1.302 billion yuan, 1.087 billion yuan, and 0.716 billion yuan, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical with a target price of 82.62 CNY [6][18]. Core Viewpoints - The TDI market is experiencing an upward trend in product prices due to a reduction in overseas supply, particularly following an incident at Covestro's German facility, which has led to a significant price increase in the domestic market [1][2]. - The global TDI supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve in the short term, especially with the upcoming peak demand season and domestic maintenance activities [2][3]. - The TDI industry is witnessing a continuous optimization of its structure, with a trend of production capacity shifting towards China, enhancing the competitive advantage of domestic leading enterprises like Wanhua Chemical [3]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Covestro's TDI production capacity in Germany is 300,000 tons/year, accounting for 55% of Europe's and 9% of global capacity. The incident has created a supply gap in Europe, which may benefit Chinese exports [2]. - In 2024, global TDI demand is projected at 2.5 million tons, with a capacity of 3.473 million tons, leading to an industry operating rate of approximately 72% [2]. Industry Capacity Trends - The global TDI capacity is expected to increase to 3.977 million tons by 2027, with China's share rising to 2.35 million tons/year, representing 59% of the total [3]. - Wanhua Chemical's capacity is projected to reach 1.42 million tons/year by 2027, increasing its global market share to 36% [3]. Company Performance - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 182.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4%, but a decline in net profit due to weak product demand [17]. - The company is expected to benefit from new projects and improving supply-demand conditions, leading to a potential recovery in profitability [18].

化工板块全天强势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后持续上行，尾盘再度拉升，盘 中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.28%，截至收盘，涨1.95%。 成份股方面，行业龙头万华化学全天狂飙，截至收盘，大涨8.29%，肥料、石化等细分板块亦表现不 俗，截至收盘，华鲁恒升大涨超5%，新凤鸣涨超4%，华峰化学、荣盛石化、盐湖股份等多股涨超3%。 资金面上，基础化工板块今日大举吸金。数据显示，截至收盘，基础化工板块单日获主力资金净流入额 达到62.37亿元，净流入额在30个中信一级行业中高居第2。 | 序号 | | 名称 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005003 | 有色金属(中信) | 109.64亿 | | 2 | | Cl005006 基础化工(中信) | 62.37亿 | | 3 | | Cl005012 国防军工(中信) | 43.23亿 | | 4 | CI005027 | | 26.81亿 | | ਦ | CI005019 | 食品饮料(中信) | 21.32亿 | 消息面上，近日，欧洲化工巨头科思创位于德国多尔马根的工厂发生电气 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up by 0.34. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,710.55 billion yuan, an increase of 316.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2]. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with significant gains in lithium and rare earth stocks. The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday price increase of 2.64%, closing up 2.15%, marking a new high for the year [4][5]. - The chemical sector also performed strongly, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching a maximum intraday increase of 2.28% and closing up 1.95%. The price surge was driven by TDI price increases due to supply shortages [12][14]. - The food and beverage sector, particularly leading liquor stocks, also showed strength, with the Food ETF (515710) closing up 1.16% [1][2]. Investment Insights - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that under the "anti-involution" policy, the expectations for the midstream manufacturing sector are shifting towards 2026, creating more short-term investment opportunities. The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has reduced the risk of a deep recession, enhancing visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][3]. - Guojin Securities highlighted that domestic manufacturing companies' capital returns are expected to stabilize and improve, making A-shares more attractive compared to overseas markets. They recommend focusing on upstream resource products, capital goods, and intermediate goods that benefit from both domestic policies and rising overseas demand [3][4]. Rare Earth and Lithium Market Dynamics - The rare earth sector is experiencing a surge due to several favorable factors, including government actions to secure resource safety and the discovery of new rare earth minerals in Inner Mongolia. The leading company, Northern Rare Earth, is expected to see a net profit increase of up to 2014% in the first half of the year [5][6]. - In the lithium market, a recent production halt due to regulatory issues at a lithium mining company in Qinghai has raised concerns about supply constraints. This, combined with a rebound in lithium carbonate futures prices, has led to increased market interest in the sector [6][7]. Chemical Sector Outlook - The chemical sector is benefiting from a supply crunch in TDI, with major players like Wanhua Chemical expected to gain significantly from rising TDI prices. The company is the largest global supplier of MDI and TDI, with plans to expand its production capacity [12][16]. - Analysts predict that the chemical sector will enter a new upward cycle due to improved demand and supply-side adjustments driven by domestic policy changes [17][18]. Hong Kong Market Trends - The Hong Kong market is showing strength, particularly in the technology sector, with significant gains in internet stocks. The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) rose by 1.61%, reflecting strong performance from major tech companies [18][21]. - The innovative drug sector is also gaining traction, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (520880) seeing a cumulative increase of 58.95% in the first half of the year, outperforming other indices [23][24].

Group 1 - Propylene (C3H6) is a crucial low-carbon olefin used primarily in the production of polypropylene, acrylonitrile, isopropanol, acetone, and propylene oxide, reflecting the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][9][19] - The global propylene production capacity exceeded 171 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 2%-6% over the past decade, primarily driven by Northeast Asia, especially China [12][19] - The propylene production process includes steam cracking, catalytic cracking, methanol-to-propylene, and propane dehydrogenation (PDH), with PDH becoming a significant source of propylene alongside steam cracking [9][10][19] Group 2 - The global propylene capacity utilization rate has been declining, expected to drop to around 71% by 2025, a decrease of 10 percentage points compared to five years ago [12][19] - In 2025, China's propylene capacity is projected to account for approximately 39% of the global total, with the main downstream products being polypropylene (PP), which will dominate the demand [19][20] - The domestic propylene effective capacity is estimated to be around 69.73 million tons in 2024, with a significant concentration in the East China region, accounting for over 56% of the total capacity [25][26][38] Group 3 - The domestic propylene consumption has been increasing annually but remains below the capacity growth rate, with the main downstream consumers being PP granules, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile [38][42] - The import dependency for domestic propylene is gradually decreasing, with most imports coming from South Korea, while exports remain minimal [42][49] - The profitability of PDH production is highly sensitive to propane prices, with recent cost optimization efforts reducing energy consumption and processing fees [9][49]

Group 1 - The acrylic acid concept sector increased by 2.35%, ranking third in terms of growth among concept sectors, with nine stocks rising, including Shenyang Chemical, which hit the daily limit, and Wanhua Chemical, Huayi Group, and Benli Technology, which rose by 8.29%, 7.41%, and 4.28% respectively [1][2] - The main capital inflow into the acrylic acid concept sector was 875 million yuan, with six stocks receiving net inflows, led by Wanhua Chemical with a net inflow of 849 million yuan, followed by Guoen Co., Shenyang Chemical, and Satellite Chemical [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Guoen Co., Wanhua Chemical, and Shenyang Chemical were 12.53%, 12.32%, and 12.09% respectively, indicating strong investor interest in these stocks [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the acrylic acid concept sector included Wanhua Chemical, which rose by 8.29%, and Shenyang Chemical, which increased by 10.05%, while Guoen Co. experienced a slight decline of 0.29% [3][4] - The overall performance of the acrylic acid concept sector was positive, contrasting with other sectors such as animal vaccines and avian influenza, which saw declines of 0.96% and 0.90% respectively [2][4] - The trading volume and turnover rates for the leading stocks in the acrylic acid sector were notable, with Wanhua Chemical achieving a turnover rate of 3.77% and Shenyang Chemical at 8.40% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [8] Core Insights - The recent fire incident at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany has led to supply disruptions in key chemicals, including chlorine, which is critical for TDI production. This incident is expected to impact TDI supply significantly [7] - TDI prices have been rising due to limited supply and strong overseas demand, with prices in East China reaching 13,700-14,200 CNY/ton as of July 17, reflecting an increase of over 2,000 CNY/ton since July [7] - China's TDI exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, driven by tariff incentives and rising demand in Southeast Asia [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights structural opportunities in the organic silicon industry following Dow's closure of its UK plant [3] - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain its favorable performance due to anticipated earnings growth [3] Recent Events - Covestro's fire incident has caused a significant impact on its production capabilities, particularly affecting TDI and other related products [7] - The TDI supply chain is facing constraints due to multiple factors, including maintenance shutdowns and increased export orders [7] Market Dynamics - The report notes that overseas TDI production capacity is shrinking, providing a competitive advantage for Chinese companies in the global market [7] - The demand growth in Southeast Asia is projected to remain between 6-8% annually, making it a core market for Chinese TDI exports [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the tightening TDI supply and rising prices, specifically mentioning Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced an overall upward trend on July 18, with major indices showing slight increases, but there was a significant outflow of funds from the market, indicating potential concerns among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534.48 points, up 0.5%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10913.84 points, up 0.37%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2277.15 points, up 0.34% [1]. - The total trading volume of both markets reached 15710.43 billion yuan, an increase of 316.74 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds from the two markets exceeded 250 billion yuan, with a total net outflow of 256.41 billion yuan for the day [2][3]. - The net outflow of main funds from the CSI 300 was 35.7 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 121 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest net inflow of funds included: - Non-ferrous metals: 64.11 billion yuan, with notable inflow into Northern Rare Earth [6]. - Banks: 27.70 billion yuan, with significant inflow into Agricultural Bank of China [6]. - Defense and military industry: 22.13 billion yuan, with inflow into Hongdu Aviation [6]. - The sectors with the highest net outflow of funds included: - Electronics: -167.96 billion yuan, with significant outflow from Shenghong Technology [6]. - Machinery: -77.52 billion yuan, with notable outflow from Nanxing Shares [6]. - Electric power equipment: -73.50 billion yuan, with outflow from Mate Meter [6]. Group 4: Institutional Activity - The top stocks with net institutional buying included: - Lisheng Pharmaceutical: 6301.15 million yuan, up 4.68% [9]. - Huaxin Environmental: 5471.91 million yuan, up 15.05% [9]. - Wanyuantong: 4142.40 million yuan, up 11.00% [9]. - The stocks with significant institutional selling included: - Chunfeng Power: -19649.37 million yuan, down 7.46% [9]. Group 5: Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings and target prices for selected stocks include: - Hangzhou Bank: Buy rating with a target price of 17.5 yuan, current price 17.25 yuan, potential upside of 1.45% [10]. - Xiaoshangcheng: Buy rating with a target price of 21.64 yuan, current price 21.05 yuan, potential upside of 2.80% [10]. - Zhejiang Longsheng: Buy rating with a target price of 12 yuan, current price 10.28 yuan, potential upside of 16.73% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective rise on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite mixed performances across sectors [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - A total of 2600 stocks rose while over 2500 stocks fell, reflecting a divergence in stock performance [1]. Sector Analysis - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced significant gains, with notable stocks such as Jiuwu Gaoke hitting a 20% limit up, and Huaxin Environmental Protection rising over 15% [3][4]. - The lithium extraction sector also saw a rise of 3.30%, while the gaming sector faced declines, with stocks like Ice River Network dropping over 4% [4][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector surged in the afternoon, with stocks like Borui Pharmaceutical increasing over 14% [5]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and computers, while there was a net outflow from electronics, biomedicine, and light manufacturing sectors [8]. - Specific stocks that attracted significant net inflows included Northern Rare Earth (20.63 billion yuan), China National Petroleum Capital (10.4 billion yuan), and Wanhua Chemical (6.89 billion yuan) [9]. - Conversely, stocks like Changshan Beiming, Shenghong Technology, and Hengbao shares faced substantial net outflows of 11.87 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively [10]. Institutional Insights - Jianghai Securities noted that market hotspots are dispersed, potentially leading to a structural market trend, while the overall index uptrend remains intact despite significant individual stock performance variations [12]. - CITIC Securities expressed optimism regarding investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, citing macroeconomic stabilization and liquidity release as positive factors for market activity [12].